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Union, League Spar Over Interpretation Of Agreement On Resumption Of Play

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It had seemed that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association were largely seeing eye to eye on alterations to their preexisting agreements to account for the coronavirus pandemic. The sides struck a bargain in late March to account for numerous significant matters of concern, including part-season salaries.

[RELATED: MLB Player Contracts In A Shortened Or Canceled Season]

The unity may not be long-lived. With little prospect for hosting games with fans in attendance in the near term, league and union are now embroiled in a battle over the meaning of the deal they worked out less than one month ago.

Recent reporting indicated that MLB does not believe the recent agreement resolves the matter of player salaries in the event of TV-only games. Today, union chief Tony Clark announced that he holds precisely the opposite position, as Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.

The league claims the question of salary in a no-attendance season simply hasn’t been decided, pointing to a clause providing that the sides agree to “discuss in good faith the economic feasibility of playing games in the absence of spectators or at appropriate substitute neutral sites.” By this reading, the entire original agreement related only to the resumption of a typical season.

The player side says the agreement provides for a pro rata reduction of salary to match the number of games played, regardless of whether fans are in the stands. Clark tells Blum: “Players recently reached an agreement with Major League Baseball that outlines economic terms for resumption of play, which included significant salary adjustments and a number of other compromises. That negotiation is over.”

It’s not surprising that the sides would’ve found it hard to line up on this particular point. Playing without paying fans was obviously foreseeable, since it made it into the deal. Surely this didn’t sneak up on anyone.

But it’s frankly bizarre to see such a misalignment of expectations regarding an agreement that was only just negotiated. The actual dispute boils down to the question whether new negotiations over “economic feasibility” would involve a full reconsideration of player salaries or, rather, that such feasibility would take place regarding only other matters, with the salary issue already decided. It seems there are oddities in the positions of both sides, based upon what has been aired publicly.

In the framing of deputy commissioner Dan Halem, the original agreement was one in which the sides “agreed that the season would not commence until normal operations — including fans in our home stadiums — were possible.” If not, there’d be a need to negotiate a whole new “framework to resume play without fans.”

It may well be possible — even preferable — to read the agreement as the league suggests. But in that case, why not make it all the more explicit? We haven’t yet seen the full agreement in its finished form, but the elements that have been reported suggest it’s less than crystal clear in its structure. It also seems strange that the sides would’ve focused so much energy solely on the function of a “normal” season when that seemed so unlikely to occur.

At the same time, on the union side, it’s hard to imagine the potential ambiguity wasn’t spotted. If the MLBPA really believed the agreement ensured full salaries (on a game-by-game basis) regardless whether fans were in attendance, why would it have allowed such an “economic feasibility” proviso to inject doubt?

Could it be that both sides agreed to disagree? Perhaps, but if that was actually the mutual understanding, then why overlay contractual uncertainty onto the preexisting, underlying state of affairs? If instead one side or the other has been caught by surprise by the other’s interpretation, that’s equally hard to understand.

Perhaps we’re still just seeing posturing. But there’s no question the league and union still have significant issues to sort through in advance of a potential resumption of play, especially if (as seems exceedingly likely) it’ll occur without spectators.

This was always going to be complicated. Holding contests without fans will require tricky logistics, added costs and risks, and atypical economic calculations. And there’s already an important background consideration here. Remember that talk of the uniform player contract, which provides the commissioner power to “suspend” contracts “during any national emergency during which Major League Baseball is not played”? That’s clear enough in some instances. But it’s less obvious precisely how the contracts would be re-started. And what happens if the emergency declaration is formally lifted, but baseball doesn’t resume play … or does so on a modified basis? It’s hard to read this clause as providing that major economic interferences would mandate adjustments of already guaranteed salaries, particularly if there’s no formal nationwide emergency declaration.

There was already ample potential for interpretive disputes revolving around that language, the entirety of the Basic Agreement, and the broader bargaining relationship in these unusual circumstances. A mutually satisfactory resolution never seemed straightforward. And now, the presence of an intervening, already-disputed agreement may only add to the potential for friction.

