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Poll: The Cardinals’ Center Field Battle

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As the Cardinals look to embrace a youth movement in John Mozeliak’s final year at the helm of the club, their inability to trade Nolan Arenado this winter has caused some complications. With Arenado ticketed for everyday playing time at third base, St. Louis now has five players for three spots in the lineup: second base, left field, and center field. While none of those five players can play all three of those positions, the versatility of Brendan Donovan to play either second base or left field connects the decisions made in the outfield to those at the keystone.

Donovan and Lars Nootbaar are both more or less guaranteed everyday playing time with the Cardinals, and one of them figures to be the club’s starting left fielder. Should Donovan start in left field, it would push Nootbaar to center, and that would open up second base for Nolan Gorman, who would have taken over for Arenado if the veteran were traded. Meanwhile, starting Nootbaar in left would push Donovan back onto the infield, and in doing so would open up center field for one of Michael Siani or Victor Scott II.

Scott and Siani are very similar players. Siani is a little over a year older than Scott, headed into his age-25 season while Scott has only just turned 24, and the pair combined for nearly 85% of the club’s innings in center field last year. Both are left-handed hitters who have struggled to hit in the majors so far, but are very well-regarded for their speed and defense nonetheless.

Of the two, Siani has the edge in terms of big league experience. After brief stints in the majors with the Reds and Cardinals in 2022 and ’23, Siani enjoyed his first extended taste of big league action last year when he appeared in 124 games for St. Louis and stepped up to the plate 334 times. He hit a paltry .228/.285/.285 in that time, good for a 64 wRC+ that was 36% worse than the league average hitter and the eighth-lowest slash line among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. With that being said, Siani went an excellent 20-for-23 on the basepaths while posting +16 Outs Above Average, a 99th percentile figure that placed him behind only Nationals defensive standout Jacob Young among outfielders.

Unfortunately, there’s little in Siani’s profile that suggests a significantly higher offensive ceiling than he demonstrated in 2024. His actual batting average and slugging percentage both outstripped his expected numbers in those categories by more than 20 points last year, and his .322 BABIP, while not necessarily unsustainable due to his excellent speed, is already at the higher end of the expected range for a regular player. That limited offensive ceiling could open the door for Scott, a consensus top-100 prospect entering last season who has previously shown flashes of offensive potential in the minor leagues. Scott’s .179/.219/.283 (40 wRC+) slash line in 53 games for the Cardinals last year was actually worse than that of Siani, though his peripheral and expected numbers suggest the pair’s underlying performance was roughly the same.

Most notably, Scott flashed more power potential than Siani with a 5.7% barrel rate during his time in the majors last year that more than doubled Siani’s 2.3% figure. Scott also had 35 hard-hit batted balls to Siani’s 43 despite being afforded less than half of the playing time. All of that, as well as Scott’s excellent .323/.373/.450 slash line at the Double-A level in 2023, suggests that Scott has a higher offensive ceiling than Siani and could be a more impactful all-around player if given the opportunity. Scott is also a potential game changer on the basepaths, having stolen an unbelievable 94 bases between High-A and Double-A in 2023 and having followed that up with 35 steals between Triple-A and the majors last year.

Scott grades out extremely well in center field on scouting reports and posted solid (+3 OAA) numbers in defensive metrics with relatively minimal playing time last year, but he would need improve those numbers substantially to offer the sort of league-leading defense Siani has shown himself to be capable of. What’s more, Scott’s bat took a concerning step backwards even at Triple-A last year, when he slashed just .210/.294/.303 in 82 games. That lackluster showing could suggest that Scott simply isn’t ready for another jump to the major leagues, particularly given that the gap between MLB and Triple-A is even bigger than that between the Triple- and Double-A levels.

Of course, another viable option would be simply placing Nootbaar in center field. An above-average big league hitter in each of his four MLB seasons so far, Nootbaar is obviously the most talented hitter of the bunch but will be in the lineup in some capacity regardless of whether he’s playing center field or not. Playing Nootbaar in center, then, would actually open up playing time for Gorman. The club’s first-rounder back in 2018, Gorman was a league average bat during his rookie season in 2022 before taking a big step forward the following year, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 119 games that year. Unfortunately, things fell apart for Gorman last year as he struck out at a worrisome 37.9% clip and watched his slash line plummet to a lackluster .203/.271/.400 (87 wRC+).

