1:15pm: The teams have announced the trade.
11:45am: In an ultra-rare swap between AL East rivals, the Yankees have reportedly traded right-hander Adam Ottavino to the Red Sox in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. Boston will receive Ottavino and minor league right-hander Frank German from the Yankees in a move that amounts to a salary dump for the Yanks and the purchase of pitching prospect and a bullpen rebound candidate for the Red Sox.
After acquiring Jameson Taillon from the Pirates and agreeing to terms with DJ LeMahieu and Corey Kluber, the Yankees found themselves with roughly one million dollars separating them from the tax threshold, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. Ottavino came with a $9MM luxury hit by virtue of the three-year, $27MM free-agent deal he signed two years ago, and the Yankees will now shave the bulk of that sum from their luxury obligations. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that they’re sending $850K to the Red Sox as part of the deal, so the Yankees are freeing up $8.15MM of luxury breathing room.
That space will prove vital, given ownership’s apparent mandate that the front office stay under the tax threshold. The Yankees have recently spoken to Brett Gardner’s camp about a reunion, and the club could yet be in the hunt for affordable rotation depth even after adding Kluber and Taillon. Both are coming off injury-ruined 2020 seasons, after all, and the rest of the team’s rotation comes with similar workload concerns.
The trade between the two teams is the first in six and a half years, when they swapped Stephen Drew and Kelly Johnson in 2014. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand points out that this is only the second trade that Yankees GM Brian Cashman has ever made with his organization’s top rival.
While finances are the clear driving factor in this trade, it’s unlikely the Yankees would’ve made the move had Ottavino not struggled through a dismal showing in last year’s shortened season. The 35-year-old appeared in 24 games but totaled just 18 1/3 innings of work, yielding a dozen runs on 20 hits and nine walks with 25 punchouts in that time. Ottavino’s 5.89 ERA was his highest since debuting as a rookie with the Cardinals back in 2010, although fielding-independent metrics were more bullish on his work (3.52 FIP, 3.62 SIERA).
Control has never been a strong point for Ottavino, but he dropped his walk rate from 13.8 percent in 2017-19 to 10.6 percent last year. It’s easy to call his ERA a result of a sky-high .375 average on ball in play, but Ottavino’s struggles appeared to be more than a function of simple bad luck. In spite of his improved control, the right-hander’s strikeout rate dipped a bit (31.5 percent to 29.4 percent), and Ottavino yielded hard contact at a career-high rate (90.6 mph average exit velocity; 50 percent hard-hit rate). Ottavino was a high-quality reliever as recently as 2018-19 between the Rockies and Yankees, however, when he logged a combined 2.19 ERA and 33.8 percent strikeout rate through 144 innings of work.
Boston surely hopes that Ottavino will return to form, but the Sox are also using available payroll flexibility to add a pitcher who isn’t viewed as being too far from MLB-ready. The 23-year-old German was a fourth-round pick out of college and a late riser on draft boards in 2018, as Eric Longenhagen wrote last year at FanGraphs. German added muscle to a projectable frame between his junior and senior years of college and saw his velocity spike late in the 2018 NCAA season. He’s continued to add velocity in pro ball, per Longenhagen, though there are concerns about his secondary offerings. MLB.com previously ranked German 24th among Yankees prospects, so he’ll settle somewhere into the middle tiers of the Red Sox’ rankings now.
In many ways underscores, this unexpected trade speaks to how both clubs view Boston’s chances of competing in 2021. If the Red Sox genuinely expected to compete for a division title, would they help the Yankees by giving them further payroll space to operate underneath the tax threshold? And if the Yankees viewed the Red Sox as a threat, would they risk sending a talented reliever — albeit one in need of a rebound — to their nemesis? The optics of a revitalized Ottavino playing a key role in a Red Sox bullpen that marches to the postseason would be brutal for the Yankees.
That’s not to write off the Red Sox entirely, of course. There’s still a very talented core group of players in Boston, but the team’s chances of contending in 2021 are largely dependent on a number of unknown elements breaking their way. The Sox don’t yet know how Chris Sale will look in his return from Tommy John surgery, for instance, nor are they certain what they can expect from Eduardo Rodriguez after he missed the 2020 season due to Covid-19 and a subsequent myocarditis diagnosis. Key lineup pieces like J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi are in search of their own rebounds after downturns in 2020, and the Sox lack proven options at first base, in the back of the rotation and the back of the bullpen. Ottavino merely adds another question mark to that lengthy list.
Lindsey Adler of The Athletic first reported (via Twitter) that Ottavino had been traded to Boston. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman added details on the other elements of the swap.
The Curse of the Ottavino
“I would strike Babe Ruth out every time”.
Well, Ruth would be 125 years old. So if he was still alive, this batspeed should have slowed a bit. I think Ottavino could do it.
It is a semi-true story. They asked Ty Cobb about how he would do against ‘today’s pitchers, When he responded that he’d hit about .300, one of the writers asked ‘but you’re a .366 hitter’. To which Cobb responded ‘yeah, but I am 50 year’s old’.
Actually Cobb was 73 when he made that statement
…and he said he’d hit .270
Cobb wouldn’t even make the bigs. It’s a different time now. No more 85 mph fastballs.
You’re out of your mind. Hitting is hand eye coordination and mental agility. Cobb could absolutely hit in any era.
False ty cobb didnt wasnt facing starters who pumped fastballs in the upper 90s with a 88 mph slider
That is up there with the Charles Barkley ‘How would this Dream Team do against the original Dream Team?’ Barkley said they would beat us. We are all old and fat now so we wouldn’t have much of a chance.
Wrong. Jeez, guys, where’s the baseball literacy? Lefty O’Doul told that joke in Lawrence Ritter;s “The Glory of Their Times,” and he had used it for years. Ty Cobb didn’t joke.
JoeBrady – the idea of quoting someone involves looking up what they actually said!!! hahaha Now you understand why nobody takes much stock in your opinions. There is no basis for them except what’s going on in your head. How scary is that!!! hahaha
As I always suggest to you. Do the homework then write, don’t just make up stuff to impress people.
Right handed
A few threads back, you posted:
KD171 day ago
Let’s start at 60 Wins and figure out which of the better teams the Red Sox might be able to beat. 70 wins is aggressive. 80 is pure fandom.
=========================================================================
So I suggest a friendly wager. If 80 is pure fandom, I will take 81 and above. If I am right, then after the regular season, then you sign off for the rest of the calendar. If they win 80 or less, then you are right, I will sign off for the rest of the year.
Any interest?
Anything written by Al Stump is mostly fabricated. Ty Cobb was a smart man but how he ended up with Stump and what Stump did to Cobb’s name is reprehensible.
He would…. you really think Ruth would be good rn?
Ruth would dominate in any era
Do you really think the hitters of the past didn’t tune their game to the pitchers of the time? Do you really think the phenomenal hitters wouldn’t adapt? If so, you are sadly mistaken. It’s like saying Tony Gwynn wouldn’t hit today because the average fastball when he played ranged from 87 to 88 (when he retired in 2001) Come on man.
Every hitter and every pitcher in baseball will tell you pitch speed is something hitters can learn to time. It’s variation and movement. Mike Foltynewicz was in the top 5 in average fastball velocity for three years running, but because his fastball flattened out and hitters could foul it off, he could not get them out. They just waited until they timed a fat one up and hit it hard. I think many of those dominant hitters back then might be even better against these pitchers who just rely on speed.
I would accept that players from the past might have to change their swings, accelerate their hands, use smaller bats, etc., but in the reverse, if they played today they would have coaches galore, recorded AB’s to review, tightly wound balls, smaller stadiums, smaller strike zones, managed nutrition and fitness programs, etc, etc, etc.
