Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

Trade Market For Catchers

By Tim Dierkes | July 1, 2014 at 7:32am CDT

Last summer, catchers Steve Clevenger and Drew Butera were traded in July, while Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were dealt in August. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Dodgers could consider adding a starting catcher, while clubs such as the Royals and Giants could seek a backup. Here’s a look at this summer’s trade market for catchers. The roles listed below could differ based on the acquiring team.

Starters

Miguel Montero (Diamondbacks), Carlos Ruiz (Phillies), Kurt Suzuki (Twins), Jason Castro (Astros), Welington Castillo (Cubs), Wilin Rosario (Rockies), Yasmani Grandal (Padres), A.J. Pierzynski (Red Sox)

Montero, 30, has been the most productive of the group. He’s having a resurgent campaign after a lost 2013, and at the trade deadline he’ll have roughly $43MM left on his contract through 2017. However, the D’Backs are not looking to dump salary, and aim to contend in 2015. To that end, trading Montero doesn’t make sense, but GM Kevin Towers is known as the Gunslinger for a reason.
The Phillies made a three-year commitment to Ruiz last offseason, so he’s not the most likely candidate to be dealt. Plus, he’s currently on the seven-day concussion DL.
Suzuki, a free agent after the season, seems a reasonable trade candidate. He’s having his best season in years and will be owed less than a million bucks by the deadline. The Twins could look to extend him instead, though.
Castro’s performance has taken a tumble since his breakout 2013 season. Certainly the Astros would consider trading the 27-year-old, who is under team control through 2016 as an arbitration eligible player. However, the club will probably be disinclined to sell low.
Castillo is a speculative name here, in that the Cubs would likely at least listen. He’s 27 years old and under team control through 2017, and the Cubs don’t have much catching in their farm system. But if they manage to acquire a better “Catcher of the Future” candidate in another trade, moving Castillo becomes more palatable.
Would the Rockies trade Rosario? They made an offer to Ruiz in the offseason, suggesting they weren’t thrilled with Rosario’s defensive chops. Rosario, just 25, is under team control through 2017. He hit 49 home runs from 2012-13.
Grandal is a player who could be considered more by a non-contending team, if the Padres decide to cut bait with the former top prospect.
At 6.5 games out, the Red Sox are currently on the bubble of contention. The meager return they could get for Pierzynski may not be worth shaking up their catching situation, with the veteran having the worst offensive season of his career.

Backups

Robinson Chirinos (Rangers), Ryan Hanigan (Rays), Rene Rivera (Padres), Carlos Corporan (Astros), Chris Gimenez (Rangers), John Ryan Murphy (Yankees), Austin Romine (Yankees), Tony Sanchez (Pirates), David Ross (Red Sox), J.P. Arencibia (Rangers), John Baker (Cubs), Jose Molina (Rays), Geovany Soto (Rangers), Gerald Laird (Braves)

It should be noted that Soto is currently on the 60-day DL, recovering from March knee surgery. This group presents a wide range of options, with a few players who are able to play regularly as well as some young players who have yet to establish themselves. Hanigan would be the most complicated one to move, with nearly $12MM coming to him through 2016.

Astros’ Trade Discussion Notes Leaked

By Tim Dierkes | June 30, 2014 at 4:33pm CDT

4:30pm: The Astros have issued the following statement regarding the leaked notes:

“Last month, we were made aware that proprietary information held on Astros’ servers and in Astros’ applications had been illegally obtained. Upon learning of the security breach, we immediately notified MLB security who, in turn, notified the FBI. Since that time, we have been working closely with MLB security and the FBI to the determine the party, or parties, responsible. This information was illegally obtained and published, and we intend to prosecute those involved to the fullest extent.

“It is unfortunate and extremely disappointing that an outside source has illegally obtained confidential information. While it does appear that some of the content released was based on trade conversations, a portion of the material was embellished or completely fabricated.”

