Non-Tender Candidate: Joe Saunders

Diamondbacks lefty Joe Saunders is a non-tender candidate, based on comments GM Kevin Towers made to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  Towers explained his thought process toward the 30-year-old:

"He certainly logs innings, which is good. A veteran with experience. A good guy. Fits in well with our club. We like him. A deciding factor will be how much confidence do we have with the younger players in our system."

Every rotation needs innings guys, and this year Saunders tallied 215 including a playoff start.  Throw in a 3.69 ERA and how could the D'Backs be thinking about cutting Saunders for no return?  

First there's the price tag, which we project at a hefty $8.7MM.  That'd represent a $3.2MM raise as Saunders enters his last season before free agency.  Then there's that ERA, which doesn't seem representative of Saunders' skills.  His SIERAs have consistently been in the 4.70 range.  Saunders is a hittable, low-strikeout pitcher who can be prone to the longball.  Finally there's Arizona's depth; they might have young starters who can provide similar performance for the league minimum, if not the innings.

Trading or non-tendering Saunders would greatly add to the D'Backs' payroll flexibility, though they don't have huge needs.  Would at least one team feel that Saunders is worth $8-9MM on a one-year deal, and also give up a minor leaguer for him?  I find it unlikely.  Saunders is similar to a healthy Jon Garland, and the open market repeatedly valued Garland close to $5MM.  Only four free agents reached 200 innings this year, and C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, and Hiroki Kuroda will either be expensive or picky about where they sign.  However, innings alone don't get a free agent an $8MM+ payday, as we saw with Garland and Rodrigo Lopez last year.  Let's hear your thoughts on Saunders in the poll below.

Will Joe Saunders be tendered a contract for 2012?

  • No 51% (1,570)
  • Yes 49% (1,537)

Total votes: 3,107

Theo Epstein Rumors: Tuesday

The latest on the Cubs' attempt to add Red Sox GM Theo Epstein to their front office…

  • Epstein is actively looking to hire a general manager to join him in Chicago, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The 37-year-old is exploring GM candidates while he waits for the Red Sox and Cubs to work out compensation for his departure. The Cubs would bring Epstein in as their president of baseball operations and he would hire a general manager to assist with the daily grind of the job.
  • The Red Sox are "holding tough" on their asking price and don't anticipate resolution tonight, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (on Twitter).
  • Hoyer told Marty Caswell of XX1090 Sports Radio that he's not going to comment on media speculation (Twitter links).  "I'm excited about what we continue to build here in San Diego," he said. 
  • The Cubs haven't asked for permission to talk to any Padres executives, according to Dan Hayes of the North County Times (Twitter link).
  • Carrie Muskat of MLB.com points out that obtaining Hoyer could prove difficult, as he is under contract through 2013 with an option for 2014 (Twitter link).  But Tom Krasovic of Inside the Padres doubts owner Jeff Moorad would hold up a deal if it meant Byrnes became the Padres' next GM (Twitter link).
  • Current Padres GM Jed Hoyer is being considered by the Cubs and Epstein, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.  In that scenario, Josh Byrnes would become the Padres' GM.  Heyman notes that the Cubs are also looking at Padres executives Byrnes and Jason McLeod for themselves, should Hoyer stay.  All the executives were once members of the Boston front office with Epstein.
  • Yesterday we learned that the Red Sox started out the Epstein compensation discussions by asking the Cubs for righty Matt Garza, which CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam says was "rejected out of hand."  Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says that "the sides slowly have moved their position to a more realistic center" as they discuss Cubs prospects.  
  • Cafardo says the Red Sox have been focusing on Trey McNutt, Brett Jackson, Matt Szczur, and Josh Vitters, the latter three labeled as unlikely by Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com yesterday.  McNutt and Andrew Cashner are unlikely as well, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, while McAdam says McNutt's inclusion is "far from guaranteed at this point."
  • An announcement today has been ruled out, writes McAdam, with "significant work" remaining to reach an agreement on compensation.  He says Friday's World Series off-day is the earliest possibility, assuming the teams come to terms and get Bud Selig's permission for an announcement.  McAdam says that although progress has been made, the Cubs feel that precedent calls for minimal compensation while the Sox think this situation defies precedent.
  • McAdam writes that the issue of Epstein taking Red Sox employees with him is not an issue, with a mutual understanding in place that he will not raid Boston's baseball operations department. 
  • Most reports, including this one from Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, suggest that the five-year, $18.5MM deal between Epstein and the Cubs is not in jeopardy.  Still, as Cafardo notes, both teams have a lot of team-building to do.    