That is true. But some people could dominate 85 but never hit 95. That’s just the truth of the matter. I thin Ruth would fall into that category.
It’s “just the truth of the matter” because you say it is? Quite the reasoning. I agree with UGA, the best hitters of any era would do just fine vs a 95 mph FB. Heck, today’s average hitters have no problem with a 95 mph FB.
As for Ty Cobb not even making it out of the minors in today’s game … pffft.
Babe Ruth is not hitting 97…. old heads can’t face facts.
And some people who gear up for a 95 fastballl are made to
Look silly at the plate facing the Big Sexy who didnt blow people away with speed but with pitch movement at the age of 40 plus.
Ans Ruth used a hickory bat 36-38 ounces. If he switched to a smaller matchstick bat, he’d catchup to anything. Sorry MetsFan22, but you can’t tell any of these batters today ti awing what he swung and hit anything, even an 85 moh pitch. You shoudl visit Copersrown and learn a little but about the game.
Sorry, Cooperstown.
I smell desperation. Sounds like a salary dump.
And I remember people saying that the Yankees couldn’t get rid of Ottovino without covering three quarters of his salary.
What would be the curse to the Yankees? That Ottovino becomes a good closer for 3 more years while the Sox suck and the Yankees struggle to win only 2 World Series every decade for 100 years instead of 3-4? OoOoOOoo spooky!
The ‘curse’ in reverse. I thought it was clever. It also gave me my first big laugh of the day, so there’s that.
Anyway can be given away if you give away prospects with them.
Spot on, And as a RS fan I don’t see how they agreed to take on $8.15M in salary, unless the true value is in Frank German…
For the frugal Bloom to spend $ like that is a shock. In his previous life that would be what they paid their #1 starter…lol
I’m certain I was one of those, @Joe.
I cannot believe it. Man, I’d like to see Cash turn around & put that little windfall right back into the pen.
That’ll cover a decent lefty & a good 7th inning option. I wonder if Cashman is playing chicken with Hal over payroll.
Every team needs a little headroom to be able to stay under the tax all year. I don’t see the Yankees redeploying this money until the trade deadline, if then.
@Ted etal
Bloom still being tight fisted. He took Ottovino to get the 4th rounder who is not all that far from the show and will trade Ottovino ASAP so net cost is actually pretty low so long as Ottovino doesn’t totally suck which is no guarantee :)
AO was simply overused his first year in NY. The Yankees needed financial flexibility. I don’t know much about the kid Boston also got back. My guess is he’s a project with a little upside and the Sox are in a win win situation. It’s only one year of AO and the team can afford it. By taking on the salary they added more minor league depth.
Except for Gardy who they will sign soon
I think it’s been a over a decade since they won a single world series…
Been more than a decade since they won their last, bruh. And only one in the 21st century to four for the Sox. Just sayin’.
Did you smell that?? The article calls it a salary dump! The Yankees have bullpen arms on minor league deals that can’t be trusted late in a game. No reason to keep him and every reason to dump his salary.
Sox finally address their bullpen. Love it
He’s a ton better than what they have but O is not lights out.
Ottavino is a good bounce back candidate. He is in the last year of his contract pitching for his next contract.
When was the last time these 2 completed a trade together?
Possibly Alfredo Aceves
Stephen Drew
Jk the Stephen Drew deal was before Aceves
Stephen Drew right?
Best trade from a Sox perspective was spring training, 1986, Don Baylor for the original Hitman (sorry Mattingly fans), Mike Easley.
Easler.
Third time was the charm…
Aceves signed with Boston as a free agent. Later he rejoined the Yankees, but also as a free agent.
They did on about a century ago. Some random pitcher for cash.
Stephen Drew for Kelly Johnson, 2014.
This is just their 5th trade since 1986.
I’m sure there’s been a minor trade or two, but I can’t remember the last time a name player was traded.
SS Stephen Drew?
In 2015 the Red Sox traded Kelly Johnson to New York at the trade deadline
Sorry it was 2014 actually and it was Johnson to Boston for Stephen Drew
And one month later, Boston traded Johnson to Baltimore, thus completing Kelly Johnson’s tour of the American League East,
In 2015, Kelly Johnson went to the Mets…
2014 Kelly Johnson for Steven Drew… before that 1997
Yes! 1997 NYY got Mike Stanley back. He got an RBI in the playoffs by getting an HBP with the bases loaded…
Steven drew
I think Drew and Johnson. Could be wrong
The article said seven tears ago
Most people that comment don’t read the article. Just the headline.
The article was updated to include it after the comment.
I was thinking exact same thing. I assumed they never even called each other but I suppose as the author suggests it does seem to infer Red Sox are not seen as equals in this division that has the Blue Jays all in and a defending AL Champion Tampa team. I just wonder if Red Sox were in a diff division they would be seen as a possible sneaky team, if the pitching staff overperforms and Sale comes back like Sale we know. I will say I like how baseball doesn’t have blatant tanking like the NBA.
Im curious how many people actually read the articles before they come to grace us……
Sub 50% ?…. Ill go 38%…. I mean look at all this responses that Still dont even know the answer to the Op Q!!!
Sometimes all the information isn’t in the article at first. I don’t know if that was the case for this article but I know that’s been the case for some. Most people read the articles I think.
Ouch.poor Otto. He’s a life-long Yankees fan and not only do we trade him…but we trade him to the Sawx. That was just mean Brian Cashman.
Otto played his college ball in Boston at Northeastern, so he’s at least familiar with the area. And it was during that time that he went from being a 30th round pick of Tampa (unsigned) to being a Cardinal 1st round selection.
Sorry I am lagging cuz it’s BBC so true. But he’ll help the Redsox bullpen if he can stop crying long enuff.
Have you seen his Twitter feed?
I wonder if Ottavino is still a Yankee fan???
Yanks gotta pay for the plane ride also?
Greyhound!
He may choke to death getting the news.
This is one messed up offseason. FA George Springer wanted to play for his beloved Red Sox but they weren’t ‘buying’ it despite a clear need for a CF so he ‘settled’ for the rival Blue Jays. Now lifelong Yankee fan Adam Ottavino gets traded to the hated Red Sox.
I liked it better last winter when Yankee fan Gerrit Cole signed with his favorite team and Jose Abreu re-upped with every Cubans preferred club on the southside of Chicago.
Teams cannot sign every player who grew up a fan. The Red Sox and Yankees would have 100 players each while the Marlins would barely be able to field a team.
That said, if players really want to play for they’re “beloved” team then they agree to sign for little to no money to make that happen.
On a side note: Garrett Richards, Kike Hernandez, and now Ottavino combined cost what the Blue Jays are paying Springer per year
Well this was unexpected
*facepalm* any other team, why the Red Sox…
Agreed. Apart from all the asinine talk in this thread about Ruth, Cobb, Drew, Kelly Johnson, blah blah blah, this was a stupid move by the Yankees. Just to get under some “salary cap” to sign the AAAA player Bret Gardner AGAIN??? We have more than enough outfielders and do NOT need the VERY average Gardner stinking things up again. I’d rather have Ottavino.
The Red Sox made a trade with the Yankees……IMPOSSIBLE
The O must go on!
So they cash dump a quality reliever to their hated rival?
I’m cool with it lol thanks Cash
This is such a ridiculous trade!
If we just dealt this guy to open spade for Gardy, that’s about the dumbest idea imagineable. And we give them a prospect??? You gotta be kidding me.
We need an older, generally insiginficant OF more than bullpen depth???
Agreed. I don’t like this trade at all. Otto IMO was awful last year, but excellent the year before. I think he’ll bounce back in 21.
He wasn’t quality last season.
And last season was 60 games.
