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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are unlikely to do much free agent shopping, but improvements at left field and shortstop are possible. 

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents 

The 2011 Braves collapsed in epic fashion down the stretch, yet most of the pieces are in place for a competitive 2012 club.  That's fortunate, because GM Frank Wren has limited financial flexibility.

Assuming Moylan is non-tendered, the Braves will have about $84MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's $7MM less than the 2011 payroll of $91MM.  The Braves were closer to $100MM in 2008-09, but with a 5% drop in attendance this year raising payroll could be difficult.  Clearing $5MM of Lowe's salary yesterday was a win for the Braves, who did not envision him in next year's rotation.  Wren told reporters in October that Prado is likely back in left field next year, but otherwise I can see him traded or non-tendered.

Trading Jurrjens could serve the dual purpose of shedding $5MM and bringing back a bat, but Wren said this month: "We have a lot of pitching but I think it’s not something that we’re looking to trade from."  His statement could be interpreted in various ways, so we can't rule out a Jurrjens deal if the right offer comes along.  The Braves have more depth than most teams with their "Big Four" of young starters: Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, and Arodys Vizcaino.  With Lowe gone, Hudson will be the lone 2012 starter who exceeded 152 MLB innings in 2011.  But if the Braves feel Brandon Beachy, Tommy Hanson, and perhaps Minor can handle full workloads, Jurrjens may be expendable.

I think teams will be wary of surrendering a lot for Jurrjens.  SIERA suggests he's a 4.40 type pitcher, despite his career ERA of 3.40.  His strikeout rate dropped to 5.3 per nine this year, and he's missed significant time the last couple years due to knee, oblique, and hamstring injuries.  Any big league hitter the Braves get back would probably come with similar question marks or red flags.

I'm unconvinced the Braves won't look into left field upgrades, though a reasonable free agent target like Josh Willingham could prove a wash with Prado.  Still, bringing in a left fielder would allow Prado to back up Jones at third base.  The Braves will need an answer at shortstop, with prospect Tyler Pastornicky the favorite at the moment.  The Braves showed with Freddie Freeman they're not afraid to pencil a rookie into a starting job, but Wren should probably bring back Alex Gonzalez or a comparable veteran as an insurance policy.  Since Gonzalez is a Type B free agent, an arbitration offer makes sense.

The Braves' rotation averaged only 5.91 innings per start, 11th in the NL and worst among contenders.  They were saved by the league's best bullpen, but Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, O'Flaherty, and Cristhian Martinez probably can't provide 316 innings again.  Free agents Linebrink and Sherrill didn't shoulder that kind of a workload, but the Braves should probably sign at least one veteran reliever to take some of the load.  Overall it looks like another winter of limited free agent shopping, after the Braves spent only about $5MM on that market last offseason.

For the most part, the Braves' improvements will come from within, as better overall seasons from Uggla, Prado, Jason Heyward, and Bourn are entirely feasible.  More innings from the rotation will be another key to success.

Remaining Contract Options

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By the end of today, teams and players must decide on all 2012 contract options.  Here's what's left:

Cardinals

  • Rafael Furcal – $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout.  This is a lock to be declined, unless the Cardinals sign him to an extension first.
  • Octavio Dotel – $3.5MM club option with a $750K buyout.  I'm guessing the Cardinals will exercise this option.

Yankees

Indians Acquire Derek Lowe

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We have our first trade of the 2011-12 offseason!  The Indians acquired Derek Lowe from the Braves, tweets John Kreger.  The Braves will pay all but $5MM of Lowe's $15MM salary, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  Olney says the Braves will receive 23-year-old High-A lefty reliever Chris Jones in return for Lowe.  Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein provides a quick scouting report.

Lowe

Lowe, 38, posted a 5.05 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, and 59% groundball rate in 187 innings this year for Atlanta.  Lowe's Braves career ended on a sour note, as his 8.75 September ERA contributed to their collapse.  Still, his groundball rate ranked second in all of baseball.  Lowe signed a four-year, $60MM deal with the Braves in January of 2009.  

