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2020-21 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

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Considering the circumstances, we figure to be in for an unusual free agency period in Major League Baseball next offseason. We’ve already run down the most notable catchers, shortstops, and first basemen who are slated to reach the open market once the winter rolls around in several months. We’ll do the same here with second basemen (players’ listed ages are for the 2021 campaign) …

Top Of The Class

  • DJ LeMahieu (32): Some felt the Yankees made a really nice value move when they inked DJLM, but nobody predicted a fourth-place finish in the AL MVP voting. It remains to be seen whether LeMahieu can repeat anything like his whopping 2019 output at the plate, but he has long been a high-end defender.
  • Jonathan Villar (30): Another player with a bit of a rollercoaster trajectory, Villar has actually matched LeMahieu in career batting output (97 wRC+). And Villar was quite good in 2019, racking up 4 fWAR despite below-average defensive grades by turning in 162 games of quality hitting and league-leading legwork on the bases.
  • Kolten Wong (30): It all came together in 2019 for the longtime Cardinals second bagger, who contributed solid work across the board. With a repeat showing, the club is likely to exercise its $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout).

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Cesar Hernandez (31): Even at his best, Hernandez has never been anything close to an overwhelming offensive performer. But he does have a ~3 WAR established ceiling and has received fairly regular playing time over the past five seasons.
  • Jurickson Profar (28): The once- super-elite prospect has made it through major injury issues but has never fully come around at the MLB level. 2020 could be something of a make-or-break season.
  • Jonathan Schoop (29): Though he rebounded from a down 2018, Schoop wasn’t the 30+ homer slugger of yore. Defensive metrics are split on his fielding ability.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Asdrubal Cabrera (35): After a rough start to the 2019 season, Cabrera caught fire down the stretch with the Nats. He’s unlikely to be an everyday guy come 2021, but is a trusted veteran who could still be seen as an important contributor.
  • Daniel Descalso (34): He’s all but certain to be paid a $1MM buyout rather than playing on a $3.5MM club option, barring a huge bounce back after a terrible first season with the Cubs.
  • Brian Dozier (34): It would be a surprise if Dozier returns to his levels of quiet stardom after two-straight down years. But he could have a chance to shine in San Diego if Profar falters.
  • Dee Gordon (33): It just hasn’t worked out for Gordon in Seattle. The M’s are sure to pay him a $1MM buyout instead of exercising a $14MM club option. But the speedy veteran could still have another act left.
  • Howie Kendrick (37): The bat is still legit, though it’s fair to wonder whether the glove still plays at second base. Odds are he’ll be seen mostly at an option in the corners going forward.
  • Jed Lowrie (37): It’s anyone’s guess how Lowrie will look when he finally gets back on the field.
  • Brad Miller (31): He surged back to life in a short 2019 run with the Phillies … but consistency has proven elusive over the years.
  • Eric Sogard (35): His power outburst with the Blue Jays faded after a mid-season trade to the Rays, but Sogard is still being paid to function as a significant contributor in his latest stint with the Brewers.

Others

Adeiny Hechavarria and Freddy Galvis can be considered candidates at second base, though their real value lies in their ability to handle shortstop. Bounceback candidates include Eduardo Nunez and Chris Owings.

Dr. Anthony Fauci On Possibility Of 2020 MLB Season

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Yesterday, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said that broader considerations would dictate whether and when the league is able to resume play in 2020. He expressed a commitment not only to the safety of those involved directly in staging ballgames, but to relaunching “in a way that will not impact the public health situation adversely.”

Whether that will be possible remains to be seen, but experts aren’t ruling out the possibility of some kind of return. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a key voice on the coronavirus pandemic, addressed the potential of baseball resuming play this summer in a podcast appearance with Peter Hamby (who also wrote things up at Vanity Fair).

There’s certainly plenty of important information to digest from the interview, but we’ll focus on some of the aspects relating directly to the game of baseball. Fauci wasn’t willing to give a strong prediction as to whether we’ll see MLB and other sports this year — largely due to the vast remaining uncertainty in dealing with COVID-19. Per Fauci, the feasibility of holding sports is “really going to depend on what actually evolves over the next couple of months.”

Manfred says that Major League Baseball wants to be a key “part of the [economic] recovery … and sort of a milestone on the return to normalcy.” He has thus far backed that up with creative planning efforts (as we discussed in a recent YouTube video) and, far more importantly, with rapid engagement in a critically important study designed to assess the true spread of the disease throughout the United States.

