Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Soto, Bichette, Tigers, Cardinals
In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.
Jason asks:
Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?
Bob asks:
I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.
I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?
No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.
I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago. Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season. I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has. But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.
At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about. After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction. We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market. We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.
Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age. He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%. So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Ray
In today's mailbag, we get into the Nationals' needs, the Cardinals' situations with Nolans Arenado and Gorman, how the Cubs might approach the offseason, whether Robbie Ray will opt out, and much more.
Kevin asks:
The Nats have a lot of talented youngsters ready to join the team but opening the window will require some veterans. Should they: Make us whole and try to sign Juan Soto, use that money to hire two or three solid veterans, or try several shorter term contracts because the window will really first open in 2026?
Soto returning to the Nats is an intriguing idea. A lot of the best free agent signings have been for young superstars, though it's unclear whether the Nationals would offer even more than the $440MM Soto turned down two years ago. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has said he made three offers to Soto within a year, and none of them were countered. Since then, the Lerners decided not to sell the Nationals, so you could say there's more certainty with ownership.
One question is whether the Lerners will return to the days of a top-ten payroll. I don't know the answer to that, but they have almost nothing on the books after this year aside from the Stephen Strasburg contract.
As it relates to Soto, it's worth asking whether the Nationals committing to an outfielder is a good use of resources. A Hall of Fame talent like Soto would be a great addition to any team, but if James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Robert Hassell III all become productive Major League outfielders as the Nationals expect, something would have to give.
Here's a look around the diamond to assess what the Nats might need:
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BetterHelp 101: Understanding Online Therapy And How To Find Support (Sponsored)
This is a sponsored post from BetterHelp. As a BetterHelp affiliate, MLB Trade Rumors receives compensation from BetterHelp if you purchase products or services through the links provided.
As society’s knowledge of mental health grows, more treatment opportunities are available to a more significant number of people living with mental health challenges. One such option is online therapy, which allows individuals to receive mental health support from a device with an internet connection from any location.
What Is BetterHelp?
BetterHelp is an online therapy platform that works with a database of over 30,000 counselors, therapists, social workers, and psychologists from all 50 US states and some countries worldwide. This platform aims to break down barriers that often keep people from seeking help, such as financial burdens, a rural location with limited options for therapy, or a lack of accessibility in one’s area.
Understanding BetterHelp
BetterHelp may work differently than meeting with a traditional therapist. Below are some ways individuals can use online therapy via this service.
Signing Up
Signing up for BetterHelp often takes a few minutes. The initial sign-up process is a questionnaire which asks prospective clients about the following:
- Reasons for seeking therapy and goals
- The individual’s diagnosis or mental health challenge
- Therapist gender preferences
- Whether they’d like to meet with an LGBTQ+, Black, or Asian therapist
- Preferences for individual, couples, or teen therapy
- Gender, age, sexuality (optional), pronouns, and relationship status
- Spiritual identity
- Past experience in therapy
- Intimacy challenges
- Substance use habits
After filling out the questionnaire, which may take around five to ten minutes, prospective clients will be directed to fill out their name, email, and password. Then, they will be sent to the payment page, where they can choose a plan. After the payment has been processed, it often takes around 48 hours for a therapist to be matched with them.
Payment
BetterHelp plans are charged monthly for four weeks of therapy. The overall monthly cost covers four sessions with the therapist (one per week) and access to all of BetterHelp’s other resources, such as support groups and classes. Cost ranges from $65 to $100 per week, which can be more affordable than traditional therapy.
The match process
Therapists are matched with clients based on the client’s responses to the questionnaire upon signing up. The only limitation is that a therapist must be licensed to practice in the state the client lives in to be able to work with them. Clients can change providers at any time for any reason.
Using the platform
Individuals can log in through the app or website to use the BetterHelp platform. There, they can find their messages with their therapist, a journaling feature, options to schedule appointments, and extra resources. Through the settings section, clients can check their billing information, change their therapist, and edit their profile. Weekly sessions with a therapist can be held via phone, video, or live chat, all through the app or website.