Neither were the last two MVP in the NL. Neither were 4 of the top 10 in ERA or the #1 in WAR for pitchers in 2019. 2020 was so far from normal in preparation and playing games that nearly half of all players had a season 25% better or worse than their career average. It was just weird.
Yes, and now they’re short Kahnle and Ottavino, and it appears they’re going to re-sign Gardner instead of getting at least one quality reliever. This off-season sucks.
There are about a million relievers on the market. I’d bet the Yanks grab at least one.
FA market sucked! We signed the best player available (DJLM) and now we get under the thresh hold for luxury tax and get ready to be big players next offseason when the FA class may be the best ever.
YOOOO
I imagine I might be saying “good trade Bloom” here soon.
Wait! What? Red Sox and Yanks trade? 2021 are you ok?
What?!! These two teams don’t trade. Plus, Ottavino is a right killer and the Yankees are stacked with righty bats.
Besides being in same division they are both usually buyers, so hard to come together on a trade.
Is it April 1st? Yanks and red Sox making a trade, huhhhhhhh?
Now he is gonna chase the Yankees down and beat them every change he has….ha
He’s had trouble beating anybody lately…….ha
Very strange indeed that these two conduct a trade between one another.
Indeed. Very strange.
Got some salary relief to sign Brett Gardner now.
Redsox got a prospect and some bullpen depth.
I was going to say in the Gardner thread that if the Yankees are talking to Gardner then they probably are close to trading Ottavino. I just didn’t expect within the division and to the Red Sox.
So how do you feel about the Yankee’s pen now that it’s short Kahnle and Ottavino?
I rarely worry about the Yankees constructing bullpens and haven’t for 25 years.
Ottavino was the expected move to free up salary space. They’ll add in their 4th OFer and likely will tap into relievers available, who won’t be that costly. I’m not concerned with replacing Otto; I’m more concerned that the Yankees gave the Red Sox a weapon they can use against all their righty batters.
A $1 or $2MM reliever is not going to replace Ottavino and Kahnle.
Red Sox are not a threat this year. Otto won’t change that.
Careful what you predict for. With a little bit of luck (okay, a fair amount of luck), Boston could be a competitive ball club this year. They need a lot out of E-Rod, Houck & Pivetta for this to happen but it’s not out of the question. Garrett Richards was a nice pickup as well and you can a do lot worse than Martin Perez as your #5 or #6 starter. With the addition of Ottavino, their bullpen gets much stronger. One more addition to the bullpen and the Sox are done for the offseason (unless they trade Benny). Boston should win between 82-90 games this season if things fall into place correctly.
Ummmm, no they will not have a winning record
The Sox were 24-36 last year, a .400 winning percentage (roughly 65 wins in 162)
They had a 1.60 WHIP, 5.58 ERA and 5.19 FIP
What pitchers did they add? Matt Andriese, Garrett Richards and Adam Ottavino
Andriese is a replacement-level player (averages less than 0.2 WAR per year)
Richards hasn’t pitched more than 77 innings since 2015 (he has averaged less than 0.5 WAR since 2015)
Ottavaino is 36 (!!) and the Yankees gave the Red Sox a prospect just to take him away because he is overpriced and was horrid in 2020
Eovaldi is always hurt (he has averaged less than 0.2 WAR since 2015)
Sale might not pitch until August (or not at all in 2021)
Erod just missed the entire season
And you think that they will finish with 82-90 wins?
They are more likely to win 60 games than 90 games
They have no shot at the playoffs and will likely have a top 8-10 pick in 2022
Yankees need Ottavino a lot more than they need Gardner. I don’t like this trade at all.
I hope they don’t use all this space to sign him.
Red Sox helping the Yankees go under the luxury tax now I’ve seen it all
That is the sad part….if you are going to do it, at least do it with a better performer…maybe even Britton…..Bloom is playing risky cards these days….
Don’t understand the Red Sox helping out a division rival stay under the tax threshold.
Maybe they really like the prospect they’re getting in return.
Edit: saw the return and no, I got nothing.
Two possibilities: they like the pitching prospect and/or they’re hoping for him to rebound and then deal him at the deadline.
Or both.
Both
Wouldn’t have happened if Sox didn’t have a screaming need in the bullpen. Even so they still wouldn’t have done it without the inclusion of the prospect
Wow. I thought they may move him, but to Boston?
He can show everyone how great he is now. Remember, he could strike out Babe Ruth “every time”. Never cared for him after that. Dude thinks he is better than he is (insert statistical analysis showing how I am wrong, I know). Good for Boston, if he can tap into what he used to be–which was still not as legendary as he or his mom thinks.
He’s not a bad prospect. Good K/9 rates and good hit rates too. Just needs to dial in his control a little bit and he could be a useful BP arm in a couple of years. Regardless, they get Ottavino to help this year and pick up a prospect for taking on an $8M salary. Great deal for Boston and it helps the Yankees too.
helping the Yankees distance from lux tax by moving closer to yours. Thank Chaim
Lol saw someone suggest this trade on a recent post and a lot of people were acting like he was crazy and how the Yankees and Red Sox won’t trade
Why do I get the feeling this trade will age poorly for the Yankees. Slider specialist reliever against a strike out heavy right handed line up.
1 guy in Boston’s bullpen doesn’t mean they’re suddenly good. If Yankees struggle against Boston this year, then they don’t deserve to win anything anyway. If healthy, Yankees should win this division by 10+ games.
We have a closer
And the Yankees get……………. in return. ???
Probably the oft-traded PTBNL.
They get luxury tax relief and an open 40-man spot.
space
Wonder who the prospect is. If the Sox are taking on most of the money, I’m hoping they’re at least getting a usable prospect in return. Ottavino is so inconsistent that I wouldn’t want him at that salary.
Frank German
Yeah, they just updated the article. I don’t think that’s enough of a return. Now I’m curious why Boston would do this.
I’m guessing it’s because Chaim Bloom really likes guys with 2 O’s in their last name.
Just a hunch.
German hasn’t had great success yet but he’s not a bad get. This really shows how desperate the Yankees are to get under the luxury tax. Ottavino is deadly against righty batters. That’s all the Yankees have. They literally just traded a player to their rival who will face them in 19 games this season. That was the price they had to pay to clear salary.
Ok, but it’s not like their rival is going to be winning in more than 4 of those games at the time he comes on. The Red Sox have no real rotation to speak of and after losing Mookie, the offense is only decent. The Yankees won this trade.
Frank German, former 4th round puck out of Florida. Nothing earth shattering about this guy.
Otto and two tickets two No No Nanette sealed the deal.
Good move by the Red Sox. I’m surprised the Yankees wouldn’t try and dump him basically anywhere outside of the division. He’s tailor made to shut down that lineup.
“He’s tailor made to shut down that lineup”.
Yes…his 5.89 era is tailor made
Something like 18 of his 24 appearances he didn’t allow a run. The Yankees strike out a lot and he generates them, again, tailor made…
Lots of dudes had weirdly awful years in 2020, for obvious reasons. In 2019 Otto was one of the best relievers in baseball, and in 2018 he was even better, despite pitching in a lefty-hitter’s paradise. His stuff was the same last year and so were his K numbers. Just had a bit of bad luck.
Two of his games accounted for 9 earned runs against him as well. In 22 other games he gave up 3 earned runs. That’s what the short season does. Stats get skewed brutally based on a game or two.
Yes looking at Fangraphs and advanced stats looks like he was unlucky in 2020 in the small sample size looks like a good candidate to bounce back. I guess you could say his fastball and slider were down a tick other then that looks like bad luck in a small sample size. I’m encouraged.
2.19 ERA the last 3 full seasons. 3.52 FIP last season. 19 scoreless appearances. Bad defense and bad luck defined his 2020 season and it was not long enough to overcome the two bad outings against Tampa and Toronto.