MLBTR Poll: High-Dollar Relief Signings

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Since we’re left to imagine baseball for the time being, it seems natural to ask for MLBTR reader opinions on what might’ve been. We wouldn’t know much by this point had the season begun as usual, but we’d at least have a look at the health and stuff of the (relatively few) relievers that received big contracts over the offseason.

Let’s run through the $10MM+ bullpen contracts and then get to the question …

Will Smith, LHP: three years, $40MM with Braves — This one cost the Atlanta org draft compensation. And it’s the biggest reliever deal of the winter. But it’s arguably worth it for a guy that turned in a 2.76 ERA with a big 13.2 K/9 in 2019.

Drew Pomeranz, LHP: four years, $34MM with Padres — Everyone’s jaws are still on the floor here, given that Pomeranz nearly washed out with the Giants by the middle of the the ’19 campaign. His second half resurgence as a high-grade reliever was compelling — he not only carried a 1.88 ERA but struck out nearly half the batters he faced — but this was a bold strike for the Friars.

Will Harris, RHP: three years, $24MM with Nationals — He isn’t young and doesn’t have high-octane stuff, but Harris has just plain gotten the job done for quite some time. The veteran spins the ball about as well as anyone and owned a 2.36 ERA in his 297 innings with the Astros.

Chris Martin, RHP: two years, $14MM with Braves — You can save your Coldplay jokes. Martin was absolutely legit in 2019, fanning 65 batters while issuing just a handful of walks and compiling a 3.40 ERA in his 55 2/3 frames.

Daniel Hudson, RHP: two years, $11MM with Nationals — If you focus on the 2.47 ERA he compiled in 73 innings, and add in a glance at his postseason moments, this might look like a complete bargain. But Hudson’s peripherals didn’t support greater earnings than this. It could still be a nice buy if he can keep the momentum going upon his return to D.C.

Dellin Betances, RHP: one year, $10.5MM with Mets — The former star Yankees reliever decided to stay in his native New York on an interesting deal with the cross-town Mets. At his best, he’s a monster that can dominate in multi-inning appearances. But Betances is coming back from some significant injuries and hadn’t regained all his velocity in his brief MLB showing last year.

Blake Treinen, RHP: one year, $10MM with Dodgers — It’s not often a non-tendered player inks for more money than he was projected to earn in arbitration. That it happened here suggests that Treinen — who undeniably possesses thrilling stuff — drew significant interest when he hit the open market.

The question: which of these deals do you think will deliver the most excess value to the team? (Link for app users. Response order randomized.)

Mike Clevinger At Full Intensity In Return From Knee Surgery

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Indians righty Mike Clevinger seems to be recovering quite nicely from offseason knee surgery. He tells MLB.com’s Mandy Bell that he’s working at “100 percent intensity now.”

Skipper Terry Francona said yesterday that Clevinger was among the rehabbing Cleveland players making progress. But it seems the ace righty is even further along.

The real challenge faced by Clevinger is more or less the one confronting every other ballplayer. He says he’s “monitoring the progression in the weight room” but otherwise running a mostly normal schedule — within the confines of a pandemic shutdown.

Clevinger says he was “doing beach workouts” before that became untenable. He’s now throwing to a catcher in a “facility that’s clean, sanitized, no one’s going in there.” Clevinger says he’d “like to have more of a set plan,” adding that he understands it just isn’t possible at the moment.

[RELATED: Mike Clevinger: The One That Got Away From The Halos]

The Indians are no doubt keeping a keen interest in Clevinger’s activities. He’s a critical part of the team’s plans, now and in the future. His knee surgery wasn’t serious, but the last thing anyone wants is for some other issue to crop up while he’s finishing off his rehab work and building back up on the mound.

Austin Jackson Open To MLB Return

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Long-time MLB outfielder Austin Jackson is open to offers to get back on the field, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports on Twitter. He says he has remained in playing shape and is interested in a potential return.

