MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Angels Reportedly Focused On Short-Term Rotation Additions
After agreeing to terms on a one-year contract with Noah Syndergaard earlier today, the Angels are still in the market for rotation upgrades but are focused on impact arms available on short-term deals, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Heyman suggests Justin Verlander as a potential match in that regard, and the Halos were in attendance at Verlander’s recent showcase.
That said, it’s not clear whether Verlander would be amenable to a one-year pact. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that he expected Verlander to pursue a contract “of some length,” suggesting at least a two-year deal with those comments. A two-year deal for a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber doesn’t seem outlandish, even with the future Hall of Famer’s lengthy layoff due to 2020 Tommy John surgery. Verlander received an $18.4MM qualifying offer from Houston last week and is widely expected to turn it down.
Any multi-year pact at all would require a philosophical change for an Angels team that hasn’t signed a free-agent starter to a multi-year deal since then-GM Jerry Dipoto (now the Mariners’ president of baseball operations) inked Joe Blanton to a modest two-year contract. The only multi-year deals the Angels have given to any pitchers since that time have come in the form of a two-year extension for closer Huston Street in 2015 and a two-year deal that bought out Shohei Ohtani‘s first two arbitration seasons. Prior to this morning’s agreement with Syndergaard, the last time the Angels had spent even $20MM to sign or extend a pitcher came in Dec. 2011 when they signed C.J. Wilson to a five-year pact.
The Angels have now cycled though several different general managers in that time. Dipoto resigned in 2015 following a highly publicized spat with former Halos skipper Mike Scioscia and was replaced by veteran executive Bill Stoneman on an interim basis. Billy Eppler ran baseball operations for the next half decade in Anaheim, and he was replaced last offseason by Perry Minasian — now in his second offseason as general manager.
It’s unlikely that all of those baseball ops leaders were staunchly against multi-year pacts for free agents — particularly not when rotation needs were often so obvious. The common thread throughout the aversion to pitching commitments of any length is owner Arte Moreno, who has shown a clear willingness to spend heavily on bats (e.g. Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Justin Upton) but not on arms.
Only time will tell whether Minasian will be given the latitude to issue a multi-year deal of even minor note, but this morning’s deal with Syndergaard seemed straight out of the playbook from prior offseasons: a one-year deal of note for a pitcher with a strong track record and/or a fair bit of upside. That’s the same formula that led to signings of Matt Harvey, Julio Teheran, Jose Quintana and Trevor Cahill, though the Halos will surely hope for better results from their sizable investment in Syndergaard.
If the ostensible insistence on one-year arrangements for starters continues, there are certainly some notable names on the open market who could potentially be had at that term (e.g. Zack Greinke, Danny Duffy, Johnny Cueto, Rich Hill). However, a strong ownership preference for short-term deals could also conceivably push Minasian to the trade market, where the Reds, Marlins and division-rival Athletics ought to all have notable arms on which they’re willing to listen.
After signing Syndergaard, the Angels owe $129.95MM in guaranteed contracts to six players. Add in a modest arbitration class and pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and they’re projected for around $150MM in 2022 payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s plenty of space between that sum and last year’s franchise-record $182MM Opening Day payroll — which Moreno could well be comfortable raising. But for Angels fans hoping to see a match with Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman or Kevin Gausman, reports of a continued fixation on short-term deals don’t bode especially well.
Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners closed the book on what turned out to be a roughly two-year rebuild with a 90-win season that saw them fight for a Wild Card berth up until the final series of the season. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will add aggressively this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Marco Gonzales, LHP: $24MM through 2024 (contract includes $15MM club option for 2025, with no buyout)
- Evan White, 1B: $21.4MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; contract also includes 2027-28 club options)
- Ken Giles, RHP: $5.5MM through 2022 (includes $500K buyout of $9.5MM club option for 2023)
- Chris Flexen, RHP: $2.75MM through 2022 (contract includes $4MM* club option for 2023)
- Total 2022 commitment: $14.65MM
- Total long-term commitments: $53.65MM
*=Flexen’s option price doubles to $8MM with 300 total innings from 2021-22; he pitched 179 2/3 innings in 2021.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Mitch Haniger – $8.5MM
- Drew Steckenrider – $2.1MM
- Tom Murphy – $1.7MM
- J.P. Crawford – $5.0MM
- Diego Castillo – $2.6MM
- Paul Sewald – $1.8MM
- Casey Sadler – $1.3MM
- Dylan Moore – $1.6MM
- Luis Torrens – $1.6MM
- Non-tender candidate: Moore
Option Decisions
- Declined $20MM option on 3B Kyle Seager in favor of $2MM buyout
- Declined four-year, $66MM option on LHP Yusei Kikuchi; Kikuchi declined $13MM player option to become free agent
Free Agents
- Kyle Seager, Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, Joe Smith, James Paxton, Sean Doolittle, Hector Santiago, Shed Long Jr.*, Jake Bauers, Ryan Weber*, Marcus Wilson* (*=outrighted and elected free agency after season ended)
Over the past three years, the Mariners have traded James Paxton, Omar Narvaez, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jean Segura, Edwin Encarnacion, Roenis Elias, Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Kendall Graveman with an eye toward the future. This year’s deadline trade sending Graveman to the division-rival Astros in exchange for five years of control over Abraham Toro could go down as the final forward-looking, “big picture” trade of a veteran for young talent.
