Brian McCann Could Net $100MM Deal
With strong interest from several big-budget American League clubs, catcher Brian McCann is looking at a perfect free agent storm that could net him a deal reaching $100MM, reports CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman. Soon to be thirty years of age, McCann is represented by B.B. Abbott.
The primary basis for Heyman's report is the fact that four clubs with a history of inking nine-figure deals could be chasing McCann. Each of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers could make a major upgrade by adding the left-handed-swinging backstop, says Heyman. He also names the Rockies and Giants as possibly interested clubs, though both seem less likely to make a real run.
One executive did tell Heyman that McCann could end up with multiple offers in the same range of around five years and $80MM, forcing him simply to decide where he'd like to play. But Heyman argues that the market alignment makes a "blow-away offer" a distinct possibility.
Choo Seeking To Exceed Werth’s $126MM Contract
Outgoing Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is being shopped above the seven-year, $126MM contract inked by Jayson Werth with the Nationals before the 2011 season, reports ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). The Scott Boras client, who is unquestionably one of the game's most attractive open market commodities, has long been rumored to be looking for nine figures, though a report yesterday said he was asking more in the $90MM range.
The Werth comparison does make sense, so far as it goes. Both Werth and Choo hit the market in their early thirties, coming off of high-OBP, mid-140-OPS+ campaigns. Werth has shown somewhat more pop, while Choo reaches base like few others. Each is regarded as a solid glove in the corner outfield. But as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained in profiling Choo, the Werth contract has been viewed as a non-precedential deal. Hence, he predicts, Choo will probably get something more like six years and $100MM. Of course, contextual perception is important; with Werth coming off of an outstanding year, Boras may be able to argue that the contract is hardly the albatross it has been characterized as.
Whether or not Boras can land a Werth-sized deal, there is little question that Choo is hitting free agency at an opportune time. The remaining corner outfield market is thin, Choo returned to his earlier-career levels of performance last year, and new TV money could provide a boost in salaries around the game.
Nationals Willing To Listen To Offers On Denard Span
Officials of competing clubs say that the Nationals appear willing to listen to offers on center fielder Denard Span, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The 29-year-old came to Washington via trade from the Twins, who received pitching prospect Alex Meyer in the deal.
Featuring stellar defense and a league-average bat (.279/.327/.380, 97 wRC+ in 2013), Span also swiped twenty bases last year. Most importantly, he comes with a very attractive contract that would fit in most teams' budgets, making Span a widely attractive trade target. He will be paid $6.5MM next year under the deal, which inludes a 2015 club option at $9MM with only a $500k buyout.
Presumably, Nats' GM Mike Rizzo would only seriously entertain the possibility of dealing Span if he wanted to clear room for a major acquisition. Though Heyman mentions the possibility of the Nats chasing Jacoby Ellsbury, it is also worth bearing in mind that the club could hypothetically add a corner outfielder and shift Bryce Harper to center. At this point, though, it is probably unwise to read too much into the report, as Rizzo could just be gauging how the market values his leadoff man.
Huntington: Qualifying Offer For Burnett Did Not Fit Budget
In an interview last night, Pirates GM Neal Huntington told David Todd of 970 ESPN (audio link) that the club did not make A.J. Burnett a qualifying offer because it could not afford the $14.1MM hit to its 2014 budget. (Hat tip to Bucs Dugout, where MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth discussed the impact of Huntington's words from the Pirates' perspective.)
Though the Bucs will increase payroll, said Huntington, a qualifying offer-level salary occupies a "significant chunk of your payroll" for low-budget clubs. Comparing the Pirates to teams like the Rays and A's, he explained that building a winner in a small market is more complicated than just getting players at reasonably sub-market rates:
"It's not where we value A.J. Burnett, it's how do we build a championship team in the big picture. And as we look to fill some of the other gaps that we have, or we look to upgrade some of the other spots we feel we'd like to upgrade and should upgrade if possible, we felt that $14MM in one player was a bit steep for us."
Huntington sounded less than sanguine about the odds of a return, saying only that Pittsburgh is "still kind of trying to keep that door open" while declining to answer whether discussions were active. After earning every bit of his $16.5MM salary last year, Burnett would apparently need to accept a significant salary cut to don gold and black again in 2014. (After correctly forecasting that the Bucs would not extend a QO, MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted that Burnett would ultimately take a salary cut to $12MM on a one-year deal.)
On the other hand, there are certainly strategic explanations for these comments. Burnett may have burned some leverage by saying he'd either come back to Pittsburgh or retire, perhaps leaving more room for the Buccos to try and bust down the rate. As Huntington discussed in the interview, his club's narrow margin for error makes every dollar count, and any savings on the Burnett deal could make a big difference in the club's other offseason plans.
Huntington went on to criticize the QO system, noting that the Yankees and Red Sox made six of the thirteen offers. The system "didn't really do what it was intended to do," said Huntington, offering his opinion that the Indians and Royals probably hope that their offerees — Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana — decline.
