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Trade And Free Agent Market For Starting Pitchers

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The Braves, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, and Diamondbacks probably will not be in the market for starting pitching this offseason, but most other teams will be.  Here's how the market shapes up.

Top-Of-The-Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade

Yu Darvish is not technically a free agent, but any team will be able to bid for the exclusive rights to negotiate with him if the Nippon-Ham Fighters post him.  He may require a $100MM+ commitment, and would become the ace of many MLB staffs.  Regular free agents C.J. Wilson and Roy Oswalt would slot in as the #1 or #2 starter in several rotations.  All three have their share of question marks, but they're as close to aces as we've got.

The trade market for aces looks bleak or non-existent, if the Rays' James Shields is truly "very unlikely" to be dealt.  There is currently no reason to think Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, or Josh Beckett will be traded this offseason, though there's a surprise every year.

Middle-Of-The Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade

The free agent market features several starters who can slot in comfortably at #3: Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda,  and Javier Vazquez.  Erik Bedard and Bartolo Colon make solid #3s when healthy, while Hisashi Iwakuma could be worthy of the designation.

On the trade market, Gio Gonzalez and Jair Jurrjens can be considered third starters or even a little more.  With four more years of club control, the A's could having an asking price for Gonzalez exceeding that of Matt Garza last offseason.  If the A's are willing to discuss Gonzalez they may also listen on Brandon McCarthy.  Wandy Rodriguez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ricky Nolasco could be available as well.

Back-Of-The Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade

The free agent market offers known commodities Chris Capuano, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Freddy Garcia, Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm, Jason Marquis.  There are also many more with something to prove, like Rich Harden, Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Dontrelle Willis.  

John Lannan, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Homer Bailey, Brett Myers, Carlos Zambrano, Travis Wood, A.J. Burnett, and Edinson Volquez are speculative trade candidates.

Non-Tender Candidates

Joe Saunders, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Volstad, Ross Ohlendorf, Kevin Slowey, Jerome Williams, and Tom Gorzelanny have some chance of being non-tendered in December, so they may be presently available.  Jonathan Sanchez, a non-tender candidate for the Giants, was just traded to the Royals. 

Thinking Outside The Box

Last winter the Rangers were interested in signing Bobby Jenks as a starter, and a rotation opportunity motivated Aaron Heilman to sign with Arizona.  There are no obvious candidates to make the relief-rotation shift, but a few should pop up as the offseason progresses.

Royals Acquire Jonathan Sanchez For Melky Cabrera

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The Royals acquired lefty Jonathan Sanchez and minor league starter Ryan Verdugo from the Giants for outfielder Melky Cabrera, announced the team.

Sanchez, 28, may have been a non-tender candidate for the Giants after a disappointing 2011 season that saw him walk 5.9 per nine innings and miss significant time with biceps tendinitis and a sprained ankle.  The southpaw is tough to hit and has big-time strikeout numbers, but control has always been a problem.  In Sanchez, Felipe Paulino, and Danny Duffy, Royals GM Dayton Moore has strong strikeout potential for three-fifths of his 2012 rotation.  Sanchez projects to earn $5.2MM in 2012, after which he'll be eligible for free agency.  That he was traded for one year of Cabrera shows how much his trade value slipped during the '11 season.  Sanchez was set to battle Barry Zito for the Giants' fifth starter job next year.

Cabrera had the opposite experience in 2011, as he had a resurgence after being non-tendered and signing a $1.25MM free agent deal.  The 27-year-old hit .305/.339/.470 with 18 home runs in 706 plate appearances for the Royals, playing mostly center field.  UZR suggests he is a below-average defender there, though there seems a good chance the Giants continue to use him in center.  If so, Andres Torres could become expendable.  Cabrera is projected to earn $4.4MM in 2012, after which he'll be eligible for free agency.  With the deal, the Royals opened up center field for prospect Lorenzo Cain.  

Verdugo, a 24-year-old Double-A southpaw, went to Kansas City along with Sanchez in the deal.  Baseball America ranked him 25th among Giants prospects prior to the season, describing him as a deceptive lefty who misses bats but has minus command.  Verdugo was a starter in college and returned to that role last year. 

