Trade Rumors: Rockies, Santana, Castellanos, Jays, Pirates, Realmuto
Before the Phillies traded Carlos Santana to the Mariners as part of the Jean Segura deal, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich told reporters (including The Athletic’s Nick Groke and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) that his team had also been in talks about the veteran first baseman. We heard this morning that Colorado was likely to be an interested party if and when the Mariners explore flipping Santana as part of their ongoing fire sale. In other first base news, Bridich also said the Rockies checked in with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt prior to Goldschmidt being dealt to the Cardinals. It seems like it may have been a short conversation, as the D’Backs “made it clear” that Goldschmidt wouldn’t be dealt to the Rockies.
With this reminder that divisional rivalries can still play a big factor in trade talks, let’s take a look at some other deal-making buzz from the Winter Meetings…
- As the Mariners continue their teardown, GM Jerry Dipoto said that he has received a lot of calls about outfielder Mitch Haniger, though the team is much less interested in dealing such a controllable and inexpensive asset. “We just weren’t willing to go there. I tell them if you want to blow me away, give it a shot,” Dipoto told the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other reporters. “We’ve had [a] handful of teams try, but they haven’t quite gotten to where we would even consider it.”
- The Dodgers have interest in Tigers right fielder Nick Castellanos, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets. Castellanos “is not their highest priority,” however, as L.A. is exploring a wide range of other trade options. MLB.com’s Jason Beck also reported things were quiet on the Castellanos front, suggesting that Detroit could get more interest after some of the free agent hitters start coming off the board. As you might expect for a rebuilding team, the Tigers are open for business on the trade front, with GM Al Avila telling media (including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press) that no player on the 25-man roster is untouchable.
- Interest is “significant” in Blue Jays right-handers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters. Despite the buzz, it would be “very difficult” for the Jays to find a good deal for either pitcher. It was a busy day in general for the Jays, who met with representatives from five different teams and five different agencies while exploring various trade and free agent options.
- Ivan Nova, Francisco Cervelli, and Corey Dickerson have all been mentioned as possible trade candidates for the Pirates, though “it’s going to have to be something that makes sense for us in the big picture to have us entertain” offers, GM Neal Huntington told MLB.com’s Adam Berry and other media. The trio will all be free agents after 2019, so it makes sense that Pittsburgh would explore trades if none seem likely to sign extensions or re-sign after the season. That said, since the Bucs are aiming to compete this year, quality players on short-term commitments aren’t necessarily a major issue, even though payroll concerns are always a factor for the team.
- With so many teams linked to J.T. Realmuto in trade rumors, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman lists seven teams as having “the best chance to land Realmuto” at this moment. The list includes the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, and Yankees, even if some of those clubs have denied interest in the Marlins catcher. New York is one such team that has poured cold water on its involvement in the Realmuto talks, though Heyman wonders if the Yankees could only be part of a Realmuto trade if it was a three-team effort.
The Orioles’ Managerial Search
Two weeks after tabbing Mike Elias as their new GM, the Orioles are finally making reported progress on hiring a manager. Baltimore parted with previous skipper Buck Showalter nearly two months ago, but the slow-moving GM search that eventually led the team to Elias has left it as the majors’ last club without a manager. Appointing Showalter’s successor will be one of the first noteworthy decisions Elias makes atop the Orioles’ front office, but given that the O’s are in the early stages of a full rebuild, win-loss record certainly won’t be the main focus when judging their manager in 2019.
Here’s a look at where the Orioles’ search stands thus far:
Latest Updates (Dec.10)
- Speaking with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter links) and other reporters today, Elias said that he won’t be meeting with any more candidates beyond the six initial names, and there may not be a second round of interviews. Elias said he hopes to have the new manager in place before the end of the month.
- Former Indians and Nationals manager Manny Acta is another candidate for the Orioles’ job, according to Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Acta oversaw rebuilding efforts in his previous two managerial jobs, leading to an unimpressive 372-518 record but doing little to harm Acta’s reputation as an analytically-open manager who works well with young players. Acta has worked as the Mariners’ third base coach for the last three seasons.
- Astros bench coach Joe Espada won’t be interviewing for the Orioles’ job, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports. Espada was a popular candidate for managerial openings this offseason, and his past connection with Elias in Houston made him an interesting fit for the O’s on paper.