2:29pm: Extensive trade discussion notes, apparently logged by Astros executives about their talks with other teams, have been leaked onto the site AnonBin here and here, with Deadspin breaking the story and Yahoo’s Jeff Passan verifying the authenticity of the logs. The earliest notes are from June 2013, and the latest are from March of this year. The Astros have yet to comment on the leak, which provides unprecedented detail into how the team values players and approaches trade discussions. According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Astros have been reaching out to people around baseball apologizing for the leaks, and plan to issue a statement soon.

A March feature by Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle outlines Ground Control, the Astros’ confidential internal database from which the trade discussion notes were likely taken. At this time, it’s unclear whether the information reached the Internet via a rogue employee of the team, or by some kind of security vulnerability in Ground Control. The trade discussion information, mostly from last summer and offseason, is somewhat dated in the fast-moving baseball hot stove world. The larger ramification is the breach of trust experienced by the many non-Astros executives cited in the notes. It’s unlikely any team would rule out the Astros as a trading partner based on this breach, but some teams could approach talks with added caution. Additionally, I imagine the many other teams with such highly sensitive material online are doubling down on security right now.

The Astros’ trade notes from last summer and offseason range from the blockbuster to the mundane; here are some highlights.

On November 15th, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow expressed interest with Marlins GM Dan Jennings in slugger Giancarlo Stanton. From the notes: “[Jennings] said he doesn’t think he’ll trade Stanton and the only deal he could think of from us that would work would be [George] Springer and [Carlos] Correa. [Luhnow] said that would not work. [Luhnow] posited a deal around [Jarred] Cosart and [Delino] DeShields.” It’s not a big surprise that Luhnow rejected Jennings’ proposal out of hand, as Correa and Springer were ranked #4 and #19 on Keith Law’s top 100 prospects list for ESPN, and are major building blocks for Houston. That Luhnow didn’t appear to offer either player suggests he was mostly gauging Stanton’s price after an off-year with three years of control remaining. UPDATE: Jennings has commented to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, saying it’s fabricated that they ever offered Stanton to the Astros or any other team, also using the word “laughable.”
Interest in Astros catcher Jason Castro was strong last offseason, with a few surprising suitors. The Blue Jays and Rangers reached out in mid-October to gauge Castro’s price, the White Sox had “definite high interest,” and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik told Luhnow in November that he was getting calls from other teams asking if he could get Castro from the Astros for those teams. Zduriencik offered Dustin Ackley and was turned down.
Notes for the Astros’ summer trade discussions begin at June 17th, 2013. The team ultimately went on to acquire Ronald Torreyes from the Cubs in June, and also dealt veterans Jose Veras, Bud Norris, and Justin Maxwell near the July deadline. The Astros did not end up acquiring any top 100-type prospects, but they sure did ask for the moon. For Norris, the Astros sought Kyle Crick and Clayton Blackburn from the Giants, Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman from the Orioles, Marcus Stroman and more from the Blue Jays, Xander Bogaerts, Allen Webster, Jackie Bradley Jr., or Garin Cecchini from the Red Sox, and Tyler Glasnow plus Luis Heredia or Nick Kingham from the Pirates. The Red Sox offered Ryan Lavarnway or Deven Marrero for Norris and were turned down. In the end, the Astros traded Norris and an international draft slot to the Orioles for L.J. Hoes, Josh Hader, and a 2014 competitive balance pick.
When Nationals GM Mike Rizzo called to express interest in middling Astros starting pitcher Lucas Harrell, who had a 5.17 ERA at the time and nearly as many walks as strikeouts, “[Luhnow] told him we would still need a headliner like [Lucas] Giolito because we still value Harrell highly. Rizzo did not respond immediately.”
Harrell was designated for assignment, outrighted, and traded for a pittance nine months later, so the Astros might have overplayed their hand.
“Untouchable” players from other teams were revealed through conversations with their executives. White Sox GM Rick Hahn wouldn’t consider trading Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, or Avisail Garcia. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos considered Brett Lawrie off-limits. Pirates outfield prospect Gregory Polanco came up as well, in that GM Neal Huntington wouldn’t include him in any Norris deal. In December talks regarding Harrell, the Giants said they would not discuss Brandon Belt.
More random notes: Mets executive Paul DePodesta asked Luhnow if the Astros would consider trading shortstop Jonathan Villar in a Daniel Murphy deal in December…the Marlins expressed interest in Jose Altuve, Matt Dominguez, and others in December.

