The Marlins announced their latest round of camp cuts this morning, and the most notable among that group were the decisions to option top catching prospect Joe Mack and right-hander Ryan Gusto to the minor leagues.
Mack, 23, is a consensus top-100 prospect and a first rounder from Miami’s 2021 draft class. After setting Double-A on fire for 13 games to open the year last season, Mack was promoted to Triple-A and hit a solid .250/.320/.459 with 18 homers, 18 doubles, and 2 triples in 100 games at the level. That was good for a 107 wRC+ at the level, which isn’t quite up to par for the typical top prospect but is nonetheless impressive considering his age and position. A 27.9% strikeout rate at Triple-A last year exacerbates concerns from scouts about Mack’s contact abilities, but the overall package is undoubtedly impressive.
Those questions are perhaps why it was reported last month that, while Mack would get the opportunity to fight his way onto the MLB roster, the team’s preference was for him to begin the season at Triple-A and hand catching duties over to the combination of Liam Hicks and Agustin Ramirez. Hicks was a pick in the 2024 Rule 5 draft who enjoyed a solid rookie season for the Marlins last year. He turned in a 98 wRC+ in 119 games behind the plate, though lackluster defensive metrics left him to be worth just 1.0 fWAR and 1.3 bWAR. Ramirez was also a rookie last year, and was the prize of the team’s Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade with the Yankees at the 2024 trade deadline. Ramirez slugged 21 homers in 136 games but got on base at just a .287 clip, leaving him with a 91 wRC+. He split time between catcher, first base, and DH in his first year as a big leaguer without showing strong defense at any of those positions.
There’s little doubt that Mack will be the long-term answer for the Marlins behind the plate as long as he hits at an even close to league average clip. He’s a well-regarded defender behind the plate who has been lauded for his strong arm and is far and a way the best defender of the team’s three young catchers according to scouts. With that being said, Mack is still young enough with enough questions about his hitting that it’s somewhat understandable that the Marlins would be interested in giving him more time to develop in the minor leagues. That’s all the more true after a tough spring at the plate, where he went just 3-for-24 with seven strikeouts. There’s little doubt that Mack will make his MLB debut at some point this year so long as he stays healthy, but in the meantime Christina De Nicola of MLB.com writes that the Marlins are encouraging him to work on his approach at the plate and spend more time getting familiar with the ABS strike zone while he waits for that opportunity at Triple-A.
As for Gusto, the right-hander was a key piece of the return for Jesus Sanchez at last year’s trade deadline. Gusto made his big league debut with the Astros just last year and was a solid swing man for Houston, posting a 4.92 ERA with a 4.16 FIP in 86 innings split between ten starts and 14 relief appearances. After being dealt to the Marlins, however, Gusto struggled badly. He made three starts in Miami and allowed 17 runs on 19 hits (including four home runs) and walked (8) nearly as many batters as he struck out (10), ending with a 9.77 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work. He struggled just as badly at Triple-A, and while he looked a bit better this spring he’s still ultimately squeezed out of a crowded Marlins rotation and better serves the Marlins as stretched-out depth than converting to a short relief role in the bullpen.
Fish making a move with gusto.
Gusto was great as the henchmen in Spy Kids.
At first it looked like it said Joe Ryan and I thought when did the Marlins get Joe Ryan?
Dang, two of the coolest names in baseball.
Alejandro Kirk can swipe a base on Hicks. Ramirez hasn’t faired well defensively either.
Its an interesting season for the Marlins and Mack in his age 23 season. Two more options available after the ’26 season.
Assuming all is well and the ’27 season is played, Mack can be optioned to the minors in both ’27 and ’28 without accruing a single day of service time.
’29 would be Mack’s age 26 season. The Marlins then have three seasons of Pre-ARB salaries on Mack. He would get arbitration prior to the ’32 season at age 29.
The Marlins could choose to non-tender or outright him at that point and he would be a free-agent or they can continue to roster him and pay him three seasons of arbitration salaries. If they have him on the bench as a backup catcher, those salaries would be relatively low. In that scenario, Mack reaches FA prior to the ’35 season in his age 32 season having earned right around 15M total. That’s a 9yr/15M deal, assuming low figures in arbitration for a backup catcher.
All together a legitimate scenario.
Marlins present this offer to Joe Mack: 8yr/25M with two 10M team options. In this scenario Mack earns a guaranteed 25M prior to the ’34 season. 35M prior to the ’35 season if the first of two options is picked up.
20M more than he earns if the Marlins drag him through arbitration as a backup catcher. Guaranteed money the entire way too.
Is it a good deal for Mack? He is getting levered hard on this one but if he takes the deal, he is the starting catcher this season. Far better to be catching MLB games and earning service time as opposed to riding out three more seasons in AAA. I’d say it’s a good deal. As Mack’s agent, I’d advise my client to take the deal.
Is it a good deal for the Marlins? Its heavy on the leverage. A shrewd and nasty deal. Would be even more shrewd and nasty at 8yr/20M. Yes, its a good deal for the Marlins, potentially a fantastic deal.
So why is there no deal? 8yr/25M with two 10M team options. And why aren’t there more deals like this to rookies?
With Tarek Skubal and Vlad Guerrero getting paid substantially in arbitration, the risk/reward proposition for teams that sign players to rookie deals is extended. The high arbitration salaries skew the risk/reward to the team, allowimg them to take more chances on rookies before they ever swing a bat in MLB. But only if they cam sign them to the floor. And to get players in at the floor as rookies, you have to rub a few of them out, like the scenario I presented with Mack above, and like the Dodgers have done with Ryan Ward.