Jackson only recently turned 33, so he’s not that long in the tooth. But he didn’t appear in the professional ranks in 2019 after nine consecutive MLB campaigns.

As he contemplates a comeback, Jackson says he’s looking for the “right situation” — not just any opportunity, evidently. There’s obviously no chance he’d command a big-league contract at this point, so he’d surely be looking for a minors arrangement of some kind.

It’s somewhat odd to see this news now, in the midst of a pandemic-driven hiatus, given that Spring Training had nearly wrapped up when the season was paused. But Jackson could ultimately hold appeal if a 2020 season is launched. He’s a known commodity and teams could end up needing added depth to facilitate a compressed schedule and unusual situation.

Jackson struggled badly in his last action in the majors, turning in a collective .245/.299/.326 output over 375 plate appearances with the Giants and Mets. But he was quite productive in 2017, when he slashed .318/.387/.482 for the Indians.

Does Baseball Have Its Next Zobrist?

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You tend to hear talk of “The Next [insert player’s name]” involving guys whose careers change something about the way we think about a sport. It’s often the earth-shaking stars — Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Lawrence Taylor types. But not always.

In baseball, we’ve heard talk for years of “The Next Ben Zobrist” or “Team X’s Ben Zobrist.” It’s one of those things that you tended to understand when you heard it. Zobrist embodied something new and different: he was a high-end, star-level performer masquerading as a regular old utility guy. Moving around the diamond, featuring a plate-discipline-driven offensive skillset, and playing in Tampa Bay … it took some time for Zobrist to make it on the map. But once he finally got the recognition he deserved, he became the archetype of a new breed of player.

While the rest of the league caught on to the idea of moving guys around the diamond more liberally, we haven’t yet seen a single player match Zobrist as a Swiss Army knife that’s actually really good at all its functions over a sustained, multi-season span. Now, as Zobrist rides off into the sunset, Jeff McNeil of the Mets promises to change that …

The then-Devil Rays originally landed Zobrist from the Astros — in exchange for Aubrey Huff — way back in the early days of MLBTR (July of 2006). Some guy named Tim Dierkes wrote up the trade, characterizing Zobrist as a “solid but not spectacular shortstop prospect” of the sort who’s a “good guy to have around, gets on base, but not a star.”

Thankfully, Tim’s readers stuck with him despite that whiff. (I doubt I’ve had any of those, so … no need to go back and check, thanks.) In truth, the description was plenty fair at the time. It took a while for Zobrist to emerge.

Zobrist was a mess in his first two MLB seasons, putting up -1.7 rWAR and -1.9 fWAR cumulatively for the Tampa Bay organization. When the club dropped the devil from its name in 2008, Zobrist’s age-27 season, his angelic side emerged. He earned his way back for another shot and showed quite well in a 62-game run.

The next year opened with Zobrist as an obvious choice for the MLB roster. He ultimately emerged as an outright star … on paper, at least, while awaiting recognition … by turning in 599 plate appearances of .297/.405/.543 hitting with 27 home runs and nearly as many walks (91) as strikeouts (104). And he did so while appearing at every spot on the diamond aside from the battery (in addition to taking a turn at DH).

Like his forefather, McNeil was a legitimate but non-elite prospect when drafted. (The former went in the sixth round, the latter in the twelfth.) Neither player was hyped much on his way up the ladder; in both cases, they showed excellent plate discipline and polished hit tools … but little in the way of home run power.

The skillsets are rather similar, as are the timelines. Actually, having recently celebrated his 28th birthday, McNeil is a bit ahead of Zobrist’s curve. And his own versatility is proving equally useful to the Mets as Zobrist’s did to the Rays.

