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Central Notes: Ventura, Ordonez, Sizemore, Epstein

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If the Tigers win the ALCS, we could see the first all-Central World Series since St. Louis topped Detroit five years ago.  Today's AL and NL Central links…

  • The White Sox announced they'll introduce new manager Robin Ventura tomorrow at an 11am central time press conference.  ESPNChicago's Doug Padilla reported today that Mark Parent will come aboard as Ventura's bench coach and Joe McEwing will serve as the third base coach.  Jeff Manto is ahead of Tim Laker in terms of hitting coach candidates, Padilla reports.
  • The Tigers' Magglio Ordonez re-fractured his ankle Saturday, reported MLB.com's Jason Beck.  The right fielder will see specialists after returning to Detroit, tweets Tom Gage of the Detroit News.  Ordonez, 38 in January, is eligible for free agency this winter.
  • "It seems highly unlikely" that the Indians will exercise their $8.5MM club option on center fielder Grady Sizemore, opines MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.  The Indians revealed Tuesday that Sizemore had a right knee arthroscopy but is expected to be ready for Spring Training.  Should the 29-year-old reach free agency, I'd rank him around 30th on my top 50 list.
  • A rival executive talked to ESPN's Buster Olney on Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and the Cubs: "If he met with the Cubs, what it means is that if he gets the offer he wants, he's gone [to Chicago]."  Earlier today, however, SI's Jon Heyman wrote that most baseball insiders "believe it's more likely than not [Epstein will] remain in Boston, at least for now."
  • Brewers reliever Francisco Rodriguez reflected on this summer's trade, telling Mike Puma of the New York Post, "I'm winning, and [the Mets] needed pretty much to get rid of me."  K-Rod told Puma he holds no grudge toward the Mets.
  • Of the 11 Pirates players eligible for arbitration this winter, only Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, and Evan Meek are absolutely certain to be tendered contracts, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch.  She notes that "if the Pirates do not intend to tender a contract to someone on the list, there is a good chance that player will be removed in November so that the Pirates can open up roster spots to protect players from being taken in the Rule 5 Draft."  Click here for MLBTR's projected salaries for the Pirates' arbitration group. 
  • The chances of lefty Paul Maholm returning to the Pirates next year are less than 50-50, in the opinion of Langosch.  I'd say Maholm ranks toward the back end of the top ten free agent starters this winter.
  • Check out my offseason outlooks for the Cubs and Astros.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

I see Burton as the most likely non-tender candidate, though he projects for only $900K.  The 30-year-old righty missed most of the season due to a shoulder issue.

Many of the remaining arbitration eligibles disappointed in 2011, but will probably be tendered contracts.  A projected salary rundown: Masset ($2.4MM), Volquez ($2.3MM), Bailey ($1.8MM), Arredondo ($1MM), Janish ($800K).  Janish seems the most likely of this group to be non-tendered, but I think his defense and low salary will save him.  The Reds could trim payroll by trading a few of these players though.

If Masset, Volquez, Bailey, Arredondo, and Janish are retained, the cost should be around $8.3MM.  Excluding buyouts for Francisco Cordero and Brandon Phillips, the Reds have $50.558MM in 2012 contractual commitments according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  The five arbitration eligibles would bring them to about $59MM before minimum salary players are considered, which is about $22MM below the 2011 Opening Day payroll of $81MM.  GM Walt Jocketty expects to bump up payroll a little, but the majority of the surplus will probably go to Phillips and Cordero.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Poll: Ryan Madson Vs. Heath Bell

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Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell.  Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons.  Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.

In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates.  He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty.  He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease.  No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.

Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September.  He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities.  Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer.  Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways.  It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years.  Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.

For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market.  That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign.  For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration.  So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not.  Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell? 

