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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Tim Dierkes | October 18, 2011 at 11:04am CDT

The Mets' attempt to re-sign Jose Reyes will dominate their offseason and determine how much they can spend on other areas of need, like the bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Johan Santana, SP: $55MM through 2013, unless 2014 option becomes player choice
  • Jason Bay, LF: $35MM through 2013, unless 2014 option vests
  • David Wright, 3B: $16MM through 2012; Wright may void 2013 club option if traded
  • R.A. Dickey, SP: $4.55MM through 2012
  • D.J. Carrasco, RP: $1.2MM through 2012
  • Tim Byrdak, RP: signed through 2012

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

  • Manny Acosta, RP: $1MM
  • Mike Pelfrey, SP: $5.9MM
  • Ronny Paulino, C:, $1.5MM (non-tender candidate)
  • Angel Pagan, CF: $4.7MM (non-tender candidate)
  • Taylor Buchholz, RP: $1.2MM (non-tender candidate)

Free Agents

  • Jose Reyes (Type A SS), Ryota Igarashi (unranked RP), Chris Capuano (unranked SP), Scott Hairston (unranked OF), Chris Young (unranked SP), Willie Harris (unranked IF/OF), Miguel Batista (unranked RP), Jason Isringhausen (unranked RP)

As expected, 2011 was a year of transition for the Mets.  New GM Sandy Alderson did fine work in escaping Francisco Rodriguez's vesting option and maximizing the return on Carlos Beltran.  Alderson's most debatable decision, though, was not trading Jose Reyes at the July deadline.  Reyes' status is now likely to shape the Mets' offseason.

Reyes missed about six weeks of the season, enduring two separate DL stints due to a hamstring injury.  The Mets must determine whether they see Reyes as a player who can be depended upon for only 130 games a year moving forward, or one capable of returning to the 150-games-played plateau.  Reyes' season was phenomenal even with the time missed, and his strong finish bodes well for him in free agency.  Still, all five to seven year, $100MM+ contracts are very risky.  So far, Alderson's biggest risk as Mets GM was keeping Reyes.  If that July decision doesn't result in an offseason discount, the Mets will have to settle for a couple of draft picks.

Wright had a disappointing season as he missed more than two months with a back injury.  Trading him now would result in a disappointing return.  Wright can void his 2013 club option if traded, meaning Alderson only would be offering one season of the third baseman.  The Beltran formula might be applied here: Alderson could hope Wright rebuilds his value in the first few months of 2012 and becomes the best bat on the trade market.  Players like Pelfrey and Pagan could also become useful trade chips.  I'd tender contracts to both despite their disappointing 2011 seasons.

If the Mets don't re-sign Reyes, another consolidation season might be in order.  Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Josh Thole had promising seasons, and the rotation has useful pieces.  Still, the team is facing question marks all around the diamond and in the rotation.  I think they can contend if Reyes returns and Wright, Santana, and Bay also contribute star-caliber seasons, but that's unlikely and reason to find Alderson's decision to keep Reyes confusing.  In Alderson's defense, Reyes spent half of July on the disabled list, perhaps cutting down his trade value to the point that two draft picks wasn't much worse.

A $110MM payroll would give the Mets plenty of flexibility, and the bullpen will be one focus.  I expect Alderson to make improvements, yet still exercise caution and avoid a big commitment to any one reliever.  The rotation is a similar issue, with Alderson needing to make a few more Capuano-type signings.  Hopefully if Reyes leaves there won't be an expectation to spend the entire surplus just for the sake of spending.  The team just has too many questions to make 2012 contention likely.

Plenty of questions remain in Irving Picard's lawsuit against Mets owners Saul Katz and Fred Wilpon, but the tide seems to be turning in the owners' favor with a judge capping their potential loss at $386MM.  Should Picard fail to prove the Mets owners were willfully blind to Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, they might have to pay out less than $100MM.

Perhaps by 2013 the Mets can have the Picard lawsuit settled and the decks mostly cleared of bad contracts.  Alderson can make determinations on the futures of Reyes and Wright, while his other big-money players, Santana and Bay, will be entering their walk years barring vesting options.  The Mets will have more clarity on players such as Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell, Duda, and Murphy, while Jenrry Mejia should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.  If Alderson continues laying a proper foundation, the Mets should be competitive by '13. 