McNeil lined up mostly at second base when he was first called upon in 2018. He graded rather well there and could certainly have just been kept at the position for the long haul. But the Mets had other ideas. As they cooked up a surprising swap for Edwin Diaz, the Mets reportedly discussed McNeil with the Mariners. Fortunately for the New York org, it didn’t ultimately have to put him in. (Ill-conceived though the trade was, as we recently explored on YouTube, losing McNeil would’ve made it an even greater calamity.) But adding Robinson Cano meant bumping McNeil off of second base. He did have a lot of experience at the hot corner on the farm, but McNeil had spent very little time in the outfield. As it turned out, McNeil handled more 2019 frames on the grass than on the dirt, grading out as a capable defender no matter where he was thrown

While the glovework is what primarily spurs the comparison, there’s a lot connecting these two at the plate as well. McNeil is rather more dependent upon his ability to maintain a really lofty batting average to get on base. While he rarely strikes out, he’s not as handy at drawing walks as was Zobrist. But with a .321 batting average through 815 career plate appearances … so far, so good.

While McNeil had ramped up his power output in his breakout upper-minors showing in 2018 — thus forcing his way up in the midst of a busted Mets campaign — it was hard to know if it’d carry forward. He hit only three dingers in his first 63 games and 248 plate appearances in the majors. But McNeil launched 23 long balls in 567 trips to the dish in 2019, his first full big league campaign. That’s not an overly impressive tally in the streamlined-orb era, but it does suggest that McNeil can find a way to expand his contact skills into loft when the offensive environment supports that kind of approach. Zobrist never came within seven long balls of his first full-season tally, though that certainly didn’t stop him from producing a ton of value at the plate.

Why McNeil and not some other would-be Zobrists? Well, to this point, McNeil owns a 141 wRC+ at the plate — figures reminiscent of Zobrist’s monster early output. Whit Merrifield has perhaps the best claim, and he’s quite a good player in his own right. But he’s also a different beast — rather less bat (109 career wRC+) but with greater value on the bases. David Fletcher has versatility on his side, but he’s not even an average overall hitter over the same approximate span as McNeil. Likewise, Brock Holt doesn’t have a consistent record at the plate. Tommy Edman and Cavan Biggio each had early success, but neither has completed a full MLB season.

So … will the comparison hold? Zobrist took a bit of a step back at the plate in his second full MLB season but rebounded soon thereafter. And he continued to deliver multi-faceted value until he ran out of gas at the tail end. All said, Zobrist delivered 44.5 rWAR and 44.4 fWAR over this 14-year career.

McNeil has a long way to go to reach those levels of overall productivity. Statcast numbers suggest he was a bit fortunate last year, when he carried a .355 xwOBA and .385 wOBA. But even with a bit of a step back, we’d be looking at a high-quality offensive performer who (like Zobrist) contributes in the field and on the bases. Though McNeil is presently slated to line up at third base for the Mets, that could still evolve over time. Perhaps he’ll even end up reprising his ever-shifting 2019 role for certain seasons. Whether or not it’s ultimately utilized, that flexibility will help immensely when it comes to managing the roster during and between seasons.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest News & Notes On MLB & Coronavirus

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There’s renewed hope in the struggle of Athletics minor-league coach Webster Garrison against COVID-19, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays via Twitter. Garrison required the support of a ventilator for over three weeks before finally being extubated today. You can read more on his story from the outset of his hospitalization here. While Garrison obviously still faces a tough road to a full recovery, it’s much-welcomed good news. MLBTR extends its best wishes to his family, friends, and colleagues.

More notes on the coronavirus crisis relating to the baseball world …

  • The state of Arizona is at least open to considering hosting the 2020 MLB season, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Whether that’ll prove feasible or desirable from the league and union perspective remains to be seen, but state willingness would certainly be one of many preconditions to making out a workable plan. Governor Doug Ducey says that Arizona is “very open-minded to hosting whatever Major League Baseball would like from the state,” though only at such time as it is “appropriate for public health if Arizona were in a position to reopen.”
  • Maury Brown of Forbes examines the difficulties that Major League Baseball faces — and some of the possible financial solutions it could pursue. In particular, Brown posits that lost revenues — the full scope of which aren’t yet known but which are sure to be massive — could spur MLB commissioner Rob Manfred to press forward with long-pondered plans for expansion. That could also dovetail with the minor-league realignment efforts the league had already launched. Kevin Reichard of Ballpark Digest wrote recently about the fact that new MLB clubs would need additional minor-league clubs. As Brown explains it, MLB could clean house on certain existing affiliates and then “quickly whip around and expand into markets where state-of-the-art ballpark facilities could be built,” while also collecting “some form of expansion fees.”