Even last year’s subpar offensive output is likely better than what can be expected from either Siani or Scott this year, but to get Gorman’s bat into the lineup the Cards would have to sacrifice on defense. Nootbaar has logged 109 games in center field over the course of his career, with a rather pedestrian +1 OAA during that relatively sporadic playing time. While it’s possible that Nootbaar’s numbers could tick up with more regular playing time at the position, it’s clear he lacks the impactful defense ability of Siani or Scott. The club’s baserunning would suffer if Gorman replaced Siani or Scott in the lineup as well, as Gorman has never swiped more than seven bags in a season and has been a net negative on the basepaths throughout his career according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric.

How should the Cardinals handle their center field conundrum? Should they stick with Siani’s elite glove despite his lackluster offense? Pass the baton to Scott despite questions about his offensive ceiling thanks to his elite speed and baserunning abilities? Or should they slide Nootbaar over to center despite pedestrian defense in order to maximize their lineup’s potential by making room for Gorman? Have your say in the poll below:

Cardinals Win Arbitration Hearing Versus Brendan Donovan, Lose Versus Lars Nootbaar

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The Cardinals have now heard rulings on a pair of arbitration cases. Per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, they won their hearing against utilityman Brendan Donovan but lost their hearing against outfielder Lars Nootbaar. Donovan will earn the $2.85MM figure submitted by the team last month rather than the $3.3MM submitted by his camp. Nootbaar, meanwhile, will earn the $2.95MM sum he submitted rather than the $2.45MM figure presented by the team.

Donovan, 28, has exactly three years of MLB service and was arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. He’s combined to hit .280/.364/.407 in 1491 plate appearances since his 2022 debut, smacking 30 homers, 65 doubles and five triples along the way. He’s shown incremental power increases in each of the past two seasons — last year’s 14 round-trippers were a career-high — but has done so at the expense of some walks. He drew free passes at a hearty 12.8% clip in 2022 but drew a walk in a below-average 7.2% of last season’s 652 trips to the plate.

Beyond his keen bat-to-ball skills and knack for getting on base, Donovan’s value is largely tied to his defensive versatility. The term “super utility” gets thrown around a lot, but Donovan genuinely exemplifies that moniker. He’s played all four infield positions and both outfield corners in his MLB career (albeit only 65 innings at short and 150 innings at first base). Defensive metrics like Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved tend to agree that he’s at least passable, if not a bona fide plus defender at most spots on the diamond (with third base being his best, metrics-wise). The industry largely agrees. Donovan took home a Gold Glove for his utility work back in 2022.

Nootbaar, 27, is also in his first trip through arbitration. He’ll come out marginally ahead of Donovan, perhaps in part a reflection of his lower asking price and superior totals in home runs (45 to 30), games played (392 to 374) and baserunning value (24-for-30 in steals to 12-for-21) in the early portions of their respective careers. In parts of four MLB seasons, Nootbaar is a .246/.348/.425 hitter.

Nootbaar is ticketed for regular work in the outfield this year, though his exact placement could depend on the trade status of Nolan Arenado. If the Cardinals succeed in moving Arenado, they can deploy Nolan Gorman regularly at third base and Donovan at second base. That’d open left field for Nootbaar. If Arenado stays in place, Gorman would probably see more time at second base, pushing Donovan to left field with more regularity. That’d likely lead to additional time in center for Nootbaar, barring injuries to Donovan or right fielder Jordan Walker.

Both Donovan and Nootbaar are controlled for an additional two seasons. They’ll be up for free agency in the 2027-28 offseason. With the Cardinals eyeing some kind of reset and refocus on player development, either could feasibly emerge as a summer trade candidate, but St. Louis has been staunchly against moving affordable/controllable players of this ilk. In fact, despite their proclamation of wanting to open more time for younger players, they haven’t parted with a single veteran this offseason. They also haven’t added any new pieces. While the front office has doggedly focused on trying to find an Arenado trade, there’s been no fruit in those negotiations.

