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Ian Happ

Cubs Activate Ian Happ, Option Moises Ballesteros

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2:35pm: The Cubs have announced the Happ/Ballesteros swap as well as Hodge landing on the IL. Right-hander Ethan Roberts has been recalled as the corresponding move for Hodge.

10:28am: The Cubs are welcoming Ian Happ back from the injured list for tonight’s game in Miami, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer tells the Mully & Haugh Show on 670 The Score. Rookie Moisés Ballesteros will be optioned to Triple-A Iowa.

That’s not the only forthcoming roster move. Manager Craig Counsell told Maddie Lee of The Chicago Sun-Times last night that Porter Hodge is heading to the 15-day IL with a left oblique injury. They could recall someone from Triple-A this afternoon to take Hodge’s bullpen spot, though it’s possible they’ll activate Ryan Brasier from his own IL stint instead.

The Happ/Ballesteros swap is a reversal of last week’s roster move. Chicago placed the veteran outfielder on the 10-day IL, retroactive to May 10, with a left oblique strain. That was evidently very mild, as he’s back after a minimal stint despite the tendency for many oblique strains to linger for weeks. Ballesteros was called up for the first time. Hoyer said this morning that Ballesteros was aware at the time that it’d be a brief promotion no matter how well he played, as the Cubs always intended to send him back down once Happ returned from what they expected to be a minimal IL stint.

Ballesteros, 21, was raking at .368/.420/.522 clip over 34 games in Iowa. He’s a career .288/.371/.459 minor league hitter despite consistently being one of the youngest players at each level at which he’s appeared. He didn’t produce much in his first look at MLB pitching, going 3-16 with a pair of walks over five games. He hit a run-scoring single off the White Sox’s Yoendrys Gómez for his first big league hit on Friday and had his first multi-hit effort in last night’s loss to the Marlins.

The Cubs used Ballesteros strictly as a designated hitter over the past week. He’s a polished offensive player but needs to continue developing as a catcher in Iowa. Happ’s return to the lineup will push Seiya Suzuki back to DH from left field. Happ will presumably slot back at the top of the batting order. He’s hitting .269/.364/.381 through 187 plate appearances.

Hodge, 24, has been Counsell’s most frequent choice in high-leverage situations. He has allowed a 5.12 ERA through 19 1/3 innings. His 22.6% strikeout rate is way down from last year’s excellent 31.7% mark. It’s not especially strong production overall, though the lackluster ERA is mostly attributable to one six-run blowup at the hands of the Diamondbacks a month ago. He has allowed three earned runs in 9 2/3 frames since that appearance, albeit with six strikeouts and walks apiece.

Ryan Pressly entered the season as the Cubs closer. He has not pitched well and has not recorded a save since April 13. Hodge had been leading something of a committee approach to the ninth inning. Daniel Palencia has stepped up as one of Counsell’s more trusted late-game arms. The Cubs called on him for what would’ve been his first save of the season last night. He entered the ninth inning with a 7-6 lead and quickly recorded the first two outs before allowing a double, a walk, and a two-run walk-off triple to Jesús Sánchez.

Cubs Promote Moises Ballesteros

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May 13: The Cubs have formally selected Ballesteros’ contract, per a team announcement. Happ heads to the 10-day IL, as expected, while a 40-man roster spot was freed up by transferring righty Tyson Miller from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL. Miller has been out all season due to a hip impingement.

May 12: The Cubs intend to promote catching prospect Moisés Ballesteros for tomorrow’s game against the Marlins, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Ian Happ is headed to the 10-day injured list, Levine adds. Happ has missed the past three games with oblique discomfort. Ballesteros is not on the 40-man roster, so the Cubs will need to make another move in that regard.

Ballesteros, 21, is one of the top young offensive players in the minors. He’s a career .288/.371/.459 hitter over five professional seasons. His production has remained remarkably consistent as he has climbed the ladder. Ballesteros has posted an OPS above .800 at each stop. That includes a ..311/.368/.477 slash for Triple-A Iowa over the past two seasons.

