The Cardinals have more firmly committed to a retool than they did last offseason. They treated last season primarily as an evaluation year but weren’t as aggressive in selling off veteran pieces as they’ve been this winter. Unfortunately, they didn’t see any development from former first-round picks and top prospects Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. They’re in a similar position now as they were 12 months ago, though the pressure is probably ramping up on both players.
MLBTR examined Walker’s situation as the ’25 season was nearing its end. He’ll enter camp as the everyday right fielder but needs to take a major step forward if he’s to project as a regular on the 2027 team. There might be even more urgency for Gorman, who is two years older than Walker and has more than 1500 major league plate appearances under his belt. He’ll turn 26 in May. If there’s a breakout season in the cards, it probably needs to be now.
The opportunity should be there. After more than a year of trade rumors, the Cards lined up the Nolan Arenado deal a couple weeks ago. Third base is open, at least in the short term. Top prospect JJ Wetherholt is on the doorstep of the majors and may even play his way onto the Opening Day roster. There’s a good chance the Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan within the next two months, though, which would open second base for Wetherholt. That’d leave Gorman competing with Thomas Saggese for playing time at the hot corner.
Saggese has a strong minor league track record, but his very aggressive approach probably leaves him in a utility role. Gorman has flashed a higher ceiling, yet it’s a couple seasons in the rearview. He hit 14 home runs in 89 games as a rookie, then slugged 27 longballs with a .236/.328/.478 slash line in year two. Gorman entered the 2024 season as a .232/.317/.454 hitter with 41 homers in his first season and a half as a big leaguer.
There was a significant amount of swing-and-miss, but Gorman’s power was enough to fit in the middle third of a lineup. That hasn’t been the case over the past two seasons. Gorman has taken roughly 800 trips to the plate in that time. His batting average and on-base percentage have dropped by 30 points each, while his slugging mark has fallen by more than 50 points. Gorman carries a .204/.284/.385 slash going back to the beginning of 2024.
His general profile is much the same as it was early in his career. The lefty hitter has a reasonably patient approach and works a decent number of walks, but his pure bat-to-ball ability is subpar. That’s probably not going to change as he gets into his late 20s. He needs to do damage when he does make contact. A combined 33 homers over his past 218 games isn’t enough.
Gorman battled a couple injuries last year. He missed time early in the season with a hamstring strain and was sidelined by lower back pain around the All-Star Break. The actual injured list stint was minimal, but it’s possible he was playing at less than full strength for the final two months. He finished the season with a .187/.278/.323 line while striking out at a near-40% rate in 45 games after returning from the IL stint. Gorman has battled intermittent back discomfort for a few seasons.
Whatever the cause, Gorman’s bat speed has gone slightly in the wrong direction. He’s still pulling a lot of balls to right field, which is where he’s most likely to hit for power, but it’s not with the same authority as he did in 2023. He also dramatically scaled back how often he swings at the first pitch and hunts pitches in the heart of the plate. That earned him a few more walks than he took the year before, but it’s not ideal for putting him in positions to drive the ball.
Gorman has between three and four years of service time. He’s playing on a $2.655MM arbitration salary. He still has a couple minor league option years remaining, so he’s not on the roster bubble right now. A third straight replacement level performance would make him a likely non-tender next offseason, however.
Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.
I think this is going to be Gorman’s year. No pressure to compete for a playoff spot and an open spot for him to get abs.
Man, I hope you’re right. I’ve been looking forward to a Gorman break out. If he turns into a Schwarberish guy, id love it
I think he’ll be fine if they just let him have the first half of the season to play without pressure of being pulled every other day.
They have to trade Donovan for him to get a chance.
I hope this is his year also. I also hope he and Walker have been putting in the work this off season.
Winn started out the same way and worked his tail off in the off season and was the difference of night and day practically.
Gorman also needs to put in the work at third base. Don’t know if it was cause he hadn’t played there in a while last year, but he did not look good at the hot corner. Mainly throwing errors if i remember correctly. GO CARDS!!!
If they come away from this season and can say that Gorman and Walker have a future on this team, that’s a huge success. Nothing is a sure thing, but Wetherholt just seems like a high floor guy that will at least hit us .270 with 15ish homers. Add in Joshua Baez who I think is a has been overshadowed by some of these other more toolsy outfielders the rankings seem to favor and we’re cooking with gas now.
“If there is a breakout season in the cards”
Ha. Haha, even.