2025 was a season to forget for Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Young award winner looked to be establishing himself as one of the top pitchers in the entire sport just a few years ago, but that reputation has slipped the past few years due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Tommy John surgery Alcantara underwent in late 2023 wiped out his 2024 season. While he returned in time for the start of 2025, he wasn’t an effective starter for most of the year. Overall, he entered 2026 with a 4.73 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.15 FIP in 59 starts since receiving his aforementioned Cy Young. Those numbers are closer to a fifth starter than an ace and questions over what the righty could really offer a team at this point helped keep him in Miami through last year’s trade deadline and this past winter.
Three starts into his 2026 campaign, Alcantara already seems to be changing the narrative. The righty has posted a sterling 0.74 ERA in 24 1/3 innings of work across his trio of outings this season. Those results are obviously excellent, but Alcantara’s trademark ability to pitch deep into games has been on full display as well; he’s averaged more than eight innings per start so far this year. Neither the sub-1.00 ERA nor his 240-inning pace will continue all year, of course, but what can fans expect from the righty this year?
There are some signals that Alcantara’s hot start to the year might be a mirage. The right-hander has limited his opponents to a .159 BABIP that will be impossible to maintain and sits more than a hundred points below his career norm. He’s also enjoyed a very easy schedule for the start of the season, facing off against bottom-feeders like the Rockies and White Sox while catching the Reds at a time where most of their lineup is scuffling badly. Given that level of competition, it would be understandable to exercise caution regarding the righty until he proves effective against some more challenging offenses.
That’s not to say there isn’t reason for optimism, however. The most obvious one is that Alcantara is now a full year removed from his Tommy John rehab, and his last season where he didn’t deal with elbow troubles or the aftermath of that surgery was his Cy Young 2022 campaign. That’s further supported by the fact that Alcantara improved drastically over the course of the 2025 season. After carrying a ghastly 7.22 ERA into last year’s All-Star break, he posted a 3.33 ERA with a 3.89 FIP the rest of the way, including a 2.62 ERA and 24.9% strikeout rate in the final six weeks of the regular season. When looking at the second half of 2025 in conjunction with the start of the 2026 season, Alcantara looks a whole lot like the ace he once was with a 2.75 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 48.6% ground ball rate, and a 15.5 K-BB% in 108 innings of work across 16 starts.
Zooming back in on his performance so far in 2026, Alcantara’s strikeout and walk rates are better than they’ve been since his Cy Young season and his ground ball rate is trending back up after dropping to just 46.5% last year. The most encouraging sign so far is the complete lack of hard contact Alcantara has allowed. That was the righty’s biggest issue in 2023 and ’25, and while those numbers will take some time to stabilize, things look very encouraging so far in 2026. He’s allowed just one barrel so far this year and his 28.6% hard-hit rate is exceptional thus far. It would be a shock to see those rates stay that low all year, but if he can post a barrel rate in the five to six percent range and a hard-hit rate under 40%, that would leave his profile looking a lot more like it did at his peak than in the years surrounding his surgery, when he combined for a 7.8% barrel rate and a 42.6% hard-hit rate.
How do MLBTR readers think Alcantara’s 2026 season will shake out this year? Will he re-establish himself as one of the league’s top pitchers? If not, will he at least return to being a clearly above-average starter in terms of run prevention for the first time since 2022, or is this hot start merely a flash in the pan? Have your say in the poll below:
Sandy looks like his old self. He’s an old-school work horse. I hope he has a long career.
He’s back…and will be traded.
I mean, the Marlins are doing pretty damn good in their division for now.
He might be the final guy that can do 7+ innings consistently
Logan Webb says..Not.
The Rockies have been hammering the ball they have no pitching and the Reds have a good lineup so to say he did it against weak competition is not true, he’s dealing
No.
Marlins fans are very fortunate to have him.
Alcantara is striking out 20.9% or just 6.7 per 9, his BABip is .159, LD% is 9.5, and HR/9 is 0.00.
During the best stretch of his career he had a 21.4% K rate, .274 BABip, 21.4% LD rate, and 2.5% HR rate.