The lefty-hitting Ballesteros has been on fire to begin this year. He’s out to a .368/.420/.522 start over his first 34 Triple-A contests. He has connected on four homers, seven doubles and one triple while limiting his strikeout rate to a minuscule 10.7% clip. Among hitters with 100+ plate appearances, he’s second in the International League in batting average and ranks among the top 11 hitters in both on-base percentage and slugging. He’s seventh in the league in OPS, and every other player in the top 10 is at least 24 years old.

Unsurprisingly, Ballesteros’ bat has always been his calling card on scouting reports. He was viewed as an advanced hitter when he signed for $1.5MM out of Venezuela during the 2021 amateur signing period. He climbed towards the top of an excellent Chicago farm system as he continued to prove himself against higher-level pitching.

Ballesteros ranked among the league’s Top 100 prospects on offseason lists from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, Keith Law of The Athletic and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him outside his offseason Top 100 but ranked him sixth in the Cubs’ system in December. He is up to 37th overall on BA’s in-season update.

The reports are quite similar across the board. He’s praised for his well-rounded offensive ability but faces questions about his defensive fit. Ballesteros is listed at 5’8″ and has a heavyset build (though he’s reportedly slimmed down a bit in recent years). He’s drawn comparisons to Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk as a result. Kirk has developed into a solid defensive catcher but faced questions about his glove as a prospect. There are perhaps even greater concerns about Ballesteros’ receiving acumen and ability to control the running game. Opponents have gone 27-31 in stolen base attempts in his 191 1/3 innings as a catcher this season.

It’s unlikely that he’ll get much work behind the dish in the short term. Carson Kelly has obliterated opponents to a .303/.443/.671 slash over his first 25 games. Miguel Amaya has an impressive .286/.309/.506 line over 22 contests. They’ve been the National League’s most productive catching tandem. Ballesteros can occasionally spell Michael Busch at first base, but his clearest path to at-bats would come as a designated hitter. Seiya Suzuki has drawn into left field while Happ has been day-to-day. Suzuki should play left regularly for the extent of Happ’s IL stint.

Happ has been out to a typically productive start at the top of Craig Counsell’s batting order. He owns a .269/.364/.381 line through 187 plate appearances. His power numbers are a bit lighter than usual, but the on-base mark would be the best of his career. He’d been amidst an 0-14 skid leading up the injury but had collected hits in seven straight games before that. His IL stint can be backdated to May 10, meaning he’ll be eligible to return next week.

It remains to be seen if Ballesteros will stick with the big league club once Happ is healthy. He’s past the point where he can accrue a full year of service time through the traditional means, though he meets the prospect criteria to potentially earn a bonus service year via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. He’d get a full service year if he finishes top two in Rookie of the Year voting. The Cubs would not receive an extra draft choice in that instance because they didn’t promote him early enough in the season. If this is a permanent promotion, Ballesteros would be well-positioned to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player during the 2027-28 offseason even if he doesn’t earn the full service year.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images.

Players Linked To Union Discord Replaced In MLBPA Subcommittee Vote

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Back in March, disagreements within the Major League Baseball Players Association led to a battle for power within the union that was often framed as a mutiny or a coup. At that time, three active players were connected to the overthrow attempt: Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito and Ian Happ. Those three were on the MLBPA eight-player executive subcommittee but none of those three remain after recent voting, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic.

MLBTR readers who want a full refresher on the situation can check out these posts from March. The 2023-2024 offseason was miserable for players, as various teams dialed back spending, often citing declining TV revenue as the reason. Several players signed contracts that were far below initial expectations, most prominently the “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger.

On the heels of that winter, frustration boiled up within the players and they eventually appeared to be split into two camps. One camp attempted to replace deputy director Bruce Meyer with Harry Marino, and it was suggested by some that executive director Tony Clark also would have been ousted in the event Meyer was replaced. Ultimately, those efforts stalled out and the Clark/Meyer duo stayed atop the union’s leadership structure.

Marino had previously been the head of Advocates For Minor Leaguers, the group that unionized minor league players. The minor leaguers were placed under the MLBPA umbrella, with Marino and Meyer then negotiating with MLB the first ever collective bargaining agreement for minor league players. Minor leaguers received 34 of the 72 seats on the MLBPA executive board, but Marino and Meyer reportedly did not get along, with Marino leaving the union at some point.