Previous Updates
- Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond has interviewed for the job, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). Redmond posted a 155-207 record as the Marlins’ skipper from 2013 to May 2015, shepherding the team through one of its many rebuilding periods and then getting fired after a slow start in 2015, as then-owner Jeffrey Loria had playoff aspirations after adding talent that winter. Redmond has been Colorado’s bench coach for the last two seasons, and he was also mentioned as a candidate for managerial openings with the Tigers and Phillies last offseason.
- The Orioles will interview at least six candidates in person, including Nationals bench coach Chip Hale, Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde and Royals catching/quality control coach Pedro Grifol, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The 54-year-old Hale has previous managerial experience, which the O’s are thought to prefer, according to Rosenthal, though he suggests it isn’t a dealbreaker. A former major league infielder, Hale managed the Diamondbacks to a combined 148-176 mark from 2015-16. Hale has since served on the staffs of the A’s and Nats, and he drew managerial interest from the Phillies and Mets a year ago.
- Hyde, 45, was on the radars of the Blue Jays, Twins and Angels when they were seeking managers earlier in the fall. He comes with plenty of coaching experience, having worked as a minor league manager with the Marlins from 2005-09 before functioning as their bench coach from 2010-12. Hyde has been on the Cubs’ coaching staff since 2013.
- The 49-year-old Grifol has been in his present position since 2014. The former minor league catcher brings experience as a major league hitting coach (Royals, 2013-14) and a minors manager (with low-level Mariners affiliates from 2003-05 and in 2012).
- Diamondbacks director of player development Mike Bell will interview, Peter Gammons reports. He’s the son of former major league manager Buddy Bell and brother of rookie Reds skipper David Bell. Mike Bell, 43, garnered interest from the Rangers during their managerial search after the season. He’s a former professional third baseman who, prior to landing his current gig, coached and managed in the Diamondbacks’ minor league system.
Pitching Notes: Gray, Reds, Ray, Santana, Pomeranz, Nationals, Eovaldi
While the Yankees have broadcast far and wide their intentions to deal Sonny Gray, they are still shopping for the best possible return, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The Yanks are said to have tried to pry loose well-regarded prospect Taylor Trammell from the Reds, though unsurprisingly that effort proved unsuccessful. Sherman suggests that could be an indication that New York has good offers in hand — or, alternatively, that the Yankees are swinging for the fences just in case a big score can be found.
There’s certainly no shortage of interest in Gray, as GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including Sherman) that 11 teams have checked in on the right-hander. “We haven’t found the sweet spot yet” in talks, Cashman said, as the Yankees are exploring a variety of offers involving Gray from a smaller number of teams than that initial 11-club group.
Some more on the busy pitching market…
- Teams who have called the Diamondbacks about Robbie Ray say that the left-hander isn’t available in trade talks, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That tracks with reports from earlier today, which stated that the D’Backs had put a very high price tag on Ray, even if the southpaw isn’t entirely untouchable. Ray is controlled for the next two seasons at fairly reasonable arbitration costs, giving Arizona less incentive to him than a player entering his last year under contract (the already-dealt Paul Goldschmidt) or a player taking up a massive chunk of the payroll (i.e. Zack Greinke). The D’Backs are telling teams they aren’t entering into a complete rebuild, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).
- There is “widespread interest” in Ervin Santana, as per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link), though a signing doesn’t seem imminent. Finger surgery limited Santana to just 24 1/3 innings in 2018, and he feels he’ll probably sign later in the offseason once he can display to teams that he is fully healthy. Santana is an intriguing buy-low candidate, given that he posted solid-to-excellent numbers in the five seasons prior to his injury-marred 2018 campaign.
- Also from Cotillo, another bounce-back candidate in free agent lefty Drew Pomeranz has drawn interest from a “handful” of suitors.
- Even after signing Patrick Corbin, the Nationals searching for another starter, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Tanner Roark is coming off a middling season and Joe Ross only just returned from Tommy John surgery, so there’s certainly some room for Washington to improve at the back of their rotation beyond the big three of Corbin, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg. Beyond another starter, Heyman also said the Nats are looking to add a reliever and a second baseman.