2015 Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | June 19, 2014 at 2:50pm CDT

We’re always looking ahead at MLBTR, and it’s time for another entry in our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings series. My May edition can be found here, and the full list of 2015 free agents is here.

1. Hanley Ramirez. A strong showing over the last month elevates Ramirez back to #1 status. All is quiet on the extension front, with the 30-year-old shortstop telling Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports on June 3rd that there are no ongoing talks.

2. Max Scherzer. Scherzer led the AL with a 1.83 ERA at the time of our last rankings, but since then he’s posted a 6.86 ERA in six starts, even though one of those outings was a shutout. There’s no reason to think the righty won’t get back on track, but some of the shine will come off if he finishes the season with an ERA in the high 3s.

3. Jon Lester. Things are going fine for Lester, who is looking for his first sub-3.50 ERA since 2011. Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino said on WEEI in late May that he expects to engage in further extension talks, and GM Ben Cherington said something similar on June 10th.

4. James Shields. Lester and Shields were unlikely to uphold their matching 2.67 ERAs from our last rankings, but a hittable five-start run has brought the Royals’ ace up to 3.50. Nonetheless, his team has won ten straight and sits in first place in the AL Central. At the least, the Royals’ success shuts down the speculation from a few weeks ago that Shields could be a trade candidate. That means he’s likely to come with a qualifying offer attached.

5. Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval has been crushing the ball over his last 35 games, and I’ve moved the 27-year-old up to his best spot yet. If he can stay healthy, Sandoval seems a good bet for his first 20 home run season since 2011. The Giants have the best record in the NL and a track record of keeping their own, so it’s quite possible Sandoval never reaches the open market.

6. Nelson Cruz. With 10 home runs since our last rankings and an MLB-best 22 overall, I can’t keep denying Cruz his spot on this list. A 40 home run, 120 RBI season gets a guy paid, even if Cruz is lacking on defense, turns 35 next summer, and endured a Biogenesis suspension last year. Barring injury, Carlos Beltran’s three-year, $45MM deal could be Cruz’s floor this winter even with a qualifying offer.

7. Victor Martinez. V-Mart is another aging bat-first player who continues to crush the ball. With good health, he seems likely to fly past his career high of 25 home runs, which happened eight seasons ago. Martinez is primed for his first All-Star appearance since 2010, as well as another multiyear contract.

8. Mike Morse. Morse rounds out our trio of bats newly joining these rankings. The 32-year-old is hitting .289/.343/.533 in 265 plate appearances and is looking like one of the offseason’s best bargains with a $6MM salary. Morse hasn’t exceeded 102 games in a season since 2011, so he must continue to avoid the DL to improve his earning power.

9. Asdrubal Cabrera. Another new entrant to the list, Cabrera has been solid but unspectacular with a .255/.323/.409 line on the season. He has age on his side, as he turns 29 in November. However, Cabrera’s defense at shortstop is generally considered below-average.

10. Russell Martin. Martin leads all starting catchers with a .418 OBP, though he missed nearly a month with a hamstring strain. His .272 batting average may not last, but he’s also posting a career-best 14.6% walk rate. Still only 31, Martin could be a popular free agent this winter.

These rankings have seen plenty of turnover since last month, with Ervin Santana, Justin Masterson, Chase Headley, Colby Rasmus, and Jed Lowrie dropping out of the top ten due to lackluster performance or injury. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett is making a push, including a May 25th no-hitter, 26-year-old Japanese righty Kenta Maeda has a 2.68 ERA through 11 starts, and Jason Hammel has become excellent trade bait for the Cubs. Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Adam LaRoche, and Seth Smith are position players worth a mention.

