Author: Jeff Todd

A full list of the future salary numbers is too unwieldy to include here, but you can click on this link to download an Excel file that has all of that data:  Download Future commitments by team. For more visually pleasing access, here is a version of the chart showing the (rounded) payroll numbers by year, which you'll need to open in full view to really take in:

These numbers are interesting on their own. But baseball teams, of course, have widely varying payroll capacities. I therefore thought it useful to consider spending capacity as well. In need of a rough proxy for capacity, I chose to compare future commitments to teams' franchise-high opening day payrolls. That is surely an imperfect mechanism, but is good enough as a starting point. (For what it's worth, I ran the ratios using teams' average payrolls from 2011-13, and the resulting order was not materially different.) The following organizations have the highest ratio of future obligations to single-season high payroll (pre-2014):

Viewed this way, the Reds and Giants have perhaps extended themselves even more than the other larger-payroll clubs near the top of the list. The risk those clubs have taken is fairly substantial, particularly since much of their down-the-line cash is dedicated to just a few big-budget players like Joey Votto and Buster Posey. Much the same holds for the Rays, who have made a sizeable commitment to Evan Longoria; though he profiles as a substantial value, there is no question that his nine-figure contract carries extra risk to Tampa. (Compare Tampa's current balance sheet with that of the A's. It will be interesting to see whether the latter begin to add down-the-line commitments over the coming offseason.)

You could use these numbers to argue that some clubs have, to some extent, mortgaged their futures. On the other hand, of course, players under contract will (barring injury) provide production, even if it will likely decline over time. And another way of looking at things is that "high-ratio" clubs stand to gain the most from an inflationary salary environment.

One team is noticeably absent from the above list: the Phillies, who are often mentioned as a team with troubling long-term commitments. Of course, that view is based in large part on a subjective assessment of the team's spending promises. Ryan Howard, in particular, looks to be a troubling burden. But the numbers do support some cause for concern as well, even though Philadelphia has a middle-of-the-pack ratio of 1.29. The Phils are among the teams that have committed the highest average annual value, meaning that their big commitments have bought them relatively few actual seasons of play. To wit:

[NOTE: the original version of this post contained an incorrect chart of teams with the highest AAV of 2015-2024 obligations. First, those figures included 2014 numbers. Second, the Phillies' calculation did not account for Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, whose relatively low salary drops the AAV.]

Two clubs, then stand high atop both the ratio and the AAV lists: the Tigers and Angels. For the Halos, in particular, the numbers seem to support the concerns that many have raised about the club's long-term payroll burdens. Arguably possessing two of baseball's very worst contracts, the club's handling of Mike Trout — the game's most valuable asset — gains even greater importance. 

Looking at the ratio of future commitments to team-high payroll yields some interesting observations on the low side as well. In particular, among the club's with the lowest ratio are two notorious big spenders. 

Sitting there amongst several clubs that have cleared out payroll or traditionally carry salaries below the top of the market, one finds two of baseball's most powerful organizations: the Yankees and Red Sox. Both have substantially less in total future comments than they have shown the capacity and willingness to spend in a single season. In other words, these two AL East powerhouses have plenty of room to backload deals. (For the Yanks, the luxury tax could still pose a challenge in the immediate term, though the club's relatively clear future ledger could help them dip under the line for a year to reset its tax hit.) That is probably good news for players hitting free agency this year and next.

It is worth emphasizing how well the Sox appear to be positioned in this light. GM Ben Cherington sent about $150MM in 2015-onward commitments to the Dodgers in the 2012 blockbuster (Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford) and added just $13MM back in the club's free agent signings last offseason (Shane Victorino). Fresh off a World Series victory, Boston possesses upper level talent in a well-regarded farm system, wields some of the game's deepest pockets, and is carrying the long-term obligations of a rebuilding club. Cherington has earned his club a great hand; it will be fascinating to see how he plays it.