- Three other teams were finalists for Nathan Eovaldi before the right-hander re-signed with the Red Sox, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets. The Angels were one of the finalists, and Eovaldi himself implied that the Astros were another, saying that he strongly considered pitching in his hometown of Houston. It isn’t known who the fourth finalist was, though the Phillies also had interest in Eovaldi, but as a closer, reports The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter link). Eovaldi’s desire to remain as a starting pitcher closed the door on that opportunity, however.
NL West Notes: Dodgers, LeMahieu, Belt, Greinke
Entering the Winter Meetings with a wide variety of potential moves under consideration, the Dodgers will “in all likelihood” move an existing starter via trade, ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. Just what the might look like isn’t yet clear, but the club’s numerous options will surely hold appeal to rivals. To be sure, the Dodgers have found ways on numerous occasions in the recent past to juggle seeming roster overloads, but Gonzalez says that the ability to utilize a player such as Kenta Maeda as a trade piece (while improving in other areas) will likely prod a deal of some kind.
- The Dodgers, meanwhile, are “showing continued interest” in second bagger DJ LeMahieu, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Certainly, the club has seen plenty of the 30-year-old over his career, virtually all of which has taken place with the division-rival Rockies. LeMahieu would presumably be seen as a near-everyday piece at second base in Los Angeles, though it’d hardly be surprising to see a lefty hitting platoon mate utilized to some degree if he’s added. Beyond the team’s general predilection for such arrangements, LeMahieu has been 80 OPS points better against left-handed pitching in his career.
- Giants first baseman Brandon Belt is drawing calls from “several” other teams, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Belt is still owed a hefty $48MM over the next three seasons and also can block deals to ten teams. His worrisome concussion history also poses a clear concern. And, of course, the market has not been particularly kind to first basemen of late. Certainly, Belt’s OBP-heavy bat would promise to improve quite a few lineups around the game, but it’s unclear as yet exactly what kind of trade scenarios might be under consideration.
- As the Diamondbacks weigh their next move, they are finding Zack Greinke‘s partial no-trade rights a “major impediment,” according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Numerous potential landing spots for Greinke appear among the 15 clubs to which he can block a deal, which leaves the veteran no small amount of leverage and complicates things for the Arizona organization. It is not clear whether the D-Backs have engaged with Greinke and his reps about his willingness to green-light a deal to certain destinations, but obviously the clause adds a notable variable to an already-tricky situation. While he’s still a high-level performer, Greinke is already 35 years of age and is entitled to a hefty $104.5MM ($95.5MM of salary, the remainder signing bonus) over the next three seasons.
West Rumors: D-backs, Ray, Rox, M’s, Santana, Rangers, Leclerc
Although the Diamondbacks traded first baseman Paul Goldschmidt last week, his departure isn’t necessarily a sign that a full-scale teardown is coming, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic hears. While Piecoro doesn’t rule out other deals involving notable D-backs veterans (e.g., Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray), he writes that they “seem comfortable standing pat” and addressing holes on their roster. If Arizona does part with Ray, it would take a lot to acquire him, as a source tells Piecoro the team has set a “really high bar” on a return for the left-handed strikeout artist. Ray, 27, is controllable for the next two seasons, including for a projected $6.1MM in 2019.
- The Rockies “figure to be in the mix” if the Mariners trade first baseman Carlos Santana, Thomas Harding of MLB.com writes. Santana just joined the Mariners this month in a blockbuster trade with the Philllies, but the rebuilding, payroll-cutting M’s may flip the 32-year-old in the coming weeks. While Santana wasn’t great in 2018, he brings a solid track record to the table and would likely serve as a first base upgrade in Colorado, which received National League-worst production at the position last season. Of course, Santana’s contract could hinder a trade to the Rox, as he’s due a guaranteed $35MM over the next couple years (including a $500K buyout in 2021).
- It doesn’t seem the rebuilding Rangers have any untouchables on their roster, TR Sullivan of MLB.com relays, as president Jon Daniels indicated Sunday that the team’s main goal is to improve its long-term outlook. The Rangers are “not looking to move these guys, but we are open on a lot of things,” Daniels said of their top players. Dominant reliever Jose Leclerc, who’s controllable through 2022, clearly stands out as one of Texas’ most valuable trade chips. Many teams have inquired about Leclerc, 24, but the Rangers have discussed extending him in a deal that would buy out free-agent years, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports. Like Leclerc, infielder Jurickson Profar ranks as one of the Rangers’ most appealing players, though he only has another two years of control left. If the Rangers market Profar, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News observes that he could be of particular interest to teams that lose out on the Manny Machado derby in free agency.