Though Marino was out of the union, it seems he was well liked enough in some circles that this attempt was made to install him into a very prominent position. Despite the frustrating winter for players, Meyer had made some notable gains for players in the 2022 CBA, his first in this role. The competitive balance tax tiers all went up, though a fourth tier was added. The minimum salaries were also raised in notable fashion, and a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players was created, among other advancements for players.

Regardless, the frustration was real and significant enough to threaten Meyer and perhaps Clark in the leadership structure, though they ultimately survived. Back in March, Flaherty seemed to express regret about the way things played out, though he also seemed surprised by the way Marino proceeded.

“There was one phone call that went on that I put Tony in a bad position in, where Harry tried to push his way through,” Flaherty told Ken Rosenthal at the time. “He tried to pressure Tony, and Tony stood strong, said this is not going to happen. Tony has done nothing but stand strong in all of this. That was something I would love to take back. I never wanted Harry to be in Bruce’s position.” Flaherty repeated that he was not trying to replace Meyer. “I said he’s not somebody to replace Bruce, but if you guys want to listen to him, we can continue this conversation. Things got way out of hand after that.” Flaherty then went on to compliment Meyer for the job he had done with the recent CBA.

The MLBPA votes on those subcommittee spots every two years. The union announced this week a new subcommittee consisting of Chris Bassitt, Jake Cronenworth, Pete Fairbanks, Cedric Mullins, Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Marcus Semien and Brent Suter. Semien and Suter are the lone holdovers from the previous subcommittee.

As noted by Drellich, the subcommittee is significant because key matters are often settled with a 38-person vote. Each of the 30 teams have a representative with one vote, and the eight subcommittee members get the remaining eight votes. Those 30 team reps vote on the eight subcommittee members. The eight players selected this week will have their positions for the next two years, which aligns with the end of the current CBA, as that agreement goes until Dec. 2, 2026.

All relations between MLB and the MLBPA have appeared to be contentious in recent years, from CBA negotiations to the COVID-related shutdown to on-field rule changes. The most recent CBA involved a lockout of more than three months and came perilously close to canceling games. On the other hand, the two sides agreed in the middle of the 2024 campaign to redirect some CBT money towards teams that had lost broadcast revenue, a fairly rare instance of a notable financial decision made outside normal CBA talks.

With another round of collective bargaining due two years from now, the possibility of another lockout is also on the horizon. The league and the union will have plenty to work out, including the ongoing broadcast uncertainty, the international draft and other big-picture issues along with the typical bargaining topics like salaries, taxes and revenue sharing. As such, the developments within the union will have notable ramifications for the baseball world.

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  The utility Gold Glove was determined in a separate fashion, via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

National League winners….

American League winners….

NL Central Notes: Hall, Happ, Reds

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Left-hander DL Hall was a key piece of the return that the Brewers landed in the Corbin Burnes trade, and the club made clear upon acquiring him that Hall would be used as a member of the starting rotation despite the 25-year-old having been used almost exclusively out of the bullpen during his time in Baltimore. That experiment hasn’t gone well through Hall’s first four starts, however. Not only does Hall currently sport a 7.71 ERA with a walk rate (11.9%) that nearly matches his deflated strikeout rate (15.4%), but he’s also failed to record an out in the fifth inning in three of his four starts with the club.

Given those considerable struggles, it’s not necessarily surprising that Brewers manager Pat Murphy indicated after Hall’s start Saturday that the club might look to shift gears if Hall can’t get things on track. In conversation with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that evening, Murphy admitted that “there’s got to be adjustments made” for Hall to remain a member of the rotation, adding that the club “can’t keep letting him throw 3 1/3 and say ’that’s fine.'”

Hall is currently joined in the rotation by Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Joe Ross. Should the young southpaw find himself moved to the bullpen at some point, left-hander Aaron Ashby is one candidate to step into a rotation role, though he’s dealt with struggles of his own to this point in the season. Ashby was blown up in his lone big league start this year, allowing eight runs (four earned) in 3 2/3 frames. His time in the minors hasn’t gone much better, with a 9.28 ERA in three starts. If Ashby continues to be unable to get results, the Brewers may be best served simply waiting for right-hander Jakob Junis to return from the injured list after being sidelined by a shoulder impingement for the last two weeks before considering a change in Hall’s usage.