So far this season he has been extremely lucky and luck never holds. Prior to the season starting I projected an ERA around 4.20-4.30 for the season in 28-30 starts and I have seen nothing that would change that.
Oh please. Watch the games. He’s back. In total control. I’m not worried about him. He’s a big guy. Great conditioning. He’s dominating and is only getting better. Marlins are going to have a very tough decision this summer deciding to clean house from the dodgers or yankees. And I assume the loser of the Sandy sweepstakes rents Skubal. But either way, Sandy is back.
I don’t find anything wrong with what Skip had to say.
It’s an absolute certainty that Alcantara’s BABIP won’t remain at .159, his HR% wont remain at 0%, and his LD rate won’t stay at 9.5%.
Increase the BAA against him by 120 points and his HR% to 2.5%, both the best he has ever been for an extended time, and he is a high 3 to low 4 ERA starting pitcher this season.
It really astounds and confounds how many people that claim to actually watch the games are willing to ignore history and proclaim the second coming after 3 games.
ok cool pal. No one is claiming he’s going to have the exact same success as he’s had these first 3 games all season long. The question was “is he back?” And from what I’ve seen. Yes he’s back to Cy Young contending form. I’m gonna go ahead and put it on record that I believe Sandy will have an ERA significantly lower than 4.3. Also, isn’t it wild how so many of the truly elite players statistically are “luckier” than average? Look it up. Almost like it isn’t entirely luck. Even when it’s a luck-based statistic like BABip.
Don’t be so easily astounded. You sound foolish.
You were claiming he would have the exact same success. “Oh please. Watch the games. He’s back. In total control.”
I showed exactly why he won’t have the same success. I showed why I believe by the end of the season he will be around a 4.20-4.30 ERA. Right now he is not a dominant pitcher as his SO% shows. He is a lucky pitcher. His performance will regress towards the mean which means his BABip will climb 120-140 points, his BAA will go up at least that much, he will allow HRs, and his ERA will climb into the low 4s.
Its really stupid to try to judge performance off 3 games even if you watched the games. Just look at Chris Bassitt, Tyler Megill, and Martin Perez last season.
He’s not giving up any hard contact and he doesn’t walk anybody. This is going to be a 3 ERA season for Alcantara with 200 innings if he’s healthy.
I could see him ending up with a 3.90 – 3.95 ERA if all goes well. I can also see him ending up with a 4.50 ERA.
Its early in the season and pitchers are supposed to be ahead of hitters. Last season at this point hitters had a .696 OPS and ended up at .719. This season they have a .687 OPS and will end up somewhere close to last season ending number.
So far Alcatarna has been extremely lucky, not dominant as his whiff and SO rates show.
I’ll take it a step further and say the Marlins are for real. Fifth best record in baseball dating back to June of last year. Can’t wait to see what they can do when Stowers comes back and is healthy.
Is this news? He had an adjustment returning from surgery and then was one of the best SP in second half last year.
Average start was 6+ innings, 2 er
He had a 3.33 ERA/3.89 FIP in 13 starts in the 2nd half.
Injured by the end of May. Throws less than 80 innings
I think he will throw more than 100 innings, maybe even more than 150 innings, with an ERA of 4.20-4.30
I think Alcantara will be very good this season and also next season to land himself a big deal.
Alcantara had it in his back pocket the entire time.
Snelling, White, Fulton, loaded farm to add at the deadline if they are competitive, they could add a starter or two and make a run at it yet.
Its going to be a difficult decision for the Marlins in July if they are within striking distance of the division and/or a wild card.
Alcantara at the top of his game, two years removed from TJ, that could be an epic haul if they do trade him.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think it’s going to be another rough year for Alcantara. An ERA of 4.50 or worse.
I see a Sandy Alcantara healthy, fully recovered from his TY surgery, pitching over 150 innings and an ERA in the middle or low .300.
Silly poll. He’s absolutely back. 85 pitch complete games back.
Silly Sean. Trying to make a judgement on 3 games in which Alcantara was not dominant with below average SO% and about average whiff rates. Alcantara was lucky for 3 games in which his fielders made some incredible plays hence a BABIP 120 points below his career best for a season and in which he has not yet given up a HR. Luck never holds.
After his last outing I guess we have an answer to that question.