Kei Igawa Has Been Posted
Rotoworld lists the potential suitors for Kei Igawa as the "Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Mets, Cubs and Indians." They rule out the Red Sox and Mariners, though this Tacoma News-Tribune article says the M’s are "likely" to bid. That same article predicts that the posting fee will be about "two-thirds less" than Daisuke Matsuzaka‘s $51.1M: $17M.
That seems high for a guy who David Wright isn’t convinced has MLB-quality stuff. Personally, I wouldn’t want my team spending more than $10M for his rights, but with all those teams involved, $17M seems plausible.
UPDATE: An alert e-mailer points out this article on the Braves official site. According to club officials, Atlanta won’t be involved in this one.
By Jeff Sackmann
MetsBlog On Dontrelle Willis
MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone talked to various baseball insiders and came away with some info concerning the possibility of a Dontrelle Willis trade. Cerrone’s sources indicate the Marlins want an MLB ready potential All-Star and the D’Backs and Dodgers are best equipped to satisfy that request.
Pure speculation, but I could see a deal for Matt Kemp and one of Scott Elbert/Chad Billingsley. This would be comparable to the bounty the Fish received for Josh Beckett – stud position player, stud starter. I wouldn’t make that deal if I was Ned Colletti, but that’s what I could see Larry Beinfest requiring.
2007 Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up, the D’Backs.
Josh Byrnes’s 2007 contract obligations:
C – Chris Snyder – $0.341MM
C – Miguel Montero – $0.33MM
1B – Conor Jackson – $0.328MM
2B – Orlando Hudson – $2.3MM
SS – Stephen Drew – $1.5MM
3B – Chad Tracy – $2.75MM
IF – Alberto Callaspo – $0.33MM
IF – Robby Hammock – $0.33MM
1B – Tony Clark – $1MM
LF – Eric Byrnes – $2.25MM
CF – Chris Young – $0.33MM
RF – Carlos Quentin – $0.33MM
OF – Jeff DaVanon – $1.25MM club option
OF – Scott Hairston – $0.33MM
SP – Brandon Webb – $4.5MM
SP – Livan Hernandez – $7MM
SP – Claudio Vargas – $1.275MM
SP – Juan Cruz – $0.575MM
SP – Brandon Lyon – $0.83MM
SP – Edgar Gonzalez – $0.33MM
SP – Enrique Gonzalez – $0.33MM
SP – Micah Owings – $0.33MM
SP – Ross Ohlendorf – $0.33MM
SP – Casey Daigle – $0.33MM
SP – Dustin Nippert – $0.33MM
RP – Jose Valverde – $0.359MM
RP – Luis Vizcaino – $1.775MM
RP – Randy Choate – $0.75MM
RP – Greg Aquino – $0.342MM
RP – Jeff Bajenaru – $0.33MM
RP – Brandon Medders – $0.327MM
RP – Tony Pena – $0.33MM
RP – Doug Slaten – $0.33MM
May depart
C – Johnny Estrada – $2MM (trade?)
IF – Andy Green – $0.33MM (sold to Japan?)
RP – Jorge Julio – $2.525MM (trade or nontender?)
Already gone, counted against payroll
SP – Russ Ortiz – $7.5MM
RF – Shawn Green – $5.8MM
The Diamondbacks started 2006 with a $72.5MM payroll, but hope to be in the $60MM range in 2007. By my calculations (assuming Estrada, Green, and Julio do not return) the D’Backs have less than $50MM tied up including raises. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic arrives at the same figure – the team has around $10MM to spend.
The catching situation looks good and cheap with Snyder/Montero. Johnny Estrada is doing everything he can to burn his bridges, anyway. Luckily for Josh Byrnes, Estrada had a fine offensive season at .302/.328/.444. A return to Philly is possible if they don’t want to try Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste next year. Other teams that may be in the market for a backstop include the Blue Jays, Angels, Astros, and Cardinals.
The infield is pretty much locked down, unless the right deal comes along to upgrade at third base. Most likely, the D’Backs will just hope Tracy can bounce back.
The outfield is set as well. The team will move Byrnes to left to accomodate for Chris Young.
That’s it for the offense, right? Maybe not. The possibility of acquiring a hitter was raised in this Jack Magruder article. As Magruder says, some kind of shakeup would be required. One name I’ve seen is Pat Burrell. Of course, it would require Burrell’s approval and the dollars could be difficult.
And then there’s the rotation. Webb and Hernandez are locks, and Vargas seems likely to remain at the back end. There are a host of kids with varying degrees of promise. There’s Brandon Lyon, who was once a starter. The larger plan, as has been publicly stated, is to acquire a frontline guy via trade.
Magruder names some pitchers of past interest such as Jake Westbrook, Brian Bannister, Jason Windsor, and Dontrelle Willis. Westbrook, who just had his option exercised, was a target at the trading deadline. His groundball style mirrors that of Webb, and he’s a smart choice. Juan Cruz could be trade bait; he’s said to interest Philadelphia. The aforementioned Estrada and Scott Hairston could be dealt as well.
Another good acquisition would be Jason Jennings. Jennings improved his control and strikeout rate to post his best season yet. He’ll be a free agent after ’07. Another possibility, which I found via the comments on an AZ Snakepit post, is Mark Mulder.
Byrnes has mentioned that he will also "tweak" the bullpen. He has a strong preference for trading, so maybe he’ll target an Aaron Heilman or Ryan Madson.
Last year, Byrnes’s wheeling and dealing brought in Miguel Batista, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Hernandez, Luis Vizcaino, Chris Young, and Johnny Estrada. And that was all in December. I’ll be very interested to see how this winter plays out. The D’Backs are a few moves away from contending.