Cardinals Have Discussed Multi-Year Deals With Donovan, Nootbaar

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8:50am: Denton now reports that a multi-year deal no longer appears likely to be reached by today’s deadline to exchange figures. The two parties can, of course, continue negotiations on a multi-year pact even after arbitration figures have been exchanged. Similarly, the Cards and Donovan could come to terms on a one-year deal today and continue negotiations on a multi-year deal between now and Opening Day.

8:05am: The Cardinals are nearing a multi-year agreement with utilityman Brendan Donovan, reports John Denton of MLB.com. Donovan, a client of the Bledsoe Agency, was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.6MM in his first trip through the process. A multi-year deal would lock in the salary for at least two of his three arbitration seasons.

Denton adds that the Cards also discussed a multi-year arrangement with outfielder Lars Nootbaar, but the two parties haven’t been able to come to terms. He’s expected to agree to a one-year deal later today, avoiding an arbitration hearing in the process. Swartz projected Nootbaar for a $2.5MM salary in what is also his first offseason of eligibility. Like Donovan, Nootbaar is currently under club control through 2027.

Donovan, 28 later this month, has established himself as one of the game’s most valuable multi-position players. The versatile lefty hitter finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2022 and won a Gold Glove for his excellence across six different positions that season: all four infield slots and both outfield corners. Through three big league seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.364/.407 in just shy of 1500 plate appearances.

Donovan is light on power (30 career homers, .126 ISO) but draws walks at an above-average 9.4% clip and is one of the toughest players to strike out in all of baseball (career 13.7 K%, including 12.4 K% in 2024). He’s also fresh off a career-best 14 long balls, though that came in conjunction with a career-low 7.2% walk rate. Regardless of exactly how he’s gotten there, however, Donovan has been a decidedly above-average hitter in all three of his big league seasons, by measure of wRC+, and he’s capable of contributing sharp defense at third base, second base and in the outfield corners at the very least.

Whether the Cardinals are able to secure any free agent seasons in a multi-year deal remains to be seen. Both Denton and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggest that the Cards could approach a Donovan deal similarly to the manner in which they approached Tommy Edman’s case last winter: lock in his remaining arb seasons to obtain some cost certainty without extending the window of existing club control. There’s value in that for the Cards, to be sure, but tacking on at least one additional season would clearly be of greater benefit — if the two parties can find common ground. Donovan’s first free-agent season would be his age-31 campaign.

Nootbaar, 27, is coming off an injury-shortened season but still posted a solid .244/.342/.417 slash with a dozen homers in 405 trips to the plate last year. He’s slashed .246/.351/.426 with a 14% walk rate and 19.8% strikeout rate in 1255 plate appearances dating back to 2022. He’s proven himself capable of handling all three outfield spots but has drawn better marks for his glovework in the corners than in center. With the two sides unable to come to terms on a multi-year deal, it seems he’ll take a one-year pact and perhaps revisit multi-year talks next winter — ideally on the heels of a healthier season.

Donovan and Nootbaar are two of six arbitration-eligible Cardinals this winter. St. Louis also needs to hammer out deals with closer Ryan Helsley, righty Andre Pallante and lefties JoJo Romero and John King. The deadline to exchange salary figures is noon CT today. Like most teams, the Cardinals have adopted a file-and-trial approach in recent years, meaning they’ll use today’s deadline as an unofficial deadline to negotiate on one-year deals. Nothing is technically stopping teams and players from continuing to work toward one-year deals once figures are exchanged, but the vast majority of teams will only continue negotiating on multi-year deals (or one-year deals with an option) once figures have been swapped.

John Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Offseason Plans

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Getting a clear picture of the Cardinals’ plans for 2025 has been a bit of a moving target. Multiple reports over the past months indicated the club was looking at a sort of reset year, lowering the payroll as they pivot towards a focus on player development. As such, it seemed fair to expect that a number of veteran players on the roster would be available in trade. In recent weeks, that expectation has been softened, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak discussed with Katie Woo of The Athletic this week.

“We have every intention of fielding a good baseball team,” Mozeliak said. “It’s going to have a different profile, but we still have a lot of belief that some of our younger players will take that next step forward. We’re excited about what we have. Now, it is Dec. 5, and things can happen and things can change. But we’re still going into (next season) with optimism that it’ll be a fun baseball team to watch.”