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New York Mets Offseason Outlook

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Arbitration Eligibles: Arizona Diamondbacks

By Tim Dierkes | October 18, 2011 at 10:05am CDT

The Diamondbacks are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

  • First time: Robby Hammock, Micah Owings, Gerardo Parra, Ryan Roberts
  • Second time: Brad Ziegler, Sean Burroughs    
  • Third time: Joe Saunders, Miguel Montero

Hammock ($900K), Burroughs ($600K), and Owings ($800K) are likely non-tender candidates.  Hammock was barely on the Diamondbacks' 40-man roster, so they probably won't feel the need to keep him there.  Burroughs was outrighted in June and re-added, so he could be expendable.  And while Owings was useful on the surface, he's a pitcher the team could non-tender and try to re-sign to a minor league deal.

Parra, a potential Super Two, projects to earn $1.7MM.  Roberts projects for the same, and we have Ziegler at $1.8MM.  Montero should make a decent buck at around $5.3MM.

We project Saunders for $8.7MM, which might be high for an innings guy who shouldn't be expected to repeat his 3.69 ERA.  D'Backs GM Kevin Towers indicated recently that a non-tender or trade is possible, depending on the team's budget and their confidence in their younger pitchers.  I think Towers would find a team willing to tender Saunders a contract.

If Parra, Roberts, Ziegler, Montero, and Saunders are retained, the total should be around $19.2MM.  If Willie Bloomquist and Henry Blanco return at their mutual option prices, players under contract will earn $30.758MM for a total of about $50MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  A return to the $70MM payroll range would leave around $20MM in flexibility, with the subtraction of Saunders potentially bringing that amount closer to $29MM.

Towers told Nick Piecoro he doesn't see "big, big needs" for his team but wouldn't rule out the right marquee player.  As a team free of eight-figure commitments, the D'Backs have the flexibility to make a major addition this offseason.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

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Arbitration Eligibles Arizona Diamondbacks

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GM Candidate: A.J. Preller

By Tim Dierkes | October 18, 2011 at 8:02am CDT

MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced 20 people who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’ve been bringing you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces. Today the series continues with A.J. Preller, the Rangers' senior director of player personnel. 

A.J. Preller grew up a Yankees fan in Huntington Station.  He met a fellow New York baseball fanatic named Jon Daniels while pledging Delta Chi at Cornell, but it was Preller who broke into Major League Baseball first, snagging an internship with the Phillies during college.  After graduating Preller worked under Frank Robinson for the Arizona Fall League.  Preller went on to work for MLB and then the Dodgers before landing with the Rangers seven years ago.  He advises Daniels on all player acquisitions, and works in international, amateur, and professional scouting.

I caught up with the well-traveled Preller last Tuesday, before his Rangers suffered a Game 3 ALCS loss to Detroit.  Preller had a lot of interesting stories about the Rangers, though we didn't focus much on him.

On the Colby Lewis signing:

Colby is definitely an interesting story.  We had two scouts, Joe Furukawa and Josh Boyd, who were big proponents of Colby.  They felt like he had gone over Japan and made a few adjustments and his stuff would play back here in the States.  Joe worked for the Hiroshima Carp in the past, so he got a chance to see a lot of Colby's starts in Japan.  Joe did the first bullpen Colby threw, and Colby didn't need a huge adjustment.  What you see right now from Colby is kind of what it looked like first bullpen on day one with the Carp.  The 2 big separators are legitimate fastball command and the out pitch slider that we thought would play over here.

On the Nelson Cruz trade:

He was an interesting guy, a toolsy guy.  You always want to take a chance on a guy that's got huge raw power, a big arm, and he's a tremendous person.  You want to give those guys every opportunity in the world to try to figure it out.  One of the last times Nellie went to Triple-A, [current senior director of player development] Scott Servais asked if he'd want to make an adjustment and go to an open stance. Nellie opened up the stance.  Last year in Tampa after winning the first round of the playoffs, Nellie comes up to Servais in the middle of the celebration and hugs him and says, "Hey, thank you for making my career."  That shows what kind of person Nellie is.

On C.J. Wilson's move to the rotation:

There was a lot of debate within our group whether he could make that adjustment, and J.D. [Jon Daniels] encourages everybody to speak their mind.  Mike Anderson, Nolan Ryan, and Thad Levine felt like he could make that adjustment.  The biggest reason was that C.J. was pushing it to us, he wanted to be a starter.  He really cares about his profession and making himself as good as he can be.   He has three or four pitches that are gonna play and he had the demeanor for it.  He was adamant he could do it.

