Cardinals manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including Dan Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) today that right-hander Hunter Dobbins will begin the season on the injured list. Dobbins is still rehabbing from the ACL tear he suffered back in July as a member of the Red Sox. That was always likely to be the case given the typical recovery timeline that comes with injuries of that sort.
There is good news to report regarding Dobbins’s progress, however. Guerrero notes that Dobbins has been able to build up his arm strength throughout Spring Training but is not yet fully built up in terms of fielding. He spent most of spring throwing live bullpens but appeared in backfields game yesterday, his first in-game action of camp. Guerrero adds that Dobbins was held back from covering first base during the game but will continue his fielding progression moving forward.
The 26-year-old made his big league debut with Boston last year. An eighth-round pick back in 2021, he made 13 appearances (11 starts) in the majors, with a 4.13 ERA in 61 innings of work. That was good for an exactly league average ERA+ of 100, though his FIP was a more impressive 3.87. Dobbins did not strike out many batters (17.6%) but kept his walk rate down to just 6.6% and generated grounders at a strong 48.4% clip. It was a solid debut overall that offered some reason for optimism that Dobbins could be a quality #4 starter in the majors, though with Tommy John surgery and two ACL tears on his resume the biggest challenge for the righty might be simply staying healthy.
As for 2026, Dobbins’s timeline for return isn’t known just yet, though the fact that St. Louis has not felt the need to put him on the 60-day injured list to this point in the spring is certainly at least somewhat encouraging. The Cardinals are surely hoping to get Dobbins onto the roster sooner rather than later. The righty was a key piece of the return in the Willson Contreras this offseason and was brought in to help fill out a rather thin pitching staff.
With Dobbins sidelined, there’s relatively little intrigue in the team’s upcoming rotation decisions. Veteran free agent addition Dustin May figures to join Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, and Michael McGreevy in four of the five spots in the Cards’ rotation to open the year. That leaves one spot available in the rotation that figures to come down to either Richard Fitts or Kyle Leahy with Dobbins starting the year on the injured list. Top prospect Tink Hence doesn’t appear ready for a big league debut quite yet with zero Triple-A starts on his resume, so the team’s starting depth will be rather limited after that group of six for as long as Dobbins is on the shelf.
Tink Hence is on a reliever’s program this spring. He’ll probably start the year in the Memphis (AAA) bullpen.
The Cardinals haven’t completely given up on Hence as a starter in the future, but they have to see some progress. He probably won’t start a game all season unless he shoves *and* stays healthy.
Fitts has outpitched many of those other starter contenders mentioned in spring training, but all six starters will probably make the opening day roster.
I’m sorry, did you say Tink Hence?
Writer isn’t very well-informed. Quin Mathews will be in the wings in AAA, as will several other intriguing arms. Their pitching will be just fine, thank you.