It seems the plan is to walk a bit of a fine line. The Cards are definitely planning to take their foot of the gas pedal a bit, though maybe not to the degree that was initially expected. All signs point to the club spending a bit less on the 2025 roster, but they might just do that by being less aggressive. RosterResource already projects the club about $35MM below last year’s payroll, so the Cards could just avoid signings as opposed to actively looking to move players with notable contracts.

As of a few weeks ago, it seemed fair to expect players like Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ryan Helsley and others would be available. Helsley is an excellent reliever but is one year away from free agency, making it logical for them to explore trades. The other three are in their mid-30s and making eight-figure salaries. They all have no-trade protection but it was assumed by some that they would prefer to be traded to a competitor, rather than sticking out a rebuilding process.

But it was reported last month that Contreras actually wanted to stay in St. Louis and didn’t want to waive his no-trade clause. Since one of the goals of the 2025 season is for the club to evaluate players including catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, Contreras will be moved to first base to replace free agent Paul Goldschmidt. Though the reporting was a bit less explicit with Gray, it seems he also had a desire to stay with the Cards next year.

Recent reporting has also suggested that they will hold onto Helsley. They could eventually trade him at the deadline but there is some risk there. Helsley could get hurt or put up less impressive numbers in the first half of 2025. Holding onto him now also prevents the acquiring team from making a qualifying offer after 2025, potentially reducing his trade value.

All in all, it seems the plan is to do something in between rebuilding and full-throated contending. The Cards are going to give playing time to some less proven players and hope for some internal developments. Woo lists Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Pagés and Herrera as players who should get long auditions in 2025. That’s notable for Gorman as he seemed to fall out of favor this past year, getting optioned to the minors with Mozeliak seemingly delivering a harsh assessment of his situation at that time.

“Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can,” Mozeliak said in August. “I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you. With our offensive struggles this year, I think you can strictly look at the inability for consistent performance, day in and day out.”

It seems much has changed since that comment, as Mozeliak now tells Woo that they’re hoping for Gorman to get 600 at-bats next year. He seemed to break out in 2023 with 27 home runs and a strong 11.4% walk rate, working around a high strikeout rate of 31.9%. But his walk rate fell to 8.5% in 2024 as his strikeout rate climbed even higher to 37.6%, leading to his aforementioned optioning to the minors.

The Cards have a few of these talented but unproven players and it seems the plan is to give them a chance to step forward. Walker also had a strong 2023 but fell off in 2024. Burleson had a nice breakout in 2024 that he’ll try to maintain. Nootbaar has been limited by injuries and still hasn’t played 120 games in a season. Pagés and Herrera have been stuck in backup duty behind Contreras.

The overarching plan then is to proverbially throw these players into the deep end and see how well they swim. The Cards believe that, with some success from that group and others, they could potentially compete in 2025. That mentality is leading them to hold onto players like Helsley for now and see how things go. Depending on how the players and the team perform in the first half of 2025 could then determine next steps.

The big remaining unknown seems to be Arenado, who seems to be more open to waiving his no-trade clause than Contreras or Gray, but he hasn’t demanded a trade and the Cardinals don’t seem hellbent on moving him. Whether he returns to St. Louis in 2025 could perhaps depend on what kind of offers are put on the table for him. On top of that, players like Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas are impending free agents. The club may be open to trading them depending on the offers, but like Helsley, they could also be retained as the club tries to see if contending in 2025 is possible.

Cardinals Notes: Trade Deadline, Nootbaar, Edman, O’Brien

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Today’s 8-3 win over the Nationals improved the Cardinals’ record to 47-42, and continued the team’s impressive run of play over the last two months.  After stumbling out of the gates to a 15-24 start, the Cards have now won 32 of their last 50 games, and have surged into the second NL wild card slot.

This has put St. Louis into a buyer position as the trade deadline approaches, and as Ken Rosenthal commented in an appearance this week on the Foul Territory show (X link), the Cards perhaps have an interesting edge over some other teams looking to make moves.  The Cardinals “have Major League pieces to trade,” Rosenthal said, since the team might have a bit of a surplus of position players due to some upcoming returns from the injured list.  With many clubs still straddling the line between being clear-cut buyers or sellers, “teams are not going to want to give up necessarily prospects or make certain kinds of moves.  But if they can fill a need with major leaguers from your club, and give you perhaps excess from their own, that is going to be valuable.”

