Nationals To Sign Cuban Outfielder Yadiel Hernandez
The Nationals have agreed to a deal with Cuban outfielder Yadiel Hernandez, as Jorge Ebro of el Nuevo Herald reports. He’ll receive a $200K bonus, with Ben Badler of Baseball America adding that it comes on a minor league deal.
Hernandez, 29, has been free to sign since April, but failed to hook on with an organization until the minor league season already ended. As a result, he’ll have to wait for his first chance at competitive, regular season action until next year, though presumably he’ll be able to participate in various fall and winter activities and leagues. Hernandez last played in a full-fledged game early last year.
It’s a bit surprising that Hernandez had to wait so long and was only able to secure such a meager bonus, but perhaps his showcases haven’t been convincing. Hernandez’s age is obviously a limiting factor on his value, but teams have promised tens of millions of dollars to even older players out of Cuba. But Badler suggests that he is good enough to warrant placement at Triple-A or even to battle for a major league roster spot out of camp.
Indeed, the numbers in Cuba have shown plenty of promise. In his last Serie Nacional campaign, Hernandez put up a robust .369/.509/.535 batting line with 7 home runs over 369 trips to the plate. There obviously isn’t much power in his game — he has never hit more than ten in a single season — but he also managed 77 walks against just 47 strikeouts in that span, which seemingly suggests that he will bring an advanced approach with him to D.C.
Hernandez is viewed as being capable of playing an average right or left field, but it doesn’t seem as if there’s much hope of him lining up in center — which is where the Nats could most benefit from a left-handed bat in 2017. Still, he’ll add to the organization’s depth options next season and beyond, and the meager bonus makes this an extremely low-risk signing.
Henderson Alvarez Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
SEPT. 20: Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that Alvarez had a biceps tenodesis procedure and an excision of a boney exostosis performed on his right shoulder today by Dr. James Andrews.
SEPT. 15: Athletics righty Henderson Alvarez will undergo arthroscopic shoulder surgery, MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports (Twitter links). It’s not yet clear what kind of time he’ll require to recover, as that will be dependent in part upon what needs to be fixed during the procedure.
It was clear already that Alvarez wouldn’t throw in 2016, but the news nevertheless represents another rough blow. The 26-year-old never quite made it onto the hill for the A’s this year despite coming tantalizingly close during his rehab work.
Alvarez did log 33 frames in the minors during his DL stint, which is more than he managed in 2015 for the Marlins. The shoulder surgery that ended his season then also led to a non-tender from Miami, with the A’s scooping Alvarez up for $4.25MM over the winter.
Unfortunately for both player and team, the bounceback effort fell short. While the results of the surgery will obviously play a significant role in determining Alvarez’s future, it already seems fair to expect that Oakland will not tender him a contract entering his final year of arbitration eligibility.
Teams will surely still show interest in taking a shot at a recovery from Alvarez, though perhaps they won’t be willing to stake quite as much guaranteed money. He’s obviously still quite young, and was posted a 187-inning, 2.65 ERA campaign in 2014 before the troubles began.
Chris Stewart Undergoes Knee Surgery
SEPT. 20: Stewart underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee, the Pirates announced. The operation was performed by Dr. James Andrews and comes with a recovery timeline of six to eight weeks, so he should have plenty of time to recover and prepare for Spring Training in 2017.
SEPT. 14: Pirates catcher Chris Stewart will likely require knee surgery, MLB.com’s Adam Berry was among those to report. Pittsburgh has already placed him on the 60-day DL and scheduled a visit with Dr. James Andrews.
It seems that the knee issue isn’t just a run-of-the-mill injury. Stewart has suggested that a surgical option could be career-threatening, but also said that he may not be able to continue playing without it.
“Everything is on the table at this point. We don’t know,” he said. “The way I’ve been playing, I’m kind of leaning toward [surgery, which] might be the only way to go to continue my career. We’ve tried to do pretty much everything else to keep me on the field without the surgery.”
The 34-year-old has found a home in Pittsburgh as a reserve backstop, signing a two-year, $3MM deal over the winter which includes a club option for 2018. But the injury has limited Stewart to 113 plate appearances on the year, and he has compiled a subpar .214/.319/.286 batting line.
Indians Designate T.J. House
The Indians have designated lefty T.J. House for assignment, per a club announcement. His roster spot will go to righty Adam Plutko, whose contract was selected.