- More on the Rangers, who are trying to entice free agents with their forthcoming new ballpark, Daniels revealed (via Wilson). Regarding Globe Life Field, which will open in 2020, Daniels said: “It’s part of the story. We’ve talked more about the amenities we’re going to have. It’s going to be a place that players are going to want to play.” Daniels conceded, however, that there are other factors which outweigh the quality of a team’s ballpark – including finances, the happiness of the player’s family and whether the team chasing him is in position to win.
Astros Notes: Kikuchi, Abreu, Goldschmidt
Here’s the latest from Houston…
- It doesn’t appear as if the Astros will make a push for Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan reports (subscription required). Such teams as the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers, Mariners, and Padres have been linked to Kikuchi’s services, though there has been speculation that the teams on the west coast may have a bit of an advantage due to geography.
- Also from Kaplan’s piece, he details the Astros’ most notable needs heading into the Winter Meetings, namely another starting pitcher and another bat, preferably a left-handed hitter for lineup-balance purposes. (Though GM Jeff Luhnow has said of his hitter search, “We’re not going to be wed to it having to be a lefty or a righty or having it be a specific position.“) Listing a few speculative names who could be potential fits for the Astros, Kaplan opines that Robbie Ray, Michael Brantley, Jose Martinez, Daniel Murphy, or Nelson Cruz could all be possible trade or free agent targets.
- The Astros have been in touch with the White Sox about Jose Abreu, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Abreu has been on Houston’s radar before, including at last year’s trade deadline. Latest reports suggest that the Sox may not part with Abreu in the offseason (if at all) since they’d be selling low in the wake of a somewhat disappointing season for the first baseman. Abreu hit .265/.325/.473 with 22 homers over 553 PA for Chicago in 2018, a marked dropoff from the .883 OPS he posted over his first four Major League seasons.
- Speaking of first base targets, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that the Astros included pitching prospects Cionel Perez and J.B. Bukauskas in talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, before Arizona sent Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. MLB.com ranks Perez and Bukauskas 5th and 8th, respectively, in their list of the top 30 prospects in Houston’s farm system, though it could be argued that neither were in the Astros’ true upper tier of young arms. Forrest Whitley, for instance, is a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball, while MLB.com also had Josh James ahead of Perez and Bukauskas in their ranking. Bukauskas cracked the preseason top-100 prospect lists from MLB.com and Baseball America, though an injury-shortened 2018 season dimmed his ranking and recent reports suggested that the Astros may be using Bukauskas as a trade chip. Perez, a 22-year-old southpaw from Cuba, made his MLB debut last season, though between he and Bukauskas, they didn’t have the Major League readiness that St. Louis offered the D’Backs (namely Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly) for Goldschmidt. Still, the Astros’ apparent willingness to give up two controllable young arms for premium talent is an interesting hint about how far they’ll go to make a significant hitting upgrade.
Trade/FA Rumors: Braves, M’s, Haniger, Mets, Puig, Yanks, Lynn
The latest rumors from around the majors…
- The Braves, who are seeking outfield help, contacted the Mariners about Mitch Haniger and the Diamondbacks regarding David Peralta, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. However, Atlanta was turned away in both cases, per Burns. It’s unclear how far those discussions went, but with the Mariners in a full rebuild and the Diamondbacks seemingly going backward, it’s unsurprising the Braves showed interest in Haniger and Peralta. The soon-to-be 28-year-old Haniger is unquestionably among the most valuable outfielders in the game, considering both his on-field performance and four remaining years of team control – including another pre-arb season. As you’d expect, general manager Jerry Dipoto would need to be “blown away” to trade Haniger, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal says (video link). Peralta, meanwhile, was similarly outstanding in 2018, but he’s neither as youthful (31) nor as controllable as Haniger. Peralta has a pair of arb-eligible years left, and is projected to earn an affordable $7.7MM in 2019.
- With Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig possibly on the outs in Los Angeles, the Mets figure to at least inquire on the 28-year-old, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Puig would give the Mets another right-handed outfielder, which is on general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s wish list, without having to make a long-term commitment. He’s only under control for another year, at a projected $11.3MM.