With Lowe, Justin Masterson, and Fausto Carmona, the Indians' rotation now has three of MLB's top seven in 2011 groundball rate.  Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Tomlin are also penciled in, with Carlos Carrasco down for Tommy John surgery.

For the Braves, the benefit is $5MM in much-needed salary relief for a pitcher otherwise projected for middle relief on their 2012 club.  The Braves and Indians last matched up on a trade in July of 2006, when the Tribe sent reliever Bob Wickman to Atlanta for Max Ramirez.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Braves Exercise Option On Hinske, Decline On McLouth

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The Braves announced today they've exercised their option on first baseman/outfielder Eric Hinske and declined their option on center fielder Nate McLouth.

The Braves chose Hinske's $1.5MM club option over a $100K buyout.  The 34-year-old hit .233/.311/.403 in 264 plate appearances this year.

The decision on McLouth was obvious, as the Braves faced a $10.65MM club option and a $1.25MM buyout.  The 30-year-old outfielder hit .228/.344/.333 on the season.

NL East Notes: Wilson, Brown, Mets, Hanley

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Some news from the NL East…

  • "Folks seem to think the Nationals are going to make [a] big play for C.J. Wilson," tweets Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated.  Heyman thinks the Nats will offer Wilson a contract worth around $75-80MM.  In August, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes thought Wilson could fetch a $100MM deal this winter given the lack of quality starters in the free agent market, but Wilson's postseason struggles will probably prevent him from that nine-figure contract.
  • Dealing Domonic Brown or keeping him in the minors in 2012 would be a short-sighted move for the Phillies, argues CSNPhilly.com's Casey Feeney.
  • "With supply seemingly exceeding demand" on the free agent closer market this winter, the Mets can look beyond the biggest names (Heath Bell, Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Madson and Jonathan Papelbon) and still find a solid closer at a reasonable price, writes Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.  Rubin also says the Mets are looking for another left-handed reliever to pair with Tim Byrdak, as the club worries that Danny Herrera will become less effective as opponents become more familiar with him.
  • The Marlins haven't discussed moving Hanley Ramirez away from shortstop or asking Ramirez about a position change, club president David Samson tells MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
  • From that same piece, Samson says the Marlins will be "very active" this winter with their expected rise in payroll.  "We're going to be very aggressive, but we're not going to be foolish," Samson said.  "That's the key. When you raise your payroll, you've got to do it smartly, because if you don't, you are losing 90 games at a higher payroll."
  • The Braves haven't yet decided if they will exercise Eric Hinske and Nate McLouth's 2012 options, reports David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  McLouth's $10.65MM option will certainly be bought out for $1.25MM, that's a no-brainer.  As for Hinske, he's a useful reserve — he can play first base and both corner outfield spots, and he had a .754 OPS against right-handed pitching last season.  Hinske's option is worth just $1.5MM so my guess is Atlanta brings back the former AL Rookie of the Year.

Quick Hits: Braves, Diamondbacks, Padres, Epstein

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On this day 36 years ago, Joe Morgan's ninth-inning RBI single helped earn the Big Red Machine a Game Seven win over Boston. That 1975 World Series was ranked by ESPN as the second-greatest in baseball history. While this year's Fall Classic has a long way to go to reach that level, the Cardinals and Rangers are off to a good start, having traded one-run victories so far. Here are today's links from around the league, as we await Game Three….

  • The Braves have hired Greg Walker, formerly of the White Sox, as their hitting coach, writes David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Walker was one of three candidates interviewed by Atlanta.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic shares scouting reports and biographies for eight international free agents signed by the Diamondbacks this summer. The reports, via Arizona's international scouting director Carlos Gomez, are must-reads for D'Backs fans.
  • Within Piecoro's piece, he adds that the Diamondbacks re-signed a pair of players, Mike DeMark and D.J. Johnson, to minor league deals.
  • Dan Hayes of the North County Times spoke to Baseball America's Jim Callis about the improvement of the Padres' farm system this season.
  • With Theo Epstein officially heading to Chicago, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald lists the five best and five worst moves the former GM made for the Red Sox.

