Rosenthal On CBA Talks
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has the latest on the talks between the players' union and owners as they aim to strike a new collective bargaining agreement…
- It's a coin flip that an agreement will occur during the World Series, a source with knowledge of the discussions tells Rosenthal. While that goal remains within reach, Rosenthal says the more important target date is the opening of free agency five days after the Series. If no agreement is reached by then, it will create a new set of issues. The World Series will end between October 23rd and 27th this year.
- Rosenthal hears the players and owners remain far apart on the owners' request for hard slotting in the amateur draft, yet the gulf could narrow quickly.
- The new deal is expected to include big changes for 2013: two 15-team leagues and a new one-game wild card round for the postseason. The Astros' situation is fluid, hears Rosenthal. They're the team most likely to move to the AL if new owner Jim Crane is approved.
Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies intend to add an innings-eater and a right-handed hitter this offseason, likely focusing on the trade market rather than free agency due to budgetary constraints.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Todd Helton, 1B: $9.9MM through 2013
- Jorge de la Rosa, SP: $21MM through 2013, if '13 player option is exercised
- Huston Street, RP: $8MM through 2012, assuming club declines '13 mutual option
- Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $152.25MM through 2020
- Rafael Betancourt, RP: $4.25MM through 2012
- Ty Wigginton, 1B/3B/LF: $4.5MM through 2012
- Jason Hammel, SP: $4.75MM through 2012
- Matt Lindstrom, RP: $3.8MM through 2012
- Chris Iannetta, C: $3.8MM through 2012
- Matt Belisle, RP: $3.775MM through 2012
- Carlos Gonzalez, RF: $76MM through 2017
Contractual Options
- Aaron Cook, unranked SP: $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
- Jason Giambi, unranked 1B: $1MM mutual option
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Seth Smith, RF: $2.6MM
- Dexter Fowler, CF: $2MM
- Ian Stewart, 3B: $2MM (non-tender candidate)
- Ryan Spilborghs, OF: $2MM (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Mark Ellis (Type B 2B), Kevin Millwood (unranked SP), J.C. Romero (unranked RP)
Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd has his work cut out for him this offseason. The team needs an innings-eating starter, solutions at second base, third base, and left field, and a left-handed reliever. The Rockies will require significant trading and creativity to get back on top, if payroll is to remain in the low-$80MM range.
If all four arbitration eligible players are retained, the Rockies would appear to have less than $15MM in payroll flexibility next year. Fortunately, trade candidates abound in Street, Wigginton, Smith, Stewart, and Iannetta. Those five players will earn about $21MM in total next year — a quarter of the team's expected payroll. Iannetta is the least likely to be traded, as Wilin Rosario is probably not ready for full-time duty. O'Dowd projects Stewart and Smith as potential platoon players next year. If a full-time left fielder or third baseman is acquired, Stewart and Smith will become expendable. Street and Smith might be the only veteran Rockies with decent trade value, so O'Dowd may have to part with prospects to improve the team. The Rockies GM has implied that Stewart will be tendered a contract, but that may have been posturing.
200 innings is an arbitrary cutoff, but it's a level 39 pitchers reached in 2011. None of them were Rockies. Trade targets could include James Shields, Carl Pavano, Brett Myers, Jeremy Guthrie, Ricky Nolasco, Gio Gonzalez, and Jason Vargas. Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Mike Pelfrey, John Lannan, and Wandy Rodriguez have at least shown an ability to take 180+ innings. Finding that type of starter in free agency is less likely, and pitchers may still be reluctant to play in Colorado. An August waiver claim on Rodriguez showed the Rockies are willing to assume a commitment in the three-year, $36MM range. It seems odd the Rockies would consider trading prospects for any of the above pitchers when they had Ubaldo Jimenez set to earn $18MM over 2012-14. Obviously, O'Dowd feels strongly about Drew Pomeranz and Alex White. Additionally he probably felt Jimenez's stock would trend downward.
In the Rockies' search for a right-handed bat, Michael Cuddyer seems to possess some positive traits that Aramis Ramirez does not have. The free agent market also features left fielder Josh Willingham. From a trade standpoint, Michael Young, Carlos Quentin, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, and David Wright are potential matches. It seems unlikely the Rockies will fill both third base and left field by acquiring regulars, so look for a platoon in at least one of the positions. Ellis is a candidate to return at second base, but that position does not appear to be of primary concern to Colorado. Similarly, left-handed relief is something the Rockies will address, but probably without making a major commitment.