Do the Rangers do something differently than other teams?

We really focus on getting good people, creative people that are passionate about the game.  It burns them to be the best in their field.  We give them a lot of room to grow in their field and trust what they're saying.  Keith Boeck, one of our pro scouts, has been in our organization the last seven or eight years and he went out during the Mark Teixeira trade discussions and was one person that identified the Braves as an organization that might be a match.  He was one of the first guys to see Neftali Feliz at 17-18 years old, he saw and really believed in Matt Harrison, and Elvis Andrus.  Those are three key pieces of what we've done the last few years.  J.D. finds some matches and gives our scouts the ability to go out and make good evaluations and be creative.  Those were not guys that were knocking on the door necessarily – an A ball shortstop hitting .230 at the time, a power arm  reliever, and Harrison was on the DL at the time.  That's the atmosphere J.D. fosters- if you're good, you work hard, and you're passionate what you do, you have a chance to get players.

On the difficulty of pulling off the Teixeira trade:

The most fun we've had as a group was during that process.  It was challenge – trading a great player like Mark Teixeira, you need to get value back.  The challenge is to identify the teams that have interest in acquiring the player and then identifying the players in those systems who can be impact players to set you up for a long time down the road.  It was a total group effort – from the front office to our pro scouts.  It was all hands on board – amateur scouts, pro scouts, coaches.  We identified three or four clubs that had a chance to acquire Teixeira and we wanted to acquire their players.  

On Don Welke:

Don is one of the best scouts in the game.  He was Pat Gillick's right-hand man for about 20 years with the Blue Jays and Orioles.  He's been with us for the last six years and has a lot to do with setting the philosophy on the scouting side and the player acquisition side.  He was a huge proponent of Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Neftali Feliz.  He goes after big-time impact players with plus makeup.  A guy like Don Welke is a separator.

Other unsung members of the front office:

Guys like Mike Daly, Kip Fagg and Josh Boyd help to set the direction and philosophy for all our scouting operations.  Mike Daly oversees our international scouting.  Mike started with the Indians as an area scout.  He's put together a very good group of international scouts and has developed a thorough process.  That market is a true free agent market and he's been able to recruit, develop relationships, and sign some of the better players.  His developed a tremendous relationship Jurickson Profar and his family, and Profar wanted to be a Ranger.  

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2011 GM Candidates Texas Rangers

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Rosenthal On CBA Talks

By Tim Dierkes | October 17, 2011 at 2:02pm CDT

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has the latest on the talks between the players' union and owners as they aim to strike a new collective bargaining agreement…

  • It's a coin flip that an agreement will occur during the World Series, a source with knowledge of the discussions tells Rosenthal.  While that goal remains within reach, Rosenthal says the more important target date is the opening of free agency five days after the Series.  If no agreement is reached by then, it will create a new set of issues.  The World Series will end between October 23rd and 27th this year.
  • Rosenthal hears the players and owners remain far apart on the owners' request for hard slotting in the amateur draft, yet the gulf could narrow quickly.
  • The new deal is expected to include big changes for 2013: two 15-team leagues and a new one-game wild card round for the postseason.  The Astros' situation is fluid, hears Rosenthal.  They're the team most likely to move to the AL if new owner Jim Crane is approved.
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Collective Bargaining Agreement Houston Astros

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

By Tim Dierkes | October 17, 2011 at 12:32pm CDT

The Rockies intend to add an innings-eater and a right-handed hitter this offseason, likely focusing on the trade market rather than free agency due to budgetary constraints.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Todd Helton, 1B: $9.9MM through 2013
  • Jorge de la Rosa, SP: $21MM through 2013, if '13 player option is exercised
  • Huston Street, RP: $8MM through 2012, assuming club declines '13 mutual option
  • Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $152.25MM through 2020
  • Rafael Betancourt, RP: $4.25MM through 2012
  • Ty Wigginton, 1B/3B/LF: $4.5MM through 2012
  • Jason Hammel, SP: $4.75MM through 2012
  • Matt Lindstrom, RP: $3.8MM through 2012
  • Chris Iannetta, C: $3.8MM through 2012
  • Matt Belisle, RP: $3.775MM through 2012
  • Carlos Gonzalez, RF: $76MM through 2017

Contractual Options

  • Aaron Cook, unranked SP: $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
  • Jason Giambi, unranked 1B: $1MM mutual option

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

  • Seth Smith, RF: $2.6MM
  • Dexter Fowler, CF: $2MM
  • Ian Stewart, 3B: $2MM (non-tender candidate)
  • Ryan Spilborghs, OF: $2MM (non-tender candidate)

Free Agents

  • Mark Ellis (Type B 2B), Kevin Millwood (unranked SP), J.C. Romero (unranked RP)

Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd has his work cut out for him this offseason.  The team needs an innings-eating starter, solutions at second base, third base, and left field, and a left-handed reliever.  The Rockies will require significant trading and creativity to get back on top, if payroll is to remain in the low-$80MM range.