Since the Cards need starting pitching, the most obvious comp here is the 2022 deadline trade that saw St. Louis obtain Jordan Montgomery from the Yankees in a one-for-one swap for Harrison Bader.  Naturally, finding a repeat of such a successful deal isn’t easy, nor are any of the Cardinals’ current trade chips necessarily as valuable as Bader was in 2022, coming off a Gold Glove award and above-average offensive seasons in 2020-21.

Rosenthal suggested that catcher Ivan Herrera or Dylan Carlson could potentially be dangled in trade talks at this deadline.  Former top prospect Carlson could be seen as a change-of-scenery candidate after two seasons of struggles, and Herrera is maybe superfluous since the Cards have Willson Contreras and Pedro Pages at catcher.  (Herrera is himself on the 10-day IL due to lower back tightness, but is expected back after the All-Star break.)

Getting these injured players back is the first step in whatever plans the Cardinals might have in mind for July 30, and on that front, Lars Nootbaar should return this week.  An oblique strain has sidelined Nootbaar since the end of May, but he has now banked seven rehab games with Double-A Springfield.  Cardinals Oliver Marmol told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that Nootbaar “came out feeling good” after this recent stretch of games, and technically, Nootbaar could be activated from the 10-day IL as early as Monday.  However, since the Cardinals are on the road and wrapping up a series in Washington on Monday, it is probably more likely that Nootbaar returns during the Cards’ five-game homestand prior to the All-Star break.

Nootbaar has hit .234/.337/.404 over 164 plate appearances this season, and is hopefully in for an extended stretch of good health after already making two trips to the IL in 2024.  The outfielder suffered a rib injury during Spring Training that delayed his season debut until April 12, but in between his IL visits took on a starting role in the corner outfield positions.

Tommy Edman could very well be taking Nootbaar’s spot in Springfield, as Edman is slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment with the Double-A affiliate on Tuesday.  This will mark Edman’s first game action of any kind in 2024, as Edman has been battling through a lengthy recovery process since undergoing arthroscopic wrist surgery last October.  Since Edman will need at least a few weeks of rehab games considering his long layoff, it’s possible he won’t be ready for the big league roster by the July 30 deadline, but the Cardinals should have enough of a sense of his status by then to determine whether or not Edman’s return could perhaps make someone else on the roster expendable in a trade.

Right-hander Riley O’Brien threw to Edman during a live batting practice session on Saturday, with O’Brien throwing 20 pitches in total.  O’Brien hasn’t pitched since Opening Day due to a right flexor strain, and as MLB.com’s John Denton details, O’Brien started throwing in mid-June before some more forearm discomfort during a live BP session led to consultations with Dr. Keith Meister.  Fortunately, it appears as though O’Brien has been cleared of any more serious arm issues since he has returned to throwing, and a rehab assignment could potentially be in the works if he continues to feel pain-free.

Cardinals Notes: Arenado, Siani, Contreras, Nootbaar

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TODAY: Arenado received a pain-killing injection in his forearm today, Marmol told John Denton and other reporters today.  It isn’t yet clear if Arenado will need an IL stint, but he wasn’t available for pinch-hitting duties in today’s game.

JUNE 22: Cardinals star Nolan Arenado departed the club’s win over the Giants in the eighth inning today due to discomfort in his left forearm, as noted by MLB.com’s John Denton. Notably, that’s not the same arm that Arenado suffered an elbow contusion on after being struck by a pitch from Marlins right-hander Huascar Brazoban earlier this week. More information was not made available following tonight’s game beyond the fact that Arenado would be evaluated further tomorrow.

It’s an unfortunate turn of events in the midst of what has been a difficult season for the 33-year-old veteran, who is slashing just .260/.315/.375 with a 99 wRC+. That would be Arenado’s first below-average offensive performance in a 162-game season since his rookie campaign back in 2013. He’s paired that lackluster offense with surprisingly pedestrian glovework at third base, where he’s been worth +0 Outs Above Average and -5 Defensive Runs Saved. That’s a far cry from the fielding he offered at the position earlier in his career, when he won the NL Gold Glove award at third base in ten consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2022.

