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Retirement Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | January 30, 2012 at 9:20am CDT

Jorge Posada, Orlando Cabrera, Craig Counsell, and Adam Everett retired this offseason, as MLBTR's free agent tracker shows.  Which other unsigned free agents may be leaning toward calling it a career?

  • Milton Bradley: The Mariners released him on May 16th, and we haven't heard anything since aside from off-the-field issues.  I've heard that while he has not retired, as of now it does not look like Bradley will play in 2012.
  • J.D. Drew: About a week ago, Jon Heyman wrote that Drew is "very likely to retire."
  • Jason Kendall: In July, we learned that Kendall was out of the picture for 2012 after re-tearing two tendons in his right rotator cuff.  Kendall's career might be over, wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe at the time.
  • Derrek Lee: This month Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested a kind of "forced retirement" is possible for Lee, who has reportedly been picky so far this offseason.
  • Jason Varitek: The catcher is mulling retirement, wrote Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald this month.
  • Javier Vazquez: Reports this month continue to indicate that Vazquez will retire.  The 35-year-old would be finishing on a high note.
  • Tim Wakefield: He told John A. Torres of Florida Today that retirement is possible, though the knuckleballer hopes to return to the Red Sox.
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Garber: “No Chance” Of Oswalt Relieving

By Tim Dierkes | January 28, 2012 at 9:55am CDT

There is "no chance" of Roy Oswalt relieving, agent Bob Garber told MLBTR this morning.  "He will absolutely be a starter," according to the agent.

Other reports have indicated Oswalt is close to a deal with the Cardinals.  Garber would not comment on anything team-specific, but his stance about his client avoiding the bullpen implies that if the Cardinals are indeed the favorite, they'll have to trade a current starter or move one to relief.  The Cardinals' current rotation consists of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia, and Jake Westbrook.  There are no major physical issues with any of the five, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, although one has a minor, pre-existing condition.  Wainwright, who had Tommy John surgery in late February, is said by Strauss to be "bueno."  Lohse and Westbrook have full no-trade clauses.

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Uncategorized Roy Oswalt

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Introducing MLBTR’s Extension Tracker

By Tim Dierkes | January 27, 2012 at 3:06pm CDT

Contract extensions, especially for arbitration eligible players, are all about comparables.  Position and service time are a couple of major factors for which players are often compared.  This kind of research was previously a tall order for those not employed by a team or agency, but MLBTR's new extension tracker removes the hassle.

The extension tracker shows all contract extensions, whether they cover the player's arbitration years, free agent years, or both.   All the extensions are listed by date, and our filter button allows you to change the date range.  You can also filter by any combination of team, position, guaranteed years, amount in millions, number of options, service time, super two status, and agency.  The service time filtering allows you to choose one or both boundaries of a range.  Service time is denoted as years.days, so 4.148 means four years and 148 days.  A full year of service is 172 days.  The player name is hyperlinked to MLBTR's post on the story of the extension.

Please note that some of the data prior to 2011 is still in the process of being added, such as service time, position, and number of options.

The extension tracker can be found under the Tools menu in the navigation bar up top, along with our 2012 free agent tracker, arbitration tracker, agency database,  transaction tracker, and other features.

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Latest At RotoAuthority

By Tim Dierkes | January 25, 2012 at 3:02pm CDT

My fantasy baseball website RotoAuthority is back in action with a team of excellent writers.  The latest:

  • Catcher rankings by Mike Axisa.
  • Overrated starting pitchers from Tom Warman.
  • A look at the Yankees' fifth starter situation from Mark Polishuk.
  • The potential fantasy impact of Yu Darvish, from Alex Steers McCrum.
  • The Mets' Jonathon Niese is underrated and the Tigers' Justin Verlander is overrated in fantasy drafts, writes Dan Mennella.
  • The transcript of Thursday's chat with Steve Adams.
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Latest At RotoAuthority.com

By Tim Dierkes | January 18, 2012 at 3:16pm CDT

My six-year-old fantasy baseball website, RotoAuthority, re-launched this week, with a team of writers and tons of great content.  The latest:

  • Bullpen depth charts for all 30 teams by Tim Dierkes.
  • 7 Pitchers You Have To Draft, by Edwin Van Bibber-Orr.
  • Dan Mennella explains why Kenley Jansen is a sleeper and Michael Young is a bust.

 

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Rangers Close To Deal With Yu Darvish

By Tim Dierkes | January 18, 2012 at 2:05pm CDT

The Rangers have a 4pm central time deadline to sign Yu Darvish today.  If they fail to reach an agreement with agents Don Nomura and Arn Tellem, the $51,703,411 posting fee will not be paid to the Nippon Ham Fighters and Darvish will return to Japan for the 2012 season.  The latest:

  • The sides are closing in on a five-year deal with a player option for a sixth year, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
  • Darvish's agreement with the Rangers is expected to be for six years, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
  • The Rangers are close to a deal with Darvish, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  He elaborates that the Rangers and Darvish "are still working on details, but they are making good progress" with four hours remaining until the deadline.  The deal will get done, according to Jon Heyman's sources.
  • The Rangers are "cautiously optimistic that Darvish will be signed," reports Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
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Gerardo Concepcion Close To Free Agency

By Tim Dierkes | January 18, 2012 at 12:53pm CDT

18-year-old Cuban lefty Gerardo Concepcion has established residency in Mexico, agent Jaime Torres told Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportesLosAngeles.com.  He should be able to declare free agency and negotiate with Major League teams very soon.  The Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, White Sox, and Phillies are among the interested clubs, Rojas tweets.