The echoes from the July Jimenez trade will be felt this offseason, as O'Dowd prioritizes finding a replacement proven starter. The longtime general manager seems prepared to add a few more major trades to his resume toward making the 2012 club a contender.
Red Sox Focused On McNutt In Epstein Talks
The Red Sox are "believed to be focused" on Cubs pitching prospect Trey McNutt in the Theo Epstein compensation talks, writes Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. Mooney says Cubs center field prospect Brett Jackson is "untouchable and not part of the discussions," while prospects such as Josh Vitters and Matt Szczur are considered unlikely. A source close to the talks said the Red Sox have been asking for "ridiculous combinations," writes Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.
McNutt, 22, posted a 4.55 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 0.5 HR/9 with 120 hits allowed in 95 innings for the Cubs' Double-A affiliate this year. Baseball America ranked him second among Cubs prospects heading into the season and he was a consensus top 70 prospect in the game. McNutt dealt with blister problems and bruised ribs in a disappointing 2011 season, and is currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League. ESPN's Keith Law scouted him there, noting "great velocity but well-below-average command and control."
The World Series, scheduled to begin Wednesday, seems to serve as a deadline for the talks between the Cubs and Red Sox. That is the latest point the Red Sox expect a resolution, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. One major holdup is determining which front office members Epstein can take with him to Chicago. Silverman's informed speculation suggests Red Sox vice president of baseball operations Brian O'Halloran, special assistant to the GM Dave Finley, and head athletic director and assistant director of medical services Mike Reinold "could be part of Epstein's request." Senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes and assistant GM Jason McLeod could be candidates to come from the Padres.
Brewers Owner Will Try For Prince
"We'll be in the game" for free agent first baseman Prince Fielder, Brewers owner Mark Attansio told reporters last night (including Steve Haywood of ESPN 540) after his team was eliminated from the playoffs. Attanasio said, "We'd love to bring the big guy back," but noted that he'd like to have some distance from the season so that emotions are not an issue.
Fielder received an ovation from Brewers fans last night, as many believed his eighth inning at-bat was his last for the team that drafted him almost a decade ago. Fielder deflected questions about whether he'll be back next year, and seemed annoyed when pressed. In September, he admitted 2011 was "probably the last year" he'd be with Milwaukee.
Agent Scott Boras could begin by attempting to top his own record contract for a first baseman, the eight year, $180MM deal Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees three years ago. Boras drew that comparison publicly in July of 2010. Boras could also make a case to beat the $184MM given to Joe Mauer in March of 2010, especially since Prince has been so durable, tweets Peter Gammons. However, there are some who see Fielder around Adrian Gonzalez's seven year, $154MM deal, reported SI's Jon Heyman. Mauer helps Boras, and Gonzalez hurts him, but neither is a great comparable since they weren't signed on the open market.
I'd be very surprised to see the Brewers re-sign Fielder within the exclusive negotation period. I think if he hits the open market and finds the bids disappointing, then a window opens for the Brewers. Boras has occasionally fallen well short of the early buzz for certain free agent clients. Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon come to mind from recent years. After the '08 season, a four-year, $100MM figure was floated for Manny, but the Dodgers held the line and got him for two years and $45MM. The Yankees and Red Sox are likely to sit out the Fielder sweepstakes, and Prince is not a great fit for the Nationals. The remaining potential suitors are not known for record-breaking contracts, with the possible exception of the Cubs.
Jeremy Accardo Elects Free Agency
Reliever Jeremy Accardo is the latest addition to our 2012 free agents list, after refusing last week's outright assignment from the Orioles. Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com posted the news on Twitter.
Accardo, 29, posted a 5.73 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, and 37.4% groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings for the Orioles this year. The Arizona resident was designated for assignment in June and accepted a Triple-A assignment, but was re-added to the 40-man in September.
Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers came up short last night, and now one of the many concerns for GM Doug Melvin will be the status of his nine arbitration eligible players.
- First time: Casey McGehee, Nyjer Morgan, George Kottaras, Mitch Stetter
- Second time: Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Josh Wilson
- Third time: Shaun Marcum, Carlos Gomez
Kottaras, Stetter, Wilson, and Parra appear to be non-tender candidates. Parra missed all of 2011, eventually needing elbow surgery, and he'd be owed a minimum of $960K if tendered a contract. The other three are in the $700-800K range, so a case could be made for keeping them. Kottaras was viewed as expendable by the Brewers when they outrighted him in April, though he ended up being useful in limited duty. Stetter missed most of the season with a hip injury, while Wilson didn't do anything noteworthy.