House has provided useful innings at the major league level when called upon, but hasn’t received a full shot since his promising run in 2014. He dealt with shoulder injuries last year, and hasn’t exactly had a smooth year at Triple-A.
Over his 72 1/3 innings at the highest level of the minors in 2016, House carries a 3.98 ERA. That number isn’t concerning in its own right, but he may have been fortunate to limit the damage to the extent he has. House has coughed up 89 hits and 43 walks while retiring only fifty batters via strikeout. House also has spent significantly more time than ever before working from the pen (21 appearances) rather than the rotation (12 starts).
As for Plutko, 24, the 2016 season will now bring both his Triple-A and his major league debut. Over his 90 innings at Columbus, following a strong run early on at Double-A, Plutko caries a 4.10 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9.
Marlins Designate Bryan Morris
The Marlins have reinstated righty Bryan Morris from the 60-day DL and designated him for assignment, per a team announcement. The 29-year-old has missed most of the year after undergoing back surgery.
Evidently, Miami decided that it would not be bringing Morris back for 2017, when he is arbitration eligible for the second time. He would have been seeking a minor raise on a reasonable $1.35MM salary this year.
Morris has done nothing but produce results at the major league level, with a 2.80 ERA over 215 career innings in the past five campaigns. And he not only has the big, mid-nineties fastball that one might associate with relief dominance, but typically generates grounders on about three of five balls put in play against him.
Look deeper, though, and the record is less impressive. Morris suffered a velocity drop this year, fell into single digits in swinging strike rate for the first time, and also lost some grounders over his 17 2/3 frames. He has never had a particularly impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio, and this season’s marks (6.6 K/9 against 5.1 BB/9) were worse than ever.
It’ll be interesting to see where Morris lands and how his career progresses from here. ERA estimators have never bought into his results, but he has succeeded over a rather lengthy span.
Central Notes: Epstein, Arrieta, Abreu, Indians, Vogelsong
ESPN.com’s Wright Thompson provides a worthwhile profile of Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein. While it’s mostly an interesting look at the veteran executive, the piece also contains an intriguing look behind the scenes in the Cubbies’ front office and a few bits of information on the team’s recent maneuvering.
Here’s more from the central divisions:
- The Cubs are aware of, but not particularly concerned over, a decline in Jake Arrieta‘s fastball velocity (and recent predilection for surrendering long balls), ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers writes. Skipper Joe Maddon suggested that Arrieta was looking to dial in his command in exchange for some velo, and noted that Arrieta’s exceptional movement made him difficult to hit regardless. As for the bigger heater, Maddon says that he “really believe[s] it’s in there” for the postseason.
- Across town, White Sox slugger Jose Abreu says that the difference between his club and the Royals is less about talent than it is “desire,” as Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago tweets. Abreu took responsibility for that assessment, saying that he needed to improve his on-field approach and help lead the team in that regard. It’s certainly an interesting and candid observation from a player of Abreu’s stature.
- With Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar sidelined, the Indians are considering utilizing a three-prong postseason rotation mix, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer would take the ball as traditional starters, with Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger piggybacking to make for a third rotation piece. That approach may be necessary given the team’s sudden and stunning lack of depth in what had been a huge area of strength, but it seems like the organization will be forced to push its two best remaining starters rather hard.
- The Pirates aren’t willing to commit at this point to giving righty Ryan Vogelsong another start, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. GM Neal Huntington says that the team is weighing his recent span of four awful outings against the quality showing that Vogelsong had made immediately upon returning from his injury. “Ryan feels there’s a mechanical adjustment that he can and will make moving forward,” Huntington said. “It’s hard to walk away from his first stretch of starts for us.” While that won’t have much of an impact on the Bucs’ fortunes this year, continued opportunity to work from the rotation could impact Vogelsong’s upcoming free agent case.
MLBTR Mailbag: Lucroy Deal, Phillies, Yankees, CarGo
Thanks as always for this week’s mailbag questions! We can’t answer ’em all, but be sure to join us for a chat — Steve (Tuesday, 2pm CST); Jason (Wednesday, 6:30pm CST); Jeff (Thursday, 2pm CST) — if we didn’t get to yours below.
Now that the PTBNL has been announced, how would you value the package that Texas gave up as opposed to what Cleveland had in place for Jonathan Lucroy? – Jonathan R.