Extra resources
BetterHelp offers resources that might not be offered by in-person providers, such as the following:
- Weekly support groups
- Online classes by mental health experts
- Goal tracking options
- Journaling and journal prompts
- Worksheets
All features are included in the platform’s weekly price, so clients can access them without paying extra.
BetterHelp’s outreach
BetterHelp works with the broader community to offer support to non-profit organizations and individuals in need. They have given over 65 million dollars in discounts and financial aid to cover therapy for low-income individuals and donated over 95,000 months of free therapy to communities in need. BetterHelp partners with over 100 non-profit organizations.
Who might benefit from an online therapy platform?
Online therapy is often more flexible and convenient than in-person options. This option might benefit people with a busy schedule, such as parents, full-time workers, and athletes, who may not have the time to commute to an extra appointment. Many of the most evidence-based modalities, such as cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and dialectical behavior therapy (DBT), are available online.
Is online therapy effective?
Since 2021, four out of ten US adults have used this option. One study reported that over 71% of participants believed it was more effective than face-to-face therapy. Another study found that online therapy often led to increased quality of life for clients with anxiety and depression and was more affordable.
Takeaway
By seeking support online, financial, locational, and accessibility barriers can be removed, allowing more people to receive the support they seek. To get started, consider working with a platform like BetterHelp.
Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Waivers, Gleyber, Goldschmidt
This week's mailbag gets into possible waiver contract dumping, Gleyber Torres' free agency, teams' interest in Trevor Rogers, the Cardinals re-signing Paul Goldschmidt, and much more.
Ben asks:
What teams might we expect to see make some last minute, financially-motivated maneuvers to avoid the consequences of the luxury tax? Do you anticipate any notable players being placed on waivers, such as when Lucas Giolito and Matt Moore were made available last August? Which teams would be in prime position to take advantage of this system?
Joseph asks:
You guys recently did a piece on how players could move post-deadline. Could you envision a scenario where a taxpayer like the Giants fall out of the wild-card race then put a bunch of expensive pending free agents (like Snell or Conforto) on waivers to dump salary in an attempt to duck under the CBT? I remember that happening forever ago with the Angels and Vernon Wells, but never with a star player playing really well like Snell. How crazy would that be for an impact player to get claimed on waivers and influence the playoff race?
Since competitive balance tax penalties are compounding up to the third consecutive time a team goes over, there's benefit to "resetting" and getting under the base tax rate so you can become a first-time payor in 2025. Doing so requires dipping under $237MM this year. Failing that, it's still beneficial to avoid going over the second surcharge threshold of $277MM, which triggers your highest available draft pick moving back ten spots.
Additionally, CBT payor status affects the mechanics of losing or signing a qualified free agent.
The Rangers have a case. Cot's Baseball Contracts has their projected CBT payroll at about $251MM, and they paid the luxury tax last year. If the Rangers were to fall further out, they could put impending free agents such as Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Kirby Yates, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly on waivers. Though such a scheme could benefit the Rangers, it's possible it could rankle these veteran players, particularly if it serves as an end-run around Scherzer's no-trade rights. It may be a moot point, as he's on the IL at present, but this could become an option if Scherzer is healthy and actually wants to finish the season with a contender. The Rangers are five games out in the AL West at the moment.
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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Support MLBTR’s Writers
Today marked our 19th trade deadline here at MLB Trade Rumors. Many of you have been loyal readers since the beginning and have seen how this operation has grown and improved. During the most frenzied period today, all seven MLBTR writers were on at the same time, writing up trades.
MLBTR largely remains free and ad-supported; that will be the case with all the posts our team writes today. You may have seen that we’ve been writing additional analysis/opinion-based articles for the last four years, as part of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package.
Trade Rumors Front Office generally includes exclusive weekly MLB articles from me, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco. Anthony holds subscriber-only live chats on Fridays as well. We also include a fantasy baseball component, led by the excellent Nicklaus Gaut.
