The Cubs kicked off the 2026 season with a pair of notable extensions. They locked up star center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and veteran second baseman Nico Hoerner on contracts that will keep both players in town through the end of the 2032 season. Even after extending Hoerner (who was a pending free agent prior to signing), however, the Cubs are in position to lose a lot of talent this offseason. Sixty percent of the club’s starting rotation (Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon) is slated to hit free agency after the season. This is also catcher Carson Kelly‘s final year under contract.
The most notable players the team stands to lose to free agency, however, are Crow-Armstrong’s partners in the outfield: left fielder Ian Happ and right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Whether a deal will come together with either Happ or Suzuki remains to be seen. As of two months ago, both Happ and Suzuki indicated that they had not spoken to the Cubs about extensions yet. That can change with one phone call, of course, but there’s been no evidence to this point that the sides have engaged in talks so far. On the surface, the argument for extending one or both of the team’s corner outfielders seems fairly obvious: both have been consistently productive for Chicago.
Happ is now in his tenth season as a major league player, and he’s never posted a below average season by measure of wRC+ in that time. Since the departure of the core that won the World Series in 2016, Happ has been the club’s longest-tenured player and a consistent presence on offense. From 2022 onwards, he’s slashed .250/.346/.435 (119 wRC+) overall with remarkable year-to-year consistency. His wRC+ has fallen between 116 and 122 in each of the last four years, and on defense each of those seasons has ended with him being awarded the NL’s Gold Glove for his work in left field. Aside from his on-field value, Happ also holds a meaningful place in Cubs history with a chance to finish the year in the franchise’s top 10 all time for home runs.
Suzuki, on the other hand, joined the Cubs after coming over from Japan ahead of the 2022 season and has only improved across his four years with the club. A career .269/.346/.472 (127 wRC+) hitter in the majors, he’s been arguably the Cubs’ most productive bat during his time with the club. Since arriving in the majors in 2022, Suzuki’s the 11th-best outfielder in the majors by wRC+ (minimum 1500 plate appearances). That puts him just behind Byron Buxton and Julio Rodriguez, sitting just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Corbin Carroll. Those are middle-of-the-order superstars that Suzuki is rubbing elbows with from a statistical perspective, and that sort of impact can be tough to replace.
That’s not to say extending either player is necessarily a slam-dunk decision, as both certainly come with flaws. Both will celebrate their 32nd birthdays in August, putting them near the end of their prime years. Neither is exactly a complete player, either. Suzuki’s offensive impact cannot be denied, but his defensive struggles in the outfield are well-documented and led to him spending most of the 2025 campaign as the club’s DH. He’s also struggled to stay healthy in the majors, having only played 150 games once in his career. He already started 2026 on the injured list due to a knee injury he suffered during the World Baseball Classic.
Happ, on the other hand, is a more well-rounded player but the offensive production he offers is a lot easier to come by. Taylor Ward, Teoscar Hernandez, Brendan Donovan, Jarren Duran, Anthony Santander, Randy Arozarena, and Brandon Nimmo are all within three points of Happ’s wRC+ from 2022-25 in one direction or the other. All of those players are quality pieces, but that group is undeniably a step down from the rarefied air Suzuki’s numbers put him in.
One key factor that has not yet been mentioned regarding the Cubs’ decisions on Suzuki and Happ is the availability of quality alternatives. Arozarena is set to reach free agency this year and is comparable to Happ and Suzuki in terms of both age and productivity, but they’re undoubtedly the top three corner outfielders on the market this winter. Players like Trent Grisham and Ramon Laureano lack the lengthy track records offered by Happ and Suzuki, while someone like George Springer comes with even more substantial age-related concerns given that he’ll turn 37 this September. If the Cubs are going to dip into free agency for outfield help this winter, they’ll be hard pressed to find an upgrade over the guys they already have.