With outfielder/infielder Ryan Cordell going to the Brewers, he bolsters a package that already included outfielder Lewis Brinson and right-hander Luis Ortiz. All three were considered top-ten prospects on a solid Texas farm, with Brinson and Ortiz also carrying consensus top-100 leaguewide billing. Remember, though, that this group of players also landed the Rangers right-hander Jeremy Jeffress, who was a quality asset in his own right.
By comparison, reports pegged the prospective deal with the Indians as involving a four-player package: catcher Francisco Mejia, shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang, outfielder Greg Allen, and righty Shawn Armstrong. By the prospect rankings, this group isn’t quite as impressive: only Mejia has been placed in the top-100 among all the game’s pre-MLB talents (in his case, only by Baseball Prospectus).
There are a couple of things to bear in mind here, though. First and foremost, prospect valuation is always-changing and is highly dependent upon any given team’s assessment. Both Brinson and Ortiz had their share of difficulties adapting to the upper minors; though they have had better results since the deal, the former doesn’t walk much and the latter hasn’t yet produced a lot of swings and misses. There’s a ton of upside there, but also some risk, even if Brinson’s glove props up his floor. Meanwhile, Cordell is already 24 and still seems to have some development ahead of him.
The other bunch represents a different mix of assets. Meanwhile, Mejia has had a breakout offensive year. Chang’s name came up in the Aroldis Chapman talks, and he has displayed emerging power this year. Allen delivers outstanding plate discipline, while Armstrong has a promising K rate and could step right into a big league pen.
Ultimately, the inclusion of Jeffress makes it hard to make a direct comparison. Certainly, the Indians package wouldn’t have delivered a headliner on the order of Brinson. But it’s not difficult to see why Milwaukee was intrigued by the return it had lined up — which included some rising prospects who seemingly fit well with the organization’s needs and philosophies. And it’s always wise to remind oneself of just how much you don’t know when it comes to prospects (generally and specifically!).
The Phils will go from worst record last year to almost breaking out of bottom 10 this year. If they add a veteran bat to go along with Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Tommy Joseph and other youngsters can they get to the .500 mark and possibly challenge for a Wild Card in 2017? – Joe P.
You can never rule out a quick turnaround, especially for an organization that has huge spending power and no guaranteed money on the books beyond the remnants of the Ryan Howard and Matt Harrison contracts. Still, though, it’s asking a lot for the club to move into contention in 2017.
A few major free agent signings could change that, of course, but where’s the incentive for the new-look front office? Fans are already aware that a rebuild is underway, with the focus on developing a new core that has shown plenty of promise. And the coming free agent market is not only largely devoid of pitching talent, but lacks for particularly youthful, high-end hitters.
There’s little doubt that the Phils will at least look into adding a productive veteran or two, with aims of bolstering their lineup and clubhouse without hamstringing the team’s future. But it’s probably too soon to wish for a dedicated effort at building out the major league roster through free agency or trade. There are just too many holes to plug, young players who’d have to immediately maximize their talent, and pitching questions (including the health of Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez and filling out the rotation and pen) that would need to turn out favorably to make contention likely.
With the Yankees still being the Yankees, and their relief corps seeming to be imploding as of late, is a guy like Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen more likely to be targeted in the off season, or are more smaller upgrades in order if any at all? – Nick A.
Are you sure they are still really the Yankees of old? GM Brian Cashman didn’t sign a single major league free agent last winter, and they just sold off parts at the deadline despite having a shot at cracking the postseason!
Honestly, I wouldn’t expect a win-at-all-costs spending spree this winter, on relievers or otherwise. That doesn’t mean the organization won’t utilize its financial advantage in its quest to add arms, but I’d bet on a thoughtful application of the cash. Though some big contracts are leaving the payroll, there’s already nearly $150MM on the books for 2017, so now may not be the time to take on many new entanglements.
For the Yankees, generally, I foresee efforts aimed at building out the current roster while avoiding parting with young talent or committing too much future payroll. For instance, signing a qualifying-offer-bound free agent may not be appealing, but taking on a relatively expensive, but short-term contract may be palatable.
Ultimately, building up the pen while also addressing the arguably-greater need in the rotation will require a multi-part strategy. Of course, with Andrew Miller joining Chapman in departing at the trade deadline, the idea of striking for a top-tier reliever is all the more appealing. But that approach likely wouldn’t be dictated by the relief unit’s current performance or be pursued in isolation.