DraftStreet Pick’Em League: Win Share Of $2500 Payout

By Tim Dierkes | May 29, 2014 at 11:32pm CDT

Looking to show off your fantasy baseball skills and get your share of a $2500 prize pool? Check out DraftStreet’s latest Pick’Em League for MLBTR readers. This one-day fantasy contest covers Friday’s games only and has an $11 buy-in.

The Pick’Em draft room contains eight tiers of players, and you simply have to pick one player from each tier. Click here to see the stats that will be used. The Pick’Em League begins is for Friday night’s games, so sign up by 6:55pm eastern time. The top 40 finishers will be paid, with the top spot earning $500.

Here’s a look at my team:

This is a sponsored post from DraftStreet.

2015 Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | May 19, 2014 at 2:05pm CDT

We’re always looking ahead at MLBTR, and it’s time for another entry in our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings series. Steve Adams’ April edition can be found here, and the full list of 2015 free agents is here.

1. Max Scherzer. Scherzer has allowed six runs in the 39 innings he’s pitched since our last edition of these rankings, driving his ERA down to an AL-best 1.83 and earning him our top spot. His decision to turn down a six-year, $144MM offer from the Tigers before the season is looking wise. A new deal will begin with Scherzer’s age-30 season. I have to think agent Scott Boras will seek something in the range of Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM deal. That contract includes an opt-out clause after the fifth year. Key differences, aside from performance: Kershaw’s contract began with his age 26 season, but it was not negotiated on the open market.

2. Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez’s .251/.333/.450 line on the young season qualifies as good but not great. Among shortstops, his weighted on-base average places him sixth among qualifiers. Last Thursday, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports described extension talks with the Dodgers, writing, “there’s still a significant enough gap that it may take a while to do a deal, assuming one will get done.” Heyman threw out a $130MM figure in the article, drawing Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo comparisons. Those players received seven-year deals on the open market, but Heyman feels the length of a Ramirez contract could be a big question in these negotiations. If the Dodgers succeed in preventing Ramirez from reaching free agency, we could be in line for the first offseason without a $100MM position player since 2005-06 (the first offseason covered by this website).

3. Jon Lester. Lester and James Shields have been keeping pace this year, with each hurler sporting a 2.67 ERA. In the time since our last rankings, Lester added to his resume with a career-best 15 strikeout performance against the A’s on May 3rd. We haven’t heard much on the extension front, save for an April comment from Red Sox manager John Farrell about the team’s intention to make every effort to retain their ace.

4. James Shields. Shields is the workhorse of this free agent class, as he’s on pace to exceed 220 innings for the fourth year in a row. A five-year deal, however, would be buying into his age 33-37 seasons. In a March assessment of Shields’ upcoming free agency, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd suggested $100MM as a ceiling, proposing the interesting idea of an opt-out clause.

5. Ervin Santana. Last month, MLBTR’s Steve Adams made the bold choice of ranking Santana over Justin Masterson. That call is looking correct, as Santana continues to miss bats above his career rate, partially due to his new change-up. Having signed on March 12th, however, Santana will be subject to a qualifying offer from the Braves after the season. Dragging around a QO again will hurt, but he should be able to find a strong four-year deal this time. One potential solution would be to just sign a midseason extension with the Braves.

6. Justin Masterson. With a 4.78 ERA and 3.9 BB/9 in his last seven starts, Masterson hasn’t done anything to justify moving up the rankings. Still, he’s shown enough overall to suggest he’ll pitch at a sub-4.00 ERA moving forward, and he doesn’t turn 30 until March. Last year’s velocity hasn’t returned, but he’s made some recent progress in that regard.

7. Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval has 13 hits in his last eight games, perhaps suggesting he’s getting on track to reach his typical level of offense. Sandoval won’t turn 28 until August, and the third baseman could greatly benefit from the weak free agent class for position players with a strong four and a half months. The Giants and Sandoval broke off extension talks in late April, with Jon Heyman reporting the player sought at least $100MM on a five-year deal, with the team open to four years.