After all, the Mariners were in playoff contention until the very end of the year. They fell just shy of their first postseason appearance in two decades — the longest drought in Major League Baseball — but the performance of the young core acquired by Dipoto & Co. sets the stage for an active offseason.
One change that appears certain lies at third base. Kyle Seager, the heart and soul of this Mariners club for many years, fought back tears when manager Scott Servais pulled him from the ninth inning of Seattle’s final game. In one of the more emotional moments of the year throughout all of MLB (video link), the home fans chanted Seager’s name as the dugout emptied and he hugged and bid farewell to the only team he’s known. Seager was given the third base bag and took a curtain call clutching it over his head as he thanked a raucous fan base.
It’s almost symbolic, in a bittersweet way for fans, that this turning of the page coincides with the face of the Mariners for the past several seasons likely leaving. Seager’s $20MM option was declined at season’s end, and while a reunion can’t be expressly ruled out, the scene at T-Mobile Park on Oct. 3 certainly had the feel of a goodbye.
There’s no “replacing” a player this revered and beloved in the clubhouse — shortstop J.P. Crawford could scarcely speak when praising Seager after that final game — but Seager’s likely departure leaves an opening in the lineup. The aforementioned Toro could step into an everyday role in that spot but can also play second. Similarly, Ty France has experience at third base but is a better defender at first or second base.
Given how little the Mariners have on the books in 2022, there’s really no free agent who should be off limits. Seattle has only $14.65MM in guaranteed 2022 contracts, and the arbitration class should only bump that number to around $40MM. This is the same ownership group that averaged an Opening Day payroll of $152.1MM from 2017-19.
Dipoto has already said this winter that he’ll prioritize “adaptable” free agents — those who are comfortable moving around if need be. He name-checked both Marcus Semien and Javier Baez when making those comments, instantly making each a potential fit. Kris Bryant is another such option — a possible everyday third baseman who could fill in as needed across the diamond or at any of the three outfield spots. Old friend Chris Taylor, meanwhile, has built a career on being “adaptable.”
What’s become clear is that there’s little interest in displacing Crawford at shortstop. The 26-year-old (27 in January) won a Gold Glove in 2020 and has cemented himself as a quality defender with an improving bat (.273/.338/.376 in 2021). Dipoto has already informed Crawford that the Mariners see him as the everyday shortstop. Perhaps Crawford would be amenable to sliding elsewhere if the Mariners got serious in a pursuit of Carlos Correa, but it seems far likelier they’ll make a run at players in the Bryant/Semien/Baez/Taylor tiers. Trevor Story is also in that “second” tier of free-agent shortstops and could feasibly improve his market by showing an openness to second base.
While Crawford, France and Toro each have 2022 spots locked down, Evan White’s future is less certain. The 25-year-old was the No. 17 pick in 2017 and inked a six-year, $24MM contract with three club options before making his MLB debut. So far, he’s struggled to a .165/.235/.308 slash in the Majors. It’s only 304 plate appearances, however, and White was surely hampered by a 2021 hip injury that required surgery. There’s still room for him to be a part of the future — he’s earning just $1.4MM in 2022 — but it’s tough to pencil him into the Opening Day lineup in a win-now season, especially with France’s breakout at first.
The Mariners don’t have a set DH and could use that spot as an opportunity to add even more offense — a Nelson Cruz reunion would be well-received by fans, for instance — but there’s no indication that’s a priority. In fact, keeping the DH spot relatively free may be of particular importance as the team hopes for better health from 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.
A career .258/.343/.450 hitter (121 wRC+) through his first 464 MLB plate appearances, Lewis was limited to 36 games this year after undergoing surgery to repair a right meniscus tear. It’s not the first time he’s encountered right knee troubles; Lewis suffered a dual meniscus tear and ACL tear in that same knee in 2016. Setting aside some occasional DH reps for him could have obvious benefits.
Beyond Lewis, the M’s have two of the game’s most highly touted young outfielders in Jarred Kelenic and the yet-to-debut Julio Rodriguez. Kelenic struggled in his first taste of the Majors but improved with a .233/.304/.455 line following the trade deadline and a .248/.331/.524 showing over his final month. Rodriguez, meanwhile, posted a ludicrous .347/.441/.560 line between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s considered a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball and could debut in early 2022.
Even after the trio of Lewis, Kelenic and Rodriguez, the Mariners are deep. Taylor Trammell had his own struggles during his 2021 debut, but he’s another now-former Top 100 prospect who posted solid numbers in Triple-A (.263/.362/.456) and only recently turned 24. Jake Fraley didn’t hit for average but was an OBP machine who walked in more than 17% of his plate appearances. And, of course, veteran right fielder Mitch Haniger returned from a harrowing sequence of fluke injuries to crush a career-high 39 home runs.
Haniger’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit for years now, and there will surely be fans and pundits who speculate on his availability once again now that he’s a year from free agency. Howver, it’d be difficult to move him when he’s projected for a palatable $8.5MM salary and was a key middle-of-the-lineup presence in 2021. Seattle’s aim this winter is to deepen the lineup, and a trade of Haniger would run counter to that thinking. Dipoto is an open-minded baseball ops leader and could at least listen to offers, but a Haniger extension seems more prudent to explore than a possible trade.