Fauci envisioned a scenario where indeed baseball is able to launch a season by the middle of the summer — sans live fans, of course. “If you could get on television, Major League Baseball, to start July 4,” Fauci suggested, ” … Well, I think you’d probably get enough buy-in from people who are dying to see a baseball game. Particularly me. I’m living in Washington. We have the World Champion Washington Nationals. You know, I want to see them play again.”

Getting there won’t be easy. Fauci spoke of “proposals” involving gathering and isolating players and others associated with putting on the sporting event “in big hotels” near playing sites. It would be necessary to utilize such isolation with frequent testing and other efforts to “make sure they don’t wind up infecting each other or their family.”

If that all sounds familiar, it certainly seems to dovetail with what we’ve heard from reports on MLB efforts to plan out a possible 2020 campaign. The league is known to have consulted with Fauci and other top experts. It’s an approach that carries some obvious (and probably some non-obvious) risks and limitations. But it’s at least somewhat encouraging that Fauci seems to believe it’s conceptually possible. And as he says, “it might be better than nothing.”

Manfred: Return Of MLB Depends Upon “Public Health” Situation

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In an interview this morning, Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred discussed the enormously complex question of how and when the league can resume play. As Ryan Gaydos of FOX Business reports, the top baseball official expressed a strong commitment to the primacy of public health considerations.

In many ways, the interview represents an acknowledgement of undeniable facts. But it’s good to hear the commissioner address this worrisome situation in a realistic and reasonable manner.

Manfred emphasized that MLB has made only one real decision to this point: “that baseball is not going to return until the public health situation is improved to the point that we’re comfortable that we can play games in a manner that is safe for our players, our employees, our fans and in a way that will not impact the public health situation adversely.”

That last point is a key one. Even if it’s possible to stage games in a manner that isn’t a threat to participants, that might require a major allocation of resources (private and public) to accomplish. There are obviously higher needs that must first be met.

As we’ve discussed at length in recent weeks, any resumption of play is sure to require complicated logistics and come with the threat of interruption. Ensuring that the above-noted conditions are met before attempting a season will surely reduce the risk for negative outcomes.

It’s also undeniably important to do as much legwork as possible now to prepare for a potential return to action. Unfortunately, as Manfred says, “it’s largely a waiting game.” But the league has “engaged in contingency planning” and “thought about how we might be able to return in various scenarios.”

[RELATED: Watch our recent video on why MLB is right to keep working on plans for a 2020 season.]

Ultimately, getting back to action will require creativity, flexibility, and preparation. It’ll also involve waiting to see what is achievable as a fast-moving, highly uncertain situation unfolds before all our eyes.

Accordingly, per Manfred, the league doesn’t “have a plan” so much as “lots of ideas.” He went on:

What ideas come to fruition will depend on what the restrictions are, what the public health situation is. But we are intent on the idea of trying to make baseball part of the recovery – the economic recovery – and sort of a milestone on the return of normalcy.

Innumerable considerations will ultimately shape the outcome. Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic discussed the behind-the-scenes activity today (subscription link), including the many logistical factors at play. Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (audio link via Twitter) suggests that the primary importance of TV-viewing (at least initially) could drive the league to innovate in that area.

MLB Player Contracts In A Shortened Or Canceled Season

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It seems there’s still a good deal of confusion out there surrounding just what will happen to player contracts given the disruptions to the 2020 MLB season. We’ll do our best to explain the situation in this post, based upon what has been reported to this point.

Background

In the wake of the suspension of Spring Training and the 2020 season, MLB and the MLB Players Association wisely engaged in immediate bargaining to address the massive and sudden changes to the expected state of affairs. The sides have already agreed upon modifications to the Basic Agreement governing league affairs. The full agreement hasn’t yet been released, but the key parameters are largely known (see here and here).

Related Matters

Numerous player salary determinations have been reached that do not specifically bear upon MLB contracts as typically covered here at MLBTR. The union has authorized stipends to certain players and the league has announced team payments to minor-league players. Other employees and contractors have also been addressed, if not fully accounted for on an ongoing basis: league staff, salaried team employees, and hourly employees. At least some teams have also provided some manner of financial assistance to independent contractors that have lost anticipated wages. There are numerous changes afoot to the 2020 amateur intake process (draft and international signings).

MLB Service Time

The key union bargaining priority, by all indication, was to preserve the anticipated player movement through arbitration and into free agency. That was secured in the aforementioned agreement, which assured players of the chance to accrue a full year of MLB service in 2020.