Even with that diminished production this year, however, the loss of Arenado would still be a tough blow for the Cardinals should he end up missing time due to his injury. Not only is he just two seasons removed from a campaign where he was a finalist for the NL MVP award, but the eight-time All Star is the club’s only clear solution at third base given the present construction of the lineup. While former top prospect Jordan Walker came up as a third baseman and is currently in the minors, the 22-year-old has struggled both in Triple-A and at the big league level this year and converted to the outfield full time last year making him an unlikely choice to take over for Arenado in the case of an injury.

Super-utility bat Brendan Donovan has played the hot corner at times, but he’s settled in as the club’s regular left fielder in the absence of Lars Nootbaar. It’s possible that Donovan could slide over to third base and open up left field for Dylan Carlson, but perhaps a more likely scenario would see the Cardinals rely more heavily on bench bats Brandon Crawford and Jose Fermin to fill in for Arenado at third. That’s especially true given the fact that center fielder Michael Siani also exited today’s game due to an injury, though Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat relayed after the game that x-rays on Siani’s ribs after he hit the ground hard on a diving play in the outfield came back negative. The 24-year-old appears to have avoided a major injury, but even a day-to-day issue would at least temporarily weaken the club’s outfield depth noticeably.

As for Nootbaar, the 26-year-old has been sidelined by an oblique strain since the end of May. Jones relays that he appears to be making progress in his rehab but the outfielder has not yet even begun to take batting practice, instead only hitting off a tee at this stage in the process. That would seem to indicate that Nootbaar, who will surely require a rehab assignment before he can return to action, isn’t going to be returning to the club’s positional mix any time soon to provide Marmol additional flexibility as he fills out the club’s lineup card in the wake of Arenado’s and Siani’s possible injuries.

One piece of good news for Cardinals fans is the impending return of star catcher Willson Contreras, who Marmol told reporters (including Jones) will catch seven innings for Triple-A Memphis tonight before DH’ing tomorrow’s game. As Jones notes, Contreras caught for the Redbirds yesterday and Marmol acknowledged that seeing how the 32-year-old held up after catching back to back games was the last major box the club needed to check regarding Contreras’s rehab.

Contreras has been out since early May with a broken forearm and was initially expected to miss ten weeks due to the injury, but the backstop has long since clearly been ahead of that schedule and seems like he could factor into the club’s plans before the end of the month. The slugger posted an excellent .280/.398/.551 slash line in 31 games for the Cardinals this year before being sidelined by the injury and could provide a boost to an offense that has posted a collective wRC+ of just 95 to this point in the season.

Cardinals Place Lars Nootbaar On Injured List

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The Cardinals announced Friday that outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 30, with an oblique strain. Infielder Jose Fermin is up from Triple-A Memphis to take Nootbaar’s spot on the active roster. St. Louis also announced that reliever Giovanny Gallegos is headed to Memphis on a minor league rehab assignment.

Nootbaar, 26, missed the first two weeks of the season with a rib injury and will now head back to the injured list. He’s out to a .234/.337/.404 start to the season, with plenty of underlying indicators that improved performance could be on the horizon once healthy. Nootbaar’s 13.4% walk rate remains characteristically excellent, as does his 20.6% chase rate on pitches off the plate. He’s been slightly more aggressive on pitches within the strike zone this season, and Nootbaar’s 92.1 mph average exit velocity, 21.7% line-drive rate and massive 52.8% hard-hit rate are all career-high marks. Given the plate discipline and quality of contact, an uptick in his offensive output seems quite likely — provided this oblique injury doesn’t hinder him upon his return.

With Nootbaar headed to the injured list, the Cardinals will likely give more playing time in right field to Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson. The switch-hitting Carlson is the vastly superior defender but has also posted a woeful .139/.244/.139 slash in a tiny sample of 41 plate appearances. Burleson is a poor defender but sports a far more impactful .289/.321/.428 slash with five homers in 160 turns at the plate.

Fermin was up with the big league club earlier this season but went just 3-for-18 with a trio of singles in that brief look. The 25-year-old has decimated Triple-A pitching this season, raking at a .346/.461/.615 pace with six homers and 10 doubles to along with a 10-for-10 showing in attempted stolen bases. He’s walked 19 times — a hearty 14.8% rate — against a minuscule five punchouts in Memphis this year (3.9%).