How do y’all feel about park-adjusted stats? I feel like Carlos Gonzalez is hyped, but he benefits a great deal from playing at Coors Field. How does that impact his value? – Deke
I’ll speak only for myself, though I expect our other writers would feel similarly. Teams don’t simply look at the back of the baseball card, so neither do I. They want to look beyond the results, which includes adjusting for park, situation, and other factors but also quite a bit more — ferreting out useful information from underlying statistics, incorporating scouting analysis, considering softer factors, etc.
That is to say: yeah, I think you have to adjust his numbers to account for the fact that he plays at a launching pad. If only we had an easy way to … oh, wait, Fangraphs (wRC+) and Baseball-Reference.com (OPS+) are among the places to go to find fully adjusted and scaled (to a league mean of 100) batting statistics.
Personally, I find that more useful than just looking at home/road splits. What people don’t seem to realize is that Coors (and other hitter-friendly parks) “help” a player regardless of whether they end up with better or worse results there. (In theory — if we could fully isolate simple good fortune and differences in fielding, pitching, etc. — a poor batting line would have been even worse if the plate appearances occurred at a pitcher-friendly facility.)
So, what do the numbers say about CarGo? Though he owns a shiny .284/.338/.527 batting line over the last two seasons, with 65 home runs in 1,195 plate appearances, that’s not even quite 15% above the league average. Now, the power production is always going to draw some added attention, but Gonzalez’s overall batting effort is largely commensurate with the sort of offensive production that Josh Reddick has produced in recent years — though his line doesn’t seem nearly as impressive since he has spent so much time at the Coliseum — and isn’t anything close to the monster numbers of, say, Edwin Encarnacion.
I’ve always been a bit bearish on Gonzalez’s value, myself, not only because of those considerations but due to his extensive injury history and declining speed on the bases. Perhaps that’s one reason that the club hasn’t received huge offers for his services despite a fairly reasonable contract. It’s fair to note, though, that metrics liked his glovework this year, and the $20MM he is owed for 2017 is especially appealing since it comes in a rental scenario. (An acquiring team would be taking a much more limited risk.) The bottom line is that there’s real value in CarGo’s contract, just not as much as you might expect when looking at the counting stats and triple-slash.
Poll: Should The Marlins Shop Jose Fernandez This Offseason?
This time of year is as quiet as it gets in terms of actual baseball transactions, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t things happening beneath the surface. While postseason play remains the focus for contenders, all teams need to have at least one eye on an offseason that isn’t far away. Internal assessment and planning are obviously an ongoing task, and clubs are constantly engaged one another to see what opportunities may arise.
All that’s a way of setting up this morning’s poll question: as the Marlins enter the final two weeks of play with a .500 record that likely won’t deliver a postseason berth, should they be preparing to shop ace righty Jose Fernandez this winter? Or should they be thinking of ways to ensure that he stays in Miami for the long run?
Fernandez, who just turned 24, is an unquestioned ace. He has fully re-established himself since returning from Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.97 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 239 innings since making it back to the bigs last year.
Youth is certainly on Fernandez’s side, and he’s cheaper than he ought to be since the timing of the TJ surgery held down his first-year arbitration earnings ($2.8MM). He’ll command a huge raise on that number, of course, but still won’t be compensated at anything approaching his on-field value. The two remaining years of arb control are immensely valuable. (Remember, the Fish could’ve had another if they hadn’t placed Fernandez on the Opening Day roster back in 2013.)
That makes Fernandez a highly appealing trade candidate entering a winter in which the free agent class is historically sparse. Miami could target high-end young talent to improve a little-regarded farm system, angle for controllable major league pieces, or combine either or both of those targets with a request for some useful, reasonably-priced MLB assets at positions of need.
Of course, the same factors of affordability and performance also make Fernandez a potential extension candidate for the Marlins, who previously managed to lock up Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Dee Gordon. Fernandez’s late-twenties seasons won’t come cheap, but the Stephen Strasburg extension shows that it’s possible to keep a Scott Boras-repped ace so long as the player is motivated.
The question for the Marlins, ultimately, is multi-faceted. Can they win with their current roster, which has had success at times but lacks for starting pitching depth and has needs on the left side of the infield? Would they be better off — in the long-term, but perhaps also even in the short-term — to swap Fernandez out for a huge return of talent? If they want to keep him, can they afford what it might take to keep the Cuban-born star in Miami?