If all four arbitration eligible players are retained, the Rockies would appear to have less than $15MM in payroll flexibility next year.  Fortunately, trade candidates abound in Street, Wigginton, Smith, Stewart, and Iannetta.  Those five players will earn about $21MM in total next year — a quarter of the team's expected payroll.  Iannetta is the least likely to be traded, as Wilin Rosario is probably not ready for full-time duty.  O'Dowd projects Stewart and Smith as potential platoon players next year.  If a full-time left fielder or third baseman is acquired, Stewart and Smith will become expendable.  Street and Smith might be the only veteran Rockies with decent trade value, so O'Dowd may have to part with prospects to improve the team.  The Rockies GM has implied that Stewart will be tendered a contract, but that may have been posturing.

200 innings is an arbitrary cutoff, but it's a level 39 pitchers reached in 2011.  None of them were Rockies.  Trade targets could include James Shields, Carl Pavano, Brett Myers, Jeremy Guthrie, Ricky Nolasco, Gio Gonzalez, and Jason Vargas.  Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Mike Pelfrey, John Lannan, and Wandy Rodriguez have at least shown an ability to take 180+ innings.  Finding that type of starter in free agency is less likely, and pitchers may still be reluctant to play in Colorado.  An August waiver claim on Rodriguez showed the Rockies are willing to assume a commitment in the three-year, $36MM range.  It seems odd the Rockies would consider trading prospects for any of the above pitchers when they had Ubaldo Jimenez set to earn $18MM over 2012-14.  Obviously, O'Dowd feels strongly about Drew Pomeranz and Alex White.  Additionally he probably felt Jimenez's stock would trend downward. 

In the Rockies' search for a right-handed bat, Michael Cuddyer seems to possess some positive traits that Aramis Ramirez does not have.  The free agent market also features left fielder Josh Willingham.  From a trade standpoint, Michael Young, Carlos Quentin, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, and David Wright are potential matches.  It seems unlikely the Rockies will fill both third base and left field by acquiring regulars, so look for a platoon in at least one of the positions.  Ellis is a candidate to return at second base, but that position does not appear to be of primary concern to Colorado.  Similarly, left-handed relief is something the Rockies will address, but probably without making a major commitment.

The echoes from the July Jimenez trade will be felt this offseason, as O'Dowd prioritizes finding a replacement proven starter.  The longtime general manager seems prepared to add a few more major trades to his resume toward making the 2012 club a contender.

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Colorado Rockies Offseason Outlook

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Red Sox Focused On McNutt In Epstein Talks

By Tim Dierkes | October 17, 2011 at 11:10am CDT

The Red Sox are "believed to be focused" on Cubs pitching prospect Trey McNutt in the Theo Epstein compensation talks, writes Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com.  Mooney says Cubs center field prospect Brett Jackson is "untouchable and not part of the discussions," while prospects such as Josh Vitters and Matt Szczur are considered unlikely.  A source close to the talks said the Red Sox have been asking for "ridiculous combinations," writes Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.

McNutt, 22, posted a 4.55 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 0.5 HR/9 with 120 hits allowed in 95 innings for the Cubs' Double-A affiliate this year.  Baseball America ranked him second among Cubs prospects heading into the season and he was a consensus top 70 prospect in the game.  McNutt dealt with blister problems and bruised ribs in a disappointing 2011 season, and is currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League.  ESPN's Keith Law scouted him there, noting "great velocity but well-below-average command and control."

The World Series, scheduled to begin Wednesday, seems to serve as a deadline for the talks between the Cubs and Red Sox.  That is the latest point the Red Sox expect a resolution, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.  One major holdup is determining which front office members Epstein can take with him to Chicago.  Silverman's informed speculation suggests Red Sox vice president of baseball operations Brian O'Halloran, special assistant to the GM Dave Finley, and head athletic director and assistant director of medical services Mike Reinold "could be part of Epstein's request."  Senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes and assistant GM Jason McLeod could be candidates to come from the Padres.       