- Free-agent right-hander Lance Lynn is among Plan B starting options for the Yankees, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported this week. Per Feinsand, New York was “engaged with” Lynn even before another of its potential free-agent possibilities, Nathan Eovaldi, re-signed with Boston. The Yankees and Lynn are already familiar with each other, as the Bombers acquired the 31-year-old from the Twins last July and benefited from his presence down the stretch. Lynn totaled 54 1/3 innings of 4.14 ERA/2.17 FIP pitching with superb strikeout and walk rates (10.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9) as a member of the Yankees, but that came after he underwhelmed as a Twin. Thanks in part to his unimpressive Minnesota stint, Lynn’s projected to collect a much less expensive contract than Eovaldi and former Yankee target/newly minted National Patrick Corbin have received this offseason.
Poll: Grading The Goldschmidt Trade
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, he of the career .297/.398/.532 line, was one of the most coveted assets on the offseason trade market. After a bitterly disappointing end to the Diamondbacks season, in which the club won just eight out of their final 28 games after staking a claim to top of the division on August 30th, a full-scale shuffling of parts was sure to be in order. The club was almost certainly set to lose ace Patrick Corbin, who this week signed a monster $140MM deal with Washington, plus center-field stalwart A.J. Pollock, who, despite several injury-marred campaigns, posted a robust 14.9 fWAR in his final five seasons with the team. And flimsy depth on the 25-man roster and in the upper minors paired with a system devoid of high-impact talent to offer a mostly inauspicious outlook in seasons to come.
Was it finally to time to cash in on the organization’s most valued trade chip? The answer, in the end, was a resounding “yes”: On Wednesday, the organization finally agreed to a package with the 31-year-old’s most oft-rumored suitor, the St. Louis Cardinals. 25-year-old right-hander Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly, 24, are the two most notable pieces going back to Arizona in the deal; Andy Young, a 24-year-old minor league infielder, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick are also part of the return for the D’Backs.
Goldschmidt, of course, is entering the final year of a contract that will pay him just $14.5MM in 2019. His presence figures to move defensive yo-yo Matt Carpenter back to his original home at third base, where the 33-year-old has, encouragingly, graded out as mostly above average with the glove in limited time over the last two years after a series of dreadful campaigns in the middle portion of the decade.
Infielder Jedd Gyorko and 1B/COF Jose Martinez, then, would seem to be left bench-ridden, and could be prime trade chips in the weeks to come. Speculatively, major bullpen upgrades could be in order — as a whole, the unit posted an abysmal 4.50 xFIP and 4.34 BB/9 last season, both of which ranked in the bottom five across the league. Though the departing package was significant, the Redbirds are left with a most prominent feather in their collective cap: with nine big-league-tested starting pitchers in the fold for next season, and a super surplus at catcher — the immortal Yadier Molina, plus top prospect Andrew Knizner — the Cards figure to lose very little in present-day value.
For the Diamondbacks, the return may have eclipsed even their wildest hopes, with one executive reportedly dubbing the package a “boatload.” Weaver and Kelly come with a combined 11 seasons of team control, and each should project around league average in the upcoming campaign. Kelly, a former top 50 prospect, seems especially intriguing — with the offensive baseline at catcher approaching its all-time nadir (catchers slashed a putrid .232/.304/.372 as a whole last season, for an 84 wRC+), the 24-year-old needs only to supplement his sterling defense with marginal offensive production to become an above-average big leaguer.
So, how would you grade this deal for each club?
Grade the Paul Goldschmidt acquisition for the Cardinals
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A 68% (15,642)
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B 23% (5,342)
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C 6% (1,278)
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F 2% (359)
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D 1% (268)
Total votes: 22,889
Grade the Goldschmidt trade for the Diamondbacks
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B 34% (7,283)
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C 31% (6,621)
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A 18% (3,814)
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D 11% (2,345)
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F 6% (1,248)
Total votes: 21,311
Cardinals Acquire Paul Goldschmidt
The offseason’s latest blockbuster trade doesn’t involve the exceptionally active Mariners nor any of the five teams in the hyper-aggressive National League East. Rather, both the Cardinals and Diamondbacks have announced that first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been traded from Arizona to St. Louis in exchange for right-hander Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young and a Competitive Balance Round B selection in next year’s draft.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote earlier today that the Cardinals have indicated that they want to determine if there’s any momentum in any of their ongoing trade talks this week, heading into the Winter Meetings, noting that those talks included ongoing negotiations with the Diamondbacks regarding their first baseman and perennial MVP candidate.
