In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.
Jason asks:
Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?
Bob asks:
I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.
I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?
No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.
I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago. Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season. I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has. But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.
At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about. After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction. We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market. We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.
Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age. He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%. So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
If you can get Soto for ONLY 12-years after this year, knowing what he turned down (reportedly) from WSH a few years ago, then you do it. LAD/NYY have advantages that others do not where they can afford to overpay and have larger revenue streams via their networks, merch sales, marketing, ticket sales that many other teams may have, but aren’t nearly as developed and necessary to the team’s financial well-being. Soto has already shown what he can do in pinstripes and when you also factor in how his presence will affect Judge (as we’re seeing…), NYY SHOULD be the top bidder in present-day dollars.
I just wonder if LAD will come up with a $800M deal (to be paid through 2088), with his final paycheck to be given to his next of kin by the great, great granchildren of Kirk Gibson celebrating their centennial championship.
Cohen will not be outbid for Soto. The only way Soto isn’t a Met next year is if he doesn’t want to play there
The Yankees are a bigger media draw and Soto seems to love the limelight. I think that if the money is close he goes back to the Yankees.
@Not the real Sports Pope
He looks good in pinstripes but would also look good in a blue and white Dodger uniform along side Betts, Ohtani and Freeman. I can’t imagine him wanting to wear orange and blue for a 0.500 team.
You can’t ever count the dodgers out on anyone or anything however their focus going into next year should be on pitching
The Harper situation was interesting. I really dont know why more teams were not in on him. Sure he got a lot of years but that AAV isn’t squat compared to what some guys have got since then. I believe the Cardinals were interested but probably got tired of Boras and his games and then pivoted to Goldschmidt.
At that time, Bryce Harper didn’t act like the Bryce Harper today. I can’t describe it but something about him was off putting.
I hear you and that’s partly why I think he’s been a good fit in Philly. That area has a personality all to it’s own. I kinda wish the Cardinals went after him but Goldschmidt has been pretty good short of this year. And Harper’s deal has many years to go.
Harper learned how to pander to the media in Philly
At that point, everything about Harper was off-putting. Now he’s developed into one of the best leaders in baseball.
But as much as I like him, I think it is only fair to point out that he’s missed a ton of games to injuries.
If one believes the stories from the time, the Dodgers offered Harper a very high AAV 3 year contract, 4 yr $180m or something like that. They were in on him, but not in a way that could drive up the Phillies offer. If one trusts Lux’s emergence, the Dodgers are already LH heavy and I doubt they will be a factor in Soto’s market.
Because Soto can’t hit lefties and should be platooned?
Some basics to start.
Soto is going into his age 26 season in 2025. He doesn’t turn 26 until late October.
Soto is making $31 million this season in his final year of arbitration and will be due for a raise after putting up the best season of his career so far.
My prediction – 14 years/$540-600 million.
That is $38.57 – $42.85 million AAV.
Soto will likely start by asking for more than the $43.33 million AAV that Scherzer and Verlander are signed for now.
He will get certainly get more than Rendon and Correa on an AAV ($35 million) and likely get less than Ohtani ($46.3 million in today’s $$$ adjusted for deferrals).
Yes, Correa got $35.1 million on a 3 year deal for 2022-2023 and then opted out after the first year and got a new 6 year deal at $33.33 million AAV starting in 2023.
Most likely is that Soto, who will be going into his age 26 season in 2025, will get an AAV very close to what Judge, who was going into his age 32 season in 2024, got in free agency or $40 million AAV.
Judge’s platform year was 10.5 WAR in 2023
Rendon’s platform year was 7.1 WAR in 2019
Correa’s platform year was MLB high 7.2 WAR in 2021
Ohtani’s platform year was 10.5 WAR combined batting and pitching
Soto is at 7.4 WAR today and is on pace for 9.0 WAR.
WAR is a counting stat so the more he plays, the higher his possible WAR.
There will be little to no deferred money because Soto makes practically nothing comparatively (just under $3 million) in endorsement and sponsorship money while Ohtani made $30+ million worldwide in 2023.
“There will be little to no deferred money”…The market will have something to say about that. I’m guessing there’s only 3 or 4 teams that will be bidding on Soto and of those 4 two are probably already over the cap. I don’t believe an over the cap(or near the cap)team will be (seriously)in the bidding for Soto. Soto’s last 2 teams(WA, S.D) are doing even better without him.
Lol, they are doing better without him but not because of him not being part of the team.
Washington got a WS with him, just saying, are they going to the playoffs this year? Haters gonna hate.
No. The player will have something to say about it. He made it clear that he will not accept large amounts of deferred money. Period Conversation over.
I think you are pretty close. The length of the deal will be 14 or 15 years and there is no way he signs for less AAV than what Rendon or Correa got.
He’s making $31MM now and does deserve a raise, for his prime seasons, and then declining salaries as he ages. For $31MM per, he should be among the finalists for MVP. For anything higher, there should be penalties/deductions for not winning the award. Minus $10MM for not being the top ten.
Cardinals have ongoing player development issues. Free Jordan Walker.
Depending on the amount, I’d still be intrigued with a team giving Corbin a spot as their 5th starter. He still drops the odd good start in and just might need a change of scenery to be more of a legit option.