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Dodgers Acquire Jack Flaherty
The Dodgers and Tigers are in agreement on a trade sending right-hander Jack Flaherty to Los Angeles, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. The Tigers will receive catcher/first baseman Thayron Liranzo and shortstop Trey Sweeney, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. The Dodgers have now officially announced the trade.
After much speculation, the Dodgers add the best pitcher to be traded at the 2024 deadline. Flaherty, 29 in October, sports a 2.95 ERA in 18 starts this year. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, his 32 K% ranks fifth in all of baseball. He’s also trimmed his walk rate to a career-best 4.6%.
A first-round pick by the Cardinals out of high school a decade ago, Flaherty earned a fifth-place Rookie of the Year finish in 2018. He followed that up by finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2019, capped by a run of 16 starts in which he had a 0.93 ERA.
After stumbling in the shortened COVID season, Flaherty was limited to 78 1/3 innings in 2021 due to oblique and shoulder strains. The shoulder issues persisted into 2022, a season in which Flaherty pitched just 36 innings.
Flaherty avoided the IL last year, but was ineffective for the Cardinals and was shipped to the Orioles in a deadline trade. His struggles in Baltimore were enough that the club moved him to the bullpen before the end of the season.
Seeking to rebuild his value and re-enter free agency, Flaherty inked a one-year, $14MM deal with the Tigers last December. He missed a few starts due to back pain, but otherwise Flaherty has been an ace for the Tigers. At seven games out in the wild card, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris opted for a pair of prospects from the Dodgers rather than a qualifying offer and draft pick compensation.
With Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the IL for a triceps injury, the Dodgers sought a front of the rotation arm to pair with Tyler Glasnow. They may have it in Flaherty, and the club also saw Clayton Kershaw make his season debut last week. Righty Gavin Stone, who opened the season as the Dodgers’ fifth starter, has been a mainstay all year. Yamamoto may yet return, while Walker Buehler is currently on a rehab assignment for hip inflammation. Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Emmet Sheehan are all out for the season, pushing rookies Justin Wrobleski and River Ryan into the Dodgers’ rotation. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman shipped veteran starter James Paxton to the Red Sox last week.
The Dodgers, who also added Kevin Kiermaier, Amed Rosario, Tommy Edman, and Michael Kopech in recent trades, sought an impact arm this month and were also linked to Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. Crochet, who was not ultimately traded, would’ve fit better with the Dodgers’ hefty payroll, but his October availability was in question. Flaherty has about $4.67MM left on his contract this year, on which the Dodgers will pay a 110% tax.
The Dodgers had three prospects on Baseball America’s recent top 100 list, and none of them were required to rent Flaherty from the Tigers for the remainder of the season.
Liranzo, 21, has split his time between catcher and first base for the High-A Great Lakes Loons this year. He’s got a 106 wRC+ in 314 plate appearances this year after raking in A-ball last year. Liranzo represented the Dodgers at the Futures Game earlier this month. MLB.com assigned Liranzo a 50 grade, calling him “one of the best young catching prospects in baseball.” Prior to the season, Baseball America also assigned a 50 grade to the switch-hitting Liranzo, saying he “projects to be an average defender overall” with above-average power and a below-average hit tool.
Sweeney, 24, was drafted 20th overall by the Yankees back in 2021 and was sent to the Dodgers last December in a deal for reliever Victor Gonzalez. As Oklahoma City’s shortstop, Sweeney has an 87 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this year. MLB.com gave him a 45 grade, noting that he has “stayed at shortstop longer than most scouts expected.” BA also put a 45 on Sweeney prior to the season, saying he “has the ceiling of a second-division shortstop.”
Projecting prospects is tricky business, which is why I defer to the experts. But compared to the returns for Trevor Rogers and Yusei Kikuchi, the Tigers’ side of this trade feels underwhelming. At any rate, the first-place Dodgers have significantly bolstered their rotation as they look to return to the World Series for the first time in four years.
The Tigers’ rotation now features little beyond Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal, with Reese Olson on the IL with a shoulder injury. The Tigers seemingly never got close to trading Skubal, though they did move veterans Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly along with Flaherty in the last two days.