Figuring all that out will require an assessment not only of Fernandez, but also of the broader market situation. Starting pitching figures to be a focal point in trade talks this winter, with teams such as the White Sox (Chris Sale, Jose Quintana), Rays (Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb), and Braves (Julio Teheran) potentially weighing whether to cash in on a pitching-starved market. Fernandez is younger and arguably better (though that’s plenty debatable) than any of those pitchers, and would certainly draw immense interest, meaning Miami at least has to be wondering about the question that you are about to answer (link for mobile app users):
What Should The Marlins Do With Jose Fernandez This Winter?
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Try to extend him, but shop him if a deal seems unlikely. 41% (3,098)
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Put him on the trade block. 28% (2,126)
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Try to extend him, but keep him either way. 17% (1,300)
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Sit back and enjoy two more years of excellence. 13% (964)
Total votes: 7,488
Injury Notes: Choo, Cozart, Reynolds, Rea
Though expectations had been that Shin-Soo Choo would be out through mid-October after surgery on a fractured forearm, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports that he may be ready to return to the Rangers for an early postseason series. Choo could be taking BP with the big league club by the weekend if he continues to progress, and would then head to the instructional league to face live pitching. Texas skipper Jeff Banister said that the team misses Choo’s presence in the leadoff spot; he could provide a nice boost if he can remain on track.
Here’s more on some injury situations around the game:
- While the Reds aren’t officially ruling out shortstop Zack Cozart from returning this year, he is shut down for the moment, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Cozart is battling a sore knee, which is somewhat additionally concerning because he missed much of last year after requiring surgery on the joint. The 31-year-old was nearly dealt at the trade deadline, and still remains prime candidate to change hands this winter, but the second half of the year hasn’t exactly boosted his value. After a highly productive first half, the slick-fielding shortstop has limped to a .223/.291/.312 batting line with just two home runs over his last 173 trips to the plate. The tepid finish will also impact Cozart’s arbitration earning power; he’ll be entering his final arb year looking to build off of a $2.925MM salary.
- Rockies first baseman Mark Reynolds will not require surgery on his fractured left hand, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding tweets. His single season contract with Colorado is nevertheless already in the books, with the 33-year-old heading back onto the open market after the year. Over 441 plate appearances, Reynolds put up a .282/.356/.450 slash line with 14 home runs — good for approximately league-average overall production given that he played his home games at Coors Field. That’s not a terribly appealing batting line for a player who is limited to first base duties at this point, but he’ll surely still draw interest at least as a bench bat.
- Injured Padres righty Colin Rea is nearing a throwing program, manager Andy Green tells MLB.com’s Carlos Collazo (via Twitter). The 26-year-old, who was traded to the Marlins and then back to the Padres after he suffered an elbow injury, is trying to stave off Tommy John surgery with treatment, rest, and rehab. His progress will be interesting to watch, as he’d presumably hold down a rotation job next year for San Diego if his ulnar collateral ligament allows.
Astros Injury Updates: Keuchel, Bregman, McCullers
It seems rather unlikely that the Astros will receive further contributions in 2016 from lefty Dallas Keuchel or infielder Alex Bregman, according to updates from GM Jeff Luhnow, via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter links). There’s at least some positive momentum, though, for righty Lance McCullers Jr., who Luhnow says will throw off of a mound in the coming days, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets.
Keuchel, who is dealing with shoulder inflammation, wouldn’t be available unless the team is able to qualify for and “go pretty deep” in the postseason, per Luhnow. He has yet to begin throwing at this time, Kaplan tweets, so there’s obviously a long way to go. The 28-year-old last appeared on August 27th, so he’d certainly need to fully build back his arm strength even if the inflammation dies down.
The timeline isn’t much more optimistic for Bregman, whose hamstring injury is significant enough that it would typically require a four to six week layoff. While Luhnow suggests that it’s possible to push a recovery in this situation, even an aggressive timetable would seemingly leave the talented youngster unavailable until early October.
McCullers, meanwhile, has been out for much longer than the other two players with elbow issues. News on his progress has been limited since his last appearance on August 2nd. Presumably, the ‘Stros will continue to exercise caution with the prized 22-year-old. But it’s at least promising to hear that he is now in a position to begin working back toward mound work.
What’s clear is that Houston won’t receive any contributions from this key trio of players down the stretch. With a three-game gap between the club and a Wild Card spot entering today’s action, it’ll take a huge showing over the next two weeks just to gain a chance at the playoffs. If the Astros can somehow sneak in — and escape the one-game Wild Card play-in game — it’ll be interesting to see if any of the three are ready for activation for a full postseason series.