AL West Notes: Ackley, Braden, Weaver
It's still a little early to be thinking about trades, but the Mariners are contemplating a big mid-season addition nonetheless. Here's the latest…
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times hears that the Mariners aren't in a rush to promote Dustin Ackley, though they like what they've seen from him at the plate. Baker says the Mariners don't want to risk paying Ackley for four years of arbitration when his glove isn't ready. Despite Ackley's hitting, they don't feel he's ready defensively.
- Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner hears that the Mariners could call on Ackley as soon as tomorrow. The hot-hitting prospect homered today and the Mariners aren't worried about the possibility that Ackley will qualify for super two status, according to Cameron. Ackley would have a good chance at qualifying for arbitration four times if he gets the call tomorrow and stays in the Majors.
- Dallas Braden underwent successful surgery to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder, the A’s announced. The left-hander is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- As Tom Verducci of SI.com explains, Angels ace Jered Weaver has become a strikeout pitcher in spite of his "pipe cleaner legs" and 90 mph fastball. Weaver could double his $7.365MM salary in 2012 thanks to those strikeout numbers, as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained in detail earlier this month.
Previewing Jaime Garcia’s Arbitration Debut
If Jaime Garcia keeps pitching like this, David Price and Clayton Kershaw won’t be the only first-time arbitration eligible left-handers worth following this offseason. Garcia, the third-place finisher in last year’s National League Rookie of the Year balloting, enters tonight's start leading the league in wins and shutouts and third in the Senior Circuit with a 1.89 ERA.
The 24-year-old has thrown 300 fewer innings than Kershaw and 175 fewer frames than Price, so his salary doesn’t figure to approach $6MM in 2012, as theirs might. Tommy John surgery sidelined the Cardinals lefty in 2009, so he trails some other first-time arbitration eligible pitchers in important categories like wins, innings and strikeouts.
However, Garcia doesn’t compare well with Shaun Marcum and Francisco Liriano, who are also veterans of Tommy John surgery. Both pitchers entered the arbitration process for the first time with little leverage, as their respective platform years were poor (Marcum missed the 2009 season and Liriano's '09 campaign was a dud).
Garcia, on the other hand, figures to have lots of positives on his side this winter. He's 5-0 with an ERA under 2.00 and four times as many strikeouts as walks. Throw in an All-Star appearance, some postseason success or some Cy Young votes and his case would become even stronger. If he stays healthy, he’ll earn far, far more than what Liriano ($1.6MM) and Marcum ($850K) earned their first time through arbitration.
Jordan Zimmermann, another Tommy John veteran who will go to arbitration for the first time this winter, doesn't measure up to Garcia in terms of career numbers, and isn't off to the same blazing start. On the other hand, Max Scherzer has pitched tremendously (6-0, 3.20 ERA, 51 Ks) so far and figures to have a stronger case than Garcia this winter because of the superior length and consistency of his career contribution.
Looking back a year, there's Phil Hughes, who was born just two weeks before Garcia. He's another starter who went to arbitration without impressive ‘bulk’ stats. It won’t be easy, but Garcia could match the 31 career wins, 369 innings and 323 strikeouts Hughes had after 2010. And given his current pace, the Cardinals lefty could finish with a markedly better ERA, both for his career and his platform season (Hughes had a career 4.20 ERA after last year). That would help push Garcia’s 2012 earnings beyond Hughes’ current $2.7MM salary.
There's no way Garcia will match the 51 wins or 671 2/3 innings Jered Weaver had when he went to arbitration for the first time, so Garcia can likely forget about a $4.365MM salary. But his career 2.72 ERA is a full run better than the 3.73 mark Weaver had after 2009, which will help Garcia and his representatives at TWC Sports.
There’s little point in getting overly precise with arbitration predictions when so much of the season lies ahead, but it’s clear that Garcia could earn $3-4MM in 2012. Definite success for a pitcher who missed an entire season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Amateur Draft Glossary
The draft is less than three weeks away, which means it's time to track the top amateur players in the country and which teams are interested in them. Given the amount of rules, jargon and deadlines involved with the draft, it doesn't hurt to review some key dates and concepts. Here are a few terms from MLBTR's Hot Stove Glossary:
- Here's how the draft order is determined. River Ave. Blues has the 2011 order.