Bigger contract: Ryan Madson or Heath Bell?
Heath Bell 56.24% (3,966 votes)
Ryan Madson 43.76% (3,086 votes)
Total Votes: 7,052

Free Agent Stock Watch: Freddy Garcia

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Among free agent starters with at least 100 innings pitched in 2011, C.J. Wilson, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Buehrle unsurprisingly comprise the top three in ERA.  Erik Bedard snags the fourth spot with a 3.62 ERA, the bigger surprise being the lefty's health rather than his performance.  But just a hair behind Bedard in the free agent ERA rankings is a man who had to sign a minor league deal in late January: Freddy Garcia.

94211080701_Yankees_at_Red_Sox

After the 2006 season Garcia had tallied 200+ innings in six consecutive years.  Seeking a front-rotation arm, Phillies GM Pat Gillick acquired Garcia from the White Sox for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez at the Winter Meetings that year.  Biceps soreness set in that spring for Garcia, who began the year on the DL.  The big righty threw 56 innings for the '07 Phillies, at which point a serious shoulder injury was diagnosed.  He had surgery in late August, and became a hot commodity as a free agent a year later.  Garcia gave the '08 Tigers three September starts and planned to participate in the Venezuelan Winter League to further prove his health.

Garcia's shoulder flared up at that point, but he was healthy enough to land a $1.5MM base salary with $6.5MM in incentives from the Mets in January of '09.  Mets GM Omar Minaya convinced Garcia to accept a minor league assignment to begin that season, but he was released by the end of April.  It was a low point for Garcia, who signed back with the White Sox in June of that year on a minor league deal.  Garcia closed out his season with nine starts for the Sox, pitching well enough to prompt the team to exercise a $1MM option in October.

In 2010 we saw a full season of the new Garcia.  The results: a 4.64 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, and 40.7% groundball rate in 157 innings.  It wasn't enough to merit a big league deal, so the Yankees signed him to a minor league contract in January and he soon became the favorite to be the team's fourth starter.  An August finger injury cost Garcia a few starts, but he ended up with similar numbers: a 5.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, and 36.4% groundball rate in 146 2/3 innings.  If you count a minor league start and a postseason start, Garcia pitched 156 innings.

SIERA says Garcia's skills suggest an ERA around 4.28, rather than his actual 3.62 mark.  That's still an improvement over 2010.  Garcia slightly improved his strikeout rate, perhaps due to some changes in his mix of pitches.  Garcia still profiles as a back-end starter, but his new level of performance should result in a guarantee at least matching the $3MM given to the likes of Brad Penny and Brandon Webb last winter.

Garcia appears to have earned over $4MM this year including incentives, and the Yankees must decide whether to offer arbitration if his fringe Type B status holds up.  Perhaps the Yankees can convince him to decline arbitration, as otherwise the process could lead to a $5-6MM guarantee should the pitcher accept.  Garcia has shown he can provide that amount of value, but despite the lower ERA this year the market perception would probably put him below a $5MM base salary as a free agent.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Having signed Troy Tulowitzki, Jason Hammel, Matt Lindstrom, Chris Iannetta, and Carlos Gonzalez to multiyear deals, the Rockies are left with only four arbitration eligible players.

Stewart and Spilborghs are non-tender candidates.  Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd recently said he's willing to give Stewart another opportunity, implying he will pay the $2MM or so that will be required if the third baseman is tendered a contract in December.  Two months remain until the non-tender deadline, however.  There is a case to keep Spilborghs at an approximate $2MM despite his 2011 struggles.  The 32-year-old had been a very useful fourth outfielder prior to this year and may have trade value at that price.

As a potential Super Two, Fowler projects to fall in the $2MM range as well.  Smith, who would be around $2.6MM, has been mentioned as potential trade bait should the Rockies sign an outfielder.

