Feb. 12: Miami has officially announced the Paddack signing. Right-hander Ronny Henriquez was placed on the 60-day IL to open up room on the 40-man. Henriquez had internal brace surgery in December and is expected to miss the 2026 season.
Feb. 9: The Marlins are reportedly in agreement on a one-year, $4MM guarantee with back-end starter Chris Paddack. The Boras Corporation client can earn an additional $500K in performance bonuses. Miami, which had been looking to add an affordable starter after trading Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster once the signing is official.
Paddack returns to the organization that drafted him in the eighth round in 2015. He hadn’t advanced beyond Low-A before the Marlins traded him to the Padres for closer Fernando Rodney at the following summer’s deadline. It ended up being a win for San Diego, albeit not as convincing as it once seemed to be. Rodney struggled to a 5.89 ERA over 39 appearances with Miami. Paddack’s climb to the big leagues was set back by Tommy John surgery that occurred almost immediately after the trade, but the righty reemerged as a strong prospect and broke camp in 2019.
He had a very good rookie season, pitching to a 3.33 earned run average across 26 starts. Paddack looked like a mid-rotation arm at the time, but his numbers quickly regressed. He struggled between 2020-21, and the Padres traded him to Minnesota in a deal for reliever Taylor Rogers on Opening Day 2022. Paddack blew out a few starts into his debut season with the Twins, requiring his second Tommy John surgery in the process. He was limited to two relief outings at the tail end of the ’23 campaign.
Paddack’s 2024 return season was again hampered by arm issues, most notably a forearm strain that shut him down shortly after the All-Star Break. He avoided the injured list last year for the first time in five seasons but simply didn’t pitch well. Paddack had an ERA pushing 5.00 over 21 starts when the Twins traded him to the Tigers at the deadline. He was hit hard in three of his first five outings in Detroit and moved to the bullpen in early September. Paddack returned to the rotation for two starts to close the regular season and was scratched from the Tigers’ playoff rosters.
The 30-year-old finished the season with a 5.35 earned run average across 33 outings. He logged a career-high 158 innings but allowed 94 earned runs, the most in the American League. Paddack’s formerly above-average strikeout rates dropped to a disappointing 16.7% as his swinging strike percentage fell below 10% for the first time. He has always struggled with the home run ball and hasn’t had the swing-and-miss stuff to make up for that in recent years.
Paddack’s four-seam fastball averaged 93.7 mph last season. That’s down a touch from its peak in 2021 but a near match for the velocity he showed during his career-best rookie year. The bigger issue is that opponents teed off on the changeup — a .263 average and .491 slugging mark — that had been his best pitch. Paddack has never had a good breaking ball or an overpowering heater, so he’ll need the changeup to be much more effective if he’s to recapture mid-rotation form.
The righty has always had excellent control. He has never walked even 6% of opponents in a season. Paddack continues to attack the strike zone but the stuff was far too hittable last season. Pitching his home games at loanDepot Park could help mitigate some of the home run issues. Paddack enters camp with a strong chance to open the year as Clayton McCullough‘s fifth starter.
Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara are locked into the top two spots. Max Meyer and Braxton Garrett are each entering camp healthy, though both pitchers are coming back from surgeries. Janson Junk, Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur are depth options on the 40-man roster, while top prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling loom in the upper minors. Snelling pitched very well over 11 Triple-A starts last year and could break camp. White only made two starts at the top minor league level and seems destined to begin the season in Triple-A.
Those pitchers all have a higher ceiling, but everyone in the back-end mix has questions about their injury history or lack of MLB experience. That’s also the case for Paddack, but it’s an affordable move to add another starter after the Cabrera and Weathers trades. It’s a similar move to last year’s $3.5MM signing of Cal Quantrill shortly before camps opened.
The signing brings Miami’s payroll estimate to $72MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s a little above last year’s $65MM Opening Day mark, but Miami ranked dead last in spending. They’re again projected for the lowest team payroll in the majors, although they’re probably ahead of the Guardians in actual 2026 salary given the deferrals on Cleveland’s recent José Ramírez extension.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the agreement and $4MM salary plus $500K in bonuses. Craig Mish of SportsGrid confirmed it was a one-year major league deal.
Image courtesy of Matt Krohn, Imagn Images.
Huge fan of this move
So much fun. Hoping he gets back on track.
Watching Chris Paddack pitch is about as much fun as folding a fitted sheet.
Back to the team that drafted him. Interesting.
Solid move for Fish.
Chris Paddack is a poor mans Cal Quantrill. No other takers so he comes to Miami.He will definitely say he loves South Fla and expects a big yr. A good yr for him is 3 wins.
Thanks for the intel. I’m sure it was 100% accurate
Can’t he have opinions.
Only right ones
Ol’ Padlock
This is fun! I like this. Would love another vet reliever and an extra bat but solid arm so all the youth and injuries don’t get run into the ground immediately
Reclamation project. Low risk, high reward.