In the event of a shortened season, players will be awarded service time on a pro-rated basis. Players that accrue service for the entirety of the truncated campaign — those on the active roster and/or MLB injured list — would still get a full year of service. In the event of a canceled season, players will be credited MLB service in the same amount they accrued it in 2019.

The agreed-upon system is obviously far from a perfect approximation of what would theoretically have occurred had the 2020 campaign been played as planned (to the extent that can even be guessed at). But it does largely preserve what we’d have anticipated before the pandemic arose, at least in terms of the overall volume of service that will recognized. And while the distribution of service time will differ, it was surely necessary to utilize some sort of crude-but-objective mechanism.

As a practical matter, then, we will still see the same 2020-21 free agent class that had been expected — with Mookie Betts leading the way, even if the Dodgers never see him play a game in their uniform. Those that missed time in 2019 on the 10-day or 60-day MLB injured list will still get full credit for another year of service. Players will qualify and move through arbitration as normal, with Walker Buehler and Juan Soto among the potential Super Two qualifiers.

The major impact, in the event of a cancellation, will be on certain recently arriving big leaguers that had less than a full service in 2019 and on prospects who had expected to debut in 2020. Keston Hiura may actually not be hurt at all — with 114 service days last year, he wouldn’t have been a likely future Super Two qualifier and will still go into the 1+ service class. But Bo Bichette logged only 63 days in 2019, so he’d end up well shy of a full season if there’s no 2020 campaign. That would push back his eventual arbitration and free agent qualification by a full year. Top prospects such as Jo Adell wouldn’t have a chance to break into the majors in 2020.

MLB Player Salaries

Under the very same agreement that sorted out the service-time issues, the players gave up an immense amount of potential earnings in the 2020 season. In the event of a season cancellation, MLB players will receive just $170MM in total from teams — less than one-twentieth what their contracts would otherwise call for.

Should a partial season take place, players will earn on a pro-rated basis. Whether that’s based upon days of the season or games played isn’t entirely clear; that would make a difference if a compressed schedule is attempted. Regardless of the details, the main point stands: a player’s actual 2020 earnings will be quite a bit lower than expected if the season is shortened. But players would still earn a typical check for that portion of the campaign that is staged — if, at least, fans are in attendance. Since this post was originally published, a disagreement between the league and union has emerged. The league claims that the original agreement does not cover a situation in which games are played without spectators; the union contends that the pro rata system should hold regardless.

Future Earnings

There are some initial agreements already in place that will impact the near future. The word on 2021 arbitration salaries remains ambiguous. ESPN.com has reported that “The arbitration system will be adjusted to consider lessened counting statistics because of the shorter season, and salaries secured during the 2021 offseason through arbitration won’t be used in the precedent-based system going forward.” It sounds as if there’s an anticipation of a reduction in raises, though precisely how it is expected to work just isn’t evident.

There’s greater clarity with respect to the luxury tax. No penalty payments will be owed if the season isn’t played. If there’s a partial season, competitive balance payments will be prorated. But the luxury tax system will not automatically reset in the event that the 2020 season is canceled. We recently explored the ramifications of that here.

Of course, the competitive balance system operates primarily to constrain player spending by large-market teams … in a typical market setting. There’s little question that the immediate and long-term economic impact of the pandemic will have an even greater impact on free agent spending. Precisely how the coronavirus will impact the future is still largely unknown, both broadly and with respect to Major League Baseball.

As more is learned about the virus and the international response to it, that information will surely impact negotiations. The sides have much to discuss — not only about 2020 and 2021, but beyond, as the Basic Agreement expires after the 2021 season. At this point, there is no indication of an effort to reduce previously guaranteed salaries for future seasons, but they represent a major future liability to teams and could play an interesting role in the bargaining to come.

Yankees Co-Owner Hank Steinbrenner Passes Away

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Yankees co-owner Hank Steinbrenner has passed away at 63 years of age, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. His death was caused by a long-running illness and “was not related to COVID-19,” per the report.

Hank Steinbrenner, the eldest child of long-time Yankees owner George Steinbrenner, had been listed as general partner and co-chairperson of the team along with his brother, Hal Steinbrenner. As Sherman explains, it once seemed that Hank would ultimately take over operation of the team.

When the patriarch passed away in July of 2010, his four children — including Jennifer Steinbrenner Swindal and Jessica Steinbrenner, each listed by the team as vice chairpersons — became general partners in the ownership of the Yankees. Hal was ultimately tabbed as the managing general partner and has chiefly operated the ballclub over the past decade.