Cot's Baseball Contracts shows the Rockies have about $61MM owed to players under contract for next year.  If all four arbitration eligibles are retained, they'd be around $70MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  The Rockies would have around $13MM in 2012 flexibility, though as much as $18MM more could be cleared if the team non-tenders or trades Stewart, Spilborghs, Smith, Huston Street, and Ty Wigginton.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals aim to add an outfield bat and a starting pitcher this offseason, which might be enough to vault them into contention in 2012.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

It's about time the Nationals become a bona fide contender.  The heart of the batting order can be elite with Zimmerman, Morse, and Werth.  The rotation has front-end arms in Strasburg and Zimmermann, even if neither is a horse yet.  The back end of the bullpen is in place too, with Drew Storen, Clippard, and Henry Rodriguez.  This is the foundation of a playoff team, but GM Mike Rizzo must make several more significant acquisitions to make the Nationals a contender in 2012.  Rizzo recently told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, "I think we're an outfield bat away and a starting pitcher away from really being a contender in the division."

If Strasburg and Zimmermann combine for, say, 350 regular season innings in 2012, it'd be ideal to make up that deficiency with an innings-eating ace.  Obviously, those are in high demand. Free agents C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson fit the bill, while James Shields would be a high-end trade target.  In the next tier, potentially available starters such as Edwin Jackson, Jason Vargas, Mark Buehrle, Jeremy Guthrie, and Brett Myers could gobble up 200 innings at a respectable ERA.  I don't like the idea of trading Lannan; the Nationals need the innings he could provide as a reasonably-priced fourth starter.  Catcher Jesus Flores represents more expendable trade bait, though his value is at a low point.

Assuming they believe in the second-half performance of shortstop Ian Desmond, the Nationals are in good shape in the middle infield and at catcher.  Center field continues to represent the biggest up-the-middle question for the club.  Rizzo could renew talks for Twins center fielder Denard Span, who is potentially signed through 2015.  Otherwise, Rizzo could go for a stopgap solution like B.J. Upton or Coco Crisp and keep Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury in the back of his mind as future free agent possibilities.  Using Werth in center is another option, at least in the short-term.

Agent Scott Boras will surely try to sell the Nationals on the idea of signing Prince Fielder for first base and using Morse in left field.  Fielder doesn't gel with the team's primary short-term or long-term needs. They have a $9MM commitment with first baseman LaRoche next year and impending extension talks for Zimmerman.  Committing $100MM to C.J. Wilson would be one thing, but Fielder could require twice as much.

One more item on the Nationals' to-do list is to name their manager for 2012.  Davey Johnson is widely expected to keep the job, but the team has until the end of the month to decide.

Are the Nationals looking to go all-in for 2012, or just make marginal improvements and let Bryce Harper and other talented young players close the gap whenever they're ready?  A healthy bump to a $100MM payroll would give the team $40MM+ in 2012 flexibility, enough for two starting pitchers and an outfielder, which could result in the Nationals' first playoff appearance.

Kouzmanoff Elects Free Agency

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THURSDAY: Kouzmanoff has elected free agency after clearing waivers, MLBTR has learned.  Word is that multiple teams are interested in signing him to a big league deal.  

TUESDAY: The Rockies are in the process of outrighting third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff from the roster, MLBTR has learned.  The 30-year-old third baseman is expected to reach free agency once he clears waivers.

The alternative for Colorado would have been to tender Kouzmanoff a contract and pay him at least $3.8MM for 2012.  Since that's not in the cards, they're removing him from the 40-man roster now rather than wait until the December 12th non-tender deadline.

The Rockies had acquired Kouzmanoff on August 25th, giving him a 27-game trial for the remainder of the season.  He has a .243/.284/.389 line for 2010-11, failing to match the moderate power he showed in San Diego.  The offensive issues will hurt Kouzmanoff's earning power, though his defense is above-average according to UZR.