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Center Fielders

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In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, and third basemen who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Next up: center fielders (players’ listed ages are for the 2021 campaign).

Top of the Class

  • George Springer (31): After a relative down season in 2018, Springer bounced back to top form last year. He ended with a monster .292/.383/.591 batting line, 39 home runs, and strong grades on his glovework in center and right field. If teams feel they’ll be able to trust him up the middle for a few more campaigns, they’ll presumably be all the more motivated to bid.
  • Starling Marte (32): Based upon performance to date, Marte is the only other potential star of the class. Trouble is, a high-end performance in 2020 would mean the Diamondbacks are sure to exercise his $12.5MM club option rather than paying a $1MM buyout. They gave value to get him this winter with just that scenario in mind. Marte is a career .287/.341/.452 (116 wRC+) hitter as well as a quality baserunner and defender (though metrics were less enthused with his work in the field in 2019).

Other Potential Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (31): Though he remains well-regarded as a fielder and baserunner, Bradley just hasn’t gotten it done offensively for some time now. He has settled in as a roughly ten percent below-average hitter over the past three seasons. If he can bounce back to his well-above-average form from 2015-16, he’d obviously stand to substantially boost his earning outlook.
  • Brett Gardner (37): The grizzled veteran keeps grinding out useful seasons, filling in reliably when a need (seemingly inevitably) arises in the Yankees’ outfield. Whether the club will exercise a $10MM club option or instead pay him a $2.5MM buyout remains to be seen, but odds are the sides will work something out if Gardner remains productive and wants to go for a 14th campaign in the Bronx.
  • Kevin Pillar (32): Pillar is to center field what Freddy Galvis is to shortstop. Neither has really performed to the typical standard of a year-in/year-out regular, but each has done just enough, stayed on the field, and landed in the right situations to gather up tons of playing time. That’s not to disparage Pillar’s value — like Galvis, he’s a gamer who’s worthy of a significant role on a big-league roster — so much as to say his future likely doesn’t lie in everyday duties. Pillar’s glove is no longer elite and he owns a lifetime .296 on-base percentage.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Jarrod Dyson (36): Still a burner on the bases and in the field, Dyson’s bat has fallen off quite a bit over the past two seasons. Even as a very marginal MLB hitter he’s a useful player, but it’s tough to guess how much longer he’ll remain one.
  • Enrique Hernandez (29): Though he couldn’t sustain a 2018 uptick with the bat, Hernandez remains a highly useful player. Much of the appeal lies in his versatility; last year, he appeared at every spot on the field except outside of the battery.
  • Jake Marisnick (30): Outside of a career year in 2017, Marisnick has profiled as a speedy, glove-oriented part-time player. So long as he remains an elite defender who provides palatable offensive work, he’ll hold appeal.
  • Cameron Maybin (34): The market didn’t buy fully into Maybin’s surprising showing last year with the Yankees (.285/.364/.494), as he rode a hefty .365 BABIP and benefited from a Statcast spread between results (.363 wOBA) and expectations (.337 xwOBA) based upon batted-ball quality. But the fact he trended up in hard contact shows that Maybin could yet have some more seasons in the tank.
  • Michael A. Taylor (30): Tantalizing though his physical tools may be, Taylor just hasn’t consistently produced at the plate in the majors. He was buried in the minors for most of 2019 but ended up delivering when the Nats most needed it in the postseason. Taylor has had one roundly impressive MLB campaign (2017), so perhaps it’s not impossible to imagine him turning into an interesting open-market target with a strong showing in 2020.