Worst one in my Red Sox history is we gave up sparky Lyle for Danny Cater
Wait Yankees and Red Sox made a trade? Trying to pick my jaw up off the floor
Is German the domestic abuse pitcher?
No this is a prospect you are thinking of Domingo German
Ok great I was ready to jump down Blooms throat on that one.
No. That’s the other German. Domingo.
Hal Steinbrenner is the worst thing to ever happen to the Yankees.
CBS says Hi.
Lol
Since CBS sold to George for dirt cheap though, you could say CBS was great for the Yankees. Now we just need Hal to get the hunger his father always had. Hal is smart and I like him, he he can be cheap at times when you consider their revenue.
Agree. Cole Stanton Ellsberry. Reset the tax so they can take on another terrible contract next year.
Go sign Rosenthal and Gardner a hotdog and a beer.
I got hotdog and beer on line 1 I might lock them up before the Yankees do!
I(Update)
It’s Been confirmed! I just got a 2 hotdog deal, with just mustard and an option for another hotdog. While Also enlisting the help of a 6 pack of rolling rock tall boys with incentives for each beer drank. The Yankees and a Mystery team were also interested.
No proverbial bag of chips included in the deal? Hold out, hold out!!
Horrible deal by Cashman
If you though 2020 was a weird year…
Gardy is inevitable now unfortunately. Possibly bring back Robertson or Bentances
Look for the Ottavino candy bar next week at a store near you.. It’s chock full of lots of ingredients you’ve probably never heard of – not one of them very good.
Shouldn’t it be a wine?
Hmm Boston? interesting. I really hope this isn’t to make “room” for Gardy. I just don’t get it, all of our LF are on team friendly contracts or at least control. It makes zero sense to sign a backup for millions to ride the pine. He will be making more than the starting LF. This dude wants to retire a yankee? Then why pay this man more than your starter. Stupid move if that’s the case. I’d rather it go to a bullpen piece to replace Otto. He’s 37 years old give a kid in AAA a shot instead of paying him so much…smh
So you’d prefer to make the Yankees worse?
What? I’m saying it’s dumb to pay a backup more than your starter. If the rumors are valid that the yanks and Gardy want a reunion.
Now this is what would tick me off if I was a Pirate fan.
It woulda been like buying a prospect & hoping that Ottavino would rebound enough to move his remains salary at the deadline for another prospect. If he doesn’t rebound you still would at least have German.
I wouldn’t be too upset. Depends on what the Sox gave up, tho I suspect it was a low-value minor leaguer, in a rough system.
But German was only 24th ranked in a similar (tho not as bad) Yankee system. And he seems to get hurt a lot.
In concept, a good move for any team, but I gotta get a better prospect for taking on 11M. for a reliever who looked last year like he was finished.
Sox give up nothing it’s a negative value trade so the Sox send nothing and get a prospect back
Not really, when you consider the 11M.
Break it down this way. Adam O is worth about 6M, on the hope he can bounce back. So would you pay German 6M coming out of college? I doubt it.
Again, in principle, I have no problem with the deal. But if I’m going eat Adam O’s money (or Endor Inciarte’s or Ian Desmond’s, etc. etc.) I’ve got to get more than a 24th ranked prospect in a short system.
And in reality, both Inciarte and Desmond fit where the Sox are now (no CF, no 1B). But I can’t spend that money on lower tier prospects, on the hope Inciarte and Desmond are motivated by their contract years to at least become replacement level.
He’s not finished. He was very good in almost all of his outings. He had 2 or 3 fluke games that ruined his stats for a short season. Ottavino is very good.
19 scoreless outings. 2 bad outings against the Rays and the Jays. 2 other outings where he gave up 1 run. In a full length season those would have been blips on his way to a 3.50 ERA. In a short season you can’t overcome that to lower your ERA.
I agree Koamalu
BC likes his 40 man. Probably why he didn’t do this.
Rare Red Sox/Yankees trade. Wonder if Ottavino is going to need TJ surgery or something that the Yankees were willing to send him to Boston…
Purely salary relief. The Red Sox were the one team who stepped up to take most of his salary.
Ottavino’s ERA wasn’t pretty but he had one very bad game against the Rays when he was tipping his pitches. Remove it and it was 2.95 all other games.
You didn’t forget about the Blue Jays debacle, did you?
It actually was the Blue Jays game I was thinking of. Both Ottavino and Green gave up 10 runs and got one out.
Not sure what was more humiliating for him from that outing, giving up a grand slam to Danny Jansen or letting Vlad Jr. steal a base off him.
Oh
One of the things I look for in a trade is the motivation for both teams. When Cleveland sent Clevinger to SD, my immediate question was ‘why?’. It wouldn’t make sense, in the middle of a pennant race, to trade your a really good pitcher. OTOH, when team like PT trades their SPs, it is obviously because they are rebuilding, not dumping injury issues.
In this case, the primary motivation for the NYY is to dump salary, so I am less suspicious that Ottavino is injured, though one can never tell.
I agree with Joe. They were discussing moving Otto for awhile and his name was circulating as a trade chip from the very beginning of the offseason. I believe this is salary relief and 40-man clearance for Gardy +.
Is Adam Ottavino really the best improvement the Sox can make to their bullpen with an $8 million investment?
It’s more about buying the prospect than Ottavino himself. German was a top 25 (#24) Yankees prospect according to MLB.com.
This is more about the prospect.
I mean trade Octavino anywhere but not the hated Red Suks!!!
What really happened here was that the Yankees “traded” Ottavino and a prospect to the Red Sox to sign Kluber. It’s cash neutral. We will see if it works out. Don’t be surprised if RS flip Ottavino for prospects at trade deadline.
Let us all rejoice that there’s a thread where Yankee and Red Sox fans can civilly discuss a trade between the two teams. Ok, you can strike civilly.
Do the Red Sox want Joe Kelly back? Please?
I looooove Joe but not as a pitcher. He’s a great person to have your back
Am I missing something here? Generally when there is a trade, players and or money exchange hands both ways. Who or what are the Red Sox sending to the Yankees as part of the trade?
The Yankees are just dumping salary.
JD is right.
The Yankees wanted to clear salary because they still have holes to fill and have no money left (since it looks like the plan is to stay under the $210 million threshold).
So they sent Otto and his $9 million salary (less $850 k) to Boston. To get Boston to agree to this, they also sent a prospect (German) as the enticer. To satisfy MLB trade requirements, they added the language that Boston would send back cash or a player to be named later. It would be a nominal amount of money or a player who Boston plans to waive in the future.
1-Glad to see Bloom doesn’t have any issues trading within the division.With very few exceptions, I always thought that was a silly concept. Ottavino’s salary was getting dumped no matter what, so if this will help us, better for us.
2-I assume that this means Bloom likes Ottavino better than the other low-end RPs available. I was hoping for someone like Melancon or O’Day, at maybe $4M. I guess it depends on whether you believe more in his overrated 2019 numbers, or his underrated 2020 numbers.
3-I will kindly request Mr. Adams to update the RS payroll, I would still like to see Rich Hill added, but we have to be over $200M by now. And there are some posters, who shall rename nameless, that continue to think that our payroll is less than Tampa’s.
Rs have 5.9 mill left to spend up to the cap per spotrac after the AO trade
About the same as the Dodgers (4.6)
Id love to see Hill make it all the way back to Bos; 1/5 should do it
Good concept, but not sure why RSox wouldn’t hold out for a better prospect than cliche pitcher with command issues. Make it hurt or pass for taking on the salary.
He’s a good bounce-back candidate and would be a great trade chip at the deadline. Boston could flip him for a prospect or two if he’s pitching well.