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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Theo Epstein Trey McNutt

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Brewers Owner Will Try For Prince

By Tim Dierkes | October 17, 2011 at 10:13am CDT

"We'll be in the game" for free agent first baseman Prince Fielder, Brewers owner Mark Attansio told reporters last night (including Steve Haywood of ESPN 540) after his team was eliminated from the playoffs.  Attanasio said, "We'd love to bring the big guy back," but noted that he'd like to have some distance from the season so that emotions are not an issue.

Fielder received an ovation from Brewers fans last night, as many believed his eighth inning at-bat was his last for the team that drafted him almost a decade ago.  Fielder deflected questions about whether he'll be back next year, and seemed annoyed when pressed.  In September, he admitted 2011 was "probably the last year" he'd be with Milwaukee.    

Agent Scott Boras could begin by attempting to top his own record contract for a first baseman, the eight year, $180MM deal Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees three years ago.  Boras drew that comparison publicly in July of 2010.  Boras could also make a case to beat the $184MM given to Joe Mauer in March of 2010, especially since Prince has been so durable, tweets Peter Gammons.  However, there are some who see Fielder around Adrian Gonzalez's seven year, $154MM deal, reported SI's Jon Heyman.  Mauer helps Boras, and Gonzalez hurts him, but neither is a great comparable since they weren't signed on the open market.  

I'd be very surprised to see the Brewers re-sign Fielder within the exclusive negotation period.  I think if he hits the open market and finds the bids disappointing, then a window opens for the Brewers.  Boras has occasionally fallen well short of the early buzz for certain free agent clients.  Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon come to mind from recent years.  After the '08 season, a four-year, $100MM figure was floated for Manny, but the Dodgers held the line and got him for two years and $45MM.  The Yankees and Red Sox are likely to sit out the Fielder sweepstakes, and Prince is not a great fit for the Nationals.  The remaining potential suitors are not known for record-breaking contracts, with the possible exception of the Cubs.

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Milwaukee Brewers Prince Fielder

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Jeremy Accardo Elects Free Agency

By Tim Dierkes | October 17, 2011 at 9:31am CDT

Reliever Jeremy Accardo is the latest addition to our 2012 free agents list, after refusing last week's outright assignment from the Orioles.  Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com posted the news on Twitter.

Accardo, 29, posted a 5.73 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, and 37.4% groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings for the Orioles this year.  The Arizona resident was designated for assignment in June and accepted a Triple-A assignment, but was re-added to the 40-man in September.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Jeremy Accardo

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Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers

By Tim Dierkes | October 17, 2011 at 8:28am CDT

The Brewers came up short last night, and now one of the many concerns for GM Doug Melvin will be the status of his nine arbitration eligible players.

  • First time: Casey McGehee, Nyjer Morgan, George Kottaras, Mitch Stetter
  • Second time: Kameron Loe, Manny Parra, Josh Wilson
  • Third time: Shaun Marcum, Carlos Gomez

Kottaras, Stetter, Wilson, and Parra appear to be non-tender candidates.  Parra missed all of 2011, eventually needing elbow surgery, and he'd be owed a minimum of $960K if tendered a contract.  The other three are in the $700-800K range, so a case could be made for keeping them.  Kottaras was viewed as expendable by the Brewers when they outrighted him in April, though he ended up being useful in limited duty.  Stetter missed most of the season with a hip injury, while Wilson didn't do anything noteworthy.

We can't rule out the possibility of a McGehee non-tender, but a trade seems more likely.  The 29-year-old third baseman had a lost 2011 season, but he hit .291/.346/.477 over 1,064 plate appearances the previous two years.  At a projected $3.1MM, some team will want to give him a shot.

Marcum is the team's most expensive arbitration eligible player at a projected $6.8MM.  Peers such as Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, John Danks, and Joe Saunders project in the $8-9MM range, so we'll have to see if they lift Marcum up a bit.  Loe ($2.8MM), Morgan ($1.9MM), and Gomez ($1.8MM) should also be tendered contracts.  Gomez had a rough year, missing time with a broken clavicle, but at $1.8MM his defense should make him worth retaining.

Including buyouts for Yuniesky Betancourt and Francisco Rodriguez, the Brewers have about $58.58MM in contractual commitments for 2012.  If they retain McGehee, Morgan, Loe, Marcum, and Gomez, that'd add $16.4MM for a total of about $75MM.  Assuming a steady payroll, that'd leave less than $9MM in 2012 flexibility before accounting for minimum salary players.  McGehee's salary could be shedded, but without a payroll increase the Brewers do not have much room to spend this winter.  