Behind the plate, the M’s have a trio of options. Tom Murphy gives them a veteran who has had some big league success, while either Cal Raleigh or Luis Torrens could be a long-term solution. That depth could draw the interest of other clubs in need of catching help, with the Marlins standing out as a team who could entice the Mariners with some starting pitching.
The rotation will be a focus for Seattle this winter. Marco Gonzales shook off a terrible April, returning from a five-week IL stint to log a 3.60 ERA in his final 115 frames. Last winter’s low-cost dice roll on KBO breakout Chris Flexen was an overwhelming success, as Flexen turned in a 3.61 ERA over 179 2/3 innings. Top prospect Logan Gilbert had a rough patch in the middle of the season but was dominant down the stretch, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over his final six starts. With a 4.68 ERA overall and terrific strikeout and walk rates, he earned a spot in 2022.
After that trio, there’s not as much certainty. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn were notable acquisitions during the rebuild but might be looking at bullpen roles in the future, given their struggles and a slate of impressive prospects yet to come. First-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock are still on the rise, and 2019 second-rounder Brandon Williamson has only seen his stock soar since the draft. Matt Brash dominated in the minors and has likely already made the Padres regret parting with him in a trade to acquire Taylor Williams.
Even with all those prospects nearing the big leagues, the Mariners’ win-now mantra will push them to bring in some established veterans. With so much payroll space, there’s no reason to think the Mariners couldn’t ink one of the top pitchers on the market even after signing a free-agent bat. However, the safer bet may be to add some solid mid-rotation arms as opposed to the type of $100MM+ deals that could be commanded by Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.
The market has plenty of options, including Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Steven Matz. If the Mariners are open to some risk, Carlos Rodon was one of the game’s best starters when healthy this season but ended the year with some concerning shoulder troubles. A team in Seattle’s spot could view Rodon’s late injury flags as a means of buying a possible No. 1 starter at a discount. The downside is obvious with a pitcher who managed just 36 innings in the final 10 weeks of the season and saw a rapid drop in his fastball velocity, but with so many prospects providing depth, perhaps the Mariners can take that chance.
This is the first time under Dipoto that the Mariners are likely to be more active in free agency than in trades, but there’s probably a limit to how much they’ll spend on the open market. With the need for a big bat and at least one — if not two — rotation spots open, the Mariners will surely explore that route. By now, it’s well known that names like Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Merrill Kelly and others could be available on the trade market.
That said, fans of other clubs dreaming up scenarios to acquire the likes of Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, Kirby, Hancock and other Mariners top prospects may want to pump the brakes. Dipoto said at the GM Meetings last week that there’s “no scenario” where he’ll move the very top prospects in his organization (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). Seattle has Baseball America’s top-ranked farm system though, so there’s plenty of value even in the middle tiers that could be used in trades. It’s also plausible that a controllable player without a clear path to playing time (e.g. Trammell, Fraley) could be part of a package for immediate help — be it in the lineup, the rotation or the bullpen.
Of course, the Mariners’ need for relief pitching is less acute, especially if Sheffield and Dunn join this mix. Breakout righty Paul Sewald went from a struggling Mets depth piece to a powerhouse closing option who fanned nearly 40% of his 2021 opponents. The M’s struck gold on a minor league deal for Drew Steckenrider and picked up a big-time righty from the Rays at the deadline in Diego Castillo. Former All-Star Ken Giles will join that trio in 2022 when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Casey Sadler won’t repeat his ridiculous 0.67 ERA but has locked a spot down. Seattle also received promising showings from Erik Swanson and Yohan Ramirez, and they’ll have a full season of Andres Munoz and his triple-digit heater now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery.
If there’s one area the Mariners are lacking, it’s a lefty. A pursuit of Andrew Chafin or Aaron Loup seems sensible, and this is another area where a trade might make sense. The M’s could also look at Sheffield here and/or give Anthony Misiewicz a bigger look. Misiewicz’s 4.61 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but he had better marks from metrics like FIP and SIERA.
However the Mariners choose to attack the offseason, it’s unlikely to look like any we’ve previously seen since Dipoto took the reins in Seattle. He’s previously preferred to operate primarily on the trade market, but the Mariners have gotten to that sweet spot where their squeaky clean payroll outlook overlaps with an elite farm that is teeming with MLB-ready talent. The nexus of those two enviable characteristics should open the door for considerable spending this winter and perhaps another big swing on the trade front. The Mariners are veritable locks to add at least one impact bat (likely in the infield) and figure to be active in bolstering the rotation.
With the Athletics going into an obvious rebuild, the Rangers still working to emerge from their own building phase and the Astros perhaps bidding farewell to free agent Carlos Correa, the Mariners’ time is now. They know it, and so does the rest of the industry. It’s going to be a fun offseason for Seattle fans.
Nationals Re-Sign Jefry Rodriguez To Minor League Deal
The Nationals have brought right-handers Jefry Rodriguez and Luis Reyes back to the organization on a pair of minor league deals, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.
Rodriguez, 28, has spent time in Majors in parts of three seasons, including a pair of separate stints with the Nats. He’s totaled 123 innings of 5.34 ERA ball between Washington and Cleveland, striking out 16.8% of his opponents against a 13.7% walk rate that is far too high. He tossed 24 1/3 frames for the Nationals in 2021, yielding an unsightly 16 runs on 25 hits and 17 walks with 20 strikeouts.