Goldschmidt, 31, is heading into his final season of club control and stands to earn $14.5MM next season before reaching free agency next winter. The six-time All-Star rebounded from an awful start to the 2018 campaign to finish with a brilliant .290/.389/.533 line through 690 plate appearances.
The Cardinals have been well-known to be in the hunt for a middle-of-the-order bat for a second consecutive offseason, with a reported focus on corner infielders. The addition of Goldschmidt would presumably push Matt Carpenter to third base, with Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong currently lined up to hand shortstop and second base duties.
Last offseason, the Cards sought a similar addition and turned their focus to Marlins slugger Marcell Ozuna. However, a shoulder injury known to be bothering Ozuna at the time proved detrimental to the outfielder’s offensive production, and he finished the season with a fairly pedestrian .280/.325/.433 batting line and 23 home runs — a far cry from his 2017 slash of .312/.376/.548 and 37 homers. If Ozuna is able to bounce back, the Cards can trot out a lineup featuring Goldschmidt, Carpenter and Ozuna — a highly talented trio with potential to comprise one of the more imposing hearts of the order in the Majors.
For the D-backs, the motivation to trade Goldschmidt comes from the slugger’s limited club control, a bloated payroll that had been at franchise-record levels and a desire to restock a thin farm system. Goldschmidt already inked one club-friendly contract with the D-backs and, with the end of that contract in sight, it’s unlikely that he’d sign for anything less than market value this time around. To that end, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks did try to sign Goldschmidt to an extension before trading him but were unable to come to terms (Twitter link).
With the reality that Goldschmidt wouldn’t be signing a new contract firmly set in place, general manager Mike Hazen and his staff moved to acquire more in exchange for Goldschmidt than they’d have stood to gain by allowing him to play out his final season of club control and receive a qualifying offer. The return announced by the two clubs more than meets that description. Both Weaver and Kelly have big league experience and were considered to be among the game’s top 100 prospects before surfacing in the Majors. Young, meanwhile, posted strong numbers between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last season, and the Competitive Balance draft pick the D-backs are acquiring is currently slotted in at No. 78 overall (though draft compensation from qualified free agents could potentially alter the exact placement by a matter of a few slots).
Weaver will pitch the bulk of next season at just 25 years of age. A year ago at this time, Weaver looked like a lock for the Cards’ rotation for years to come. He’d posted a 3.88 ERA in 60 1/3 innings at the big league level in 2017, turning in brilliant marks of 10.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9 and a 49.4 percent ground-ball rate. Weaver notched a 3.17 FIP, 2.93 xFIP and 3.29 SIERA in that time and appeared to be one of the National League’s most promising young arms.
The 2018 season, however, saw the former first-round pick take a step back. Weaver totaled 136 1/3 innings with 8.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 and a diminished 42.4 percent ground-ball rate. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA marks all hovered in the mid-4.00 range as his hard-hit rate spiked by more than 10 percent. Clearly, Weaver has some adjustments to make, but he’s controllable for another five seasons and, if all pans out well, he could give the Snakes a solid mid-rotation arm for the foreseeable future. He’s the second rotation piece the D-backs have added in as many days, following yesterday’s signing of right-hander Merrill Kelly to a two-year deal on the heels of his breakout in the Korea Baseball Organization.
Kelly, meanwhile, gives the D-backs their potential catcher of the future. The 24-year-old was touted as the heir-apparent to Yadier Molina in St. Louis but has yet to find much success in minimal big league time behind Molina. A former second-round pick, Kelly has batted just .154/.227/.188 in 131 plate appearances at the MLB level, though playing time has been hard to come by for him.
However, Kelly comes to the D-backs with six seasons of team control and a career .278/.373/.416 batting line in 755 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s thrown out 32 percent of opposing base thieves in his minor league career and, according to Baseball Prospectus, has turned in very strong framing numbers and above-average blocking abilities throughout his minor league tenure.