Concepcion defected from Cuba during a tournament in the Netherlands last June, as did Aroldis Chapman.

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Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Texas Rangers Gerardo Concepcion

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Extension Candidate: Daniel Hudson

By Tim Dierkes | January 18, 2012 at 12:33pm CDT

The Diamondbacks' Daniel Hudson has a sweet resume for a starting pitcher with one year and 117 days of Major League service time.  He's already racked up 336 career innings (222 last year) and also has 25 wins and a 3.19 ERA.  What are his extension prospects?

Hudson

As I showed in my Madison Bumgarner post, pitchers with less than two years of service time don't get big bucks on extensions.  Hudson and Bumgarner currently have much better bodies of work than James Shields, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Anderson, and Wade Davis did, but they probably couldn't push the guaranteed money much past $15MM by signing now.  Instead, Hudson and Bumgarner may attempt to set a new standard for pitchers with between two and three years of service, one year from now.

The two-to-three record holder is Gio Gonzalez, who flew past the standard $30MM extension by getting a $42MM guarantee from the Nationals.  However, Gonzalez is not a good comparison for Hudson, as the former was a Super Two.  Hudson won't be.  The Proformance client will go to arbitration three times, beginning with the 2014 season.  

The typical 2+ pitcher extension is a four-year, $30MM deal, signed by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Yovani Gallardo, Trevor Cahill, and Ricky Romero.  These deals included one or two club options.  Hudson will match this group in service time after the 2012 season, but he already matches them in overall statistics.  Hudson already has more innings and wins than Gallardo did and more strikeouts than Lester or Cahill.  If Hudson reaches his 2012 Bill James projections, he'll have at least a 185 inning, 11 win, 141 strikeout, and significant ERA advantage over any of those 2+ peers.  Hudson and Bumgarner will likely be in a class by themselves, and if they sign extensions a year from now they ought to be able to raise the bar to $40MM over five years for non-Super Two 2+ pitchers.     

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

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2012 Extension Candidates Arizona Diamondbacks Daniel Hudson

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Red Sox Still Interested In Gavin Floyd

By Tim Dierkes | January 18, 2012 at 11:30am CDT

WEDNESDAY, 11:30am: The Red Sox are still showing interest in Floyd, tweets Morosi.

TUESDAY, 9:15am: We haven't heard a ton about righty Gavin Floyd lately, but the White Sox are still listening on the soon-to-be 29-year-old, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  White Sox GM Kenny Williams has traded Carlos Quentin, Sergio Santos, and Jason Frasor this winter, but he's held onto his starting pitching and even extended John Danks.

This winter top young starters Michael Pineda, Mat Latos, Gio Gonzalez, and Trevor Cahill have been traded, but all came with at least four years of team control.  Floyd and crosstown hurler Matt Garza are in the next tier along with Jair Jurrjens, with two years of control at higher prices.  Two years of Floyd will cost $16.5MM in salary plus prospects.  Floyd is capable of 30 starts and a sub-4.00 ERA, so he's still plenty valuable and may represent a more reasonable commitment than a four-year deal for Edwin Jackson.  The Yankees figure to be done rotation shopping, but the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Pirates are potential fits in my opinion.

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Hamels’ Agent: Weaver Contract Not A Parallel

By Tim Dierkes | January 18, 2012 at 9:43am CDT

Cole Hamels now owns the second-largest salary in arbitration history ($15MM), and he's not stopping there.  Agent John Boggs expects his client to be compensated as an "elite pitcher," and he doesn't consider Jered Weaver's team-friendly five-year, $85MM deal a factor.  Explained Boggs to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com:

"I don't think it's a parallel.  That contract is great for Jered. I understand it. But he took a different path and left a lot of money on the table. He came up through the Angels system and grew up in their backyard. He's pitching where he grew up. That situation appeals to him. It's a similar situation to when I had Tony Gwynn. Without getting into specifics of what we're looking for, the Weaver situation is unique to Weaver."

Weaver's contract covered his final arbitration year and then four free agent seasons at an average of $17.5MM.  Unlike Weaver, Hamels was a Super Two player, and the salary of his final arbitration year has already been determined.  Hamels' new contract will probably only cover free agent years.  Even if he doesn't reach the $23-24MM range of C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee, I think six years and $120MM is just a starting point for Hamels, who will turn 29 during the 2012-13 offseason.

The Phillies have first dibs.  According to Boggs, "When you're this close [to free-agency] you have mixed emotions.  But Cole has come through the Phillies organization, and if you asked him his preference, more than likely he'd want to remain with the Phillies. That's how it would be going into the negotiations, but every negotiation is different. Everything depends on our perceived value of what Cole is worth and what their perceived value of him is. That will dictate if a long-term deal gets done. We'll always give the Phillies every opportunity to secure him."

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