Rough big league numbers notwithstanding, Rodriguez posted strong numbers in the middle levels of the minors and has a 4.29 ERA in 100 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate in Triple-A still leave something to be desired, but Rodriguez has posted decent run-prevention numbers throughout his minor league tenure and still sits around 95 mph with his heater.
The 27-year-old Reyes will give the Nats some innings in the upper minors as well. He’s spent parts of eight minor league seasons in the Nationals organization since signing as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic in 2012. Reyes split the 2021 season between Double-A and Triple-A, pitching to a combined 5.19 ERA in 126 2/3 innings. He’s spent his entire pro career to this point in the same organization and will hope for an opportunity to make his debut at some point in the 2022 season.
Both Rodriguez and Reyes return as depth options for a Nationals club that is in clear need of stockpiling just that. With Max Scherzer now a free agent, Joe Ross ending the season with a slight UCL tear (which did not require surgery) and both Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin coming off disappointing 2021 campaigns, Washington’s once-vaunted rotation is rather suddenly a collection of question marks.
The Nats will likely give young righty Josiah Gray plenty of opportunity in 2022, and it’s all but a certainty that they’ll add a veteran starter or two this winter. Still, retaining some familiar organizational depth makes some sense for them, and they’ll probably be on the lookout for other rotation hopefuls they can bring into the fold on non-guaranteed pacts in addition to whatever Major League deals are signed. The Nats also brought back lefty Sean Nolin on a minor league deal earlier this month.
Mariners Announce 2022 Coaching Staff
The Mariners on Monday announced a series of departures and promotions as they set their coaching staff for the 2022 season. Manager Scott Servais was already known to be returning after agreeing to a multi-year extension on Sept. 1, but there will be some changes on his staff.
Tony Arnerich, who has spent the past two seasons as the team’s minor league field coordinator and catching coordinator, will be one of two co-hitting coaches on next year’s club. Also being promoted to the role of hitting coach and to the broader title of director of hitting strategy is Jarret DeHart, who was an assistant hitting coach in each of the past two seasons.
Seattle is also adding longtime director of player development Andy McKay to the Major League coaching staff, where he’ll be in uniform and serve as a Major League coach and senior director of baseball development. It’ll be his first year on the coaching staff but his seventh in the organization.
A more recognizable name for many fans is likely Kristopher Negron, who retired as a player just two years ago but will now be the Mariners’ first base coach. Negron worked as an assistant to McKay in 2020, his first year with the team, and won Triple-A Manager of the Year honors this past season in guiding the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate to a league championship.
Beyond this quartet, the Mariners will also welcome back pitching coach Pete Woodworth, third base coach Manny Acta, bullpen coach Trent Blank, infield coach Perry Hill and Major League field coordinator Carson Vitale.
Notably absent from the list of returnees are now-former hitting coach Tim Laker and now-former bench coach Jared Sandberg. Laker, the Mariners announced, declined an offer to return to the team in 2022, which prompted the promotions for DeHart and Arnerich. Sandberg, meanwhile, was not asked back.
Sandberg’s departure from the coaching staff leaves the Mariners without a bench coach, but it doesn’t appear that they’ll make a hire in that regard. The Mariners announced today’s staff as their finalized staff for the 2022 season and, asked specifically by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer about the lack of a bench coach (Twitter link), president of baseball operations confirmed that the collection of coaches announced today will “provide [Servais] with a variety of voices he trusts.”
“Our mantra here is ‘Doesn’t Matter, Get Better’ and our coaches embodied that in 2021,” Servais said in a statement within today’s press release. “Each and every day they assisted in helping our players improve and that hard work showed up on the field. Between the returning staff and the coaches we’ve been able to add from our player development group, every person on this staff has had a hand in helping our players succeed in their careers, and I’m looking forward to seeing more of that success in 2022.”
Jonathan India, Randy Arozarena Win Rookie Of The Year Awards
Reds second baseman Jonathan India and Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena have been voted the 2021 Rookie of the Year in the National League and American League, respectively, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced Monday evening.
India, 24, won in near-unanimous fashion, securing 29 of 30 first-place votes. Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers took the lone other first-place vote, as well as 26 second-place votes. Arozarena, meanwhile, received 22 of 30 first-place votes, securing a decisive victory of his own.
The No. 5 overall draft pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, India had actually seen his prospect stock slide a bit coming into the 2021 season, as he’d dropped off the majority of Top 100 rankings of note. He apparently didn’t get that memo, however, as the former Florida Gators standout took the second base job in Cincinnati and ran with it.
The Reds deserve some credit for sticking with India early on, as he scuffled through a rough first month of the season, hitting just .239/.316/.358 in April. He improved those numbers across the board in May but still checked in below the league average in terms of overall offensive output. With a couple months of big league reps under his belt, however, India found his stride and never looked back.
India slashed .303/.425/.455 in the month of June and was considerably above the league average with the bat in each of the season’s three subsequent months. From June 1 through season’s end, India raked at a .281/.390/.493 pace with a huge 11.9% walk rate and a 22.5% strikeout rate. On the whole, he ended the year with a hearty .269/.376/.459 batting line, adding in 21 home runs, 34 doubles, two triples and a dozen steals (in 15 tries). With the glove, both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating pegged him as average at second base. Statcast’s Outs Above Average was much more bearish, grading him at minus-7, but both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs alike graded him out at 3.9 Wins Above Replacement. Cincinnati can now control India through 2026.