Gallegos, 32, allowed a dozen runs in nine innings this season before landing on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement. It was a wildly out-of-character showing for the typically solid Gallegos — one that included a career-low 92.5 mph average fastball. From 2019-23, Gallegos was one of the Cardinals’ steadiest bullpen arms, logging a combined 3.14 ERA with a very strong 30.7% strikeout rate against just a 6.4% walk rate in 238 1/3 innings.

Gallegos is in the second season of a two-year, $11MM contract that includes a $6.5MM club option. If he looks like his typical self in his return from the IL, that’ll be an easy call for the Cardinals to pick up, but the right-hander’s disastrous start to the 2024 season has rendered what looked like a straightforward call something of an open question.

Cardinals Notes: Nootbaar, Edman, Carlson, Middleton

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Cardinals manager Oli Marmol provided reporters with updates regarding a handful of the club’s injured players this afternoon, the most optimistic of which was regarding outfielder Lars Nootbaar. As noted by MLB.com’s John Denton, the 26-year-old played a full game in left field for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Memphis this evening, which figures to be followed by a game at DH on Sunday. Assuming those final rehab games go well, Denton adds that Nootbaar is slated to head to St. Louis on Monday and could be activated from the injured list in time for that evening’s series opener against the Phillies.

The Cardinals opened the season with a makeshift outfield mix of Jordan Walker, prospect Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan due to injuries suffered not only by Nootbaar, but also center fielders Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar’s start to the season has been delayed by a pair of fractures in his ribcage, while Edman has been dealing with pain in his surgically-repaired right wrist and Carlson suffered a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before the season began.

Nootbaar’s return should provide a boost to the club’s production in the outfield, as he’s hit a solid .247/.356/.430 with a 120 wRC+ and an excellent 14.5% walk rate in 225 games for the Cardinals over the past two seasons. That steady production should help to offset the slow starts suffered by Walker (27 wRC+), Scott (4 wRC+), and Burleson (30 wRC+) so far this season, though it’s of course still too early in the season to make any long-term judgments about the aforementioned trio.

It appears that Nootbaar is significantly close to a return than either Edman or Carlson, neither of whom have resumed baseball activities at this point. That could change rather quickly, however, as Denton notes that Carlson was scheduled to have his shoulder examined by team doctors today, while Edman is scheduled to meet with a specialist on Monday. Both players could be cleared to resume baseball activities if those aforementioned check-ups go well.

Edman was hampered by wrist issues last year and missed nearly a month of action over the summer, leading to him going under the knife in October. He hasn’t bounced back from that surgery as well as expected, however, and missed all of Spring Training while dealing with continued soreness in his wrist. He was slated to be the club’s starting center fielder this season, though he’s capable of playing anywhere in the infield and outfield as needed and could receive time at his native position of shortstop alongside Masyn Winn and Brandon Crawford when healthy.

Carlson, meanwhile, appeared poised to replace Edman in center field to open the season before he too hit the injured list to open the season. While he posted strong numbers en route to a third place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2021, the switch-hitter has struggled since with a .230/.316/.364 slash line in 204 games. It’s possible he’ll get regular reps in the outfield if he returns to action before Edman does, though once the club’s outfield is once again at full strength he figures to be relegated to work off the bench as the club’s fourth outfielder.

Looking beyond the outfield, Marmol also provided an update on right-hander Keynan Middleton to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) this afternoon. As relayed by Jones, Middleton received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow and is expected to resume baseball activities after a 72-hour rest period. The news represents a slight setback for Middleton, who was originally scheduled to begin his throwing program earlier this week.

Middleton has yet to make his Cardinals debut after signing a one-year deal with the club back in February, but pitched to a 3.38 ERA and 4.20 FIP in 51 games last year that included a dominant stretch run in New York where he posted an excellent 1.88 ERA with a 3.26 FIP while striking out 30.4% of batters faced. Upon his return, Middleton figures to slot into the club’s late-inning mix alongside the likes of Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Quero, Cantillo

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The Cardinals have been hit hard by injuries in the early days of the 2024 season, but they have recently received some good news about several players.

Major offseason acquisition Sonny Gray suffered a right hamstring strain in spring training, robbing him of the necessary game action he needed to be ready for the regular season. The right-hander threw 36 pitches over three simulated innings today (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), and he will pitch for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds on Wednesday (per Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Jones adds that a return as soon as April 9 or 10 is a possibility.