Looking at his stats, I don’t understand how he has been in the league for as long as he has been. Still getting MLB deal for $4 million with incentives today. Not even a lefty.
Meh. I’d rather had Quantrill back (probably for less money). Same goes for Quintana, who remains insigned.
I am a bit surprised they didn’t wait until late spring training to make this kind of move. Maybe there is something going on with some of the long-absent arms (Garrett, Meyer)?
Late spring means he wouldn’t be ready to open the season with the team. Now means a full training camp and ready to be on the opening day roster
They have lots of alternatives if he wasn’t ready to be on the opening day roster.When the best excuses are that the others don’t have major league experience, or were injured in the past, that is weak. They are talking a number 5 starter, not top of rotation. If anything, Paddocks ML experience should count against him, compared to the others.
Randy “the uber driver with sweet facial hair” Dobnak had better results as a twin than paddack
Randy Goggles
Welp, he’s affordable alright. That he is.
Am I missing something? How did he even get a major league deal nevermind 4MM with incentives. Paddock hasn’t been good since his rookie year in 2019.
Heck you can’t even argue that he’s being signed to eat innings when he’s averaged only 76 IP since 2021.
And he was god awful for the Tigers last year. Want to know who the single biggest contributor to the Tigers historic collapse was? It was Chris Paddack more than any other single player. Seemed like he was dimed every time.
Those liking this move I disagree with but appreciate. You have been a fan long enough to remember his potential/upside. Thanks for hanging in there.
Unfortunately, his stuff regressed and he rarely misses bats. Agree that he likely takes a minor league deal for most teams as a flyer going into spring training.
He was awful with the Tigers last season. $4MM seems too high for what he brings to the table. Best of luck, I guess.
I just wrote almost the ecact same thing, didn’t see your post.
Haha, no worries. I think anyone who watched him pitch last season is having the same reaction.
4M guaranteed? Seriously? I’m surprised he could get anything more than a minor league deal. He was awful with the Tigers.
Good to see the Marlins spend. Make a deal worth like 10-20 million or so to avoid greivance.
He had a great year in the juiced ball 2019 season. Awful since, but still rooting for the guy
After his bad stint with the Twins and the even worse one with Detroit I find this signing surprising. Doesn’t Miami have a few younger starters who project to maintain a sub 5.00 ERA-clip?
Gruß,
BSHH
The bigger news here is the reminder that Ronny Henriquez will the season
When you spend more than $200mm less on payroll than three teams in your division why bother?????
Love this signing. All but guarantees that Snelling and White start in minors guaranteeing an extra year of control.
If they can cut the HRs in half, could be a 150+ inning eater with a 4-4.50 ERA. At 4 million, not bad value in today’s game.
Alcantara
Perez
Garrett
Meyer
Paddack
Snelling
White
Junk
Gusto
Mazur
The bottom three are organizational depth. But Snelling and White are near-future rotation mates—and could be there within the first half of the season—meaning the Marlins could have seven viable starters very soon.
So… Either Paddack was signed because of the organization’s exhausting history with injuries to their starting pitchers, or they’re planning on moving Alcantara, and Paddack helps plug the hole until Snelling and White are ready.
In an ideal scenario (meaning good health for all), this would be a very talented rotation to move forward with:
Perez
Meyer
Garrett
Snelling
White (he’d eventually move toward the front)
They won’t be moving alcantara until the deadline (if they are not in contention)
Getting closer to being full time at UPS…
UPS has been doing layoffs.
He is awful, good luck. He keeps getting stats though.
Guy is terrible
Time to retire chris. 2 tommy johns and now on miami. Its over
Remember when Paddack thought he was more valuable than Pete Alonso?
Lived in SD outside Petco when he was there; don’t understand this move at this price. Always seems to get hurt, few pitches.
Snelling isn’t stretched out enough for a full big league season and Thomas White is behind him.
The Quantril project soaked up just enough innings in the first half before faltering last season. Success with Paddack pitching will have him pitching over 100 innings before the All Star break with a few less runs srurrendered
Since Peter Bendix has brought his Tampa Rays ways to The Marlins. I am wondering if he is seeing something in Paddack who has had success in the past as a reclamation project that could possibly be moved at the deadline at a low salary if all works out. Not all moves work out and this could be one of them, but there might be some analytical basis behind this move beyond what is seen rather than innings filler like a lot of teams would do that can’t produce pitching like either of The Florida major league baseball teams can.
The Marlins got a good one!
When he first came up with the padres I thought for sure he was going to be a front end starter. I was way off
I like this signing for both sides.
So he was not on the 60 Day IL from the end of the World Series on.
BUT Now with the start of Spring Training 2026, he is injured and on the 60 Day DL.
Another STUPID and OUTDATED MLB Reule in need of reciew & revision.
Yep, reciew that reule right away!