On the issue of national TV money, Huntington noted that, contrary to the oft-repeated line, "it's not $25MM to every team." That is an average, he said: the team does not yet have its precise distribution, and the Commissioner could hold back some dollars for league-wide initiatives.
Either way, according to Huntington, small market teams won't get any relative advantage from the new money. Todd suggested that the high payroll clubs would begin to have luxury tax issues if they spent up their new cash, resulting in a net benefit to small-market clubs. But Huntington said the luxury tax "hasn't been that big of a drag on those [teams] that have gone over it," at least when they can avoid too many years in a row above the line.
Future Salary Obligations In Context, Part II
On Wednesday, I pulled together some salary information from Cot's Baseball Contracts in an attempt to give some context to teams' overall future salary commitments. Check out that post for background, and bear in mind we are only talking about post-2014 payroll. With the benefit of receiving comments and thinking about what I wrote, I decided to utilize the information in a few more ways.
First, as I noted in a comment, simply summing the future obligations only tells part of the story. A better, more complete analysis would discount later-in-time salary to a present value. Dave Cameron had a great piece recently on Fangraphs discussing the way in which contracts for elite free agents have tended to tack on additional years at the back end rather than increasing average annual value for a shorter term. As he noted, baseball payrolls have grown at about 3.5% on average over the last ten years. That kind of inflation — in concert with the time-value of money — makes a future dollar less valuable than a present one.
The difficulty remains in arriving at an appropriate rate by which to discount the future obligations. While I am not equipped to undertake that complicated and inexact task, it occurred to me that there is another option: simply chart out the different possible rates to show what would occur at a given percentage. I chose to use a range between zero and ten percent because opening day payrolls have increased by around 5-6% over the last two years and because the reported infusion of TV money could theoretically lead to a jump in salaries. Bear in mind, though, that the higher end of the scale is exceedingly unlikely — it is a ten-year period, after all — and is really included for illustrative purposes.
Here are the results, which show how different discount rates would impact each teams' future obligations. You'll need to open the image to view it.
[All numbers are in millions. An explanation on the columns: "x% discount" shows the present value of a club's future obligations at a given discount rate; "sum saved" shows the difference between the non-discounted obligations and the value as discounted; and "pct saved" shows the relative impact on each team's obligations at each rate. And I'll note that I updated the information to include the Rangers' recent extension of Martin Perez.]
Remember, there is nothing inherently good or bad about taking on, as opposed to avoiding, future obligations. And there are good reasons to backload, or frontload, those commitments. This is just a tool to help understand the numbers. Click below for a closer look at a few salient aspects of this chart, and some additional team-by-team information and observations.
Indians Unlikely To Re-Sign Hurlers Jimenez, Kazmir, Smith, Albers
The Indians' best free agent pitchers — Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Joe Smith, and Matt Albers — are all expected to be lured away by better offers to throw elsewhere in spite of the club's interest in retaining them, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Here is Hoynes' take on that group of arms, and other news out of Cleveland:
- Jimenez is expected, unsurprisingly, to reject the Indians' $14.1MM qualifying offer. MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted that Jimenez would be able to find three years and $39MM on the open market, and could possibly even score an Edwin Jackson-like four-and-$50MM+ deal.
- Kazmir and Smith are both seeking more years than the Indians want to give. Cleveland wants to do a one-year deal with the former and would go to two for the latter, but they are seeking at least one additional guaranteed season.
- GM Chris Antonetti feels the club is protected if these pitchers find greener pastures, however, noting that the organization has "seven quality major league alternatives in the starting rotation with Justin Masterson, Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer." Nevertheless, a veteran starter and pen pieces are definitely on Antonetti's wish list, says Hoynes. The club has already made contact with Tim Hudson, and Hoynes lists a series of other possible targets.
- As for the relief corps, Hoynes says to expect an internal candidate — most likely, Cody Allen or Bryan Shaw — to be tapped as the closer. As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth has explained, Allen looks to profile as a worthy replacement for outgoing ninth inning man Chris Perez. Antonetti said that the team has "some talented pitchers in the back end of the bullpen." An opportunistic move on one of the closer types that are available in free agency is certainly possible, but seems not to rank atop the club's priorities.
- Indeed, a pricey spend on a closer may not make sense for a club that — according to Hoynes — projects to maintain a payroll in the $80MM range. With about $70MM already wrapped up after consider the team's arb-eligibles, Antonetti doesn't have a ton of room to work with. Though last year's free agent binge was made possible by ownership's TV network sale, Hoynes adds, the anticipated $25MM national broadcasting cash infusion will be enjoyed by every other club as well. It is worth noting, also, that the annual salaries of both of last year's big free agent signees — Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn — take big jumps this year ($4MM and $6.5MM, respectively), which accounts for a substantial part of the increased payroll pressure.
- Finally, look for the Indians to open discussions with Justin Masterson about an extension, says Hoynes. As he notes in the piece, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently opined that it would probably take a five year pact somewhere between the $65MM given John Danks and Jered Weaver's $85MM.