The Awkward Tenure & Uncertain Future Of A Steady Dodgers Slugger

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Any guesses as to which Dodgers player has hit the most total dingers since the start of the 2015 season? That’d be outfielder Joc Pederson, with a tally of 123.

Sure, he has since been bypassed in more recent seasons by younger slugger Cody Bellinger and the suddenly emergent Max Muncy. And several other excellent players have delivered more WAR to the L.A. franchise over the years. But Joc has been a consistent source of prodigious power for the Dodgers since he first emerged in the majors.

There’s a major caveat here, of course. Last year, all of Pederson’s 36 home runs came against right-handed pitching. He stepped into the box only fifty times against southpaws, managing only a putrid .224/.240/.265 batting line. That’s only marginally better than his .188/.263/.310 lifetime mark against same-handed hurlers. But against righties? Pederson owns a stellar 131 wRC+ in his MLB career.

That excellent output against righties is of obvious value to the Dodgers, but hardly assured Pederson’s place on the roster. He’s set to earn $7.75MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility — a bit spendy given the team’s other players and roster plans. The Dodgers worked hard to deal him this past offseason, reportedly holding talks with the White Sox before finally agreeing to a deal with the Angels … one that ultimately fell apart for other reasons (more details on that collapse here).

This wasn’t the first time we heard trade chatter on Joc … far from it, in fact. Pederson’s status in Los Angeles has never really been assured — even when he was flying up the prospect charts and emerging as a high-end young MLB talent. A former 11th-round draft pick, Pederson was batted around in trade talks long before he reached the majors and the chatter never stopped thereafter.

The Dodgers wouldn’t include Pederson in trade talks involving Jon Lester (link), Cole Hamels (link), David Price (link), and Shelby Miller (link). At one point Pederson was asked about in talks involving Marlins star Jose Fernandez. There was talk of a deal even after a rough 2017 season during which he was temporarily demoted. He was connected to the Braves last winter.

It seems now that the Dodgers might’ve been better served cashing in on Pederson’s trade value when it peaked. But it’s far from a total whiff. He has provided 10.9 rWAR and 13.1 fWAR to the Los Angeles club in 705 games. Strikeouts were the concern when he was younger, but they haven’t prevented him from achieving a lifetime 120 wRC+. The real issue has been the intense platoon needs, though that probably bothers this organization less than any other.

Throughout this lengthy run of success, the Dodgers have moved through quite a number of different players. They’ve leaned on some huge stars and many role players. One of the steadiest forces has been Pederson’s prodigious output against right-handed pitching. And he has risen to the occasion in the postseason, turning in a cumulative .239/.326/.487 slash with seven long balls in 133 plate appearances.

The waiting game that all teams are presently experiencing is even more awkward for Pederson and the Dodgers. It was already weird for him to return to camp after the collapsed trade. Now, as he closes in on his 28th birthday, it’s still possible the California native has already played his last game in a Dodgers uniform after a decade in the organization. If the 2020 season does indeed get underway, Pederson is sure to get plenty of plate appearances against right-handed pitching, but not much opportunity to prove to potential future suitors that he can be trusted to hit lefties.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Union Chief Tony Clark On Returning To Play

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MLBPA chief Tony Clark spoke with Bob Nightengale of USA Today about the union’s stance on returning to play in 2020. His comments focused primarily on the pervasive ongoing uncertainty, but Clark also says he’s remaining optimistic.

On the one hand, there’s nothing new here. As Clark acknowledges, the course of the scientific, social, and political response to the virus will dictate what baseball can do and when.

“We don’t have the answers, and we don’t expect those to come anytime soon,” Clark explains.

At the same time, it’s important to understand where the chief decisionmakers stand on these matters. Clark echoed MLB commissioner Rob Manfred regarding the need to consider first the broader public needs. Testing availability is critical, he said, but “it can’t be at the expense of public testing.” And it must be determined how the virus “can be mitigated in the public arena as much as the professional arena.”