More from the NL Central…

  • Cubs left fielder Ian Happ was removed from Friday’s game against the Marlins in the seventh inning due to what manager Craig Counsell described to reporters (including Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network) as left hamstring tightness. Counsell described the move as “precautionary” at the time, though Happ was noticeably absent from both games in the club’s doubleheader on Saturday. It’s not yet clear if Happ will ultimately require a trip to the injured list for the issue, though it makes sense for the Cubs to be cautious regarding their left fielder after he suffered a mild strain of the same hamstring during Spring Training last month. Alexander Canario filled in for Happ yesterday in left field, while Mike Tauchman and Patrick Wisdom have combined to handle right field in the aftermath of Seiya Suzuki’s oblique injury.
  • Reds right-hander Ian Gibaut has missed the entire 2024 season to this point due to discomfort in his right forearm, and the club announced yesterday that he had been returned from his rehab assignment following “renewed” discomfort in the area. Per MLB.com’s injury tracker, manager David Bell recently indicated that Gibaut could resume his rehab assignment at some point this week. Even so, it’s unwelcome news for a Reds club that leaned heavily on the right-hander last year as he pitched to a strong 3.33 ERA in 75 2/3 innings of work. With Gibaut out of commission, the Reds have relied on Fernando Cruz and Emilio Pagan to set up for closer Alexis Diaz.

Scott Boras, Harry Marino Discuss MLBPA Dispute

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Recent reporting has painted a picture of a divided MLBPA, where some players are pushing for deputy director Bruce Meyer to be replaced by Harry Marino. One of the charges coming from the pro-Marino camp are that Meyer and executive director Tony Clark are too aligned with agent Scott Boras. Evan Drellich of The Athletic spoke to Boras and Marino while also reporting on various other factors of the feud.

“If you have great ideas, and you want those ideas to be promulgated in a manner that is beneficial to the union and the players they represent, you go to Tony Clark with your plan,” Boras said. “You discuss it with him first, and the many lawyers in the union. If you have issues with the union and you want to be involved with the union, you take your ideas to them. You do not take them publicly, you do not create this coup d’etat and create really a disruption inside the union. If your goal is to help players, it should never be done this way.”

Marino also provided comment: “The players who sought me out want a union that represents the will of the majority. Scott Boras is rich because he makes — or used to make — the richest players in the game richer. That he is running to the defense of Tony Clark and Bruce Meyer this morning is genuinely alarming.”

It’s understandable why there is frustration among the players right now, as the offseason has clearly not been kind to them. Many notable free agents remained unsigned into Spring Training and some are even languishing on the open market right now. Various teams are claiming to be at their respective spending limits, often due to uncertainty around TV revenue or competitive balance tax concerns.

Players like Jordan Montgomery, J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Brandon Belt, Donovan Solano, Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman and many others are currently unattached. In recent weeks, players like Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall, Tim Anderson, Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario, Randal Grichuk and others have signed for $5MM or less. Players like Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman were predicted for nine-figure deals at the start of the offseason but had to recently pivot to short-term, opt-out laden pacts.

On top of that, the players seem to have been rankled by the peculiar situation involving J.D. Davis and the Giants. He and the club went to an arbitration hearing, which he won, as the arbiters awarded him a $6.9MM salary for this year instead of the $6.5MM figure the club sought. Arbitration salaries are guaranteed if the sides avoid a hearing but not if they go to one. After the Giants signed Chapman and no longer needed Davis as their third baseman, they released him, only owing him 30 days’ termination pay of $1.11MM. He later signed with the Athletics for a $2.5MM guarantee and $1MM of incentives. Even if he unlocks all those bonuses, he’s still wind up losing more than $2MM by this series of events.

Casey Mize, the Tigers’ MLBPA player rep, spoke to Drellich about the various issues causing the upset. “I think if you went around the room and asked, I think everybody would give you a different answer,” Mize said. “Coming off the heels of this free agency is a pretty glaring one. But there’s tons of details. You could look at the J.D. Davis situation. You could look at free agency. I think you could look at the taxes of the CBT (competitive balance tax) stuff. So many guys are going to give you different answers, whether it’s service time or whatever. I don’t want to get into details of what frustrates me or what I heard last night, but in general, we’re just looking for ways to get better. Those are discussions we have all the time, and yeah, we had one last night.”

