The Cardinals spent much of the offseason looking for a right-handed bat to add to their outfield group. Interest in Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar and old friend Harrison Bader did not lead to a deal, however. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat writes that the Cardinals had a tough time selling the opportunity to veterans seeking big league deals, as someone like Hays or Andujar would only be assured playing time while Lars Nootbaar mended from his dual heel surgery. Once healthy, Nootbaar will rejoin an outfield also expected to include defensive standout Victor Scott II in center field and former top prospect Jordan Walker in right field.
The looming return of Nootbaar would be a sensible deterrent for any veteran looking to maximize playing time in order to secure a multi-year deal in the future (e.g. Hays, Andujar) or one who was seeking a multi-year opportunity this winter (e.g. Bader). That wasn’t as big a factor for players simply looking for non-roster opportunities, however, and Jones writes that one such player is now all but guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster: Nelson Velázquez.
The 27-year-old Velázquez has had a monster spring, clubbing four homers in 39 plate appearances with an overall .333/.436/.727 slash and six walks against only three strikeouts. He also had a nice showing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, hitting .277/.377/.423 with 22 walks against 29 strikeouts in 159 turns at the plate.
Velázquez has played in parts of three major league seasons between the Cubs and Royals, combining for a .212/.286/.433 batting line and 31 home runs in 615 plate appearances. There’s little doubting his power potential, but a 28.8% strikeout rate has held him back. Velázquez’s approach isn’t particularly poor; he walks at a slightly better-than-average 8.5% rate, and his chase rate on balls off the plate is several percentage points shy of average. Rather, his sub-par hit tool has been the primary deterrent. Velázquez’s 76.2% contact rate on pitches over the plate is nearly nine percentage points shy of average, however, and his 43% contact rate when he does chase off the plate is 14 percentage points lower than average.
That said, Velázquez has made some gains in terms of cutting his strikeout rate and upping his walk rate both in winter ball and in his past couple runs at the Triple-A level. He’s certainly not going to continue his preposterous spring training production, but even some modest gains in his contact ability could help him break through as a power-over-hit corner bat. Assuming he indeed makes the roster, he’ll have the opportunity to carve out some staying power even after Nootbaar returns. Velázquez is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent down without passing through waivers, but he’s also controllable for five more seasons via arbitration. At the very least, he’s put himself in strong position to earn another big league opportunity after spending 2025 in Triple-A (between the Pirates and Royals).
Also in strong position is outfielder Nathan Church, writes Bill Ladson of MLB.com. The lefty-swinging 25-year-old has hit .286/.412/.429 in 34 turns at the plate this spring. He could find himself in something of a platoon situation in left field (with Velázquez) or fill a more traditional fourth outfielder role. He’s capable of playing all three spots and was credited with four Outs Above Average (per Statcast) and five Defensive Runs Saved in just 164 big league innings last year.
Church hit just .179/.254/.250 in a cup of coffee that spanned 65 plate appearances last year. His work in the minors, however, was far more impressive. In 385 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, he slashed .329/.386/.524 with 13 homers, 16 steals, an 8.6% walk rate and just a 9.6% strikeout rate.
“His demeanor has been different, overall confidence is better,” manager Oli Marmol tells Ladson in discussing the difference between what he saw in Church last summer and what he’s seen this spring. “Mechanically, he has made some changes to be more consistent.”
Teammate Nolan Gorman has also been seeking consistency — in his case, for the past several years. The former first-rounder and top prospect has shown flashes of enormous power potential in the past but still hasn’t solidified himself as a productive regular. Part of that has been scattershot opportunities with Nolan Arenado at third base and Brendan Donovan seeing lots of time at second base; neither is on the roster anymore. Significant strikeout issues have been a more alarming factor. Gorman has gone down on strikes in 34% of his 1581 career plate appearances.
As Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, Gorman met with a private hitting instructor early this offseason at Arenado’s recommendation. A two-week regimen led to some mechanical changes with his setup (specifically his back elbow) and has helped him to find a more consistency with getting his front foot down during his swing.