As for Young, the 24-year-old turned in strong numbers last season — albeit against younger competition. In 503 PAs last year, he hit .289/.379/.479 with 21 homers, 13 doubles, three triples and four steals. A 37th-round pick in the 2016 draft, he’s shown quite a bit of versatility by playing second base, third base, shortstop and both outfield corners to this point in his professional career.
The draft pick further solidifies a nice return for Arizona. The No. 78 selection in the 2018 draft came with a $763K slot value — a number that should take an incremental step forward in 2019. The D-backs, then, will not only add a top 80 selection to their draft but an additional $775-800K to their overall draft pool next season.
It’s a steep price for the Cardinals to pay, even if Weaver and Kelly are likelier to become solid regulars than perennial All-Stars. A combined 11 years of control, a top-80 selection in next season’s draft a minor league utility player with solid to-date performances gives Arizona ample opportunity to recoup long-term value. The Cards, however, are dealing from positions of depth — particularly with regard to the starting rotation, where Weaver wasn’t even assured a spot in 2019 due to the glut of quality options the team has amassed. While the team has less depth behind the plate, Molina is signed at a premium rate through the 2020 season, meaning Kelly wouldn’t have been in line for regular at-bats until at least 2021. Beyond that, 2016 seventh-rounder Andrew Knizner has elevated his status in recent seasons and is now considered by MLB.com to be the organization’s No. 5 prospect.
It’s also possible that the Cards secure some long-term value out of this trade. They’ll presumably make their own attempt to hammer out a long-term contract with Goldschmidt and, should those efforts come up short as was the case in Arizona, they’ll be in position to recoup a compensatory pick in the 2020 draft by issuing a qualifying offer to Goldschmidt.
From here, the D-backs figure to shift their focus to finding a trade partner for right-hander Zack Greinke. Unlike Goldschmidt, the motivation to move Greinke will stem from a more financial standpoint, as the former AL Cy Young winner is owed a combined $104.5MM over the next three seasons. While the D-backs are reportedly on the hook for the pro-rated signing bonus on his contract even after a trade (per The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan), that sum only totals $9MM. An acquiring team could, in theory, spare the D-backs a whopping $97.5MM in future salary obligations, although it stands to reason that the D-backs would have to include some cash or take back a fairly notable salary as part of any Greinke deal.
John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM tweeted that the two sides could be closing in on a trade. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch added that there was “momentum” building in trade talks (Twitter link). Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted that Goldschmidt would be going to St. Louis.
Diamondbacks Sign Merrill Kelly To Two-Year Deal
8:13pm: The D-backs formally announced the signing via a press release.
5:43pm: The Diamondbacks are in agreement on a two-year, $5.5MM contract with right-hander Merrill Kelly, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). The contract will pay Kelly $2MM in 2019 and $3MM in 2020. It also includes a pair of club options, per Passan, the first of which is valued at $4.25MM and comes with a $500K buyout. The second of the two options comes with a $5.25MM value, he adds.
Kelly, a 30-year-old righty, has never pitched in the Majors but just wrapped up a strong four-year run in the hitter-friendly Korea Baseball Organization. The former Rays farmhand has been particularly impressive over the past two seasons, during which time he has made 61 starts and tossed 390 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with 341 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and 105 walks (2.4 BB/9). He’s being viewed as a starter and is expected to join the Diamondbacks’ rotation next season.
The Arizona rotation has taken a hit this winter with the loss of Patrick Corbin, who reportedly agreed to a six-year contract with the Nationals earlier today. Arizona will also be without Taijuan Walker for much of the 2019 season after the righty underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year, and the D-backs also non-tendered Shelby Miller last week. The top names remaining in the Diamondbacks’ rotation mix include Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley and perhaps Matt Andriese, though there’s been ample trade chatter surrounding the veteran Greinke this offseason.
While Kelly lacks big league experience, the contract is a rather low-risk investment for the Diamondbacks, who will hope that Kelly can be the 2019 version of the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas. It’s the second consecutive season in which GM Mike Hazen and his staff have given a multi-year contract to a pitcher who has no MLB experience. Last winter’s two-year pact for right-hander Yoshihisa Hirano paid off in spades — 66 1/3 innings of 2.44 ERA ball out of the bullpen — and Kelly will bring another intriguing overseas track record at a minimal price.