Cashman was given marching orders- stay under the CBT. You can’t blame him.
If that puts them $10MM under the CBT then it is a good chance they sign Gardner for ~ $3MM and call it a day. Save the other $7MM for the trade deadline to fill holes in the pen or rotation. Maybe a block buster for one of the rentals at SS. Had to get the trade done now before any of Ottovino’s salary hit the books
I suspect they will also add in a reliever, although they do have a verity of minor league arms they could look at to replace Ottavino, including Aubreu.
They already have glaring holes in the pen for the 6th and 7th innings with Ottavino and Kahnle gone. It appears Cashman has no plan for that. At least he hasn’t gotten rid of Britton and Chapman, too.
FWIW, I thought the NYY way over-invested in their BP a couple of years I think it was about $50M when they originally signed Ottavino, It is helpful to have a deep BP, but you basically need maybe 4 good guys and 3 minimum-wage, serviceable guys.
Yankees with a pure salary dump. What a time to be alive. Ottavino might not be worth his salary but the way bounce back high upside relievers have been getting paid it’s probably close. This is a great move by Boston.
Yeah, it’s pretty interesting to witness. I do wonder if the Yankees will pull a Chapman if Otto proves he figured himself out and just re-sign him in FA.
But, I am confused as to why we are doing this and bringing back Gardy again. I am a huge Gardy fan, but I distinctly recall when they told Texiera, Posada, etc. it was time to hang it up – they need to tell him if he wants to retire a Yankee, he needs to…. well, retire.
There were better opportunities for LH bats to be brought into the lineup at OF. I envision him announcing his farewell year at the beginning of the season.
Nonetheless, Boston showed some good faith here, and I’m sure the Yankees will respond in kind when Boston is in a similar situation. Money sure does make strange bedfellows.
I know Ottavino had a tough year, but I thought he may be a good bounce back candidate. He had electric stuff at one point.
IMO, the Yankees got rid of a good bounce back candidate to make room for Gardy and a two time TJ SP. I guess I would just prefer to keep Ottavino and his salary.
I don’t follow the Yankees as closely as many at MLBTR so I must be missing something.
The Yankees needed SP and salary relief. The dollars don’t match up exactly, but I guess trading Ottavino allowed the Yankees to sign Kluber and trade for Tallion. Big gamble by Cashman as both are coming off injuries and haven’t pitched much the past two years.
Okay, everyone knows what’s coming next! Of course we have to retire the number, right?
Don’t we do that when someone leaves the team?
I hope Cashman makes the most of the money saved by this trade and doesn’t just spend a large portion of it on bringing Gardner back. I have a bad feeling that Ottavino has a strong season this year and the Red Sox are able to trade him for a solid return at the deadline
Take the one game he gave up 6 against the Jays and he doesn’t have a bad season. Pretty sure some of those runs should have been unearned but today’s scorekeepers will typically gift hitters on borderline plays.
To be fair the Jays did rough him up that night. Still, decent get for the Red Sox. Yanks have enough bullpen arms. Wonder if this is a move to open some money for Gardner or something bigger.
Stupid trade for the yankees. Ottavino is a top reliever. They effectively got worse in this trade, made Boston better. And will now use their savings to bring back .220 Brett Gardner
Top reliever in a video game maybe, but he was not good at all last year. Always was giving up the inherited runners and just was getting hit hard. Enjoy Boston!
As a Pirates fan, I wish we would have taken on Ottavino and his contract if it meant a better return from the Yankees. With payroll in the $40M range, this is the perfect timing for PIT to buy prospects where possible. Missed opportunity IMO
100% spot-on correct, imo.
I don’t mind small-market teams getting bad. It’s part of the cycle. But if you can afford a $80M payroll, but only have $50M in talent, spend the other $30M to enhance the future. And RPs, imho, are the way to go.
Especially with Ottavino. Not only do you get a recent 4th round pick, if Ottavino reverts to his 2019 form, you might be able to flip him for another 4th rounder at the trade deadline. Nothing fancy here, but there is a lot of merit to building up the pipeline.
Have to drop someone from 40 man. With a thrifty owner I would rather have the $ to invest in scouting or international facilities or something. The main problem is the pirates pen is full.
In a perfect world, rich teams don’t attach young talent to bad contracts and instead just do business as usual, but alas. In terms of what this deal is, getting out from most Ottavino’s contract for just German is a pretty good move. He’s definitely a project as his jump to pro ball has been a bit of a mixed bag. He felt the Yankee’s system effect pretty fast as he added velocity in the jump, but that seemed to really cost him his control (and possibly attributed to some shoulder soreness he dealt with). Not really a prospect the Yankee’s system will miss, but there’s enough there to like if you think you can fix his control issues.
In a perfect world you dont have some teams spending 40 mill and then some 250
You don’t see this too often. Then again, “desperate times call for desperate measures”. The Red Sox need pitching while the Yankees need 40-man roster spots to accommodate all their recent acquisitions like DJ LeMahieu and Corey Kluber along with one for their next arrival, FA Brett Gardner. NY would also like to stay beneath the luxury tax threshold as well.
Random trivia. Ottovino wore #0 and when he pitched to Terrance Gore a few years ago it was the first time in major league history that two players wearing #0 faced each other.
So basically it was a none event.
Ottavino did NOT have a tough year. Look into the numbers a little closer.
He gave up half his ER (6 of them!) in one game on September 7;
His ERA was 2.95 otherwise. And struck out 25 guys in 18 innings last year.
Ottavino makes any bullpen in the mlb better. If he was on the open he’s probably getting a Treinen/May type deal.
ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. He let 55% of inherited runs score – he was pretty bad last year. Not what the Yankees need to be spending $9 million on.
If you truly think he wasn’t bad, you didn’t watch him pitch. He got hit hard.
Wow. Are teams completely losing their minds? The Yankees are really trading a very good reliever to a division rival (even THAT division rival) in order to sign the corpse of Brett Gardner and avoid a luxury tax that would basically be a footnote on their spreadsheet? And including a prospect too! I mean, I guess it’s a good trend for overall parity, but it so stinks of collusion.
For the flexibility to re-sign Gardner and bring in another starter, this trade makes all the sense in the world from my vantage point.
Ottavino was not a reliable reliever for the Yankees. They didn’t use him in any pressure situation in the playoffs. Getting under the luxury tax is not a footnote when you go over multiple years in a row. It becomes 50 percent on overages for any years after two in a row. Next year’s FA class may be the best ever. i think they are positioning themselves to be players next year when it matters. Going over the thresh hold for Lindor or Seager might make sense, but not Ottavino!
Even the Yankees are going to have limit on how many 9 figure contracts they can shell out. This is resetting in covid year with little chance of staying competitive and staying under the CBT in the future.
There just aren’t a ton of nine figure FA available. Even if no Covid and money was burning a hole in your pocket, not much out there. If you believe in Bauer I guess, but I don’t. If you believe Realmuto won’t be Mauer I guess, but I wouldn’t be over the tax for the third consecutive year for him. I would want to be under the tax for next year’s FA class. It will be once in a lifetime opportunity.
19 scoreless outings last season. 2 bad outings. 2 others where he gave up one run. That is not unreliable.
Again as Dave 203 said above, the numbers tell one story, but how he was used tells another.
He had basically become a situational righty – frankly has never been really effective against lefties as his bread and butter pitch the slider is less effective against them. And Boone more and more rarely used him in high leverage situations. Had 1 appearance in the playoffs in 2020, and basically spit the bit against the ‘Stros in the ’19 playoffs.
Maybe Boone was wrong about that, but that’s how he used him starting late in ’19. A more balanced effect is more valued with the 3 batter minimum. Paying a guy as much as they were probably didn’t make sense to them when they were flirting with the tax threshold.