Drellich reports that this winter’s frustration has “banded together some agents and players” who have had past dissatisfaction with the union but without being spurred into action until now. The earlier reporting had suggested there was a “strained” relationship between Marino and Meyer, and Drellich depicts a split in the MLBPA between a Marino camp and a Meyer camp. The report adds that the fates of Clark and Meyer are tied, so that both would depart the MLBPA if Marino has enough support to be put into a leadership position. A scenario where Marino effectively replaces Meyer and works alongside Clark is seen as unlikely at this point.

Though it’s plain to see why the players may not be thrilled with the developments of this offseason, it’s surprising from a distance to see such animosity bubbling out into the public, as this isn’t the first time the players have faced difficulties with the economics of baseball. The executive director of the MLBPA has historically been a lawyer or labor leader, but Clark became the first former player to hold the position in 2013. The 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement, this first of his tenure, was widely panned for being a poor result for the players. Meyer was brought aboard in 2018 to help negotiate the next CBA, bringing with him his three decades of experience working with the player unions of the NBA, NHL and NFL.

It was generally perceived that the players made some gains with the current CBA that came out of the 2021-22 lockout. The minimum salary went up from $570K to $700K in 2022, and would continue to have annual increases, set to be $740K in the upcoming season. A pre-arbitration bonus pool was created to get more money to younger players. Salaries for arbitration-eligible players, which were previously not guaranteed for any of them, became guaranteed for those that avoided a hearing. A draft lottery was implemented with the hope of disincentivizing tanking.

The competitive balance tax lines also moved up noticeably, with the base threshold going from $210MM in 2021 to $230MM in 2022, further increasing annually with that threshold at $237MM this year. The other two thresholds holds moved up by comparable amounts. Though the current CBA did feature the addition of the fourth line, whereas there had previously only been three.

Harry Marino, meanwhile, led the effort to unionize minor leaguers. The MLBPA eventually became the collective bargaining arm of minor league players, which led to the first ever CBA for minor leaguers. Marino left the MLBPA after that, with Drellich reporting that his relationship with Meyer “soured significantly” during their time working together on that, but Marino appears to have resurfaced as the attempts to push out Meyer and/or Clark have gained momentum.

The exact nature of those disagreements isn’t clear but it seems that the frustrating offseason has brought them back to the surface and divided the players corps. It appears Marino and those in his camp are accusing Clark and Meyer of being too aligned with Boras. This is a charge that has arisen before, with Meyer calling it “absurd” back in 2021.

Drellich points out that Boras was upset when the players accepted the current CBA, believing they should have held out for more, particularly in terms of pushing the CBT. Though he also adds that many other players and agents viewed things from the opposite side. Based on the wording of Marino’s statement above, it appears his argument stems from the accusation that the union focuses too much on the “richest” players to the harm of others.

The MLBPA has an executive board that consists of 72 members and it was reported earlier today that 38 of those are major leaguers and 34 are minor leaguers. This report from Drellich specially mentions Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito and Ian Happ as players that are both on the board and also Marino supporters.

How Marino would do things differently to the Clark/Meyer leadership is unclear. Per Drellich, Marino’s supporters have been circulating a PowerPoint presentation consisting of eight slides. The full details of this aren’t clear but it apparently questions some of the MLBPA’s own spending decisions, in addition to the recent CBA negotiations.

Supporters of the Clark/Meyer camp, on the other hand, are pointing to track record. Meyer, as mentioned, has three decades of experience working with player unions in other sports. He has only been with the MLBPA since 2018 but has already gone toe-to-toe with MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and deputy commissioner Dan Halem, enduring a lockout that lasted more than three months and saw the players make some of the aforementioned gains. The Davis situation, though understandably frustrating, was possible with all arbitration-eligible players until this current CBA. While the new deal didn’t close that loop completely, it at least made arbitration salaries guaranteed for those who avoid a hearing. The CBT impacting league spending is also understandably annoying, but those thresholds moved up considerably with this CBA.