Keynan Middleton, another significant free agent signing this winter, is not quite as close to returning, but Worthy notes that he will begin to work off a mound on Wednesday. He was shut down with a forearm strain in mid-March.

As for the position players, Jones mentions that Lars Nootbaar took eight live at-bats today and will take another four tomorrow. Manager Oliver Marmol will meet with the outfielder to decide if he needs a rehab stint at Triple-A before coming off the IL. Nootbaar is recovering from two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs.

Tommy Edman is dealing with wrist pain following offseason surgery. Worthy reports that he is set to undergo an MRI on Wednesday. The scan will show whether or not he is ready to start ramping up his swing. Finally, Worthy notes that Dylan Carlson received an injection to help combat pain in his left shoulder. The pain is a result of a sprained AC joint that he suffered during an outfield collision in one of the final games of spring training. Barring a setback, he should be ready to get back into game action before too long.

More news from around the NL and AL Central…

  • Brewers catching prospect Jeferson Quero is being evaluated for a right shoulder injury, GM Matt Arnold told reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, although it’s certainly worrisome when a catcher known for his strong arm injures his throwing shoulder. Quero is only 21 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. However, the highly-regarded catching prospect is one of three backstops on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, along with William Contreras and Gary Sánchez. If his injury proves to be serious, the team’s catching depth will be tested early in the season.
  • Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher in the Guardians organization, will miss eight to 10 weeks with a hamstring strain he suffered at the end of spring training, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Cantillo was unlikely to make the Guardians Opening Day roster, even if he had stayed healthy this spring. That said, he is already on the 40-man roster, and after 18 starts at Triple-A last season, he seemed like a good candidate to make his MLB debut at some point this year. That could still happen, but he’ll have to wait at least a couple of months to get that chance.

Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar To Begin Season On Injured List

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Cardinals manager Oli Marmol informed the club’s beat today, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that right-hander Sonny Gray will start the season on the 15-day injured list. Outfielder Lars Nootbaar will start the year on the 10-day IL. Left-hander Zack Thompson will get a rotation job to start the season with fellow lefty Matthew Liberatore will be in the bullpen.

Gray was diagnosed with a right hamstring strain a couple of weeks ago and has been working his way back to health since then. Gray says he’s been healthy for about 10 to 12 days, per John Denton of MLB.com, but hasn’t had enough game action to be ready for the start of the season. Gray tells Denton that he thinks he’ll be able to return about 10 or 11 games into the season, since Opening Day IL stints can be backdated by three days. The Cards have a scheduled off-day after their eighth game on the docket.

While it’s not ideal for a club’s ace and key offseason signee to begin the year on the shelf, it seems Gray is planning on a minimal stay that will only involve missing a couple of turns through the rotation. Gray posted a 2.79 earned run average for the Twins last year, finishing second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.

As the Cards were looking to remake their rotation on the heels of a disaster season, Gray was the centerpiece of their offseason. While Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson were signed to serve as veteran innings eaters, Gray was given a three-year, $75MM deal to be at the front of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Gray’s temporary absence will open a rotation spot for a little while behind Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Lynn and Gibson, with Thompson stepping into it. He has a 3.65 ERA in 101 career innings to this point in his career. His 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate are all fairly close to league average. This spring, he has a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings.

He has an option year remaining and could perhaps be sent to Triple-A when Gray is healthy, but Liberatore has an option as well. That could perhaps leave Thompson in a long relief role while Liberatore is the one to go to Triple-A, depending on how the Cards want to play it.

As for Nootbaar, he injured himself making a catch a couple of weeks back and was diagnosed with two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs. Since Tommy Edman is also going to start the season on the shelf, the Cards will be without two thirds of their planned starting outfield. Edman has still been experiencing pain in his surgically repaired right wrist.

Until Nootbaar and/or Edman are able to return, the Cards will likely roll with an outfield of Dylan Carlson in center while Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson take the corners. Utility player Brendan Donovan will be rotating through multiple infield and outfield positions. Prospect Victor Scott is still in camp but the club could prefer for him to have regular playing time in the minors as opposed to a big league bench job, which could lead to Michael Siani making the roster. There are also plenty of guys shaking loose from other clubs as roster cuts are made and veterans opt out of minor league deals.

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