MLBTR extends its condolences to the Steinbrenner family and the Yankees organization.

MLB Informs League Staff Of Payroll Commitment

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As the coronavirus pandemic continues to cast a shadow over the game, Major League Baseball has made a commitment to its employees regarding their near-future earnings. Commissioner Rob Manfred issued a memo today assuring league personnel of their salary through at least the end of May, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports (Twitter links).

As ever, this sort of news is both reassuring and worrisome. While it’s nice to see the league providing staffers with a clear commitment in an uncertain time, it’s also yet another acknowledgement of the ongoing uncertainty regarding the staging of professional sports contests.

MLB and its teams have obviously experienced a drastic reduction in revenue owing to the suspension of the 2020 season. Even if it’s re-launched, it’ll be far less lucrative than anticipated. And it is fair to wonder about expected earnings in coming campaigns as well.

In recognition of the economic realities, Manfred indicates that the league’s top executives have accepted pay cuts of approximately 35%. Presumably, the intention is for those reductions to be temporary.

The league’s belt-tightening effort will help enable it to carry on with the expected team distributions over the first two months of the season, Passan notes. Manfred explains that those funds will be utilized in part to pay out the previously negotiated player advances ($5.67MM per team). That’s all that players are entitled to in 2020 if the season ends up being cancelled.

Steve Pearce Announces Retirement

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Veteran infielder Steve Pearce is officially hanging up his spikes, he tells WEEI’s Mike Mutnansky (writeup via Rob Bradford). He was not currently under contract with any MLB organization.

Pearce, who turned 37 yesterday, had already indicated he was unlikely to resume his playing career. Though he kept the door open late last year, he has now put to rest any possibility of a surprise return.

Last year turned out to be an injury-ruined disappointment — hardly the only time that Pearce’s body has betrayed him over the years. He managed to appear in 13 campaigns and achieve a full decade of MLB service in spite of his many health woes, but was limited to 2,555 plate appearances over that span.

Now that he has formally wrapped up his playing career, we can put a final wrap on it. Pearce owns a cumulative .254/.332/.440 batting line with 91 home runs. He appeared with seven organizations at the game’s highest level: the Pirates, Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, and Astros.

Pearce will be remembered most for his surprising breakout years in Baltimore and his brief but notable late run in Boston. He entered his age-30 season with a completely unremarkable record in the majors. He ended up making virtually his entire contribution at the game’s highest level over the ensuing six-year stretch (2013-18), over which he recorded a .266/.347/.479 slash (123 OPS+).

After moving to the Red Sox at the 2018 deadline, Pearce delivered a monster effort down the stretch before a three-homer showing in the 2018 World Series that earned him the MVP award for the series. In his recent comments, Pearce rejected the notion that the 2018 Red Sox benefited from illicit sign-stealing efforts — a matter that still remains unresolved by league investigation, at least publicly.

Quick Hits: Metrics, Wilmer, Draft, Short Season

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Even in the absence of baseball, there are plenty of interesting things being written about the game. Here are a few recent favorites …

  • Defensive metrics are now widely circulated, but we lack broad-based understanding of how to value them. At Baseball Prospectus, Jonathan Judge and Sean O’Rourke provide an interesting examination of the relative strengths and weaknesses of varying systems. The BPro FRAA measure turns out quite well in measuring outfielders, while Statcast’s OAA metric performs best in the infield. It’s not for the statistical faint of heart, but you’ll want to read the whole article (or at least its full conclusion section!) to gather up the necessary nuance.
  • MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince provided a fascinating oral history of the 2015 trade deadline swap that would’ve sent Carlos Gomez from the Brewers to the Mets for Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores — an agreed-upon trade that fell apart in controversial and very public fashion. It’s essential reading for any hot stove aficionado, featuring a trove of recollections of many of the key actors. By happenstance, we recently did our own examination of the butterfly effects of that non-trade.
  • The MLB draft will go forward in 2020, albeit in a modified form. It remains to be seen just how many rounds will be held, but there are sure to be less players chosen than usual. And with amateur spring sports cut short, teams haven’t had recent looks at many prospects. That makes prior scouting assessments all the more important to teams looking to navigate a one-off amateur intake situation. Baseball America has released its updated top-400 ranking of draft prospects, featuring all the names that have moved onto and up the board most recently.
  • We don’t yet know whether we’ll have a season or what one would even look like, but there’s no question the 2020 campaign will be shortened if it’s held at all. At Fangraphs, Craig Edwards examines the volatility of relief pitchers and how that could play into a ~half-season campaign. While it’d be tougher than ever to predict performance, Edwards notes that it may actually be even more important to carry a slate of highly capable relievers in a short-season format, particularly if the postseason tournament is expanded as part of the (sure-to-be) unusual schedule that is ultimately arranged.