Marino, meanwhile, is just 33 years old and has far less on his résumé. Drellich relays that MLB found Meyer difficult to deal with and would be happy to see him go, something his defenders point to as a positive. As Drellich also points out, the league is naturally happy with any discord between the players as it will only help them in negotiating future CBAs.

Per today’s reporting, it seems the outcome is a binary, where the union will either stay the course with Clark/Meyer or make a significant pivot by going with a largely unknown quantity in Marino, a decision that could have ramifications for the players for years to come. The current CBA runs through the 2026 season.

NL Central Notes: Happ, Pirates, Liberatore

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Cubs left fielder Ian Happ won’t be appearing in games for the time being after he suffered a mild hamstring strain during a game earlier this week, club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Counsell added that the club remains “optimistic” that Happ will be ready for Opening Day, though he added that the 29-year-old will need to get additional reps in before Spring Training comes to a close in order to be ready for the start of the season.

The ninth-overall pick in the 2015 draft, Happ is entering the first year of the three-year, $61MM extension he inked with the Cubs early last season. The switch-hitter has settled in to become one of the club’s most reliable regulars in recent seasons, slashing a solid .259/.351/.435 (119 wRC+) across the past two seasons while earning his first career All Star appearance during the 2022 season and back-to-back Gold Glove awards in left field. In 2023, Happ posted a career-best 22.1% strikeout rate while walking at an impressive 14.3% clip. That strong plate discipline has left Happ as a key piece of the club’s core entering the 2023 season alongside the likes of Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner.

Losing Happ for any amount of time entering the regular season would surely be a blow to the Cubs, though Chicago has plenty of other options for its outfield mix available should their longest-tenured hitter start the season on the shelf. With top outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong expected to begin the season at the Triple-A level, the likes of Mike Tauchman and Alexander Canario figure to be the most likely options for a reserve outfield spot with the big league club to open the season currently on the 40-man roster. Veteran left fielder David Peralta is also in camp with the club after signing on a minor league deal last month, with slugging prospect Owen Caissie also among the club’s non-roster invitees.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Pirates outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Joshua Palacios have yet to appear this spring after being slowed by injuries entering camp, though manager Derek Shelton recently told reporters (including those at MLB.com) that each figures to see the field at some point in the next week. McCutchen, 37, has been working on defensive drills and taking swings this spring while rehabbing the partially torn achilles that ended his 2023 campaign in early September. The veteran figures to enter the 2024 season penciled in as the club’s regular DH, though he did make occasional appearances in right field last season. Palacios, meanwhile, figures to battle with the likes of Edward Olivares and Connor Joe for playing time in the outfield alongside regulars Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski. The 28-year-old slashed .239/.279/.413 in 91 games with Pittsburgh last year but has been slowed this spring by a lower leg injury.
  • Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore spoke to reporters (including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) recently about his goals for the coming season, and while he indicated that he still hopes to have a future with the club as a starting pitcher at some point, right now his priority is contributing in the majors regardless of his role. Liberatore struggled to a 5.88 ERA in 11 starts for the Cardinals last year but was dominant out of the bullpen, posting a 2.84 ERA in 12 2/3 innings of work with a 24.5% strikeout rate. The club’s starting five appears set with Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn all poised to take spots in the rotation, though Liberatore has stretched out as a starter alongside the likes of Zack Thompson with Worthy noting that manager Oli Marmol hasn’t ruled out the possibility of opening the season with a six-man rotation.

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team.  The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

The list of winners…

 

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Ian Happ, Juan Soto, Marcell Ozuna

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Episode 3 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple. You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • We discuss Tim’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings article, including the contract Shohei Ohtani might command, as well as the markets for Aaron Nola and Julio Urias (3:26)
  • The Cubs and Ian Happ agree to a surprising three-year, $61MM extension. So did the player or the club get better value out of this deal? (18:41)
  • A busy week on the extension front includes the Twins agreeing to a four-year, $73.5MM contract with starter Pablo Lopez. We discuss the improvements Lopez has made this season and give our thoughts on the contract (23:04)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Why do the Giants only seem willing to spend money on position players, and not starting pitchers?  This question also includes our thoughts on the Logan Webb contract (26:59)
  • As Juan Soto gets off to a slow start in 2023, is there any hope for him to return to his 2021 numbers and what does this mean for extension talks? (31:24)
  • Are the Braves wasting a roster spot on Marcell Ozuna? (36:22)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cubs Sign Ian Happ To Extension

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The Cubs have kept one of the top impending free agents off the market. Chicago announced a three-year extension with outfielder Ian Happ covering the 2024-26 seasons. It’s reportedly a $61MM guarantee and contains a full no-trade clause. Happ receives a $3MM signing bonus, successive $20MM salaries in 2024-25, and an $18MM salary in 2026.