Orioles Unlikely To Interview Marlins’ Dan Jennings

9:12pm: The Marlins haven't formally denied the Orioles' request to interview Jennings, but it's leaning that way, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter).

2:30pm: The Marlins have denied the Orioles permission to interview vice president of player personnel and assistant general manager Dan Jennings for their GM opening, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com.  Jennings is signed through 2015 from an extension signed in '07, and Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reported that the Marlins have denied teams permission to interview him three times in the past.  Jennings has been with Florida since 2002, prior to which he worked for the Devil Rays, Mariners, and Reds.

Kubatko notes that Arizona's Jerry Dipoto will interview for the Orioles position today, while Toronto's Tony LaCava is scheduled for tomorrow.

Indians Outright Head, Talbot

The Indians outrighted outfielder Jerad Head and righty Mitch Talbot today, the team announced on Twitter.  The moves drop the 40-man roster count to 38, though Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, Michael Brantley, and Shin-Soo Choo still need to be activated from the 60-day DL.

Talbot is now a minor league free agent, according to the Indians, and he is out of options, as MLB.com's Jordan Bastian notes (on Twitter).  The 28-year-old started 12 games for the Indians and posted a 6.64 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 63 2/3 innings.  He spent time on the disabled list with a strained lower back and was outrighted to the minors in August.  

Head, also 28, made his MLB debut this year.  He spent most of the season at Triple-A, where he hit 24 homers and posted a .284/.338/.526 line in 463 plate appearances.  He can elect free agency, as he has previously been outrighted.

Arbitration Eligibles Series

Today we completed our analysis of the arbitration eligible players for all 30 teams, over 200 players in total.  The biggest names include Tim Lincecum, Matt Kemp, Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, and Jacoby Ellsbury.  Matt Swartz has done incredible work for MLBTR creating a model to project 2012 arbitration salaries, and those projections are used throughout the 30 posts.  We'll have much more from Matt on the topic later this month.  Below are links to each arbitration eligibles post, which also include payroll flexibility estimates.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Cashman On Contract, Sabathia

MLB.com's Bryan Hoch talked with Yankees GM Brian Cashman, who is conducting the team's professional scouting meetings this week.

  • Cashman's contract expires on October 31st, but he told Hoch, "It'll get done between now and October 31st, I'm sure.  I can't promise, but I think that's what everybody expects. I know it's something that everybody has to follow. But that's not a pressing circumstance, as far as something I'm worried about right now."  Cashman feels his deal can be hammered out over the phone.
  • "I'm sure we'll talk before the World Series is over," Cashman said in reference to C.C. Sabathia's contract situation.  Sabathia is expected to opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on the contract he signed in December of '08, but he hopes to re-sign.
  • Cashman said he's hopeful he has qualified people to take the place of Yankees executives Billy Eppler or Damon Oppenheimer if need be, as they have been granted permission to interview for the Angels' GM job.  ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted Oppenheimer's resume today: he's a Southern California native with five World Series rings and one of the best drafts in history (2006).  Click here to read Ben Nicholson-Smith's interview with Openheimer as part of our GM Candidates series.

Arbitration Eligibles: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals' offseason has yet to begin, and once it does Albert Pujols will be the primary concern.  GM John Mozeliak will also have to address the situations of four arbitration eligible players, and we look at them today as we finish off this series.

Theriot projects for a $3.9MM salary and is likely to be non-tendered.  The statuses of Rafael Furcal, Nick Punto, and Schumaker will be factors, but Theriot makes too much money to continue on as a bench player and he's not the team's first choice at either middle infield position.  Schumaker is a non-tender candidate as well, though he's more versatile than Theriot and projects at a more affordable $3.1MM.  Motte ($1.7MM) and McClellan ($2.7MM) will be part of next year's club.  

If the Cardinals exercise their club options for Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, and Octavio Dotel, they'll have about $84MM in contractual commitments.  Add $4.4MM for Motte and McClellan and they're at $88.3MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  A $110MM payroll would leave over $20MM in flexibility.  One can certainly picture scenarios where a new Pujols contract fits in, though they'd probably have to take payroll a bit higher to sign Furcal and a few other minor pieces.  A trip to the World Series helps the payroll situation.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

The Mets' attempt to re-sign Jose Reyes will dominate their offseason and determine how much they can spend on other areas of need, like the bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

As expected, 2011 was a year of transition for the Mets.  New GM Sandy Alderson did fine work in escaping Francisco Rodriguez's vesting option and maximizing the return on Carlos Beltran.  Alderson's most debatable decision, though, was not trading Jose Reyes at the July deadline.  Reyes' status is now likely to shape the Mets' offseason.