Seems like a really good deal for the Red Sox honestly… u basically just pay cash for a top reliever albeit he had rough year last year. But he has spotty years like that about every 2-3 years, so I’d expect him to bounce back just fine. Then the Sox get a top 30 prospect in the rebuild. Not to bad … Ottavino bounces back at all and they are able to flip him, Red Sox will look really smart to make this move. Roughly a $7 mil salary, on the Sox books, expect another mil of that to come off the books if they flip him
He had 2 bad outings last year in the reg season. 2
He wasn’t trusted enough to pitch in playoffs. That’s why Chapman was pitching in a tie game facing right handed hitters in the 9th of a deciding game. That should have been Ottavino’s inning if he wasn’t awful.
This is spot on! The BoSox are getting three in the bag for this one. A solid reliever essentially for free and an SP prospect that has the potential to rise with adding offspeed pitches. And the ability to sell Ottavino for prospects midway through the season!
It doesn’t seem like a great deal to most but the Sox are accumulating!
Kind of how like Atlanta bought Touki Tussoint for taking on Bronson Arroyos salary a few years back.
Yankees dumping salary and giving away a decent reliever to a division rival. What a world.
Paving the way for the Andrew Benintendi and Gary Sanchez trade.
Would’ve liked to see the Phils in on this. And I think Otto still lives like 15 minutes from Citizen’s Bank in South Jersey.
How can Yankees receive cash in return in this deal if they’re already sending cash to the Red Sox? “Here, we’ll send you $850K and you send us back $1M? Thanks!”
Sounds like the phone calls I get all the time.
Because they haven’t, and may never, agree on the player; at which point they return cash instead.
Another fantastic reminder that mlb’s economic system is a joke.
I didn’t know MLB had an “economic system”.
Yep and it’s destroying the game from the inside out.
What is the “system” and how is it destroying the game from the inside out? You mean sharing revenue and a luxury tax are destroying the game???
yes
WOW. I never ever saw this coming
Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater.
Don Baylor for Mike Easler.
Those are two fairly major ones I remember.
I can’t wait for Louie’s reaction when it becomes clear this was done to clear $$$ to bring back Gardner.
We by would Bloom Commit 11 million dollars for this guy? That is money that could be better spent getting a good reliever or starter. I do not understand this guys deals or his routine.
He is good?
LOL!
Last week, you were crying that the RS payroll was going to be less than the TB.
Now that the RS are spending more than your Yankees, you’re whining about that too?
8.15 mill….why do people keep saying 11?
It actually 11.15 million because the Red Sox agreed to pay the 3 million bonus it’s just 8.15 for tax purposes.
Red Sox only care about the portion that counts towards the lux tax.
My bad it’s actually 7.15 but they are paying the bonus as well so 10.15.
Shows 8.15 on spotrac – Thats whats counting against the tax line
A lot of weight being put into his ’20 season struggles I guess — wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he rebounds this coming season.
The Sox are sending Pedroia to the yankees and he’s not retiring? Just kidding. I think it’s kind of funny that these teams haven’t made trades but I get it. It will be fun to see how it turns out.
Wow $8 million under the threshold and the issues the Yankees still have. That pitching staff isnt winning a playoff series. Sorry it is not even average
You can’t win 0-0 but you can win 100-99!!
Yankees needed to open roster spots for Kluber, Taillon & essentially Gardner when he inevitably re-signs
So the Yankees basically opened up 2 roster spots while shedding Ottavino’s salary
No lose here
Whoa…Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
5 straight articles about the Yankees… MLBTR loves them some Yankee news.
That’s how you get clicks. I’m sure the Texas Rangers stories are coming!
Liam Hendriks future!? Everyone waiting for Bauer to sign or what? These mid tier guys must be getting close to signing! Lots of product not enough buyers!
I liked Ottavino and wish him well. Guy is unhittable when he is on. Yankees still need pitching. Will be disappointed if they spend it on anything else. Gardner is old – they need to get younger.
What’s going on with the Red Sox? Have they really become so low as to be taking salary dump from the Yankees to help them out?
So you don’t think Ottavino won’t help us out?
He potentially could be Boston’s best reliever.
Ottavino and a prospect I loved it.
Since the way O has been pitching since late 2019, this is not a bad move. I still remember that game against the Rays last year where he gave up seven without even getting an out. He walked like like eight batters (which is always a frustrating thing about O). They have enough younger pitchers to fill the middle relief innings they can use to gain experience and replace O.
The real question is what do they do with the $9 million? As a Yankee fan I hope they don’t waste it on Gardner. I wonder if Cash has another creative deal in the works. Perhaps they’ll give a pitcher a real low 2021 salary with a major 2022 and 2023 increase.
A low 2021 salary wouldn’t help them as they average the value of the total contract and spread it equally across the life of the deal when it comes to their CBT hit. So if they sign a pitcher for $1M in 2021, $5M in 2022 & $6M in 2023, he counts as $4M against the cap in 2021, 2022 & 2023.
This sounds like a scratch your back trade that works for both teams. The Red Sox have the room to take the salary and the Yankees get to get out of the penalty. A healthy Taillon is more important than a good reliever for the current Yankees team. They are in their window for a title.
This thread will break comment records….
And this is without GA, Randy, AL34, and KD signing in with 10 posts saying this is the worst trade of all time.
This has to be part of some Stranger Things season 4 promo.
People under estimate Cashman and gripe about nothing being done. I am sure he’s working on something big. Perhaps trading some of the extra SP’s and Andujar for Castillo?
I wouldn’t exactly call adding Jameson Taillon and Corey Kluber to the rotation “doing nothing”…and re-signing DJ LeMahieu…and perhaps Gardner as well…in an uncertain COVID financial climate…
…
unreal…
Andujar lol
In order to get Castillo, those “extra starting pitchers” would have to include, Devi, Schmidt or Gil and a couple more prospects as well. Andujar doesn’t move the needle much at all. Are you willing to give up Devi AND Schmidt or Devi & Gil, plus more Top 10 prospects to get Castillo?
Whoa… when’s the last time the Yanks & Red Sox made a trade within the division?
A precursor to te Yankees resigning Brett Gardner whom I love but don’t really want. Gotta give Cashman props for trying to stay under the LTT.
I Have An Idea For Brian Cashman,Trade Roansy Contreras,Albert Abreu,Clarke Schmidt,Gary Sanchez,Miguel Andujar & Clint Frazier to the Milwaukee Brewers for Josh Hader & Devin Williams.
Yes! Take Luke Voit and Gleyber Torres too while you’re at it. It’s buy one, get two day at Yankee Stadium.
Take out Andujar and Sanchez and replace them with elite prospects and you have a deal.
He traded Contreras to the Pirates in the Taillon deal.
Good pickup. I think he can be solid and tradable at deadline. And a prospect.
He will suck at Fenway too. Particularly since he doesn’t have the luxury of pitching in the 6th inning with the Sox pen the way it is. Let’s see how until the Sox DFA him…
I didn’t know we need Gardy to be back that much.
I never would have dreamed the Yankees could be this desperate for cash.
There’s a difference between actually needing cash, and needing your books to read a certain way
It’s not that they couldn’t pay Ottavino 9M. It’s that they needed their books in total to read under 210
Dodgers played these games 2x in last 3 years. Smart teams do this with the CBT
It’ll help us next winter when there’s such a great free agent class and even more money coming off the books for the Yankees. They’re thinking ahead
I hate Cashman but I like him more than Bloom. Cashman has been ineffective at winning but at least he acquires talent when talent is needed. Bloom gives away talent and hopes to build a team by 2030. Good luck keeping your job past 3 top 5 picks in the draft Dumpster Diver.