It’s a frankly surprising deal for the player, given Happ’s proximity to the open market. He was set to reach free agency this offseason and would’ve done so at a relatively young age, as the 2024 campaign will be just his age-29 season. Recent open-market deals for free-agent corner outfielders suggest that Happ had a strong case for a lengthier and more lucrative deal than the one he inked to remain in Chicago. Kyle Schwarber (four years, $79MM), Nick Castellanos (five years, $100MM) and Andrew Benintendi (five years, $75MM) all topped that mark within the past two offseasons alone. Michael Conforto received a $36MM guarantee and a conditional opt-out clause last offseason after not playing a single game in the preceding season.

Happ is younger than Schwarber and Castellanos were in free agency, healthier and younger than Conforto was, and has a superior offensive track record to Benintendi. Granted, he strikes out more often and hits for a lower average, but Happ also reaches base more frequently and has a good bit more power than Benintendi. Dating back to the 2019 season, he’s a .254/.341/.461 hitter with 66 home runs, 84 doubles, five triples, 22 stolen bases, a 10.9% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate in 1608 trips to the plate.

By measure of wRC+, Happ has been 18% better than league-average over that span and 20% better than average in three of those four individual seasons. He’s substantially pared back his strikeout tendencies throughout his career, going from a sky-high 36.1% clip back in 2018 to a far more palatable 23.2% in 2022 (and 24.4% so far in 2023). Happ also enjoyed a career year with the glove in ’22, turning in a whopping 13 Defensive Runs Saved in left field. That netted him his first Gold Glove, and the overall strength of his 2022 performance sent him to his first All-Star Game last summer as well.

Beyond the recent contracts for fellow corner outfielders and Happ’s generally strong performance, the extension is surprising given the context of next winter’s free-agent class, which is set to be a decidedly pitcher-heavy group of names. After Rafael Devers and Manny Machado signed massive nine-figure extensions, Happ represented one of the best bats slated to reach the market, joining names like Teoscar Hernandez and Matt Chapman.

Happ’s contract certainly affords him a market-commensurate annual value for a player of this skill set, but it’s nonetheless a surprise to see him sign a short-term deal that delays his first trip to free agency until the completion of his age-31 season. Happ surely placed value on remaining with the only team he’s ever known, in the city he’s come to call home, and with the teammates he’s embraced as family. Ultimately, all contract extension of this nature are life-changing money that will set a player for generations, and even if the market was quite likely to bear a greater sum next winter, it’s easy enough to understand the allure from a pure human-interest standpoint.

From a team vantage point, the Cubs are surely thrilled to be able to retain a popular, productive core player without committing to a the lengthier market norms. Happ is the second member of the team’s core to delay his path to free agency with an atypically short deal, joining Nico Hoerner, whose recent three-year, $35MM contract extension bought out only one free-agent season. The Cubs are buying purely prime-aged years in both instances.

The Cubs already had about $127MM on the 2024 books, so Happ’s extension will likely push them to around $147MM in total commitments — assuming even distribution of salary over the three would-be free-agent years. The bulk of those commitments will come off the books the following season. In 2025-26, the Cubs will now have roughly $100MM committed to a quintet of players: Happ, Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Seiya Suzuki. For a team that’s previously topped $200MM in player payroll and lays claim to one of the most lucrative revenue streams in the sport, that ought to leave plenty of room for additional supplementation of that core via the free-agent market, trade market or by extending additional homegrown players in the same manner as they’ve done with Hoerner and now Happ.

Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation was first to report the Cubs and Happ were in agreement on a three-year, $61MM extension. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report the no-trade clause and the specific salary structure.

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