We can't rule out the possibility of a McGehee non-tender, but a trade seems more likely. The 29-year-old third baseman had a lost 2011 season, but he hit .291/.346/.477 over 1,064 plate appearances the previous two years. At a projected $3.1MM, some team will want to give him a shot.
Marcum is the team's most expensive arbitration eligible player at a projected $6.8MM. Peers such as Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, John Danks, and Joe Saunders project in the $8-9MM range, so we'll have to see if they lift Marcum up a bit. Loe ($2.8MM), Morgan ($1.9MM), and Gomez ($1.8MM) should also be tendered contracts. Gomez had a rough year, missing time with a broken clavicle, but at $1.8MM his defense should make him worth retaining.
Including buyouts for Yuniesky Betancourt and Francisco Rodriguez, the Brewers have about $58.58MM in contractual commitments for 2012. If they retain McGehee, Morgan, Loe, Marcum, and Gomez, that'd add $16.4MM for a total of about $75MM. Assuming a steady payroll, that'd leave less than $9MM in 2012 flexibility before accounting for minimum salary players. McGehee's salary could be shedded, but without a payroll increase the Brewers do not have much room to spend this winter.
Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres
Prepare for another offseason of short-term free agent deals from the Padres in their attempt to stop the bleeding on a perennially lousy offense. The Friars also have more bullpen patchwork ahead than usual.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jason Bartlett, SS: $7MM through 2012, unless 2013 option vests
- Orlando Hudson, 2B: $7.5MM through 2012
Contractual Options
- Aaron Harang, Type B SP: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
- Brad Hawpe, unranked 1B: $6MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
- Chad Qualls, unranked RP: $6MM club option with a $1.05MM buyout
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Chase Headley, 3B: $3MM
- Tim Stauffer, SP: $3MM
- Clayton Richard, SP: $2MM
- Will Venable, OF: $1.8MM
- Dustin Moseley, SP: $1.8MM
- Nick Hundley, C: $1.6MM
- Luke Gregerson, RP: $1.3MM
- Chris Denorfia, OF: $1.2MM
- Jeff Fulchino, RP: $800K
- Joe Thatcher, RP: $800K
- Alberto Gonzalez, IF: $800K
- Rob Johnson, C: $700K
- Jeremy Hermida, OF: $500K
Free Agents
- Heath Bell (Type A RP)
Talk about a lack of commitments. The Padres owe $11MM to their starting middle infield for 2012, and nothing beyond that. GM Jed Hoyer has a clean slate and a payroll expected to be in the $53-55MM range, the team's highest since '08. As I showed last week, Hoyer should have $20MM+ to work with in 2012 payroll flexibility. At a September 29th press briefing, the GM was clear about his offseason goals. He plans to add veteran leadership, rebuild the bullpen, cut down on strikeouts, improve the bench, and add a corner outfielder.
The 2011 Padres ranked third in ERA among NL relief squads. However, they traded Mike Adams and Qualls and Bell are free agents. Cory Luebke will stick in the rotation, following a midseason shift. Those four pitchers accounted for 46% of the team's relief innings and a 2.65 ERA. The Padres will probably be looking to make multiple Qualls-type signings, snapping up decent arms on one-year deals in the $3MM range. The team will find plenty of willing applicants, as usual given their ballpark.
Bell probably should have been traded too. The closer doesn't appear interested in the team's reported proposal of two years at about $14MM and has announced his intention to deny them a chance at draft picks by accepting arbitration. I wouldn't go much higher on a contract offer, so the best move now is to offer arbitration and see if Bell still prefers to stay in San Diego on a one-year deal. I'm not sure that's really best for him — he's 34, he's never had a multiyear deal, and his strikeout rate took a big dip this year. He'd probably have to endure another summer of trade rumors, too. This offseason might be his best chance for multiyear security, and his agency could probably find a team willing to guarantee three years.
Cutting down on strikeouts and adding a corner outfielder might have to be accomplished with one player, as the Padres' infield appears set. Corner outfield free agents with high contact rates include Juan Pierre, Endy Chavez, and Coco Crisp.
This offseason might be a good time to shop Headley. He's a useful player but light on power, and the Padres have third base candidates coming up in the farm system. Power pays in arbitration, so Headley's affordability adds to his trade value. It doesn't hurt that the free agent market offers almost nothing at his position, aside from Aramis Ramirez. This offseason is also a good time to lock up center fielder Cameron Maybin, who was worth nearly five wins above replacement this year in a breakout season.
For the second season in a row, the Padres' rotation ERA ranked fourth in the National League. Mat Latos, Stauffer, and Luebke make for a solid front three. Harang or a veteran of his ilk should take another spot, perhaps with Richard and Moseley battling for the last.