8. Chase Headley. Headley falls from the #6 spot last month. He missed a few weeks with a calf strain, and has at least shown some pop and patience in the eight games since his return. However, the 30-year-old ranks just 18th among third basemen in wOBA over the last year, with a .309 mark. That’s actually better than Sandoval during that time, so I won’t argue if you prefer Headley to Panda. Regardless, good defense and a league average bat won’t result in a big contract for Headley, so he needs to start hitting.

9. Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is currently on the DL with hamstring tightness. The center fielder doesn’t turn 28 until August, and he’s shown 30 home run power when on the field. Steve Adams’ comparison to B.J. Upton in last month’s rankings was apt. Despite a qualifying offer, Upton snagged his five-year, $75MM deal coming off a .246/.298/.454 batting line. Rasmus sits at .222/.266/.489 this year.

10. Jed Lowrie. This marks Lowrie’s first appearance on these Power Rankings. He just turned 30, and his wOBA is only a touch below Hanley Ramirez’s among shortstops this year. He’s upped his walk rate to career-best 11.5%. Lowrie seems to be settling in as a 3-4 win infielder, shaking off early injury concerns. Omar Infante’s deal could be a starting point.

Melky Cabrera, 30 in August, is close to cracking the top ten. The Jays left fielder is off to a .310/.350/.481 start in 200 plate appearances. However, his defense drags his value down.

Nelson Cruz, Mike Morse, and Victor Martinez are also at the top of various offensive leaderboards in the early going. However, they’re older than the players in the top ten and offer no value defensively, and could come with qualifying offers. Cabrera, Cruz, Morse, and Martinez will have to stay healthy and continue raking to overcome their defensive limitations.

Plenty of 2015 free agent hurlers are off to strong starts, as Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, Jason Hammel, A.J. Burnett, Dan Haren, and Chris Young sport ERAs under 3.50. On the international front, 26-year-old righty Kenta Maeda has a 2.33 ERA after eight starts for the Hiroshima Carp.

MLB-Related Job Opening

By Tim Dierkes | May 19, 2014 at 7:21am CDT

A well-known sports entity is hiring an analyst in their MLB research group. Ideal candidate is a recent college graduate with a passion for baseball. This position is in Southern California (relocation not provided).

If interested, please reply to the following address by May 26, 2014: baseballresume@gmail.com.

In the subject line of the email, please put “Research Job.” The body of your email should first contain your resume, appropriately formatted. No cover letters or attachments, please. Below your resume, please put 1) your full contact information, 2) how you obtained this listing, and 3) your minimum annual salary requirement. The salary requirement needs to be a specific dollar figure.

From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

Braves Extend Chris Johnson

By Tim Dierkes | May 2, 2014 at 12:20pm CDT

12:20pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter) that Johnson is guaranteed $23.5MM over the life of the deal, and the 2018 club option is valued at $10MM.

12:02pm: The Braves have suddenly become Major League Baseball’s most active team on the extension front, and they continued their rash of long-term deals on Friday by officially announcing a three-year deal for third baseman Chris Johnson. The contract will buy out two arbitration years and one free agent season, and the Braves hold a club option on a fourth year. Johnson, 29, is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Johnson, a fourth-round draft pick of the Astros in 2006, was dealt to the Diamondbacks near the 2012 trade deadline. He later joined the Braves in January 2013 along with Justin Upton, with Arizona receiving Martin Prado, Randall Delgado, Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed, and Brandon Drury. So far Johnson has compiled a .307/.344/.438 batting line in 643 plate appearances spanning 167 games for Atlanta. He was worth 2.8 wins above replacement last season, according to FanGraphs.

Johnson had three years and 144 days of Major League service prior to this season, so he’s already been arbitration eligible twice (the first time as a Super Two player). Johnson is earning $4.75MM this year, and the Braves previously had him under team control through 2016.

As MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows, Johnson stands to become the sixth Braves player to sign a multiyear extension since February, after the team committed 27 years and $280.7MM to Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel, and Andrelton Simmons. Only Heyward’s two-year deal failed to extend team control. Excel Sports Management represents Freeman, Heyward, and Johnson.

MLBTR was the first to report that the two sides were finalizing an extension. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported (via Twitter) that it was a three-year deal with a club option.