Arozarena, 26, burst onto the scene with one of the most impressive postseason showings in recent memory during the Rays’ 2020 World Series run and retained his rookie eligibility into 2021. While he didn’t dominate at quite those same levels this season, the former Cardinals farmhand turned in a robust .274/.356/.459 batting line with 20 home runs, 32 doubles, three triples and 20 steals (in 30 tries) through 604 plate appearances. Baseball-Reference valued him at 4.1 wins above replacement, while FanGraphs pegged him at 3.3.
Acquired alongside Jose Martinez in the trade that sent top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis, Arozarena has cemented himself as an everyday outfielder and a building block in the Tampa Bay lineup for the next few seasons. In addition to his strong blend of power and speed at the plate, Arozarena drew positive defensive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (1). Like India, he can be controlled all the way through the 2026 season.
India, Rogers and Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson took home the overwhelming majority of votes in National League balloting. Also receiving some stray third-place votes were Cubs infielders Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel; Braves right-hander Ian Anderson; Pirates closer David Bednar; and India’s teammates Tyler Stephenson and Vladimir Gutierrez.
In the American League, it was Astros right-hander Luis Garcia taking second place on the strength of two first-place votes and 15 second-place votes. Arozarena’s teammate, Wander Franco, finished third place and garnered a pair of first-place votes. Rangers center fielder Adolis Garcia received three first-place votes but landed fourth overall, while Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase received the other first-place vote. Ryan Mountcastle of the Orioles, Shane McClanahan of the Rays and Alek Manoah of the Blue Jays all landed some second- and/or third-place votes as well.
A full breakdown of the National League voting and full breakdown of American League voting are available at the BBWAA’s web site.
Braves Sign Manny Pina
The Braves announced Monday that they’ve signed veteran catcher Manny Pina to a two-year contract worth $8MM. (Atlanta is one of the few organizations that publicly discloses financial terms.) Pina will earn $3.5MM in 2022 and $4.5MM in 2023. The contract also has a $4MM club option for the 2024 season, which does not come with a buyout. Pina is a client of Rep 1 Baseball.
It’s at least a moderate surprise to see Atlanta ink another catcher. The Braves already extended veteran Travis d’Arnaud on a two-year, $16MM contract late in the season, giving them a veteran option to provide a bridge to up-and-coming prospects William Contreras and Shea Langeliers. With Pina now on board, both Contreras and Langeliers have veteran roadblocks in their way on the big league roster.
Langeliers, who has just five games of Triple-A ball under his belt, likely wouldn’t have been an option until late in the 2022 season at the very earliest anyhow, but Contreras has already gotten his feet wet in the Major Leagues and seemed to be a candidate to break camp with the team behind d’Arnaud next year. The addition of Pina, on a two-year deal no less, makes that alignment unlikely anytime in the near future — unless the Braves opt to carry three catchers on the roster (which seems possible with the likely addition of a designated hitter in the National League). The added organizational depth, however, protects the Braves in the event of another injury to d’Arnaud and also frees the front office to at least be more open to trade scenarios involving their young backstops this winter.
In Pina, Atlanta is adding a well-regarded defensive catcher who has some pop in his bat but struggled to hit for average this past season, albeit due to a fluky low .162 average on balls in play. The 34-year-old Pina (35 next June) hit .189/.293/.439 with a career-high 13 home runs in 208 plate appearances this past season. Since establishing himself as the backup catcher with the Brewers back in 2016, he’s given Milwaukee 1209 plate appearances of .245/.314/.415 offense.
With the glove, Pina has been credited with a whopping 38 Defensive Runs Saved through just 2407 innings over the six-year run with the Brew Crew. He consistently draws plus framing marks and boasts a massive 35% caught-stealing rate, which is well north of the league average of 28% over the course of his MLB career.
Pina’s $3.5MM salary next season brings the Braves to $80.5MM in guaranteed contracts to seven players, plus a projected slate of $49.9MM in arbitration salaries, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Of course, that number doesn’t include franchise icon Freddie Freeman, who has been extended an $18.4MM qualifying offer he’s sure to reject. Freeman is a free agent for the first time in his illustrious career, but the Braves figure to make a strong push to retain him even after he fields interest from other clubs around the league.
This past season’s $131.4MM Opening Day payroll was a franchise record, but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has already indicated that ownership will increase that figure for the 2022 season.
Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.
Yankees Name Luis Rojas Third Base Coach
The Yankees have hired former Mets skipper Luis Rojas to serve as their third base coach for the 2022 season, per a club announcement. He’ll take the place of Phil Nevin, whom the Yankees dismissed following the season.
Rojas, 40, served as the Mets’ manager for the past two seasons. He’d been serving as a quality control coach after more than a decade coaching and managing in the Mets’ minor league system but was unexpectedly elevated to the manager’s chair when the Mets moved on from Carlos Beltran following the revelation of his involvement in orchestrating the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal.
The Mets were 103-119 under Rojas’ watch, fading down the stretch this past season after spending much of the year in contention for a division crown. Injuries played a large role in that decline, with Jacob deGrom‘s absence looming particularly large, but the Mets nevertheless elected to decline a third-year option on Rojas, making him free to join a new organization for the first time in 16 years.