Spring stats provide a small sample that ought to be taken with a major grain of salt, but Gorman has taken 37 plate appearances and given some reason for optimism, hitting .250/.351/.625 with three homers, five walks (13.5%) and just six strikeouts (16.2%) in 37 plate appearances.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco previewed what looks like a make-or-break year for Gorman back in late January. With no real roadblock to playing time at third base, Gorman should be in the lineup more days than not have a bit more of a set position than in the past, when he’s bounced between third base, second base, first base and designated hitter. He’s now north of three years of major league service time as well, so if Gorman’s egregious strikeout rate resurfaces and continues to weigh down his overall production, he’d be a non-tender candidate following the season.
I see great things ahead for Gorman.
We could see a Ghorman Massacre this year.
Velázquez was a great signing he mashed in Mexico and did great in AAA in a small sample size at the end of last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a good chunk of playing time this year.
Nice to see some unexpected bright spots with the offense, and the pitching this spring has shown lots of upside.
Cautiously optimistic this team could be fun to watch.
Let’s go!
Agreed! I can’t wait to get this season started.
I feel the same, Velasquez has been very impressive. The tear down Chaim Bloom underwent during the offseason had been coming for a few years and is giving a fresh breath of air into the team. Feels like they have a good chance to be more competitive than last year
They gotta start Walker in AAA.
Hate to say it but change of scenery is what’s best for him
Sure feels like it.
Wonder if they’ll give him a look for a couple of weeks before sending him to Memphis. He has one last minor league option, then that’s it.
He looks absolutely terrible…completely lost. Pulling for him, but man, he looks as bad as ever.
There’s no reason not to give Walker lots of rope as the starting MLB RF now that the position is fully open and they have no chance of contention this season. If he still doesn’t figure it out this year, then they can look to move him for a change of scenery either at the trade deadline or next offseason.
The position was fully open last year and he didn’t do anything. I think starting at AAA is the only hope for his development.
No, it wasn’t. The Cardinals were forced to use Burleson in the OF for much of last year when Herrera became the nearly full-time DH, which only allowed Walker to play against LHP during the times that Nootbaar (and Walker himself) was healthy or Donovan was playing the OF.
The Cardinals were also in contention until mid-July, so they needed to play their best players most of the time until then.
Until Walker can stop chasing the slider or anything else that lands in the dirt a foot outside the zone he needs to work on it in AAA. If he can’t stop pounding the ball into the dirt he could be a trade piece for a team that thinks they can fix him. He’s only 23 yo but his body language looks like he’s miserable and his confidence is in the toilet.
The Cardinals have taken a lot of heat but they made the right decision to rebuild. They were mediocre and patching over that veteran group would have resulted in a few years of 75-85 wins, but this is the path to legitimate contention.
Especially since losing so much money on their TV deal and recent lackluster attendance meant they would’ve needed to cut payroll anyway.
Gorman has 1,600 MLB plate appearances. I don’t see two-weeks with a hitting instructor plus 37 spring at bats will all of a sudden turn around his career. But that’s why we play the games!
Indeed. It’s been hard to watch in past years.
But will say, seeing his approach improve and him not biting on pitches off-speed down and away, has been eye-opening. Sure looks like he’s picking those pitches up better…we shall see when he faces better pitching.
Whereas, what Walker is currently bringing feels like he’s just not capable of turning it around at all.
But we’ve been teased by these two for a while 😊
But unlike Walker, Gorman has actually had MLB success before when he hit 27 HRs in 119 Games for a 118 wRC+ and 2.4 bWAR and 2.2 fWAR in 2023. He just needs to get back to that.
Gorman also hasn’t been as bad as Walker has been, to where he could still be a decent MLB bench player at worst.
There is serious thump in Velazquez’ bat, the only question is will get enough AB’s to show it
Walker has been toast for years. One of the worst major league hitters I’ve ever seen. He’s unable to pull his arms in on the inside pitch, can’t recognize something breaking away from him on the outside, totally unable to hit anything up in the zone, and when he does hit it, it’s on the ground. It’s not going to happen for him in St. Louis, and probably not anywhere – release him.
Completely agree. For the past two seasons, just watching his swing makes me cringe. He’s collapsing so much on his back foot/leg. Obviously the chase problems. But even more than that, he just looks like he was dropped in some random wilderness and was told to find his way back. Literally looks like he doesn’t know what’s going on. What’s up with that? He looks timid/shy. Absolutely zero confidence. Being in the majors isn’t going to help that.