In terms of internal options to replace the duo, the Cubs are quite thin. Top outfield prospect Owen Caissie was dealt to Miami over the offseason to land Edward Cabrera. Kevin Alcantara is a well-regarded prospect currently hitting very well at Triple-A, but the 23-year-old has struggled in limited chances in the majors and draws significant value from his defense in center field, a position he won’t play on a team that features Crow-Armstrong. 2025 first-rounder Ethan Conrad is very well-regarded in prospecting circles but still years away from the majors. Matt Shaw was displaced from third base by the addition of Alex Bregman and has gotten some reps in right field while Suzuki is on the shelf, but he was a below-average offensive player last year and had no experience in the outfield before this spring.
How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should handle the outfield corners going forward? Should they extend one or both of their current veterans, or let them both walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:
They should have sold high on one-half wonder PCA, but I suppose that’s not going to happen.
Yeah that contract may not age well. But hes got swag and tri color hair to celebrate Bastille day by
20/30/30 mil per year in his last two seasons. yikes. Better hope he makes those first three 10mil seasons count.
But even if the offense is terrible, he still has his defense and speed
Andrew McCutcheon says hi
PCA was batting .179 this time last year. Calm down.
Yeah if he bats .180 that’s bonus money!
Please, please, please let happ go. I’ve seen enough of and know what he’s not capable of. Let him be someone else’s problem.
Happ a nice guy tho with his social justice coffee brand connect roasters where you get dinger dollars for good deeds like picking up dog waste or walking the old grandbana across the street
I much prefer Shaw with his barefoot and pregnant wife trailing behind him.
I bet San Fran would like taking him for a bag of new balls.
Yeah who wants a gold glove left fielder who consistently puts up around a 4 WAR. Dude put the team on his back the final month of the season and kept the Cubs from having another epic collapse.
He is a gamer with an admittedly lower ceiling as the article notes. Has certainly gotten the max of his skills much like his manager Craig when he was a player.
That was Hoerner.
Id rather have Seiya, but regardless of who they lose, it would’ve been nice to have Caissie step up
I’d start my own poll if I could. Tell me Cub fans, If I could convince Suzuki to waive his NTC and trade him to the Dodgers so he could play with all his Japanese friends for Tanner Scott 1 for 1 to help the pathetic bullpen would you make that deal? I would in a heartbeat. I would also trade Ballesteros for a P if I could get one. Whadda ya say?
Why would the Dodgers need Suzuki?
Who’s better, Teoscar or Seiya? I say Seiya. The money works out and saves the Dodgers money since they signed Diaz. A better question is , Why wouldn’t they want him?
Why would the Dodgers need to save money? They don’t need another outfielder and Scott and Diaz is a lethal back end combo. Reckon they’d rather keep Scott than have an outfield logjam.
So you’re trading your best offensive threat for a relief pitcher who was pretty pathetic last year and has 3 years and $56 million dollars left on his contract???
Unclemike, that seems like a very overreacting move on your part. There is nothing sane about that trade poll.
If there are 100 people answering your poll and you are one of them I’m guessing the results would be about 97-3 against.
Well if you think the Cubs can still win the division with that bullpen, That Bench and No Cade Horton, I hope you have a really good supply of drugs to choose from. Cause you’ll need em.
So you are confirming you are one of the three.
If you have ever collected baseball cards you will notice that there is a back side to every one of them. Thats to show how things tend to even out.
Did you happen to see the start of the Cubs game tonight? First inning graphic showed the Cubs THIRD in baseball behind the Dodgers and Rangers in hard hit rate…yet have a bunch of guys hitting below .200. Things always level out. Tonight everything smoked is finding a corner. Last five games it was right at someone.
And yes, I think the Cubs can still win the division….whether they win tonight or not.
Uncle–please understand what you are doing again—for my money 6x made a very, very, very strong point (if it were me I would have tagged your Scott fetish or agenda) and you jump back in and tell him he needs a good supply of drugs.
Why can’t you PLEASE just sit back and at the very least slow down on the reactionary retorts?
It truly is ten games out of a season and although the luck has been extremely poor to start on a lot of levels—things do tend to normalize over time.