Rosenthal On Butler, Sizemore, Orioles

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The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • The Phillies have serious interest in free agent Michael Cuddyer, although Rosenthal is skeptical of them adding a player who turns 33 in March.  Rosenthal says other left fielders are in the mix, but none are ideal.  One player Rosenthal did not mention is Josh Willingham, who I can see the Phillies considering.  As for a splash at shortstop, Rosenthal says Jose Reyes' leg problems scare the Phillies.
  • The Orioles were desperate to find a new GM and Dan Duquette was desperate to be a GM again, writes Rosenthal.  A press conference is expected this week to announce Duquette's three-year deal.
  • The Royals view Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer as their 3-4 hitters long-term, so don't look for Butler on the trade market this winter.  The 25-year-old is potentially under team control through 2015 on an extension signed in January.
  • Rosenthal sees Grady Sizemore landing with a high-revenue team for an amount close to the $9MM option Cleveland passed on.  I'd be surprised if he tops $7MM guaranteed.  Sizemore's agent Joe Urbon said his client prefers to play center field, but is open to a corner spot.
  • The Orioles are trying to add pitching depth via the six-year minor league free agent market.  Here's the list of minor league free agents from Matt Eddy of Baseball America.
  • Rosenthal says to look for Ryne Sandberg to be promoted to Phillies bench coach of Pete Mackanin is hired by the Cubs or Red Sox.  He also thinks recently-fired Cubs manager Mike Quade would then be a possibility to manage the Phillies' Triple-A club.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers seems to be planning a quiet offseason, though the team must address second base and determine the future of Joe Saunders.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Diamondbacks pulled off the difficult worst-to-first feat this year.  Several different executives deserve credit for crafting the 2011 D'Backs, but GM Kevin Towers will continue to mold the club in his second offseason.  However, Towers is due for a relatively quiet winter, based on his October conversation with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

One area of need is second base, a position Towers shook up midseason by shipping the disappointing Kelly Johnson to Toronto for Hill and McDonald.  Hill's $8MM club option didn't make sense for the D'Backs, and while Towers declined it, the idea of offering Hill arbitration should give the GM pause.  The move would give the team a shot at a supplemental draft pick or the chance to have Hill back for around $6MM.  But since Hill's stellar 142 plate appearances for Arizona were preceded by over 1,000 mostly bad ones, even $6MM seems generous.  The idea of a second baseman worth three-to-four wins above replacement is tantalizing, and the D'Backs should be willing to commit $4MM in base salary to see if Hill can return to that level.

Towers has already addressed a couple of minor concerns, re-signing backups Blanco and McDonald for a total of $4.2MM.  The D'Backs moved quickly on McDonald after Bloomquist declined his side of a mutual option, prompting agent Scott Boras to suggest, "They got upset when Willie opted out. They got emotional and they went out and signed a guy who hit .169."  McDonald was a better fit, though, as a superior shortstop who can handle the assignment if Stephen Drew is not ready for Opening Day after July ankle surgery.

There's no trade market for a $9MM, mid-4s ERA southpaw, as the Pirates' inability to find a suitor for Paul Maholm attests. The D'Backs have a similar predicament with Saunders, whom they may non-tender by December 12th if they can't find a trade partner.  Saunders is more of an innings eater, but the trade market will be very limited.  Getting rid of Saunders means relying on Josh Collmenter as the team's third starter, a fairly risky proposition.  If two of Tyler Skaggs, Pat Corbin, and Trevor Bauer round out the rotation, then a lot of pressure gets placed on Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson to repeat phenomenal 2011 seasons.

Towers told Piecoro he doesn't think there are "big, big needs" for his team, yet he won't rule out a run at "the right kind of marquee guy."  President and CEO Derrick Hall agrees that there are "not many holes to fill."  But with a potential $30MM in payroll flexibility, the D'Backs should be more aggressive in replacing Saunders in the rotation and adding a productive player at second or third base.

Towers also has internal business to tend to, as Drew, Montero, and Kennedy could be considered for extensions.  Drew and Montero are entering their walk years and therefore should be more pressing concerns.  Drew's health uncertainty and Boras representation make an offseason extension unlikely, but the D'Backs must begin planning for life without their longtime shortstop.  There's no obvious replacement for Montero, either.