Reyes missed about six weeks of the season, enduring two separate DL stints due to a hamstring injury.  The Mets must determine whether they see Reyes as a player who can be depended upon for only 130 games a year moving forward, or one capable of returning to the 150-games-played plateau.  Reyes' season was phenomenal even with the time missed, and his strong finish bodes well for him in free agency.  Still, all five to seven year, $100MM+ contracts are very risky.  So far, Alderson's biggest risk as Mets GM was keeping Reyes.  If that July decision doesn't result in an offseason discount, the Mets will have to settle for a couple of draft picks.

Wright had a disappointing season as he missed more than two months with a back injury.  Trading him now would result in a disappointing return.  Wright can void his 2013 club option if traded, meaning Alderson only would be offering one season of the third baseman.  The Beltran formula might be applied here: Alderson could hope Wright rebuilds his value in the first few months of 2012 and becomes the best bat on the trade market.  Players like Pelfrey and Pagan could also become useful trade chips.  I'd tender contracts to both despite their disappointing 2011 seasons.

If the Mets don't re-sign Reyes, another consolidation season might be in order.  Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Josh Thole had promising seasons, and the rotation has useful pieces.  Still, the team is facing question marks all around the diamond and in the rotation.  I think they can contend if Reyes returns and Wright, Santana, and Bay also contribute star-caliber seasons, but that's unlikely and reason to find Alderson's decision to keep Reyes confusing.  In Alderson's defense, Reyes spent half of July on the disabled list, perhaps cutting down his trade value to the point that two draft picks wasn't much worse.

A $110MM payroll would give the Mets plenty of flexibility, and the bullpen will be one focus.  I expect Alderson to make improvements, yet still exercise caution and avoid a big commitment to any one reliever.  The rotation is a similar issue, with Alderson needing to make a few more Capuano-type signings.  Hopefully if Reyes leaves there won't be an expectation to spend the entire surplus just for the sake of spending.  The team just has too many questions to make 2012 contention likely.

Plenty of questions remain in Irving Picard's lawsuit against Mets owners Saul Katz and Fred Wilpon, but the tide seems to be turning in the owners' favor with a judge capping their potential loss at $386MM.  Should Picard fail to prove the Mets owners were willfully blind to Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, they might have to pay out less than $100MM.

Perhaps by 2013 the Mets can have the Picard lawsuit settled and the decks mostly cleared of bad contracts.  Alderson can make determinations on the futures of Reyes and Wright, while his other big-money players, Santana and Bay, will be entering their walk years barring vesting options.  The Mets will have more clarity on players such as Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell, Duda, and Murphy, while Jenrry Mejia should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.  If Alderson continues laying a proper foundation, the Mets should be competitive by '13. 

Arbitration Eligibles: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Hammock ($900K), Burroughs ($600K), and Owings ($800K) are likely non-tender candidates.  Hammock was barely on the Diamondbacks' 40-man roster, so they probably won't feel the need to keep him there.  Burroughs was outrighted in June and re-added, so he could be expendable.  And while Owings was useful on the surface, he's a pitcher the team could non-tender and try to re-sign to a minor league deal.

Parra, a potential Super Two, projects to earn $1.7MM.  Roberts projects for the same, and we have Ziegler at $1.8MM.  Montero should make a decent buck at around $5.3MM.

We project Saunders for $8.7MM, which might be high for an innings guy who shouldn't be expected to repeat his 3.69 ERA.  D'Backs GM Kevin Towers indicated recently that a non-tender or trade is possible, depending on the team's budget and their confidence in their younger pitchers.  I think Towers would find a team willing to tender Saunders a contract.

If Parra, Roberts, Ziegler, Montero, and Saunders are retained, the total should be around $19.2MM.  If Willie Bloomquist and Henry Blanco return at their mutual option prices, players under contract will earn $30.758MM for a total of about $50MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  A return to the $70MM payroll range would leave around $20MM in flexibility, with the subtraction of Saunders potentially bringing that amount closer to $29MM.

Towers told Nick Piecoro he doesn't see "big, big needs" for his team but wouldn't rule out the right marquee player.  As a team free of eight-figure commitments, the D'Backs have the flexibility to make a major addition this offseason.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

GM Candidate: A.J. Preller

MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’ve been bringing you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with A.J. Preller, the Rangers' senior director of player personnel. 