- Draft order depends heavily on free agent compensation.
- There's a deadline for signing draft picks, usually August 15th.
- Each year, the commissioner's office issues recommended bonuses for draft picks.
- Clubs can distribute bonuses differently to two-sport athletes.
- Check out our Draft Prospect Q&A series.
AL Central Notes: Royals, McPherson, LaPorta
Harmon Killebrew passed away today at the age of 74 after a battle with esophageal cancer, the Twins announced. MLBTR extends its condolences to the Hall of Famer's family and friends and the Twins organization. Here are today's notes on the AL Central…
- Royals analyst Rany Jazayerli checks in on nine top Kansas City prospects, including Danny Duffy, who will be called up tomorrow. For more on Duffy's promotion, click here.
- Former top prospect Dallas McPherson is returning to the Majors to replace Mark Teahen on the White Sox, the team announced. The White Sox added McPherson to their 40-man roster (they still have four empty spots).
- Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs asks where Matt LaPorta's power has disappeared to this month. The Indians' first baseman hasn't homered in May and has just four home runs for the season, but his batting line is a healthy .274/.354/.487 thanks to ten doubles. The centerpiece in the 2008 C.C. Sabathia trade, LaPorta could still become a useful player, according to Pawlikowski.
Service Time Implications For Danny Duffy’s Debut
Eric Hosmer rewarded the Royals for promoting him aggressively instead of taking a more cautious financial approach and delaying his debut. Less than two weeks into Hosmer's big league career, he has two home runs and an .848 OPS. Now, one of Hosmer's former minor league teammates is on his way to Kansas City for his MLB debut.
Left-handed pitching prospect Danny Duffy will start for the Royals on Wednesday, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. For the second time in a month, GM Dayton Moore is calling on his young players despite the possibility that the early promotions will mean the players go to arbitration four times instead of three and cost the team millions in the process.
That’s not to say that Duffy's early promotion will cost the Royals. The upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement and the unpredictability of future super two cutoffs make it nearly impossible to predict with certainty. Plus, if the Royals option Duffy to the minors for at least 20 days at some point between now and the end of 2013, it's likely that he will only go to arbitration three times.
Duffy will have 134 days of service time if he stays in the Majors for the entire 2011 season. If he collects a full year of service time in 2012 and 2013, he’d likely qualify for salary arbitration after ’13 and go through the potentially lucrative process four times (though that’s subject to collective bargaining and the variable super two cutoff). He’s definitely not going to be eligible for free agency until after 2017 – the Royals assured themselves of that by keeping him in the minors for April.
Six weeks into the season, it's not hard to see why the Royals called the 22-year-old up. The former third rounder entered the season as the seventh-best prospect in Kansas City’s stacked system, according to Baseball America (68th in MLB). Duffy’s first seven starts against Triple-A hitters have been impressive; he now has a tidy 3.00 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
There’s something to be said for calling on prospects – especially pitchers – when they’re ready, instead of obsessing over service time. The Royals need arms after last night’s drubbing at the hands of the Indians and Duffy appears to be the best option they have. There are risks involved with the move, just as there are advantages. It’s too early to tell for sure, but the unexpectedly early callup could provide Duffy with just enough service time to qualify for arbitration an extra time.
Quick Hits: Colvin, Olsen, Lackey, Astros
On this date 15 years ago, Sammy Sosa became the first Cub to homer twice in one inning. Here's the latest from around the league, including a note on a less productive Cubs bat…
- The Cubs optioned Tyler Colvin to the minors after today's game and GM Jim Hendry told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that he wants the outfielder to get regular playing time in Triple-A. As Hendry says, MLB teams are in the "production business."
- Scott Olsen made about $108K with the Pirates before they released him, according to Colin Dunlap of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter).
- John Lackey's DL stint probably won't affect Boston's 2015 option for the right-hander, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Though the option will be worth the MLB minimum if Lackey misses extended time because of a right elbow injury that existed before he signed with the Red Sox, he'd have to miss the rest of the season for the option to be affected, according to Bradford.
- Brian McTaggart of MLB.com looks back at Drayton McLane's 19 years of ownership in Houston. McLane has agreed to sell the Astros to Jim Crane; for details on the sale and how it could impact the franchise, click here.
