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Heyman On Yankees, Dodgers, Beltre

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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jon Heyman of SI.com that you could make the case for Cole Hamels as the team’s 2010 MVP. Roy Halladay might have something to say about that, but more importantly, the Phillies are red-hot. Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors:

  • The Yankees don’t let executives under multi-year deals interview for jobs in other organizations, which is why scouting director Damon Oppenheimer won't interview for the D’Backs GM job. The policy means Oppenheimer won’t be a candidate for other GM openings this winter.
  • Triple A manager Tim Wallach remains the favorite to become the Dodgers’ next skipper if Joe Torre doesn’t return, as many of Heyman’s sources expect.
  • Some “Red Sox people” say they won’t be surprised if Adrian Beltre looks to match the $64MM deal he signed after the 2004 season. They say the team won’t offer close to $64MM.

Padres Re-Claim Cesar Carrillo

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The Padres re-claimed Cesar Carrillo, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock (on Twitter). They designated Craig Italiano for assignment to make room for Carrillo, who was also recently designated for assignment by the Padres. The Phillies claimed the right-hander when he became available but they had to create roster space yesterday, so they designated Carrillo for assignment.

The Padres selected Carrillo in the first round of the 2005 draft, but he isn’t having much success in the minors. In 27 Triple A starts this year (none in the Philadelphia organization), Carrillo has a 5.60 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. The 26-year-old debuted on last year’s Padres team but has not returned to the majors in 2010.

This mirrors what happened between the Indians and Rockies a month ago. The Rockies claimed Wes Hodges from the Indians and lost him when Cleveland claimed him back two days later.

Non-Tender Candidate: Zach Duke

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Last year, Zach Duke represented the Pirates at the All-Star Game, but after another poor outing, he has become a non-tender candidate. The 27-year-old leads the league in losses for the second consecutive season and while won-loss records don't mean much, Duke has also posted a career-high 5.78 ERA in 141.2 innings.

Duke makes $4.3MM this year, which means he won't be cheap if the Pirates offer arbitration. Even a modest raise would give the lefty a $5MM salary in 2011, which is roughly what Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers and Doug Davis signed for last winter. The Pirates will have to be prepared to pay Duke as well as established starters coming off better seasons if they offer arbitration.

But in spite of the ugly ERA and loss total, there's some hope for Duke. His 5.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 are respectable and he appears to be the victim of bad luck. No MLB pitcher who has as many innings as Duke has seen a higher percentage of batted balls fall in behind him for hits. Opponents have a .351 average on balls in play against Duke, which is well above his career mark. With better luck and potentially better defense, he could have a lower ERA.

It's also worth noting that only one MLB pitcher with as many innings as Duke has seen a higher percentage of fly balls leave the yard. Home runs haven't been a massive problem for Duke before, and if his homer levels return to normal, the rest of his numbers would look better, too. At this point, his stats don't look good, and we can't simply write this season off in the name of bad luck. Duke has not pitched well and his manager appears to be losing confidence in him.

The Brewers had interest in Duke last winter, according to FOX Sports. They're one of many teams likely to add starters this winter, so Duke would draw some interest if the Pirates non-tender him. Uncertainty surrounds Pittsburgh's 2011 rotation, partly because of Duke. The Pirates must decide whether to non-tender Duke and risk losing him to a rival team or offer him $5MM or so after a disappointing performance. I'm guessing the Pirates non-tender the left-hander and see if they can bring him back at a discount, but let's see what you think: Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Odds & Ends: Marlins, Duke, Red Sox, Lee

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Links for Wednesday, four years after the Padres completed the trade that sent 2010 All-Star Evan Meek to Tampa Bay. A year later, the Pirates shrewdly plucked Meek from the Rays in the Rule 5 draft…

Free Agent Stock Watch: Vicente Padilla

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Vicente Padilla wrapped 2009 up in style, turning in two strong postseason starts after a big finish to the regular season in L.A. The result: a one-year $5.025MM deal. Padilla's about to hit free agency again, but he's out for the season, so he won't head into the offseason with the same momentum he did a year ago. Here's the outlook for the Dodgers righty:

The Pros

  • Padilla posted 8.0 K/9 with 2.3 BB/9 and a 4.07 ERA.
  • His average fastball velocity (92.4 mph) hasn't been this high since 2005.
  • He doesn't turn 33 until later this month, so he's still relatively young even though he has 12 years of big league experience.
  • The neck injury that has sidelined Padilla probably won't require surgery.
  • He is projected to be a Type B free agent, so he won't cost a draft pick.
  • Padilla's tenure in Texas ended badly a year ago, but he has since earned Joe Torre's trust, which reflects well.

The Cons

  • He'll miss the rest of the season with a bulging disk in his neck.
  • A forearm injury sidelined Padilla earlier in the season, so he made just 16 total starts in 2010.
  • Padilla didn't replicate the strong finish he had a year ago and posted a 10.13 ERA in his final three starts.

The Verdict

The Dodgers don't seem likely to offer arbitration, since they didn't make such offers to Padilla or any other free agents a year ago. Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda are hitting free agency, too, so the Dodgers will be looking for starting pitching this winter. Some teams may shy away from Padilla because he missed so much time with injuries, but his strong performance should be enough to earn him $3-4MM on a one-year deal this offseason, whether it's with the Dodgers or not.

How To Use MLBTR

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An explanation of the many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors:

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Odds & Ends: D’Backs, Youkilis, Mets, Cubs

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Links for Tuesday, 16 years after the Giants signed Yorvit Torrealba as an amateur free agent. Torrealba, a longtime Rockie, is a key part of the Padres team that's barely holding off San Francisco and Colorado.

A’s Designate Jeff Lyman For Assignment

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The A’s designated Jeff Lyman for assignment to create space on the 40-man roster for Eric Sogard, according to the team. The A’s also recalled Vin Mazzaro, Josh Donaldson and Chris Carter.

The A's claimed Lyman, a 23-year-old right-hander, off of waivers from the Braves in July. The 2005 second rounder struggled with control in Oakland's system, as he has throughout his minor league career. Lyman posted a 3.32 ERA last year, but in 2010, his ERA ballooned to 6.50 in 63.2 innings. Though he has started occasionally, Lyman is mostly a reliever. This year he posted 7.4 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 at three stops in the upper minors.

Rosenthal On Rangers, Helton, D’Backs

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Ozzie Guillen is under contract through 2012, but he would be a good fit in Miami, if you ask Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Marlins want a “passionate and fiery” manager, and Guillen certainly qualifies. Here are the rest of Rosenthal’s rumors: 

  • So far, the Rangers have not engaged GM Jon Daniels in serious discussions about an extension. To be fair, the team is in the midst of a pennant race and may prefer to discuss an extension later. Daniels has maintained that he wants to stay in Texas, though he can leave because of the team’s recent ownership change.
  • The Rockies will “almost certainly” want to complement Todd Helton with a right-handed hitting first baseman this offseason. Troy Renck of the Denver Post agrees (Twitter link).
  • Padres hitting coach Randy Ready may be a candidate to manage the Diamondbacks if they hire Kevin Towers as their next GM.

Nine Teams Likely To Add Starters For 2011

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Some teams can relax because their 2011 rotations are more or less set, but that's not the case for every club. That's why the nine teams below will be eyeing the starters that become available through trades and free agency. They'll either have to re-sign their own free agents or acquire a starter if they'd prefer not to rely on younger in-house options.

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