The cosmetic changes discussed in this post probably won't make the Padres a contender. They haven't ranked in the upper half of the National League in runs scored since they placed eighth in 2004, the year Petco Park opened. With Anthony Rizzo, Jedd Gyorko, James Darnell, Rymer Liriano, and others, the team has young hitters on the way. Several of them will need to produce at the Major League level for this team to return to prominence.
Raul Valdes, Scott Proctor Elect Free Agency
Relievers Raul Valdes and Scott Proctor have elected free agency, the Yankees announced today (Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweeted the news). Having lost Aaron Laffey as well, the Yankees' 40-man roster now stands at 37.
Valdes, a 33-year-old southpaw, joined the Yankees on an August waiver claim from the Cardinals after being designated for assignment. Valdes tossed 12 big league innings overall and another 63 2/3 in the minors. He's had some success against lefties.
Proctor, a 34-year-old right-hander, returned to the Yankees for eight games in September after spending most of the season with the Braves. He began his career with the Yankees, suiting up in pinstripes from 2004-07. In 40 1/3 innings for Atlanta and New York this year, Proctor posted a 7.14 ERA with more walks (31) than strikeouts (29).
Royals Claim Laffey, Designate Chavez
The Royals announced today they've claimed lefty Aaron Laffey off outright waivers from the Yankees and designated reliever Jesse Chavez to create a 40-man roster spot.
Laffey, 26, posted a 3.88 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9, and 48.1% groundball rate in 53 1/3 innings for the Mariners and Yankees this year. He wasn't any better against left-handed hitters. Earlier today, Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues wrote that Laffey was an expected victim of the Yankees' upcoming 40-man roster crunch.
Chavez, 28, had joined the Royals at last year's trade deadline in the Rick Ankiel/Kyle Farnsworth deal. He struggled mightily in the Majors this year but had a 3.75 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 57 2/3 Triple-A innings. Chavez averaged 94.5 miles per hour on his fastball the last few years, but that dropped a full two miles per hour this year in the Majors.
Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Nate Schierholtz, Eli Whiteside, Emmanuel Burriss
- Second time: Andres Torres, Santiago Casilla
- Third time: Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Keppinger, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Ryan Vogelsong
With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Giants are tied with the Padres for having the biggest group we've reviewed so far. The difference? Lincecum projects to earn about as much as all 13 arbitration eligible Padres combined.
Lincecum is primed for a historic arbitration case, as I explained in detail in May. At that time, one agent told me, "This negotiation will transcend arbitration and will be a mini free agency discussion." The $19MM figure mentioned by agents at the time holds up under Matt Swartz's arbitration projection system, which predicts $19.2MM assuming Lincecum is working from a $14.1MM base in 2011. No matter what the exact number, Lincecum will set an arbitration record unless he signs a multiyear deal. He's open to another two-year contract, and I think something like $35MM would be a good deal for the club. Keep in mind that Lincecum will otherwise be arbitration eligible one last time for 2013.
Giants GM Brian Sabean admitted to reporters in September that the team will probably not bring all 13 arbitration eligible players back. Sanchez, with a projected $5.2MM salary, would seem a prime non-tender candidate. However, Sabean suggested Sanchez would be in the rotation mix next year. Sabean said Keppinger "might be a luxury item" for next year, since Freddy Sanchez is under contract. At a projected $2.7MM, I think the Giants will be able to make a trade if they feel Sanchez is ready.
I think Torres at a projected $2.5MM is a candidate to be non-tendered. Fontenot ($1.3MM), Whiteside ($700K), and Burriss ($600K) are on the bubble as well. That leaves Sandoval ($3.2MM), Vogelsong ($2.5MM), Ramirez ($2.3MM), Casilla ($1.9MM), Romo ($1.3MM), and Schierholtz ($1.2MM) as players you can expect back in 2012.
If Torres, Fontenot, Burriss, and Whiteside are non-tendered, the remaining nine could cost the Giants an estimated $39.5MM. Sabean expects a $124MM payroll. The team owes $72.433MM to players under contract, if Jeremy Affeldt's buyout is excluded but Aaron Rowand's salary is included. Add the arbitration group and we're up at $112MM, $12MM shy of Sabean's payroll figure, before minimum salary players are considered. The Giants expect to re-sign Affeldt, and perhaps a center fielder/leadoff man. That might be all they can afford, but as Sabean indicated, the team's flexibility will hinge on how much money they allocate toward retaining their top pitchers.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.