AL East Links: Damon, MacPhail, Granderson

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Four of the AL East's teams are in offseason mode, while the Yankees prepare for the deciding ALDS game five against the Tigers tomorrow.  Non-Red Sox links from the division:

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are at a crossroads this offseason, as they seek a new GM and face the temptation of adding more big free agent contracts.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Cubs were a $134MM disaster in 2011.  Despite all their spending the team hasn't reached the playoffs since '08.  This summer they fired longtime GM Jim Hendry, whose teams made the playoffs in three of nine seasons.  Owner Tom Ricketts seeks a more analytically-inclined GM to craft the roster.  His other criteria include a commitment to player development and a track record of success.  Ricketts has pledged silence during the ongoing search, but reports suggest he's initially targeting current GMs such as Theo Epstein and Andrew Friedman.  The job security of Mike Quade is in question as well, as a new GM may want to hire a new manager.

The new GM will have to spend free agent dollars wisely, which was often a problem for Hendry in recent years.  A steady payroll for 2012 could give the Cubs a hefty $40MM to work with in 2012 salaries.  The possibility of a quick turnaround tempts Ricketts, who referenced the Diamondbacks' success in a recent interview.  The D'Backs were fairly restrained in free agency last winter, but the Cubs are in a position to throw around some cash in the coming months.  The potential areas to upgrade are plentiful, with openings at the infield corners, right field, the rotation, and in the bullpen.

The Cubs may have to make a concession at third base.  The opportunity to re-sign Ramirez — easily the best free agent third baseman available — to a below-market contract hasn't motivated them, and the team's offense will suffer without him.  The first base market is appealing, with superstars Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder options to take up more than half of the Cubs' payroll flexibility.  With such a clear rotation need, though, the Cubs could lower their sights at first base and re-sign Pena or pursue Michael Cuddyer.  Cuddyer's versatility could be a nice match for the Cubs, who have openings at all his positions.

The Cubs appear intent on unloading Zambrano, whose performance is probably worth a few million dollars to some team.  Chone Figgins could be a reasonable target given the Cubs' third base vacancy and the limited options at that position, though the Mariners would have to be willing to take another potential head case from the Cubs.  Assuming Dempster returns, he'll join Garza and Wells in the rotation.  If a quick fix is the goal the Cubs would be best-served by shopping in the high-end section of the market: C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, or Yu Darvish.  On the other hand, signing any of the potential $100MM+ players this offseason would hardly break the Cubs' cycle of piling on burdensome contracts.

I can't picture the Cubs slashing payroll given their attendance and rabid fanbase, but I'm also not convinced they're going to come away with Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Wilson, or Darvish.  With so many needs, the Cubs could easily spread their surplus among four or five veterans.  Other big-market teams have shown an ability to contend and improve the farm system simultaneously, a strategy the Cubs appeared to finally initiate with a slew of over-slot signings in the June draft.

Rockies Rumors: Stewart, Wright, Headley, Alvarez

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The Rockies pick tenth in next year's draft, a pick that will be protected if they sign a Type A free agent who turned down arbitration this offseason.  The latest on the team, from Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post:

  • Kevin Kouzmanoff is unlikely to return to the Rockies next year.  MLBTR reported yesterday that the team is in the process of outrighting the third baseman.  Ian Stewart will get another shot at the third base job if he "makes baseball his first priority from the start of the winter until the end of it," GM Dan O'Dowd told Renck.  The Rockies will need to make a decision on Stewart by the December 12th non-tender deadline though.  Tendering him a contract probably means paying him around $2.2MM again.
  • Opposing executives expect O'Dowd to aggressively pursue Mets third baseman David Wright.  Otherwise Renck expects the Rockies to cast a wide net, including the Padres' Chase Headley and the Pirates' Pedro Alvarez but not free agent Aramis Ramirez.  I have a hard time imagining the Padres sending Headley to their division rival; the two teams haven't matched up for an offseason trade since the Rockies' inaugural season.
  • The Rockies are looking to trade Ty Wigginton even it means eating some of the $4.5MM owed to him.
  • Renck reiterates that the Rockies seek an innings eater this offseason.

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