NL Central Notes: Rasmus, Bourn, Dempster

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Weather permitting, we''re just a few hours from watching the Cardinals represent the NL Central in Game Three of the World Series in Texas. While we wait, let's round up some links on the Cards and a couple of their division rivals….

  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak discusses the Colby Rasmus trade with Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, noting that there was some internal opposition to moving the center fielder: "I'm not going to point anybody out specifically but there definitely was a robust debate internally on what we should do. But in the end, everybody believed it was what was best for the organization."
  • In a highly recommended piece at Bloomberg Businessweek, Rob Gloster revisits another July deal, providing an in-depth look at negotiations between the Braves and Astros for Michael Bourn.
  • ESPNChicago passes along a few quotes from Ryan Dempster regarding his future and the Cubs' new president. Dempster praised Theo Epstein and said he'd talk to the new front office regime before making a decision about his $14MM player option: "Hopefully it's not just picking up an option for this year, but I'll go out there and play the best I can and be here for a long time."

Astros Notes: Crane, McLane, Bourn

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Some notes out of Houston, including news about the proposed sale of the club….

  • Potential Astros owner Jim Crane wants $50MM off his $680MM purchase price as compensation for moving the club to the American League, reports Josh Kosman of the New York Post.  Though it isn't clear if a deal will be reached, Crane and MLB are in the "ballpark" of an agreement on the compensation price.  A source tells Kosman that there is a “65 to 70 percent chance" that Crane and Bud Selig will reach an agreement, but if the two sides can't work out a deal, Crane won't buy the club.
  • Crane's $50MM request could be his "exit strategy" from the sale, writes Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle, if he has become frustrated at how long it has taken to finalize his purchase of the Astros.  Justice also speculates that current owner Drayton McLane could be the one who walks away from the deal if Crane wants to lower his price, even though $630MM is still higher than any other offer McLane could find.
  • Rob Gloster of Business Week talks to several Astros and Braves officials for an oral history of the Michael Bourn trade.

NL East Notes: Reyes, Johnson, Phillies, Sandberg

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Some news from the NL East…

  • Two Mets players "wouldn't be surprised to see" Jose Reyes sign with the Nationals this winter, tweets David Lennon of Newsday.
  • The Nationals are conducting a managerial search to abide by MLB rules, but Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated tweets that the job is Davey Johnson's if he wants it.
  • All six members of the Phillies' coaching staff have signed new contracts for 2012, according to a team press release.  This includes bench coach Pete Mackanin, who has been mentioned as a candidate to become the next Red Sox manager.
  • As Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer points out, the intact coaching staff means that Ryne Sandberg (who managed Philadelphia's Triple-A affiliate last season) isn't getting a promotion.  Gelb predicts that Sandberg will manage or coach somewhere in the Major Leagues next year, which would mean he'll leave the Phillies' franchise unless Mackanin gets the Boston job and Sandberg is promoted to bench coach.
  • Also from Gelb, he examines Ruben Amaro's plan to sign a proven closer if Ryan Madson leaves and compares it to how the Cardinals relied on unproven (and cheaper) closing options like Jason Motte and Fernando Salas to great success this season.
  • Despite the Braves' collapse in September, Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution thinks the club is close to a World Series.

NL East Notes: K-Rod, Riggleman, Geren, Walker

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Ten years ago today, the Braves signed 16-year-old right-hander Jose Ascanio out of Venezuela. Six years later they traded him to the Cubs for Omar Infante and Will Ohman, and two years after that he was part of a package for Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow. Here are some links from the NL East…

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