Rojas interviewed for the Padres’ managerial vacancy but was passed over when longtime A’s skipper Bob Melvin was surprisingly made available to them. He reportedly interviewed with the Yankees last week and, clearly, made a strong impression when doing so.
In Rojas, the Yankees will be adding a bilingual coach with managing experience and plenty of experience working with the Mets’ analysts and players alike. Rojas is a former minor league manager of the year who wore a variety of hats throughout his 16-year run in the Mets organization. He’s also a member of a legendary baseball fan, as the son of three-time MLB All-Star and 1994 NL Manager of the Year Felipe Alou and the half brother of six-time All-Star Moises Alou.
Several High-End Free Agents Could Sign Before CBA Expires
The 2021-22 offseason is unlike any we’ve seen in recent history, with players and teams somewhat flying blind as the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement looms at 11:59pm ET on Dec. 1. Because of the widely expected lockout and uncertainty as to what changes will be made to key economic facets of Major League Baseball — the luxury tax, the arbitration system, the potential implementation of a salary floor — there’s been fairly prevalent speculation that the majority of major free-agent dealings would only occur after a lockout has been resolved.
That’s not necessarily the case, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his takeaway column from this week’s GM Meetings in California. To the contrary, there’s a sense that top free agents Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and a few prominent starting pitchers could come off the board while the current CBA is still in play. Similarly, some in the industry expect that at least some of the offseason’s most aggressive teams (e.g. Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays) could be highly active in the days and hours leading up to the current agreement’s expiration, per Passan.
To some extent, it’s only logical to see the markets for certain top-of-the-scale free agents crystallize more quickly than others. Seager is one of the top two names on the market, while Semien is coming off the best season of any of the “second tier” of shortstops — those expected to sign north of $100MM but well beneath the likely $300MM+ price range of Seager and Carlos Correa.
Demand figures to be robust for both Seager and Semien. And, with likely interest from teams that won’t have immediate luxury-tax concerns regardless of who they sign, thanks to fairly wide-open payroll outlays, not every interested team will be overly concerned with waiting to see how the luxury tax unfolds. A lack of luxury-tax concern among Texas, Detroit, Seattle and Toronto surely dovetails with expectations that they could act more quickly than, say, the Yankees or Dodgers — both of whom will be keenly interested in the particulars of a restructured competitive balance tax.
Both Seager and Semien are of interest to the Yankees, Passan reemphasizes, though that much is well known by this point. Yankees GM Brian Cashman effectively kicked off the team’s offseason by announcing his desire to improve at shortstop, and it’d frankly be more surprising to learn that the Yanks were “out” on any one of the top free-agent shortstops than to hear they’re still in the mix.
There’s certainly no guarantee that either Seager or Semien will sign prior to Dec. 1, but it’s also in many ways sensible for both teams and players to want to strike early. Assuming there is indeed a lockout, MLB free agency would resume at a rather frenzied pace. There’d be obvious benefit to teams having cost certainty and avoiding some of that chaos by checking a big-ticket item off the list early in the process. From the players’ vantage point, there has to be concern about getting lost in the shuffle — particularly among second- or third-tier names. Furthermore, as is the case every winter, free agents tend to prefer the certainty of knowing where they (and their families) will be for the foreseeable future.
Even from an agency standpoint, early deals make some sense, if the demand is sufficient enough to drum up a palatable offer. For instance, the Boras Corporation represents both Seager and Semien, but they’ll also be negotiating deals for Max Scherzer, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Yusei Kikuchi and James Paxton, among others. It’s a lot to juggle in what would be a condensed free-agent period, post-lockout. It’s easy to see the appeal of an early contract or two for any agency with a lengthy client list this winter.
To this point, there’s been little in the way of actual activity, save for a trio of one-year deals for Andrew Heaney (Dodgers), T.J. McFarland (Cardinals) and Joely Rodriguez (Yankees). Teams and agencies acting with a bit of increased urgency, however, carries the potential for a perhaps brief flurry of deals in the next three weeks, even if the prevailing wisdom is that the majority of the offseason’s heavy lifting will come in the wake of, and not in advance of, a lockout and subsequent transaction freeze.
Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins
The 2019-20 AL Central champs faceplanted in a 2021 season that was disastrous enough for the Twins to trade away longtime top starter Jose Berrios. Owner Jim Pohlad has made clear that the Twins will not go into a rebuild, so president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will be looking for immediate help to remedy the roster.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Josh Donaldson, 3B: $50MM through 2023 (includes $8MM buyout of $16MM 2024 club option)
- Max Kepler, OF: $16.25MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM 2024 club option)
- Jorge Polanco, 2B/SS: $12.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM 2024 club option; contract also contains $12MM 2025 club option)
- Miguel Sano, 1B/DH: $12MM through 2022 (includes $2.75MM buyout of $14MM 2023 club option)
- Randy Dobnak, RHP: $8.55MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM 2026 club option)
- Kenta Maeda, RHP: $6MM through 2023
- Total 2022 commitment: $45.8MM
- Total long-term commitment: $105.3MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Byron Buxton – $7.3MM
- Taylor Rogers – $6.7MM
- Tyler Duffey – $3.7MM
- Mitch Garver – $3.1MM
- Caleb Thielbar – $1.2MM
- Jake Cave – $1.1MM
- Danny Coulombe – $800K
- Willians Astudillo – $1.2MM
- Juan Minaya – $1.1MM
- Luis Arraez – $2.0MM
- Non-tender candidates: Cave, Coulombe, Astudillo, Minaya
Option Decisions
- Alex Colome, RHP: Twins declined their end of a $5.5MM mutual option (paid $1.25MM buyout)
Free Agents
- Michael Pineda, Andrelton Simmons, Nick Vincent*, Kyle Barraclough*, Luke Farrell*, Ian Gibaut*, Andrew Albers*, John Gant*, Rob Refsnyder* (*=outrighted and elected free agency after the season ended)
Very little went right for the Twins in 2021. Byron Buxton looked like an MVP candidate when healthy but played just 67 games thanks to a hip flexor strain and broken hand. The 2020 Cy Young runner-up, Kenta Maeda, pitched through hip and elbow troubles before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Mitch Garver, Michael Pineda and Max Kepler all had lengthy IL stays. Top prospect Royce Lewis tore his ACL before the season began. The similarly touted Alex Kirilloff tried to play through a torn ligament in his wrist before he, too, went under the knife. There was a team-wide Covid outbreak in late April. Nearly every free-agent pickup — J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Colome — fell well short of expectations. Things snowballed quickly.
The end result was not only a 73-89 record but also a deadline sell-off that few would’ve expected on Opening Day. Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz, Hansel Robles and Happ were shipped out for younger players — a series of trades that netted the Twins a trio of prospects who are all featured on at least one prominent Top 100 ranking. Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Joe Ryan are now among the team’s top farmhands, and Ryan has already gotten his feet wet in the Majors.
That series of trades and a few free-agent departures leaves the Twins with quite a few holes on the big league roster. Based on the previously mentioned no-rebuild stance from ownership, it seems likely the Twins will seek to fill those holes this winter rather than completely tear down a roster that recently won a pair of division titles.
That does not, however, preclude the Twins from making further subtractions from the current group. Among the team’s prominent trade candidates are the aforementioned Buxton, Kepler, Garver and perhaps younger backstop Ryan Jeffers. Josh Donaldson’s name came up at the trade deadline and could do so again this winter.
The Twins and Buxton’s reps at Jet Sports discussed an extension this summer but were unable to come to terms on a deal. Reports indicated that Minnesota had been willing to commit $80MM over a seven-year term — a baseline framework amenable to both sides. However, Buxton’s camp sought a richer package of incentives in the event that the ultra-talented but oft-injured center fielder began to show more durability.
The Twins and Buxton figure to rekindle extension talks this winter, and Buxton’s case can only be buoyed by the fact that he closed out the season with a .314/.375/.686 slash in his final 112 plate appearances after returning from that ill-timed hand fracture. If the two parties can’t find a middle ground, it’s plenty feasible that the Twins will field offers on one of the more dynamic talents in the game.
In many ways, the difficulties in finding a common ground during extension talks would be mirrored in theoretical trade talks. Other clubs, particularly those seeking defensive upgrades, would relish the opportunity to install Buxton in center field. At the same time, he’s a free agent next winter, and his ongoing injury troubles will make teams wary of parting with too much in a potential trade. Buxton’s prodigious talent and repeated IL stints present the Twins with something of a conundrum, regardless of which path they explore.
Elsewhere on the roster, the Twins could look to capitalize on affordable control and organizational depth. Kepler’s huge 2019 season looks like an outlier at this point, but he’s a terrific defender in right field who can handle center and has 25- to 30-homer pop. He may not be an All-Star, but his blend of walks, power and defense are appealing even if aggressive shifting and an extreme-pull approach will continue to suppress his batting average. With a healthier Kirilloff, a more-experienced Trevor Larnach and the looming debuts of top prospects Lewis and Martin — both can play shortstop and center field — the Twins have some depth to explore outfield trades.
Behind the plate, both Garver and Jeffers have appeal as starting-caliber options. Garver has been one of the game’s most productive offensive catchers since his 2019 breakout (combined .254/.348/.546 slash, 135 wRC+). Jeffers entered the 2021 season as a Top 100 prospect, and while he didn’t hit like he did in his brief 2020 call to the Majors, he’s a strong defender with plenty of pop and untapped potential at the plate. He’s also 24 years old and under club control another five seasons. Garver is controlled through 2023. There’s room for both on the roster, particularly if Garver can spend some additional time at DH. Still, catching-needy clubs with pitching to spare (e.g. the Marlins) will surely be checking in with the Twins.
However the Twins proceed on the trade market, they’ll likely focus on young pitching in return. The trade of Berrios, the injury to Maeda and the potential free-agent departure of Michael Pineda leave the rotation in a threadbare state. Joe Ryan, acquired from the Rays in the Cruz trade, ranks as Baseball America’s No. 91 prospect and posted a 4.05 ERA with a 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 frames down the stretch. (Ryan also won a Silver Medal with Team USA in this year’s Olympics.) Rookie Bailey Ober had a quietly strong showing, rounding into form after a rough start (3.59 ERA, 20.9 K-BB% through 67 2/3 innings from July 1 onward).
Beyond that pair of promising youngsters, there’s no certainty. That’s in large part due to the fact that the Twins’ injury troubles extended to the upper echelon of their pitching prospects, too. Each of Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino and Josh Winder missed time due to injury, as did fifth starter/swingman Randy Dobnak. The club will hope to extract some quality innings from that group, and perhaps Woods Richardson, in 2022.