Steve Adams contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A.J. Griffin Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Tim Dierkes | April 30, 2014 at 5:17pm CDT

WEDNESDAY: Griffin’s surgery took place today, according to the Athletics’ official Twitter feed.

TUESDAY: Griffin will, in fact, have Tommy John surgery, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets.

FRIDAY 7:12pm: “No decision on the next course of treatment will be finalized” until Dr. Mehlhoff sees Griffin on Tuesday, A’s assistant GM David Forst tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link).

6:28pm: Athletics righty A.J. Griffin will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, a source tells Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com. An elbow issue first cropped up for the 26-year-old pitcher in March, and word came from A’s manager Bob Melvin this week that Griffin would visit Houston-area specialist Dr. Thomas Mehlhoff on Tuesday for a second opinion.

Griffin provided 200 innings of 3.83 ball as a member of the A’s rotation last year. The A’s had already lost Jarrod Parker to Tommy John in March. The A’s seemed to have a surplus of starting pitching when they reached an agreement with Scott Kazmir in December, but attrition has taken its toll. Nonetheless, Oakland’s 2.74 rotation ERA ranks first in the American League this year. The group is comprised of Kazmir, Sonny Gray, Dan Straily, Tommy Milone, and the surprising Jesse Chavez. The A’s may still be compelled to add to their starting pitching depth as the summer wears on.

In an ESPN article today, Jayson Stark addressed this year’s Tommy John epidemic, of which Griffin appears to be the 17th victim.

Hardest-Throwing 2015 Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | April 25, 2014 at 9:46pm CDT

“Why do you guys care about velo such much, man?” Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon asked reporters last week. Fastball velocity continues to hold great appeal to fans, reporters, and baseball executives, especially with so much data readily available. Beyond the pure excitement of watching Yordano Ventura or Stephen Strasburg pitch, fastball velocity is often an indicator of success. With that in mind, here’s a look at the currently velocity leaders among those eligible for free agency after this season.

Relievers

Kyle Farnsworth – 94.2
Andrew Miller – 94.2
David Robertson – 94.2
Chris Perez – 93.8
Joba Chamberlain – 93.8
Matt Albers – 93.8 (club option)
Carlos Marmol – 93.6
Jim Johnson – 93.4
Matt Lindstrom – 93.2
Brian Wilson – 92.6 (player option)

Starters

Brandon Morrow – 93.5 (club option)
Felipe Paulino – 93.0 (club option)
Johnny Cueto – 92.9 (club option)
Ervin Santana – 92.4
Dustin McGowan – 92.3 (club option)
Jason Hammel – 92.1
Jorge de la Rosa – 92.1
Josh Beckett – 91.9
James Shields – 91.8
Francisco Liriano – 91.8

Note that the game’s hardest throwers are generally not available in free agency, as they’re also among the younger pitchers. Farnsworth, 38, is the hardest-throwing free agent but ranks 43rd overall among all pitchers.

Top Young Position Players Without Extensions

By Tim Dierkes | April 25, 2014 at 8:14pm CDT

Last year, 56 position players with less than six years of Major League service time were worth at least 2.5 wins above replacement. Of those, 21 have contract extensions that bought out or gave a club option on at least one free agent year. That comes to 37.5%. As popular as extensions are for above-average young position players, 62.5% of our sample has not delayed free agency. Let’s take a closer look.

Of the 35 players who do not have an extension, eight are represented by the Boras Corporation, including Chris Davis, Bryce Harper, Desmond Jennings, Eric Hosmer, and Pedro Alvarez. Boras tends to encourage his players to go year-to-year and reach free agency as early as possible. What about the other 27 players?