Mack would still earn 15M as a martyr, its not all that bad. The Players Union must be advising players against taking these lowball rookie extensions but in some way it is the best deal available for the player and in doing so they are hurting a larger majority of players and lessor known agents in favor of superstars and superstar agents.
Id say the lowball Freddy Peralta deal is more beneficial for players as a whole than Tarik Skubal winning 32M in arbitration. Howso? Beneficial deals in this spectrum of the market encourage more teams to invest in younger players, forgoing heavy extensions to aging veterans in lieu of risk spread across a number of top tier prospects.
The bell curve would flatten substantially over time with more players getting paid within 1 standard deviation of the mean and thats a good thing.
Im no statistical wizard, but I collected a data set of 570 MLB player salaries to be paid in ’26 and computed:
– a mean of 8.81M AAV (top 35th percentile)
– a median of 5.0M AAV (top 50th percentile)
the standard deviation of the data set 1:570 is 165 players, and estimates that 57.9 percent of players are within 1 standard deviation of the median salary, that range equates to a low of 1.5M and a high of 14.8M.
-the average AAV of the top 20% of players is 24.84M
-the average AAV of the bottom 20% of players is 1.0M
I had imagined an assymetical distribution with AAV plotted from 0 to 70M on the Y-axis and %ile (1-100) of players plotted on the X-axis.
The curve generated would be very steep like a vert wall with a very long flat tail. I had imagined a shift in spending and a focus on more rookie deals would flatten this curve over time but it may just shorten the long tail.
Im unsure, interesting in a way but Id prefer to never see that TI-83 ever again, so I digress.
Tism on fire.
I think this is the second time you’ve mentioned that Mack would need to sign an extension to be Miami’s starting C this year and I still have no idea why you’re saying that. Or why he’d be optioned in 2027 or 2028. Or why you’re assuming his arb years will start in 2032? Why wouldn’t he be on track for arbitration after 2029 at the latest, even if he stays down long enough in 2026?
I have been trying to understand all of this myself and its my understanding that a player optioned to the minors doesnt accrue MLB service time.
If the Marlins chose to option Mack and didnt play him in ’26. Optioed him in ’27 and didnt play him in ’27 either, and again optioned him in ’28 without calling him up to the big leagues, he would enter the ’29 season with O.0 MLB service time and 0 options remaining. He could be DFA’d in ’29, potentially clear waivers and be outrighted to the mi krs again without accruing a day of service time.
Does the player get ARB1 in that scenario in ’29? Or does the player, whose rookie status is intact, get a Pre-ARB salary? It is my understanding that the player would be Pre-Arb in ’29, ’30 and ’31 and wouldn’t be eligible for arbitration until the ’32 season.
I could be wrong but that is my understanding of service time requirement for arbitration eligibility.
It is that sort of service time manipulation that leads me to believe that players can potentially be held back seven seasons before accruing a day of service time, and up to ten seasons without qualifying for arbitration.
It is Ryan Ward’s situation with the Dodgers that has me interested in this. Ward’s situation is about as bad as it gets for a prospect.
Ward entered affiliated ball in 2019 (1), 2020 (2), 2021 (3), 2022 (4) went unselected in the 2023 Rule 5 draft (5), went unselected in the 2024 draft (6), and was first placed on the 40 man roster after the 2025 season (7) — he is likely to be optioned in 2026 and wont earn a Pre-ARB salary. He can be optioned in ’27 and ’28 before being rosted as a rookie in ’29, his age 31 seaaon. He would have 0.0 service time and be Pre-ARB. He’d be eligible for arbitration in ’32 in his age 34 season. He’d be eligible for free agency in ’35, his age 37 season.
Its a harsh reality for a prospect. It is this sort of service time manipulation that leads me to believe players can be levered into low money deals under the current CBA.
Jon Singleton signed 5 yr/ 10M with the Astros in 2014.
Freddy Peralta signed 5yr / 15.5M + 2 team options in 2020
Colt Keith signed 6yr / 28.5 + 3 team options in 2024
With that kind of leverage over a player, it is surprising that more players aren’t signing deals like Singleton and Peralta. Keith’s is relatively generous in comparison.
Not to mention Joe Mack is an all-time great name for a catcher.
He’s the Mack!
And I hope Ryan can pitch well with us so we can have some “Mucho Gusto” promo days here in Miami.
Ramirez has not played an inning of 1B in the majors. Why do people keep saying he looked bad at first?
That’s just Nick Deeds. He’s legally required to make a glaring mistake in every article
Wouldn’t mind Boston trading some pitching for Mack
Marlins won’t play in 2026 with any GUSTO !!
I thought Augustin was a defender at DH I don’t know why the writer thinks he was only average
Gus Bus hits like a DH. Fields like a DH. Walks like a DH. Talks like a DH. Looks like a DH. By golly, I think he’s a DH.
Let’s get the Mack back behind the plate this year right after we’ve earned that extra year of control!
No Abs in 27
Are suggesting intentionally
manipulating Joe Mack’s service time
by forcing him to sign an extension or the Marlins should intentionally “yank his chain”
and bury Joe Mack in the minors for another 2-3 years?!
That reads like it could turn into a major MLB grievance that the Marlins would, most likely, lose.
Joe Mack is the best catcher on the Marlins roster.
Many teams hold their top prospects in the minors until June to get an extra year of service time.
Mack should be up this year sooner rather than later to start at catcher.
If not, his agent(s) could have something to say about it.