If injuries pile up and the Cubs keep hitting smoke at players it will be tough to make the playoffs, but let’s at least quit being so low when there is no reason to. PLEASE.
I’m not sure if you guys are up on current events but the Brewers have been hit worse than the Cubs with injuries and are still 4 games ahead of the Cubs with their SUBS. I’d call that a reaction.
I’ll try and break it down as simple as I can so you guys don’t have to interpret or change around what I say for your own amusement. The problem with the Cubs Vs. Brewers is:
1) Hoyer doesn’t use the guys the Cubs draft because he doesn’t trust them no matter how good they look because he has brain damage and keeps spending useless money he doesn’t have to.
Or
2) The guys the Cubs have for scouts have no idea what they’re doing and keep drafting worse players than the Brewers. Who
are hired by Hoyer BTW.
One of those statements is true. Which one is it? Bring it.
Because I’ve been watching the same script for the last 4 years in a row and it’s getting old. The Cubs had 7 guys in the top 100 prospects a couple of years ago. 1 made it Shaw. Well Ballesteros too but he’s one dimensional. The others will never be here because they’re blocked for about 5 years now.
Uncle—bringing it—here’s a short list of guys Hoyer has used from drafts or are prospects playing in addition to Shaw and Ballesteros…that have made it.
Happ
Hoerner
Amaya
PCA
Busch
That’s five guys in the starting lineup on a daily basis.
And you can certainly go back to guys like Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Schwarber if you’d like.
Baseball happens to be a game that you can only play nine guys…it’s not like basketball, hockey, football that you can interchange players every ten seconds.
AND your poll was: WOULD YOU TRADE SEIYA FOR TANNER SCOTT—somehow YOU injected the Brewers into this.
I’m sure nobody in Milwaukee is getting as emotional as you about being three games ahead of the Cubs on April 7th
Uncle Mike
I would vote a resounding “no” on trading Seiya for Tanner.
If Cubs do acquire a pitcher, it should be a starter, not a relief pitcher.
I thought that your language “so he could play with all his Japanese friends” came across bigoted.
Really? That’s what you got? Wow. You can’t deny they seem to be trying to collect the full set.
The Dodgers would love that trade. They get a walk year from a very good hitting outfielder and get to dump Scott’s contract on the Cubs. They have plenty of other relievers who can set up for Diaz.
Is there any reason to assume he is friends with the Japanese players other than he happened to be born in the same country of 123 million people?
Nothing except the fact that when he was injured for the 2023 WBC they took his jersey everywhere and hung it in the dugout for every game and when they won carted it around like that clown in Wrigley runs around with that W sign when they win. You know , The kind of thing that you do when you hate somebodies guts. You don’t have CTE do you? It’s pretty common knowledge they’re all good friends. Well to most people anyway.
I would let Happ walk. Try to keep Suzuki but not sure if that’ll be possible.
Both may be somewhat ruffled by not being extended this season.
Cubs should extend both.
They will have a difficult time replacing either in FA.
It’s definitely Suzuki, Happ, Grisham, Ward, Arozarena, Varsho at the top of the class in ’27. Garcia, Laureano, Andujar and Hays offer potential bargains. Springer might be a one year deal but Suzuki and Happ could be the two best and they have the opportunity to get both signed before the off season.
Its a tough spot. Signing Crow-Armstrong, Bregman and Hoerner in some way makes it an easier decision and that decision should be to win now. They are going to have to pay up though and if they dont they risk losing both and having an OF of Alcantara, Crow Armstrong and Shaw in ’27 – woof.
Offer them both QOs if they have decent years. Although the free agent market will be weak, maybe one of them will have to take it because teams may not want to offer a multi-year deal to a going-on-33- year old corner outfielder and lose a draft pick.
With a possible lockout looming. I could actually see Happ sign a one year extension at the same level as the QO but with a 5 million signing bonus.
Amazingly this has flown over sport writers heads, the reason you see so many young players signing extensions right now is because of the CBA expiring. Guys are looking to secure some financial stability, ie signing bonuses, in the event the season is lost or shortened.