Updated 10-14-06 – Mike Koplove and his $1.175MM salary are gone as he cleared waivers and became a free agent.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Luis Gonzalez
It’s been reported in multiple papers that the Diamondbacks will not be offering left fielder Luis Gonzalez a contract for 2007. He’ll join a robust free agent left fielder market this winter.
The average left fielder posts an OPS in the .810-.825 range, while Gonzalez stands at .824 this season. A second half doubles surge, which included a .906 OPS, has brought him up to that mark after a subpar first half in the power department. Baseball Prospectus projects a .266/.355/.463 line from him next year (that’d be an .818 OPS in his age 39 season). Such a performance would justify a one-year deal for $2.5MM, according to BP.
According to an Arizona Republic article, Gonzalez could play for his hometown Devil Rays but probably prefers to remain in the NL. The Cardinals would be a pretty good fit if they chose not to rely on Chris Duncan. The Giants might be another possibility.
Mets Trade For Shawn Green
The Mets’ much-anticipated acquisition of 33 year-old right fielder Shawn Green was completed today.
As I mentioned a week ago, Green represents only a mild improvement over Endy Chavez. Still, Green has heated up over the last week (.316/.409/.526) and probably didn’t cost much besides money. It’s not a difference maker, but I can see why the Mets would prefer Green and his track record. The only reason I don’t like the deal for New York is that they’re stuck with Green and his age 34 season in 2007. I just hope that Willie Randolph can push Green aside if Lastings Milledge is the superior player next season.
Mets Pursuing Shawn Green
According to the East Valley Tribune, the Mets are hot on the tail of Arizona right fielder Shawn Green. Jack Magruder tells us:
"There are strong indications that the Diamondbacks will ask Shawn Green to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate a trade to the New York Mets, although Green said after Saturday’s game no such request has been made. The Mets asked the D-Backs about Green earlier this week, after he cleared waivers, sources said Saturday.
While Green can veto a trade to a team other than San Diego, Anaheim or San Francisco, a deal to the Mets would reunite him with good friend Carlos Delgado, who was in Green’s wedding and played with Green in Toronto from 1993-99."
This week, the Mets have been using Endy Chavez, Lastings Milledge, and newly acquired Ricky Ledee in right field. Chavez, 28, is playing the best ball of his career and is even showing a little pop (.436 SLG). At .284/.349/.429, Green has a nearly identical stat line to Chavez. Any improvement would be minimal, but perhaps the Mets could acquire Green without surrendering much.
Diamondbacks Acquire Livan Hernandez
Looks like someone got some faulty info about Livan Hernandez being pulled back from waivers; Ken Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks have acquired the 31 year-old righty. The Nats received Double A pitchers Matt Chico and Garrett Mock. Chico has had more success with Tennessee so far. Neither pitcher is on the 40-man roster, making it easier to get the deal done.
Hernandez is set to earn $8MM this season and $7MM in 2007. While his strikeout rate has remained steady from last year, his hit and home run rates have spiked. To his credit, his two August starts have been excellent. The D’Backs are middle-of-the-pack as far as starting pitching and are just two games back in the West. They’re only one game behind the Reds in the wild card.
Hernandez has 56 innings worth of playoff experience from his time with the Marlins and Giants. He was the NLCS MVP with the Marlins after winning two games.
Olney: Cards Interested In Shawn Green
In his blog this morning, Buster Olney mentioned that he’d heard that Shawn Green might be a match with the Cardinals. I think there had been rumblings to this effect, but haven’t seen much in print until now.
At .296/.354/.447 this season, Green falls below league average in the NL (.277/.360/.477). Still, he’s pretty close and represents an improvement from what the Cards have thrown in left field this season. On the other hand, Green may not represent any improvement over John Rodriguez or Chris Duncan.
All of this would be moot if Green won’t waive his no-trade clause to come to St. Louis. Perhaps as an incentive Green would require his new team to guarantee his $10MM option for 2008. Regardless, he’ll make $9.5MM next year in his age 34 season. Yikes – certainly doesn’t sound like Jocketty’s style. Various Phillies’ outfielders may also be in play.
The Cards are fifth in the league in OPS and seventh in ERA. They would benefit from an upgrade on either side of the ball, but Green probably isn’t an upgrade. According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cards may make one last bid for Dontrelle Willis. That would be an upgrade.
L.A. Times: Angels Inquire About Ramirez, Tracy, Ensberg
We’ve heard Miguel Tejada as well as various mid-tier firstbasemen bandied about as possible trade targets for Bill Stoneman and the Angels. Mike DiGiovanna’s article for the Los Angeles Times today also indicates that the Halos could pursue various slugging third basemen.
Specifically, DiGiovanna mentions that the Angels have inquired about Aramis Ramirez, Chad Tracy, and Morgan Ensberg.
Ramirez is on fire, hitting .329/.391/.763 this month with nine home runs. What some folks may not realize is that Ramirez has every reason and the ability to test the free agent market this winter. He would most certainly top the money he’d make staying with the Cubs under his current contract. Ramirez has said he wants to stay in Chicago, so we’ll see.
The Angels would have to offer an excellent young player to pry Tracy away from Arizona. The 26 year-old has slipped a bit to .279/.343/.454 this season, which is below average for his position. Still he’s locked up for $13.25MM for 2007-09. That’s more than fair value.
Ensberg turns 31 next month, yet free agency is still a few years off. He hit the DL on July 10th with a shoulder contusion. After a torrid April, Ensberg hit just .194/.355/.382. The Padres have also expressed interest, but this acquisition would be a gamble.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 8 Days Left
To begin with, this just isn’t true. With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud. That honor belongs to 2005 for sure. The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.
Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest. The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers. In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb. Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.
Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base. Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.
Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more.
Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens. The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.
Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez? Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto? How about the Rockies?