Lurking – You are spot on but you must explain to many that it’s only being smart if you plan to exceed the 1st threshold in the future. Otherwise, the luxury tax is meaningless. Both NYY and LAD will exceed if they need to ensure being competitive. Boston gave up on being competitive and now Bloom is simply trying to put a team on the field that won’t embarrass them like in 2020. He needs Sale back in May and for E-ROD to rebound from his injury. Without those two events, Ottavino is a one year contract that simply fills out a very bad roster.
The Yankees now have 2 roster spots for LeMahieu and Kluber.
If I’m not mistaken, the Stephen Drew and Kelly Johnson deal won the WGAF Award trophy for 2014.
So Bloom is now doing exactly what Red Sox fans were pissed he wasn’t doing on the Kike thread, right? Buying prospects with cap space?
If it’s not clear yet to Red Sox fans Bloom isn’t trying to win. Cap money for prospects? TB never worried about the cap but behaved in a similar manner. The key question is are these good prospects that will help soon or simply things he’s putting in a refrigerator and might take out in a year or two or three or four.
Stock piling a farm system so you get a good farm system rating is one approach but it’s proven to be very ineffective based on teams that have won rings in the last 10 years. Other than the Dodgers in the COVID season nobody else has successfully stock piled a farm system and won. Following his mentor and helping him prove the theory by GIVING hm Mookie and Price really makes the philosophy questionable unless someone else is going to do the same for Bloom when his refrigerator of prospects are ready.
At the rate Bloom is stock piling lower level talent the Red Sox won’t be competitive in the near future. At the rate he is not acquiring real MLB level talent so he can fill the fridge the Red Sox won’t be competitive in the near future. Sub .500 is the future until Bloom is gone, unless of course Cora comes up with a new way to cheat that helps them over the .500 mark!!
unless of course Cora comes up with a new way to cheat that helps them over the .500 mark!!
=========================================================
Turning your hatred on to Cora now. Good! Let the hatred ooze out of you. I find it inspiring.
Way to help out a division rival, Red Sox. Awful gm…. help out the Yankees why don’t you? Horrendous
I think its the other way around as this improves the Sox. We are still not going anywhere though
I really don’t know why the Yankees did this…
Looking at Ottavino’s numbers, he’s a guy who walks too many people. His whiffle ball curve ball can be effective BUT he is often hurt and he walks too many guys. Since 2016 his walk rates have been 6.6 per 9 innings pitched, 4.2, 5.4 and 4.4 leading to WHIPS of 1.63, 0.99, 1.31 and 1.58. Not exactly late inning control. If you notice the 2018 numbers you see a 4.2 per 9 walk rate but a minuscule 0.99 WHIP. That happened because he had his Frisbee curve ball working and only gave up 41 hits in 77 IP. If that’s the pitcher the Red Sox are getting that would be great! Unfortunately, since 2018 he’s given up in 66 IP 47 hits and 43 walks in 2019 and in 2020 he gave up 20 hits and 9 walks in 18 IP. Huge difference!
Like so many other Red Sox pitchers, Ottavino needs to revert back to his 2018 numbers to be considered effective or a good use of his salary. It is a one-year deal for a team that is not competitive so the money is only significant in opportunity lost. The Red Sox are so far from competing that maybe using that money to get better prospects that are closer to the majors than the AA players Bloom has been rounding up would make sense. That way 2022 won’t as embarrassing as 2020 or the upcoming 2021 season.
A few threads back, you posted:
KD171 day ago
Let’s start at 60 Wins and figure out which of the better teams the Red Sox might be able to beat. 70 wins is aggressive. 80 is pure fandom.
=========================================================================
So I suggest a friendly wager. If 80 is pure fandom, I will take 81 and above. If I am right, then after the regular season, then you sign off for the rest of the calendar. If they win 80 or less, then you are right, I will sign off for the rest of the year.
Any interest?
You suggest that my post is wrong so I am willing to put my money or access to the site where my mouth is. BUT no general bets. It takes no baseball knowledge to bet that a team will win 81 or 82 games.
Show your baseball knowledge and I will take the bet. You must estimate each series just as I did and the one who is closer to the actual outcome wins the series. There are 19 series in 2021 so 10 series wins is all it takes. If there are ties then the highest winning percentage wins just like tie-breakers on ESPN fantasy.
List your 19 series records and make sure you have 81 wins or more and you have a deal. This puts a lot of pressure on you to predict series by doing deeper analysis than you are used to. Either way I win. If my total is more correct then you are gone and if your total is more correct I will have taught you how to actually do baseball analysis!!! I love this deal.
You’re very impressed with yourself.
KD17
Too much variance in predicting series. Nor would any sports book choose that as a betting prop. Nor do the sites that predict records care about how they do against individual teams. Nor do I care whom they do well or poorly against. I only care about, and what the rest of the word cares about, are the total wins.
I am telling you right now that they will win at least 81 games. If you, or the rest of the whiners disagree, feel free to make the wager.
Butch779988 – Who are you and what does any of this have to do with you? Troll somewhere else you jackass.
JoeBrady – I get it. No expertise just a gambler. That’s fine. When you want to talk specifics in baseball I’m here. Generalizations don’t take much thought or analysis. The competition was supposed to show baseball knowledge not what a gambler you are.
Anytime you want to talk baseball specifics I’m here to challenge your knowledge of the game.
I use an analysis. Unlike you, I don’t necessarily believe that my methods are better or worse than anyone else’s. Oddly enough, I predict runs scored and runs allowed. You know, the things that win games.
Feel free to decline, but anytime you post your absolute garbage about 70 wins being aggressive, I will be there to challenge your assertion in the form of a wager.
Which you won’t accept, because you know you are wrong.
I don’t detail every series so I can win a bet, I do it to set expectations and begin a lively discussion of how the Red Sox will do against each competitor. You are always welcome to disagree but just like EVERYTHING you post, you throw out your opinion as if it’s fact and back it with nothing.
I’m looking for discussions with readers who know the game and have reasons for suggesting why the Red Sox might win more games against the Yankees or Atlanta than I predicted. If their argument is good, I will reconsider my prediction and update it, if it’s fluff like yours then I’ll ignore it.
KD17
you throw out your opinion as if it’s fact and back it with nothing.
================================================================
Predictions about 2021 are always opinions. That goes without saying. I calculated how many runs I expect the RS to score, and how many I expect them to allow. I’m not even sure why this needs to be explained, but your runs scored and runs allowed is what determines your record. There is always some variance for luck, but it is usually 95% accurate.
We could even do something even easier for you. I am willing to bet that we outscore our opponents this year. If you think that 70 wins is being aggressive, then you would certainly win the wager.
LMK when your ready to decorate the mahogany.
KD17 the only one embarrassed by 2020 is YOU.
Red Sox fans understand it was an essential part of the process. We could see it coming, and we advocated the trading of mookie.. WHO WAS GOING TO WALK ANYWAY for future assets.. and that’s what Bloom has been doing.
No one is embarrassed except for YOU. That’s because you really don’t understand The ins-and-outs of Major League Baseball and how a team is built. No team wins Championships 10 years in a row, there’s an ebb and flow in baseball.
Dombrowski came in to win it all and he did that. Bloom was brought in to reset the tax, rebuild the farm, and get back to winning ways via a different path. Do you realize this doesn’t happen overnight? I’m all for it as a true Red Sox fan. You are embarrassed because you don’t know how Major League Baseball works. Everyone here is trying to tell you that except for maybe two or three other sad sacks who are crying that we haven’t signed Osuna or Bauer or kluber or Brad Hand.
You’re a financial analyst you should be able to understand this concept. If you work with individuals, and a man comes to you and says, I want to retire in two years,” you ask him, well what have you done for the last 30? “Well, nothing.”