Yankees Notes: Cano, Rodriguez, Closer, Starters
Baseball's best rivalry … Dodgers-Giants? Yanks-Sox? Or, perhaps, Scott Boras-Jay-Z. As Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com writes in a fascinating piece, the rapper-turned-mogul's challenge to baseball's old school super agent is a real one, but the success of the gambit could turn on whether or not Jay-Z lands Robinson Cano a contract that befits his status as the game's premier free agent. Here's more on Cano and the Yanks:
- There has been no recent movement in negotiations between the Yankees' front office and Cano's representatives, reports Dan Martin of the New York Post (hat tip to Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues). Martin also explains that Cano has yet to get a read on what other teams might be willing to pay.
- Indeed, Cano has acknowledged that no other clubs have made an offer, according to Christian Red of the New York Daily News. Of course, that is far from surprising at this early stage.
- Meanwhile, the Alex Rodriguez grievance proceedings remain a constraint on the club, according to manager Joe Girardi. As the Associated Press reports (via the Boston Herald), Girardi said that the club needs to know as soon as possible whether it needs to acquire a full-time third baseman for next season.
- The skipper also declined to annoint David Robertson as the team's closer, saying "we've got to see what we can put together as a team as a whole before we do anything." The back of the bullpen may not be the Bombers' biggest area of need, but there are a lot of guys with closing experience hoping that it is on the radar.
- If the Yanks lose Hiroki Kuroda and/or fail to land Masahiro Tanaka, power pitchers could make up the backup plan, the New York Post's Joel Sherman wrote yesterday. Sherman notes Josh Johnson and Dan Haren as possibilities, while his Post colleague George A. King III says that the club could be in on Ubaldo Jimenez.
Phillies Have Made Offers To Free Agents, Will Not Wait On Ruiz
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says that the club has "already made offers to several players," reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. Though no specific offer targets are identified in the piece, it seems that Amaro intends to act aggressively. As Zolecki notes, that is what happened back in 2011, when the Phils moved fast on Jonathan Papelbon.
One player that could be feeling the heat from Amaro is longtime Phils catcher Carlos Ruiz. Amaro said he feels there are "several candidates that could be our catcher next year," Zolecki reports. And the Philly GM also made clear that he had no interest in a prolonged dalliance with Ruiz, as occurred with Jimmy Rollins in 2011.
"There will be very little chance of bringing Chooch back" if that kind of delay takes place, Amaro told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, because the club "can't afford to miss out on other opportunities." Though Amaro indicated that he believes Ruiz is still a fit with the club, he says his front office is "perusing the landscape of catching right now."
Philly may need to make a sizeable commitment to get Ruiz to commit early. He seems to have had his fair share of interest and would be a solid fallback for teams that miss on Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, or prefer a more reasonably priced alternative. Most recently, we learned that the Rockies are expected to dangle multiple years at the veteran over the coming days.
Santana Seeks $100MM; Nolasco Looking For $80MM
Free agent, right-handed starters Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco are both looking for five-year deals, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The former hopes to earn a $100MM guarantee, while Nolasco is asking for $80MM, sources tell Rosenthal.
Of course, it is still early, and players' agents are probably still feeling out how baseball's revenue increases will translate to free agent dollars. The pair of durable thirty-year-olds, who were born within a day of each other, just put up respective 3.0 fWAR campaigns. For Santana, his 3.24 ERA over 211 innings for the Royals was a marked improvement on a terrible 2012. Throwing for the Marlins and Dodgers, Nolasco's 3.70 ERA across 199 1/3 innings was his best since 2008. Santana is still weighing a qualifying offer, though there is little doubt he'll reject it, while Nolasco was ineligible due to his mid-season trade.
MLBTR recently provided full profiles of both pitchers. Steve Adams predicted a five-year, $75MM pact for Santana. And after profiling Nolasco back in September, Tim Dierkes upped his estimate on Nolasco to four years and $52MM in his list of the top fifty free agents.
Sherman On Mets: Choo, Davis, Peralta
Look for a lot of change to the Mets for 2014, says Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman projects a revamped lineup, not as a specific prediction, but as representative of the kinds of additions the front office is contemplating. It includes Norichika Aoki in the leadoff spot, Andre Ethier batting cleanup, and Jhonny Peralta manning short. Here are the key takeaways from Sherman's piece:
- The Mets are much less likely to chase after top free agents like Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury than they are to add multiple pieces.
- Ike Davis is very likely to be dealt, with Lucas Duda getting an opportunity to play first. Sherman suggests that a Davis-for-Aoki swap could save the Mets money and create a better fit for New York.
- Peralta is definitely on the club's radar, and they could try to sign him early in order to set the tone for the offseason. If they fail to land Peralta, says Sherman, the Mets will check in on the trade market to fill their shortstop void.
- Though Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler may well be off limits, the Mets could deal from their other pitching depth, including Rafael Montero. Sherman floats the concept of a trade with the Dodgers for Ethier or even Matt Kemp, and notes that the team might otherwise pursue Curtis Granderson in free agency.
- Look for the addition of several veteran depth pieces in the pitching staff and bench, says Sherman.