A.J. Preller grew up a Yankees fan in Huntington Station.  He met a fellow New York baseball fanatic named Jon Daniels while pledging Delta Chi at Cornell, but it was Preller who broke into Major League Baseball first, snagging an internship with the Phillies during college.  After graduating Preller worked under Frank Robinson for the Arizona Fall League.  Preller went on to work for MLB and then the Dodgers before landing with the Rangers seven years ago.  He advises Daniels on all player acquisitions, and works in international, amateur, and professional scouting.

I caught up with the well-traveled Preller last Tuesday, before his Rangers suffered a Game 3 ALCS loss to Detroit.  Preller had a lot of interesting stories about the Rangers, though we didn't focus much on him.

On the Colby Lewis signing:

Colby is definitely an interesting story.  We had two scouts, Joe Furukawa and Josh Boyd, who were big proponents of Colby.  They felt like he had gone over Japan and made a few adjustments and his stuff would play back here in the States.  Joe worked for the Hiroshima Carp in the past, so he got a chance to see a lot of Colby's starts in Japan.  Joe did the first bullpen Colby threw, and Colby didn't need a huge adjustment.  What you see right now from Colby is kind of what it looked like first bullpen on day one with the Carp.  The 2 big separators are legitimate fastball command and the out pitch slider that we thought would play over here.

On the Nelson Cruz trade:

He was an interesting guy, a toolsy guy.  You always want to take a chance on a guy that's got huge raw power, a big arm, and he's a tremendous person.  You want to give those guys every opportunity in the world to try to figure it out.  One of the last times Nellie went to Triple-A, [current senior director of player development] Scott Servais asked if he'd want to make an adjustment and go to an open stance. Nellie opened up the stance.  Last year in Tampa after winning the first round of the playoffs, Nellie comes up to Servais in the middle of the celebration and hugs him and says, "Hey, thank you for making my career."  That shows what kind of person Nellie is.

On C.J. Wilson's move to the rotation:

There was a lot of debate within our group whether he could make that adjustment, and J.D. [Jon Daniels] encourages everybody to speak their mind.  Mike Anderson, Nolan Ryan, and Thad Levine felt like he could make that adjustment.  The biggest reason was that C.J. was pushing it to us, he wanted to be a starter.  He really cares about his profession and making himself as good as he can be.   He has three or four pitches that are gonna play and he had the demeanor for it.  He was adamant he could do it.

Do the Rangers do something differently than other teams?

We really focus on getting good people, creative people that are passionate about the game.  It burns them to be the best in their field.  We give them a lot of room to grow in their field and trust what they're saying.  Keith Boeck, one of our pro scouts, has been in our organization the last seven or eight years and he went out during the Mark Teixeira trade discussions and was one person that identified the Braves as an organization that might be a match.  He was one of the first guys to see Neftali Feliz at 17-18 years old, he saw and really believed in Matt Harrison, and Elvis Andrus.  Those are three key pieces of what we've done the last few years.  J.D. finds some matches and gives our scouts the ability to go out and make good evaluations and be creative.  Those were not guys that were knocking on the door necessarily – an A ball shortstop hitting .230 at the time, a power arm  reliever, and Harrison was on the DL at the time.  That's the atmosphere J.D. fosters- if you're good, you work hard, and you're passionate what you do, you have a chance to get players.

On the difficulty of pulling off the Teixeira trade:

The most fun we've had as a group was during that process.  It was challenge – trading a great player like Mark Teixeira, you need to get value back.  The challenge is to identify the teams that have interest in acquiring the player and then identifying the players in those systems who can be impact players to set you up for a long time down the road.  It was a total group effort – from the front office to our pro scouts.  It was all hands on board – amateur scouts, pro scouts, coaches.  We identified three or four clubs that had a chance to acquire Teixeira and we wanted to acquire their players.  

On Don Welke:

Don is one of the best scouts in the game.  He was Pat Gillick's right-hand man for about 20 years with the Blue Jays and Orioles.  He's been with us for the last six years and has a lot to do with setting the philosophy on the scouting side and the player acquisition side.  He was a huge proponent of Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Neftali Feliz.  He goes after big-time impact players with plus makeup.  A guy like Don Welke is a separator.

Other unsung members of the front office:

Guys like Mike Daly, Kip Fagg and Josh Boyd help to set the direction and philosophy for all our scouting operations.  Mike Daly oversees our international scouting.  Mike started with the Indians as an area scout.  He's put together a very good group of international scouts and has developed a thorough process.  That market is a true free agent market and he's been able to recruit, develop relationships, and sign some of the better players.  His developed a tremendous relationship Jurickson Profar and his family, and Profar wanted to be a Ranger.