I’M SORRY SIR THESE THINGS TAKE TIME, it doesn’t happen overnight.
KD17, can you see it, can you understand? Okay I hope that resonates. My fingers are crossed.
Gary, my first response to your non-sense was not allowed. Apparently bs spelled out is bad. I guess using it a half dozen times to describe your writings isn’t acceptable.
Key points you fabricated:
– I’m not embarrassed by 2020 but I do feel empathy for your lack of writing skills
– Ownership’s actions were not part of an essential process. Pure fabrication on their part and you were gullible enough to believe them
– The only reason anyone guessed that Mookie would leave was because they had inside information about the treatment of Mookie and his family. It’s a well established belief that the Red Sox lack diversity and it starts at the top. Having a star minority player not willing to listen to offers from the Red Sox says volumes about the reality of the diversity issue in the Red Sox.
= You suggest everyone believes as you do but you stand alone in trying to tell me how baseball works. Does that type of argument work against your peers? Does it seem like I would care if you and a few of your buddies think they know something about baseball and are dead wrong? Nope. I’m simply trying to educate you. I will say it again and I hope you finally realize how wrong you are: There is NO immediate need to get under the luxury tax 1st threshold if you have no plans to exceed it in the future. Bloom came to Boston to change the payroll spending from big market to small market. That means never exceeding the luxury tax 1st threshold again. The amount of time to get under was just a small money issue. The luxury tax in 2020 would have been less than JBJ’s salary.
= Financial analysis of the Red Sox shows multiple mistakes. First, you buy low and sell high not the other way around like they did. Next, you don’t pay $16M to not have Price play because it will cost you $10M to keep him based on how his salary impacts the luxury tax. Next, you don’t deconstruct a team in their prime so 5 years later you can have a team half past their prime and half in their prime. Sale, JD and a few others were the only guys over 30 before we parted with Mookie and Price. Paying $10M in luxury tax and finding a way to keep Mookie through apologies or extra money would have been the right approach to the future. Now, the future is completely pushed back a half decade.
= Change for the sake of change is a dumb strategy in a big market baseball team. Retooling not rebuilding is the way the successful owners behave if they have a big market team. The Red Sox ownership understood that for 20 years and then suddenly had a psychotic break and morphed into a small market team. That’s great for draft picks but not so great for rings.
I hope you see another ring in your lifetime, but it’s highly questionable that you will. Ownership will need to re-morph back into their old philosophy for winning.
You’re correct about my writing skills. I don’t have any LOL.
And a fair enough we don’t agree on Red Sox baseball. But I’m looking forward to the season and you’re not. Sounds good.
I think Ottavino’s 2020 numbers are heavily skewed because of the game he gave up 6 runs to the Jays without recording an out. Outside of that one horrid appearance, he had a decent season. I actually expect he’ll be solid with Boston for the first half and probably get traded for a prospect or two around the trade deadline. I don’t think Ottavino, even at his best, moves the dial and suddenly makes the Red Sox contenders. It’s a pretty low risk, high reward scenario for Boston. If Otto stinks and they can’t move him, he’s on an expiring contract and they’re still under the luxury tax. No harm, no foul.
For the Yankees, this was a straight up salary dump. They want to get under the luxury tax threshold and it’s hard to justify paying your 4th or 5th best reliever almost 10M a year. I feel like this opens up enough space to bring on a couple cheap depth signings to shore up their roster.
Overall, this is a weird trade (considering the parties involved) but will likely work out for both sides.
Outside of that one horrid appearance, he had a decent season.
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I’ve heard that a couple of times on this thread, but the same could be said of a lot players That said, if I had to rely on one set of numbers, it would be that his FIP over the two years was 3.44 & 3.52. If we got that, I’d be real happy.
With a full spring he’ll be good. However the team will not contend
Does anyone believe the Yankees are better now than they were at the end of last year? Their bullpen is weaker, their starting pitching is arguably weaker and they have made no improvements to their lineup.
I’d say similar. They replaced Happ, Tanaka, and Paxton with Kluber and Taillon.
But the important thing to keep in mind is that, much like the 2020 RS, the 2021 NYY are committed to getting under the cap. Unless you are losing a couple of heavy salaried, under-performing players, it is difficult to get any better.
When you look at the available FA market it doesn’t make sense to be over the tax thresh hold when next year’s class is one of the best ever. Yankees need a healthy roster not a ton of additions to the roster. Yankees were one run from beating the Rays in the playoffs last year. If Severino, Judge, Stanton, Kluber, Taillon are healthy they are better than last year. Plus Rays are worse so some of the gap was closed that way as well.
larkraxm – Agreed. The Rays drop-off and Yankee improvement puts them back at the top but Toronto will replace Tampa as their main competitor. The Yankees planned to pay 30% tax on all spending over the luxury tax 1st threshold in 2020 so they grabbed Cole and others and exceeded it by more than the 3rd threshold. Lucky for them COVID reduced that by 60/162. At the time they made the moves the expectation was a payroll near $300M with penalties and they didn’t care!!
Why does anyone think that will change in 2021? They maximized their penalties in 2020 without hesitation, I fully expect the same thing in 2021. The penalties will jump from 30% to 50% but if you are willing to exceed the 3rd threshold at 30% why would you care if you exceed the 1st threshold at 50%? The Yankees have no financial constraints on them, they simply need to evaluate what’s available and then do whatever they think will help them win. All other teams care about the luxury tax, the Yankees stopped caring after their last dip below the cap. The young Steinbrenner group of owners is now resembling their father.
Maybe at some point the Pandemic might make them less aggressive but 2020 suggested just the opposite.
At the time they made the moves the expectation was a payroll near $300M with penalties and they didn’t care!!
Why does anyone think that will change in 2021?
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It’s already changed. It’s been in all the papers. They are staying under the cap for 2021. I believe that their new nickname is Tampa Bay North.
Again, no clue what you are talking about. It must be so because the papers say so? Hahahaha moron.
The Yankees will exceed the threshold unless they can dump someone like Stanton on a team with a low payroll like Miami. Heck Jeter gave them a discount to get him, maybe he’ll help his old team yet again and unload their financial albatross for the sake of making the Marlins competitive. It won’t but I could see him involved in further collusion with the Yankees!!
It must be so because the papers say so?
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It must be so because the data says it so. Until they go over the cap, then they have not gone over the cap.
In regard for Jeter giving them a discount, he absolutely conned them. No one else in baseball wanted that contract.
But as long as you think it was a discount, I am more than willing to go along with that charade. Hopefully, the NYY will get more ‘discounts’.
JoeBrady – Been looking at the 2021 fantasy baseball season and I found it interesting that David Price is ranked higher than any Red Sox starting pitcher going into 2021. You supported the deal that pays LAD $16M a year so Red Sox fans could watch Price flourish in LA. Does that still seem like the great deal you supported? Two full years of Price pitching for LA while $16M per year of needed cap room is being wasted!
You are right, Bloom is a great GM!! hahahaha Don’t you hate when facts prove your beliefs are so incredibly wrong!!! You really should stay on the Yankee website. It’s only going to get worse with each ridiculous thing you write.
You supported the deal that pays LAD $16M a year so Red Sox fans could watch Price flourish in LA. Does that still seem like the great deal you supported?
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I didn’t care about the Price side of the trade. I thought he was worth about $16M.
IRT him flourishing in LA, you probably aren’t aware of it, but he has not yet thrown a pitch in LA. Past that, I have no problem with either him or Betts ‘flourishing’ in LA. The were both great RS, and Price helped bring a WSC to Boston, and Betts helped bring 2 WSC to Boston.
So until they face the RS, I wish them nothing but the best.