Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Rangers, Bichette, White Sox, Jordan Walker
Today's mailbag gets into possible offensive additions for the Rangers, Bo Bichette trade scenarios, the White Sox and the record books, requiring starters to go six innings, Jordan Walker's future, and much more.
Kevin asks:
Do you see the Rangers getting a DH/ outfielder that hits for power?
Evan Carter was the Rangers' starting left fielder entering the season, but he struggled to hit and his season ended in May with a back injury. Carter is only 22 years old and went into this season as one of the game's best prospects. He'll have to re-establish himself a bit but I assume the Rangers will generally keep a spot open for him.
Carter could play center field, which was manned by Leody Taveras this year. Taveras fits better in a fourth outfielder role. But making Carter your starting center fielder coming off a serious back injury and without having proven himself as a big league hitter would be a risky plan.
Carter is something of a question mark, but then there's Adolis Garcia. Garcia, 32 in March, is under contract for $9.25MM in 2025 and then potentially under control for 2026 as an arbitration-eligible player. Garcia was an All-Star from 2021-23 before a lost '24. Garcia's 2024 season has gone like this: insane in April, basically unplayable from May through July, and then about league average since August. Do you trade him at a low point? The bounceback potential is lower for a guy who will be turning 32.
Much-hyped rookie Wyatt Langford has logged 25 games at DH plus 729 innings in the outfield (mostly left). 23 in November, Langford has held his own with a league average bat, flashing star potential in June as well as over the last 10 days or so. His likely home is left field.
The '23 Rangers saw big power from Carter (briefly), Corey Seager, Garcia, Mitch Garver, Marcus Semien, and Josh Jung. Seager and Jung have continued to show pretty good power, and Langford certainly could next year. Carter and Garcia are unknowns, with Semien joining them and not necessarily expected to bounce back at age 34. The Rangers also don't get much pop at first base in Nathaniel Lowe.
A center fielder who can hit would fit better than a corner guy, but good luck finding one. Luis Robert should be available, but he's coming off a Garcia-like season himself. Cody Bellinger could fit on the Rangers position-wise, but he's posted a 105 wRC+ this season. Bellinger's contract makes him hard to trade, as he'll make $27.5MM in '25 with a $25MM player option and $5MM buyout for '26 (assuming he doesn't opt out this winter).
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Soto, Bichette, Tigers, Cardinals
In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.
Jason asks:
Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?
Bob asks:
I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.
I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?
No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.
I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago. Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season. I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has. But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.
At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about. After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction. We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market. We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.
Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age. He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%. So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Ray
In today's mailbag, we get into the Nationals' needs, the Cardinals' situations with Nolans Arenado and Gorman, how the Cubs might approach the offseason, whether Robbie Ray will opt out, and much more.
Kevin asks:
The Nats have a lot of talented youngsters ready to join the team but opening the window will require some veterans. Should they: Make us whole and try to sign Juan Soto, use that money to hire two or three solid veterans, or try several shorter term contracts because the window will really first open in 2026?
Soto returning to the Nats is an intriguing idea. A lot of the best free agent signings have been for young superstars, though it's unclear whether the Nationals would offer even more than the $440MM Soto turned down two years ago. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has said he made three offers to Soto within a year, and none of them were countered. Since then, the Lerners decided not to sell the Nationals, so you could say there's more certainty with ownership.
One question is whether the Lerners will return to the days of a top-ten payroll. I don't know the answer to that, but they have almost nothing on the books after this year aside from the Stephen Strasburg contract.
As it relates to Soto, it's worth asking whether the Nationals committing to an outfielder is a good use of resources. A Hall of Fame talent like Soto would be a great addition to any team, but if James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Robert Hassell III all become productive Major League outfielders as the Nationals expect, something would have to give.
Here's a look around the diamond to assess what the Nats might need:
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
BetterHelp 101: Understanding Online Therapy And How To Find Support (Sponsored)
This is a sponsored post from BetterHelp. As a BetterHelp affiliate, MLB Trade Rumors receives compensation from BetterHelp if you purchase products or services through the links provided.
As society’s knowledge of mental health grows, more treatment opportunities are available to a more significant number of people living with mental health challenges. One such option is online therapy, which allows individuals to receive mental health support from a device with an internet connection from any location.
What Is BetterHelp?
BetterHelp is an online therapy platform that works with a database of over 30,000 counselors, therapists, social workers, and psychologists from all 50 US states and some countries worldwide. This platform aims to break down barriers that often keep people from seeking help, such as financial burdens, a rural location with limited options for therapy, or a lack of accessibility in one’s area.
Understanding BetterHelp
BetterHelp may work differently than meeting with a traditional therapist. Below are some ways individuals can use online therapy via this service.
Signing Up
Signing up for BetterHelp often takes a few minutes. The initial sign-up process is a questionnaire which asks prospective clients about the following:
- Reasons for seeking therapy and goals
- The individual’s diagnosis or mental health challenge
- Therapist gender preferences
- Whether they’d like to meet with an LGBTQ+, Black, or Asian therapist
- Preferences for individual, couples, or teen therapy
- Gender, age, sexuality (optional), pronouns, and relationship status
- Spiritual identity
- Past experience in therapy
- Intimacy challenges
- Substance use habits
After filling out the questionnaire, which may take around five to ten minutes, prospective clients will be directed to fill out their name, email, and password. Then, they will be sent to the payment page, where they can choose a plan. After the payment has been processed, it often takes around 48 hours for a therapist to be matched with them.