The Diamondbacks must be wary of resting on their laurels, as their rotation lacks stability behind Kennedy and Hudson.  Instead, Towers should take advantage of the team's payroll flexibility by adding depth throughout the roster. 

MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

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Your window to make picks for MLBTR's first-ever free agent prediction contest is coming to a close.  Tonight at midnight central time, picks will be locked.  Only ballots with picks made for all of the top 50 free agents will be counted; incomplete ones will not be eligible.  Be sure to update and save your picks by tonight's deadline!

For information about the contest rules and prizes, click here.

Sherman On Wright, Reyes

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The latest from Joel Sherman of the New York Post…

  • "We will listen on [David] Wright for sure," a Mets official told Sherman last week.  The official added, "We know we are not going to win it all in 2012. We have to hope the Phillies get old and we are in position to take advantage of that in 2013-14, and we have to figure out ways to speed the process to get there."  Sherman says the Mets crave a "young, defensive-oriented center fielder plus an arm or two" for Wright.  He says they are focusing most on the Angels, and Peter Bourjos is a possibility.
  • Sherman was hearing similar thoughts about Wright from a Mets official back on October 21st.  Around then, an official told him, "We'll explore Wright's market.  I think considering where we are as an organization, it would be foolish not to at least look at it. However, I expect actually pulling the trigger is a long shot."  GM Sandy Alderson said on on October 31st that he thinks Wright will be a Met in 2012.  Andy Martino of the New York Daily News heard a few days later that Alderson will be "strongly disinclined to deal" Wright.  Though some of these reports have different themes, I don't consider them conflicting.  I think the Mets are being careful not to be seen as "shopping" Wright, as that's considered a dirty word in terms of leverage.  Wright seems far from off-limits, but with his value at a low point the Mets might prefer to wait.
  • Sherman questions why the Mets weren't more proactive in trading Jose Reyes in July, a theme of my offseason outlook a few weeks ago.  But I did note, "In Alderson's defense, Reyes spent half of July on the disabled list, perhaps cutting down his trade value to the point that two draft picks wasn't much worse."
  • Sherman spoke to one American League talent evaluator who thinks the Phillies will be in on Reyes.  It's true that they'll have the need and the money if Jimmy Rollins signs elsewhere.  

MLBTR’s Agency Database

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Determining an MLB player's representation was once a challenge for baseball fans, but MLBTR's agency database changed everything.  We've compiled agency data for nearly 1,500 players, mainly through regular contact with dozens of agencies.  Updates are made every week as players change agents.  The database allows you to search for individual players and filter by team or agency.  Check out MLBTR's agency database today!

How To Leave A Comment On MLBTR

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At the bottom of each post on MLBTR, you'll see the number of comments readers have made.  Clicking that allows you to read the comments in chronological order.  At the bottom, there is a blank box for posting a new comment.  Click the "Post as…" button to log in through Disqus, Google, Twitter, Facebook, Yahoo, or OpenID.

Once you are logged in, you can post comments, like comments, and follow people with Disqus profiles.  Disqus  powers our commenting system.    

MLBTR has an excellent comment moderation team, but if you see something inappropriate please contact us.  Our commenting policy can always be viewed at the link at the bottom of the site.  Attacking or insulting someone in the comments is an easy way to earn a permanent ban.  Please review the full commenting policy before leaving comments, because we generally don't have the resources to worry about explanations or second chances.

 

MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

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Dust off your crystal ball, it's time for MLBTR's first-ever free agent prediction contest!  Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team.

How To Play

  • Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents.  For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
  • A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest.  You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
  • Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom.  The contest is open now and runs until midnight central time on Sunday, November 6th.  Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the Sunday deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest.
  • The leaderboard will rank contestants by "batting average" on correct picks, once players start signing.  The leaderboard will show everyone's full names and Facebook profile picture.

Rules

  • Final picks must be saved by November 6th at midnight central time – no exceptions.
  • MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
  • One entry per person, please.
  • With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents.  If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR's discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
  • Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.

Prizes

How To Contact MLBTR

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