Corbin has not been good for years. He’s more a 6th or 7th starter now.
On what planet?
He still generates ground balls at a well above average rate. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a new team turn him into a serviceable depth option. There’ll be some rebuilder that gives him a chance with no risk whatsoever.
He doesn’t get outs, and he is paid extremely well. Too high to be as bad as he’s been. But thank GOODNESS he can spin a baseball. Maybe he can join the carnival.
He is still on a rebuilding team.
Lowest era the last 4 years is 5.20. Lowest WHIP the last 4 years is 1.468. Best era plus is 82. Also gets paid very well. Yet you call him serviceable. On what planet?
Obviously not in Washington he hasn’t been serviceable. I never said that. But I think with a change of scenery and his ground ball tendencies, there’s at least a small no risk chance that he can turn into a serviceable back end starter. I just watched him dominate the Yankees lineup like the article states and saw how that could happen. Again it’s probably unlikely but there are reasons why a team will give him a shot with no risk whatsoever.
And the “Patrick Corbin is actually good” hill is not the one I’m willing to die on but he has gone 5 innings with 3 ER or less 14 times this year. His blowups have been absolutely horrible but that’s where I’m getting at with the serviceable option for a pitching needy team next year. Not really worth arguing one way or the other anyways. He’s just pitching depth at this point.
You watched one game against a Yankees team with 5 hitters under a .690 OPS and that was enough to toss out 4 years worth of bad pitching? What would have happened had the game taken place in New York instead of Washington? Will you still use the excuse that he needs a change of scenery narrative? How many more years of getting blasted do you need to be convinced that he’s just not that guy anymore? You say he generates ground balls and yet he still can’t keep runs off the board.
There’s a certain irony, if the Yankees re-sign Soto, to having Stanton’s old contract, Judge’s $40K per year, and whatever Soto gets paid, all on the same payroll. Throw in the bargain Cole contract..
I don’t think Hal will go to extremes for Soto. TBH I’m ok with that. Judge is going to have to move back to right field in the next year. Two at the most. Unless they move Judge to first but I don’t know that that’s happening either. I like Soto a lot but I think the money is better spent elsewhere.
I don’t see how the Yankees could give Soto a higher AAV than Judge. Judge is a better player and the face of the franchise. It would be insulting to pay Soto more.
I agree with Joe. The Yankees would be better off spending the money elswhere.
Soto damn near hitting free agency at the same age Judge debuted might be enough of a point for Judge to realize Soto bringe something to the table that he doesn’t.
Don – It would be easy to get around that.
They could do the same thing the Padres did with Xander, give Soto a few extra years to lower the AAV below Judge’s. It would also help with CBT flexibility.
Jeter. A-rod. Bueller? Anyone?
FPG I hope they’ve had their fill of doing that with guys like DJLM. Tacking on those extra years tends to backfire.
Joe – How is it any worse if the total contract amount is the same? It’s just a different allocation.
At the time of the contract DJL was worth $22.5M annually for four years.
Instead they spread it $15M annually for six years.
If he earns the entire contract during the first four years, what difference does it make if they cut him in Year 5?
It’s backfiring only because the Yankees refuse to cut him loose.
Ferris?
FPG but that’s just it. Teams that are paying these guys millions of dollars don’t want to just cut a player loose. It’s easy for us to say he should be DFAd but a whole nother story for the people paying his salary.
Joe – Agreed. Kinda seems like the Yankees forgot the reason why they gave him the extra two years.
And why are talking about Patrick Corbin he’s washed up and shouldn’t have gotten the contract he did. I don’t think a lot of teams out there are concerned about fixing a mid 30’s under performing pitcher for the last 5 years
Then there was Stephen Strasburg.
Soto’s contract will be a disaster for even more than 300.
Bad defense
His age is questionable
Plays in a little league field this year
Has made many statements that he doesn’t hate trump
Why will the angels be in the playoffs in 2025?
Because they are not going to trade their closer (Joyce) or whoever ends up being their 8th inning guy.
When they traded estevez and Garcia, they threw the towel in.
They were only 8 back.
Note: a Tony Gwynn baseball card appeared in my car a week ago.
This most likely is a sign that the padres will win their first World Series in 2024.
I have a feeling the Giants are going to be hot and heavy in the bidding for him only to be used to drive up the costs for him, which I’m ok with. Giants could use some star power though.
With the Bally’s TV contract still in question, and what is assured to be a downturn in season ticket sales, the Cardinals will lower payroll and will have to play the kids. I could see a trade or 2 blowing things up, but I think the lineup below is pretty much what they will run out there.
C Contreras
C Pages/Herrera
1B Burleson
1B Baker
2B/OF Donovan
2B Gorman
SS Winn
3B Arenando
UTIL Saggesse
OF Nootbaar
OF Siani
OF Scott
OF Walker
SP Gray
SP Mikolas
SP Gibson
SP Pallante
SP McGreevy/Matthews/Hence
RP Graceffo
RP Liberatore
RP King
RP Romero
RP O’Brien
RP Fernandez
RP Middleton
RP Helsley
Someone is worried about signing Soto to a 12 year deal cause they aren’t sure how he’ll look in year 12?
Did I read that question right?