The lack of current rotation pieces, however, will push the Twins to not only target controllable young arms in trade but also some veterans to plug right into the mix. The offseason trade market will include the likes of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray — any of whom could appeal to Minnesota. (Castillo and Gray, in particular, have multiple seasons of control remaining.) The Twins also have the means to be active in free agency; it’s just a question of the extent to which they’ll spend.
First and foremost, coming off a disastrous season, the Twins aren’t likely to appeal to a Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander type — an older, high-end free agent seeking to jump right into an obvious contender’s rotation. It’s true that we’ve never seen the Twins sign a free agent for more than Ervin Santana‘s four-year, $55MM contract back in 2014, but Minnesota has made $100MM+ offers to both Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler in the past.
With that in mind, it’s worth taking a quick high-level look at next year’s payroll. Minnesota has just $45.8MM in guaranteed money on the books for 2022. Even after factoring in around $25MM of arbitration salaries and pre-arb players to round out the roster, the Twins will be some $50MM south of their record $129MM payroll. Non-tenders and trades of current players could create further space, but there’s already a good bit of room to spend.
It’d rank as something of an upset if they actually won the bidding on a Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman or Marcus Stroman, but the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to compete for those types of names. They were reportedly very interested in Stroman at the 2019 deadline, when he was traded to the Mets, and they’d be a plausible landing spot for a free-agent arm who’s still relatively young, such as Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion, and other mid-rotation options include Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jon Gray, among many others. The Twins need at least two, if not three options to stabilize the starting staff this winter.
Looking to the relief corps, things are similarly hazy. Taylor Rogers has been one of the game’s best left-handed relievers in recent years, but he ended the season on the injured list with a sprained ligament in his pitching hand. If the Twins are confident he’ll be good to go come Opening Day, a $6.7MM projected salary is plenty affordable. If there’s more doubt about his health, one can imagine they’ll at least debate whether to tender him a contract.
With Colome’s option being declined and uncertainty about Rogers’ health, the Twins will be on the hunt for an arm or two. The current front office regime has only signed one free-agent reliever to a notable multi-year deal — Addison Reed‘s ill-fated two-year, $16.75MM pact — so there’s little chance they’ll play at the top of the market, where Raisel Iglesias should command a three or four-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary. Kendall Graveman, too, could be in position for a three-year pact, but it’s reasonable enough to expect the Twins could be in on just about any other relief arm this winter. History suggests they’re likelier to ink a couple of lower-cost veterans than dole out a hefty two-year deal — perhaps bailing out a reliever whose market didn’t develop as hoped (much like they did with Colome last winter).
Turning to the lineup, the Twins’ bevy of trade possibilities opens the door for any number of free-agent pursuits. They’re a clear fit for a shortstop now that Jorge Polanco has moved to second base and enjoyed a career year there. At the same time, when pitching is such a dire need, it’s worth wondering whether the best use of resources would be to plop down a nine-figure guarantee to one of the market’s top-end shortstops. Minnesota did have interest in Marcus Semien last winter, but there’s a difference between pursuing him as a potential bargain and paying top-of-the-market dollars on a five- or six-year deal this time around.
If Buxton and/or Kepler is moved this winter, the Twins have the payroll space to pivot and bring in a veteran outfielder. Nelson Cruz’s departure could open the door for Minnesota to move Miguel Sano to DH and explore first base options — be it a free agent like Anthony Rizzo or a potential trade candidate such as Luke Voit. Sano himself is a candidate to be shopped, though it’s worth noting that he hit .251/.330/.503 with 21 homers in his final 375 plate appearances. Perhaps it’s just coincidence, but that production began the day after the league’s memo announcing foreign-substance checks for pitchers. It also stands to reason that Minnesota will at least talk to the 40-year-old Cruz about a 2022 return after two and a half very productive years at Target Field.
If all of that seems rather ambiguous, it’s largely a reflection of the nature of the Twins’ current roster. While some of their division rivals have more straightforward paths this winter — the Royals will focus on bullpen help to supplement a young core; the Tigers are going to aggressively pursue a shortstop and a starting pitcher — the Twins are in a different spot. The core that emerged from their last rebuilding process is beginning to turn over, but the farm system is strong enough and the payroll clean enough that another multi-year rebuilding effort doesn’t seem necessary.
Acquiring pitching is likely to be a focal point, but the open-ended nature of the Twins’ lineup gives Falvey, Levine and the rest of the front office the ability to get creative in building out the roster. A straightforward pursuit of rotation help could result in signing multiple veteran free agents, but the Twins could also focus on the trade market for their starting pitching needs and surprise as a landing spot for someone like Rizzo or Trevor Story. Buxton could be traded for even more controllable young talent or signed to serve as a franchise centerpiece in spite of durability concerns. The Twins don’t have to trade Kepler or have to trade a catcher, but other teams will inquire. The possibilities here are much more plentiful than with most clubs, and the reality is that the front office can’t even know for certain how it’ll play out.
It all makes for a fairly fascinating offseason in Minnesota. As was the case with the 2021 trade deadline, Minnesota will be heavily involved in a broad-reaching number of storylines. The Twins might blur the lines between “buyer” and “seller” this offseason, but whatever shape their winter takes, they’ll be active.