Blue Jays Designate Robert Ray For Assignment
The Blue Jays designated right-hander Robert Ray for assignment to create 40-man roster space for Eric Thames, according to MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm (on Twitter). The Blue Jays placed Adam Lind on the 15-day disabled list and called on Thames to take Lind's 25-man roster spot.
Ray, 27, appeared in a handful of games for the Blue Jays in 2009 and 2010. He is currently on the 7-day DL in Triple-A and has not yet appeared in a game this year. In parts of six minor league seasons, he has a 4.19 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.
Thames, 24, has a .342/.419/.610 line in 167 plate appearances at Triple-A with 17 doubles and six homers as an outfielder. He hit 27 homers at Double-A last year and has a .303/.381/.529 line over the course of three minor league seasons.
According to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, the Blue Jays called on Thames rather than Brett Lawrie, since they wanted a left-handed bench bat in Lind's absence (Twitter link). When Lawrie gets the call, he'll join the team as an everyday player.
Transactions History: Sergio Santos
When the Twins claimed a shortstop off of waivers on this date in 2008, they probably wouldn’t have guessed that Sergio Santos would go on to become a closer for their division rivals. Yet that’s exactly what’s happened since Minnesota claimed Santos from the Blue Jays three years ago.
Santos, selected in the first round of the 2002 draft by the D’Backs as a shortstop, arrived in the Toronto organization late in 2005, when the Blue Jays sent Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista to the D’Backs for Troy Glaus. The Twins then claimed Santos on May 16th, 2008, before he had ever pitched in a professional game. After Santos posted a .242/.279/.374 line in the minors, the Twins let the infielder go.
Later in the offseason the White Sox signed Santos and within months, he was on the move again. The White Sox traded Santos to San Francisco late in Spring Training on the condition that the Giants would find him an everyday job in Triple-A. Unable to provide Santos with a regular role, the Giants sent him back to Chicago less than two weeks later.
Once the 2009 season began, Santos began the transition to the mound, as Yahoo's Jef Passan explained last year. The right-hander posted an 8.16 ERA through 28 2/3 innings for four different White Sox affiliates and allowed 37 hits and 20 walks, while striking out 30.
By 2010, Santos had graduated to Chicago's 'pen. He posted a 2.96 ERA in 51 2/3 innings with 9.8 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 as a rookie. Armed with a 95 mph fastball, Santos has posted similar numbers through 19 frames this year. He has yet to allow an earned run and he has 10.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 as Ozzie Guillen’s most effective reliever – almost certainly not what the Twins were envisioning when they claimed the former shortstop off of waivers on this date in ’08.
Draft Notes: Bundy, Bradley, Lee
Baseball’s amateur draft takes place in exactly three weeks. Here’s the latest on some of the top draft prospects and one 2010 draftee who is thriving six appearances into his pro career…
- Teams are hearing that the asking price for Dylan Bundy is $30MM for six years and that it will cost $20MM over five years to sign Archie Bradley, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (Twitter links). No draft deal has ever been worth $20MM, so the high schoolers' asking prices are sure to scare away less serious teams.
- MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes introduced us to Bradley earlier today.
- Dodgers right-hander Zach Lee is adapting well to the mental side of the game, Kevin Baxter writes in a piece for Baseball America (subscription required). Lee, who signed last year for a Dodgers-record $5.25MM, chose baseball over football and the results have been good for the 19-year-old. He has a 1.17 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in six starts at Class A.
- Click here to read Q&As with some prominent members of this year’s draft class.
Braves Not Interested In Trading Lowe
The Braves have no interest in trading Derek Lowe, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Despite some speculation that the Braves' starting pitching surplus could make Lowe available, the Braves aren't looking to deal the right-hander.
Brandon Beachy is now on the disabled list, so the Braves are calling on top prospect Julio Teheran to make his second career start Wednesday, according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens round out the Major League rotation, which has been tremendous. Braves starters are among the MLB leaders across the leaderboard.
With Teheran, Mike Minor and Rodrigo Lopez in the minor leagues, the Braves have the depth to make a deal. However, they prefer to keep Lowe, who has a 3.73 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 56.9% ground ball rate through 50 2/3 innings.