Josh Donaldson, Athletics: Certainly players can and do sign long-term deals after just one elite season, which is what Donaldson has under his belt. Last year was also Donaldson’s first full season as a regular, which at age 27 makes him a late bloomer in this group. One other factor is that he changed agencies within the last few months. Donaldson is off to a torrid start in 2014, increasing his price tag if he decides to do a deal after the season.
Manny Machado, Orioles. 2014 was also Machado’s first full season as a regular, at age 20. He suffered a torn knee ligament in September that required major surgery (his minor league rehab assignment began tonight), so it made sense to wait on exploring a deal.
Ian Desmond, Nationals. During the offseason, the Nationals proposed a multiyear deal to Desmond believed to be worth around $90MM, reported Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Instead, a two-year deal was reached that did not affect Desmond’s path toward free agency. One of Desmond’s agents, Doug Rogalski, told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that talks with the Nationals have been amicable. Elvis Andrus’ eight-year, $120MM deal a year ago will be a factor in discussions.
Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays. Rasmus posted a 4.8 win season in 2013, but had been worth only 1.6 wins in the previous two seasons. He’s had a couple of agency changes along the way, and is now months from becoming a free agent at age 28.
Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks. Parra generates much of his value defensively, and has a pair of Gold Gloves to prove it. Defensive-minded players have started to see the dollars more, but offense still earns the big bucks in arbitration and free agency.
Jason Castro, Astros. The Astros have acknowledged some level of discussion involving a Castro extension, but it hasn’t happened yet. There’s no indication as to how large of a gap the two sides face.
Brandon Belt, Giants. Belt posted a very strong 2013, but he’s scorching in 2014 with seven home runs in 92 plate appearances. In February, Belt described talks with the Giants as “preliminary.” The price has probably gone up since then.
A.J. Pollock, Diamondbacks. Pollock owed much of his value last year to defense, and with one year of service under his belt there’s no reason to rush to lock him up.
Jed Lowrie, Athletics. 2013 was Lowrie’s first full, healthy season, and now he’s in his contract year. The 30-year-old will be well-compensated if he posts another healthy campaign, more so if his stellar 2014 walk rate holds up to some degree.
Chase Headley, Padres. Headley is also in his contract year. He had an MVP-caliber 2012 season, and while 2013 was good, it was a more defense-minded campaign. Headley has had extension talks with the Padres for years, but he appears headed to free agency.
Kyle Seager, Mariners. Seager has posted two strong seasons for the Mariners, but it’s possible a gap in perceived value exists due to his pronounced home/road splits.
Craig Gentry, Athletics. Gentry has generated a lot of value defensively and has been something short of a regular, so he remains year-to-year.
Jason Heyward, Braves. Like Desmond, Heyward signed a two-year deal that did not delay free agency. He was elite by WAR in 2012, but a top-five MVP finish always seem possible for the 24-year-old, and he hasn’t gotten there yet.
Jean Segura, Brewers. Segura’s breakout 2013 season led to extension talks, but agent Joe Klein told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, “With a guy this young, it’s hard to figure out what the right numbers would be.”
Todd Frazier, Reds. Frazier has posted a pair of solid seasons, but the Reds aren’t jumping to extend him after a .234/.314/.407 offensive line in 2013.
Welington Castillo, Cubs. As a player with one good year, the Cubs can afford to wait to see if Castillo is their catcher of the future.
Mark Trumbo, Diamondbacks. Trumbo may be year-to-year on account of being a one-dimensional player, though consistent power typically gets paid.
There are 10 more players who were worth 2.0-2.5 wins in 2013 and have not signed extensions. Some, like Juan Lagares and Gregor Blanco, haven’t established themselves as regulars. Players like Leonys Martin, Brian Dozier, Josh Reddick, and Chris Johnson haven’t had extended success. Others are good but not spectacular, like second basemen Neil Walker and Daniel Murphy.

Boras is a big reason many of the game’s best young position players don’t give up free agent years. The other reasons are varied, with late bloomers, players affected by injury, inconsistent performers, and players who have short track records. While it may not fit the narrative of baseball’s growing extension trend, one overarching theme may be that most of the game’s best young position players still prefer to avoid leaving money on the table to acquire long-term security.

Data from FanGraphs was used for this post. If you’d like to explore this topic further, check out MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. Please note: Yasiel Puig was omitted due to the special circumstances with his seven-year contract.

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