Seiya would be the better choice of the two.
Thy should give them both high fives and give them spicy chicken sandwiches from Wendy’s.
Profound Analysis Beavis
I am Cornholio
This is an easy decision, saddle both the QO at the end of the season.
The future in the outfield is Shaw and Conrad, they need a bridge, likely, at one of the corner outfield positions since Conrad still hasn’t played. Depending on how Conrad plays when he finally does make his debut, that bridge could actually be Kepley who’s an advanced contact hitter and a plus defender.
Was Shaw really high on the prospect lists or something?? Cubs fans seem so high on him but he seems like a JAG to me.
I’ve always said Suzuki was a terrible signing. Offer him the QO and let him walk. Work out a 3 year contract with Happ but at a rate less than the $20 million a year or so he is at now. Sign a bridge guy until Kepley and Conrad are ready in 2028.
Because the 2 kids come with guarantees I guess? Plus Happ should just take a cut on a short deal because? C’mon.
If you believe in WAR then Happ is the better player. While he is streaky at the dish he’s gold in the field. At 33 going into free agency I suspect he will be more affordable. Defense is important. He also stays on the field. Shaw has been steadily improving since his debut last year. Out of Alcantara, Cassie, and Shaw I’ll take Shaw. Alcantara would be a whiff machine at the major league level. Without even looking at the numbers – just watching the games I’d bet Shaw was at least league average his last half season in the majors.
Happ will be more affordable than Seiya due to age? Happ is 6 days older.
Happ also walks a lot, which boosts the WAR.
I’d take Suzuki in Toronto right now with the way our offense is sputtering
I didn’t realize both players have a high Walk rate? How about a trade instead?
Both have full NTCs.
Considering the dearth of good outfielders on the free agent market they should push to resign at least one of the two.
Free agency is not the only way to get an OF.
Extend Seiya before ever considering extending Happ.
Please let Seiya walk so he can sign with Philly in ’27
If they are interested in retaining either one, Suzuki is the clear player to prioritize. He’s younger and has a higher ceiling. They could likely get similar production as Happ in free agency and spend less money. Obviously, if for whatever reason they have fallen out of the race by the deadline, trading both players should be the answer, bringing something into the system and then pursuing Suzuki in free agency (if they haven’t worked out an extension prior to the deadline).
Age over the next contract factors. Both are short deals 3+ opt. If they want to be paid bye.
I see this as a simple solution. Jed will not over pay them and it will be their decision.
as far as who matters more? Suzuki but as a DH getting 60-70 games in the OF. When he is hitting it changes the team dynamic. Happ is replaceable in LF. RF deals with the sun and cross winds. LF plays strait. Happ has been chilling in the easy zone collecting worthless gold vs taking on the challenge of RF.
So he is over rated. Yesterday he was out of the line up and they put up 9 runs with out him. PCA and Baller woke up and Bregman got 3 hits batting 3rd.
Happ is not needed. His value is based off of a lack of quality in LF due to it being a bat first position league wide.
These have to be the most evenly split poll results I’ve seen on this site. It’s not an easy decision. I lean towards extending Suzuki and letting Happ walk, but I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Cubs extended both. There just aren’t enough higher-quality corner outfielders available in the offseason, so the only other option would be overpaying for a good one via trade. I’m not sold on Alcantara and Shaw; both need to prove themselves at the plate.
If Baller can not catch then retaining Suzuki for LF makes the most sense. His a better hitter than Happ and LF is cheese at home.
If you invest RF is the place. Conrad is 2 years out and not a sure thing. RF is the spot to trade for. I would look at Ari first. They fall out then they makes sense to deal with. Other teams are more of a reach.
If there is control then Wiggins should be on the table.
Retain Happ
Let Seiya walk
Start Alcantara
Give Amaya 120 gamws at C
Get Ballesteros a nutritionist
must be a Brewers fan.
There shouldn’t be a comma before “either.”