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Arbitration Eligibles Milwaukee Brewers

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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By Tim Dierkes | October 13, 2011 at 12:24pm CDT

Prepare for another offseason of short-term free agent deals from the Padres in their attempt to stop the bleeding on a perennially lousy offense.  The Friars also have more bullpen patchwork ahead than usual.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Bartlett, SS: $7MM through 2012, unless 2013 option vests
  • Orlando Hudson, 2B: $7.5MM through 2012

Contractual Options

  • Aaron Harang, Type B SP: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
  • Brad Hawpe, unranked 1B: $6MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
  • Chad Qualls, unranked RP: $6MM club option with a $1.05MM buyout

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

  • Chase Headley, 3B: $3MM
  • Tim Stauffer, SP: $3MM
  • Clayton Richard, SP: $2MM
  • Will Venable, OF: $1.8MM
  • Dustin Moseley, SP: $1.8MM
  • Nick Hundley, C: $1.6MM
  • Luke Gregerson, RP: $1.3MM
  • Chris Denorfia, OF: $1.2MM
  • Jeff Fulchino, RP: $800K
  • Joe Thatcher, RP: $800K
  • Alberto Gonzalez, IF: $800K
  • Rob Johnson, C: $700K
  • Jeremy Hermida, OF: $500K

Free Agents

  • Heath Bell (Type A RP)

Talk about a lack of commitments.  The Padres owe $11MM to their starting middle infield for 2012, and nothing beyond that.  GM Jed Hoyer has a clean slate and a payroll expected to be in the $53-55MM range, the team's highest since '08.  As I showed last week, Hoyer should have $20MM+ to work with in 2012 payroll flexibility.  At a September 29th press briefing, the GM was clear about his offseason goals.  He plans to add veteran leadership, rebuild the bullpen, cut down on strikeouts, improve the bench, and add a corner outfielder.

The 2011 Padres ranked third in ERA among NL relief squads.  However, they traded Mike Adams and Qualls and Bell are free agents.  Cory Luebke will stick in the rotation, following a midseason shift.  Those four pitchers accounted for 46% of the team's relief innings and a 2.65 ERA.  The Padres will probably be looking to make multiple Qualls-type signings, snapping up decent arms on one-year deals in the $3MM range.  The team will find plenty of willing applicants, as usual given their ballpark.  

Bell probably should have been traded too.  The closer doesn't appear interested in the team's reported proposal of two years at about $14MM and has announced his intention to deny them a chance at draft picks by accepting arbitration.  I wouldn't go much higher on a contract offer, so the best move now is to offer arbitration and see if Bell still prefers to stay in San Diego on a one-year deal.  I'm not sure that's really best for him — he's 34, he's never had a multiyear deal, and his strikeout rate took a big dip this year.  He'd probably have to endure another summer of trade rumors, too.  This offseason might be his best chance for multiyear security, and his agency could probably find a team willing to guarantee three years.  

Cutting down on strikeouts and adding a corner outfielder might have to be accomplished with one player, as the Padres' infield appears set.  Corner outfield free agents with high contact rates include Juan Pierre, Endy Chavez, and Coco Crisp.

This offseason might be a good time to shop Headley.  He's a useful player but light on power, and the Padres have third base candidates coming up in the farm system.  Power pays in arbitration, so Headley's affordability adds to his trade value.  It doesn't hurt that the free agent market offers almost nothing at his position, aside from Aramis Ramirez.  This offseason is also a good time to lock up center fielder Cameron Maybin, who was worth nearly five wins above replacement this year in a breakout season.

For the second season in a row, the Padres' rotation ERA ranked fourth in the National League.  Mat Latos, Stauffer, and Luebke make for a solid front three.  Harang or a veteran of his ilk should take another spot, perhaps with Richard and Moseley battling for the last.

The cosmetic changes discussed in this post probably won't make the Padres a contender.  They haven't ranked in the upper half of the National League in runs scored since they placed eighth in 2004, the year Petco Park opened.  With Anthony Rizzo, Jedd Gyorko, James Darnell, Rymer Liriano, and others, the team has young hitters on the way.  Several of them will need to produce at the Major League level for this team to return to prominence.

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Offseason Outlook San Diego Padres

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