While there’s a lot of overlap in league and union interests — everyone wants to be a positive force and to get revenue moving again — there are obviously quite a few differences in situation. Playing in empty stadiums won’t be a problem, Clark says. And the union side is willing to consider some experimental measures to make things interesting and accommodate a compressed schedule.

But what of the much bigger potential issues? There’s agreement in the near term on the rules regarding player contracts, but what will happen to long-term guarantees and upcoming free agent and arbitration cases? And will players be willing to live apart from families and accept other restrictions on their personal lives if that proves necessary to holding a season?

Clark says “it would be premature to have that discussion” and adds that he doesn’t intend “to negotiate through the media.” Ultimately, he says, the concepts that have been discussed to this point lack “depth” and feature “too many assumptions” to be addressed in detail.

“Once we find ourselves in discussions with the league in terms of options and variations, we in turn can present those ideas to the players, and the players can decide what makes most sense,” Clark explains.

One of the most interesting matters coming down the pike hasn’t yet been addressed by Clark or Manfred: the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement in 2021. There was prior chatter of an early initiation of negotiations, so the sides have already been thinking about things. The present crisis has obviously required difficult modifications to the present bargaining period. It will also change the parameters of the next one. As league and union make difficult tradeoffs now, they’ll surely be considering the impacts and perhaps even beginning negotiations regarding their next overarching agreement. At the same time, sudden and vast uncertainty will make it all the more challenging to think through the future.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres keep trying to find the perfect roster mix to supplement their rising young talent.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

As usual, the Padres engaged in quite a lot of eyebrow-raising chatter this winter. There was talk at various points that the club was chasing trades involving Mookie Betts (see here), Kris Bryant (see here), Francisco Lindor (see here), Nick Senzel (same link), and Starling Marte (see here). In free agency, the Friars looked at veteran southpaws Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel … and also considered another in David Price as part of various trade scenarios.

There’s no new star in San Diego, but that probably wasn’t necessary for an organization that last year welcomed Manny Machado and oversaw the emergence of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack. It might have been nice to announce a new, long-term pact with Tatis. The San Diego organization built up some good will by promoting him to start the 2019 season — that’ll also ensure a full season of 2020 service even if the campaign isn’t played — but couldn’t make apparent headway in talks this winter.

While committing distant future money to a franchise star would’ve been possible, the Friars didn’t have much near-term payroll space to work with. The Padres tried but failed to deal Wil Myers to achieve greater flexibility, so for now they’re left saddled with the remaining three years and $61MM on his heavily back-loaded contract. After a bunch of non-tender decisions and some mostly modest salary additions, the team is sitting at about $144MM in cash payroll for 2020.

So, what did Padres GM A.J. Preller accomplish in his sixth offseason at the helm of baseball operations? Much of the work was in a set of four interesting swaps with three value-focused trade partners.

Most of all, Preller swung an outfield overhaul. Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham each came over as part of multi-player trades that defy characterization as “buy” or “sell”-side transactions for either the Padres or their respective trade partners in Tampa Bay and Milwaukee.

Pham is only controlled for two more seasons, but he could contribute a ton of excess value if he keeps hitting. He’ll replace Hunter Renfroe, one of the players for whom he was traded. Grisham brings a lot more long-term control and some real promise but isn’t nearly as established. He’ll slot into the mix at all three outfield spots, perhaps pairing with minor-league signee Juan Lagares to handle much of the work in center. Otherwise, the Friars will shrug and hope for the best from Myers and oft-injured youngster Francy Cordero. Another young left-handed slugger, Josh Naylor, could also factor into the mix. With a strong showing in the upper minors (if a season is played there), well-regarded prospect Taylor Trammell could force his way into the picture at some point.

As is the case for much of the rest of the San Diego roster, it’s possible to imagine the outfield unit playing at quite a high level … or being rather a marginal outfit. There’s decidedly more star power in the infield, though perhaps the outlook comes with the same sort of qualifications.