2020-21 Free Agent Class: Catchers

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We have long carried a running list of 2020-21 free agents. With the offseason now completed, it has been updated to feature the players presently scheduled to reach the open market at the conclusion of the 2020 season (whether or not it is played).

We’ll take the opportunity to run through the class of players by position … starting with the catchers (season-age for 2021; alphabetical order within category):

Top of the Class

  • J.T. Realmuto (30) – The Phillies haven’t been able to work out a long-term deal with the star receiver, who is still in his prime. He could challenge for a record-setting free agent deal for a backstop.

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Robinson Chirinos (36) – The late-bloomer keeps hitting and laying claim to more and more playing time.
  • James McCann (31) – Despite a breakout 2019 season, the White Sox pushed McCann into a secondary role when they inked Yasmani Grandal.
  • Yadier Molina (38) – There’s virtually no chance the Cards’ icon will make it to free agency, let alone end up with another team.
  • Roberto Perez (32) ($5.5MM club option with a $450K buyout) – The Indians won’t allow Perez to become a free agent if he repeats his strong 2019 showing.
  • Wilson Ramos (33) ($10MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout) – The bat is still legit but questions remain about how much the Buffalo can handle behind the dish. It’s possible the Mets could retain him after a big season, but Ramos could be a better fit in the American League going forward.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Alex Avila (34) – High-OBP lefty hitter is still a nice complimentary piece, especially with a 26-man active roster.
  • Welington Castillo (34) – He’s in need of a bounceback after a rough showing in ’19.
  • Jason Castro (34) – The well-regarded defender just turned in an above-average year with the bat.
  • Francisco Cervelli (35) – He struggled in 2019 but was a high-end hitter in the prior campaign.
  • Tyler Flowers (35) – Flowers is a well-rated pitch-framer whose bat has faded a bit.
  • Chris Iannetta (38) – The long-time veteran decided to keep going in 2020, but the season freeze puts his future in question.
  • Sandy Leon (32) – A strong defensive backstop, Leon is going to have to show he can do something with the bat if he’s to keep getting chances.
  • Jeff Mathis (38) – Mathis made his money on an unparalleled reputation for overall defensive value, but he may not get another MLB offer if he can’t improve on last year’s showing at the plate (.158/.209/.224).
  • Austin Romine (32) – He got paid a fairly hefty sum by the Tigers after perking up offensively in the past two seasons.
  • Kurt Suzuki (37) – The second act as a flyball-heavy home run hitter has had legs, as Suzuki has delivered three-straight above-average offensive seasons, but his inability to control the running game is a concern.
  • Stephen Vogt (36) (2021 vesting/club option) – Vogt came back strong in 2019, but he’ll probably have to keep hitting at an above-average clip to hold onto a timeshare.
  • Mike Zunino (30) – When he’s going with the bat, Zunino is a high-quality all-around performer. But he has never been consistent and the arrow pointed straight down (.165/.232/.312) in 2019.

Latest On Trey Mancini’s Recovery

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Orioles GM Mike Elias provided an update on outfielder Trey Mancini, who is recovering from surgery to remove a malignant tumor. Among those to cover the discussion was Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com.

Mancini is said to be “doing well” now, one month after the tumor was removed. But the timeline for his return to regular baseball activities will be measured in “months rather than weeks,” per the O’s GM.

Mancini’s personal well-being would be the top priority regardless, but there’s certainly no reason now to accelerate his  return with the season on pause. That Mancini’s baseball career is even a reasonable topic of discussion is itself a good sign. Elias emphasizes that it was not only a “major procedure” but also a “major life event” for the 28-year-old.

Fortunately, the broader outlook seems to be about as good as could be hoped given the underlying condition. Elias explains: “His health status personally, the way that the operation went and the demographics age-wise and health-wise that he resides in going into this puts him in a really good spot to make a 100 percent recovery both from a general health standpoint, but also a baseball sense.”

Mancini is coming off of his best of three full MLB seasons. In 2019, he swatted 35 home runs and turned in an excellent .291/.364/.535 batting line in 679 plate appearances. Hopefully he’ll have a chance to build off of that strong performance sooner than later.

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