Payment
BetterHelp plans are charged monthly for four weeks of therapy. The overall monthly cost covers four sessions with the therapist (one per week) and access to all of BetterHelp’s other resources, such as support groups and classes. Cost ranges from $65 to $100 per week, which can be more affordable than traditional therapy.
The match process
Therapists are matched with clients based on the client’s responses to the questionnaire upon signing up. The only limitation is that a therapist must be licensed to practice in the state the client lives in to be able to work with them. Clients can change providers at any time for any reason.
Using the platform
Individuals can log in through the app or website to use the BetterHelp platform. There, they can find their messages with their therapist, a journaling feature, options to schedule appointments, and extra resources. Through the settings section, clients can check their billing information, change their therapist, and edit their profile. Weekly sessions with a therapist can be held via phone, video, or live chat, all through the app or website.
Extra resources
BetterHelp offers resources that might not be offered by in-person providers, such as the following:
- Weekly support groups
- Online classes by mental health experts
- Goal tracking options
- Journaling and journal prompts
- Worksheets
All features are included in the platform’s weekly price, so clients can access them without paying extra.
BetterHelp’s outreach
BetterHelp works with the broader community to offer support to non-profit organizations and individuals in need. They have given over 65 million dollars in discounts and financial aid to cover therapy for low-income individuals and donated over 95,000 months of free therapy to communities in need. BetterHelp partners with over 100 non-profit organizations.
Who might benefit from an online therapy platform?
Online therapy is often more flexible and convenient than in-person options. This option might benefit people with a busy schedule, such as parents, full-time workers, and athletes, who may not have the time to commute to an extra appointment. Many of the most evidence-based modalities, such as cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and dialectical behavior therapy (DBT), are available online.
Is online therapy effective?
Since 2021, four out of ten US adults have used this option. One study reported that over 71% of participants believed it was more effective than face-to-face therapy. Another study found that online therapy often led to increased quality of life for clients with anxiety and depression and was more affordable.
Takeaway
By seeking support online, financial, locational, and accessibility barriers can be removed, allowing more people to receive the support they seek. To get started, consider working with a platform like BetterHelp.
Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Waivers, Gleyber, Goldschmidt
This week's mailbag gets into possible waiver contract dumping, Gleyber Torres' free agency, teams' interest in Trevor Rogers, the Cardinals re-signing Paul Goldschmidt, and much more.
Ben asks:
What teams might we expect to see make some last minute, financially-motivated maneuvers to avoid the consequences of the luxury tax? Do you anticipate any notable players being placed on waivers, such as when Lucas Giolito and Matt Moore were made available last August? Which teams would be in prime position to take advantage of this system?
Joseph asks:
You guys recently did a piece on how players could move post-deadline. Could you envision a scenario where a taxpayer like the Giants fall out of the wild-card race then put a bunch of expensive pending free agents (like Snell or Conforto) on waivers to dump salary in an attempt to duck under the CBT? I remember that happening forever ago with the Angels and Vernon Wells, but never with a star player playing really well like Snell. How crazy would that be for an impact player to get claimed on waivers and influence the playoff race?
Since competitive balance tax penalties are compounding up to the third consecutive time a team goes over, there's benefit to "resetting" and getting under the base tax rate so you can become a first-time payor in 2025. Doing so requires dipping under $237MM this year. Failing that, it's still beneficial to avoid going over the second surcharge threshold of $277MM, which triggers your highest available draft pick moving back ten spots.
Additionally, CBT payor status affects the mechanics of losing or signing a qualified free agent.
The Rangers have a case. Cot's Baseball Contracts has their projected CBT payroll at about $251MM, and they paid the luxury tax last year. If the Rangers were to fall further out, they could put impending free agents such as Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Kirby Yates, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly on waivers. Though such a scheme could benefit the Rangers, it's possible it could rankle these veteran players, particularly if it serves as an end-run around Scherzer's no-trade rights. It may be a moot point, as he's on the IL at present, but this could become an option if Scherzer is healthy and actually wants to finish the season with a contender. The Rangers are five games out in the AL West at the moment.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Support MLBTR’s Writers
Today marked our 19th trade deadline here at MLB Trade Rumors. Many of you have been loyal readers since the beginning and have seen how this operation has grown and improved. During the most frenzied period today, all seven MLBTR writers were on at the same time, writing up trades.
MLBTR largely remains free and ad-supported; that will be the case with all the posts our team writes today. You may have seen that we’ve been writing additional analysis/opinion-based articles for the last four years, as part of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package.
Trade Rumors Front Office generally includes exclusive weekly MLB articles from me, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco. Anthony holds subscriber-only live chats on Fridays as well. We also include a fantasy baseball component, led by the excellent Nicklaus Gaut.
But wait, there’s more! We’ve also created a GM-caliber MLB contract tracker tool and agency database, which you can learn more about here. That’s included with a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.
On top of all that, a Front Office subscription removes all ads from the website and our app. So for $29.89 per year, you’re getting exclusive articles, chats, and tools, while removing ads and supporting our team directly. If you’re still not convinced, check out a ton of real testimonials from current subscribers here. Sign up for Trade Rumors Front Office today!