Barring injury, the left side of the infield will be occupied almost exclusively by aforementioned wunderkind Tatis and top-dollar star Machado. Greg Garcia is the primary reserve/fill-in option, with Ty France and newcomer Jake Cronenworth also on the 40-man. Francisco Mejia and Austin Hedges remain entrenched behind the dish, with hopes one or both will make strides in 2020. At first base, the Pads may ultimately have to decide whether to reduce the time of the disappointing Eric Hosmer. It’s arguable that the best alignment would involve a time share between Hosmer and Myers, however hard that would be to swallow given each former Royal’s weighty contract.

Ian Kinsler’s decision to elect retirement after a tough 2019 showing unexpectedly cleared some salary and seemed to pave a path to regular at-bats for top prospect Luis Urias — but the club obviously didn’t fully believe in him as a replacement. He ended up departing in the Grisham swap. The Padres gave up a bit of young talent to take over the final season of arbitration eligibility of Jurickson Profar, a formerly elite prospect (from back when he and Preller were with the Rangers organization) who was a mostly uninspiring performer in 2019. He’ll battle at second base with minor-league signee Brian Dozier. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that situation ultimately end up in a timeshare (with Garcia, France, and/or Cronenworth potentially involved).

Those aforementioned outfield moves spelled the end of the line for Manuel Margot in San Diego. He ended up being shipped out along with 2019 second-rounder Logan Driscoll in order to acquire reliever Emilio Pagan. The late-blooming Pagan brings highly appealing K/BB numbers and a big swinging-strike rate out west, but it seems rather curious that he will now be on his fourth MLB team in four seasons. Pagan carried an unsustainable strand rate (94.8%) to reach a 2.31 ERA last year and has been rather prone to the long ball (1.58 per nine for his career).

The Padres have visions of Pagan joining closer Kirby Yates to form a powerful combination of late-inning righties. Completing the high-leverage mix is southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who rode his second-half surge to a much bigger-than-expected contract and a surprising return to San Diego. The 31-year-old was flat-out dominant down the stretch, but it was still stunning to see the Friars go to a four-year guarantee to lure him. Further bullpen-building came in the form of more modest two-year pacts to bring back Craig Stammen and add interesting NPB returnee Pierce Johnson, who whiffed 91 hitters through 58 2/3 innings en route to a 1.38 ERA with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan last season.

The depth seems like it’ll be necessary. Young hurlers Andres Munoz and Reggie Lawson were each lost to Tommy John surgery in camp. The Padres can still turn to a host of other young arms, but most come with questions. Southpaw Matt Strahm (who has much better career numbers as a reliever) and converted infielder Javy Guerra seem likely to join the ’pen once the season begins. Luis Perdomo, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Ronald Bolanos, David Bednar, Jose Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Gerardo Reyes and sixth starter Cal Quantrill are all 40-man options as well — some with real upside — but you’d have a hard time arguing any as sure things.

That leaves a rotation mix that mostly went untouched over the winter. The Friars did bring in Zach Davies while parting with Eric Lauer as the other half of the Grisham/Urias swap. It’s too much to expect a repeat of his 2019 showing (31 starts of 3.55 ERA ball), but Davies should be a solid part of the staff. The same holds true of Joey Lucchesi, who returns along with the upside-laden trio of Paddack, Garrett Richards, and Dinelson Lamet to form quite an interesting rotation mix. It would be even more exciting to see this group in a full season, when it could be supplemented by top prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino, but that’s all coming soon enough.

2020 Season Outlook

It’s awfully tough to look at this roster and see a threat to the powerhouse Dodgers. But all bets are off in a short-season format, which is likely all we’ll get if the 2020 season is played at all. And there’s reason for the Padres to hope they’ve done enough at least to compete for a Wild Card spot, though it’s a crowded NL field and it’ll be tough to make mid-season improvements given the (seeming) lack of payroll breathing room.

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