Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians
The Indians are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Justin Masterson, Jack Hannahan
- Second time: Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Smith
- Third time: Fausto Carmona, Rafael Perez
Carmona would be arbitration eligible if the Indians decline his $7MM club option. He hasn't been great in terms of the categories that earn pitchers big bucks in arbitration, but he's done enough for the option to represent about $1MM in savings.
The Indians' group doesn't appear to have any non-tender candidates. Masterson projects to a healthy $4MM for his first time. Choo had been on the fast track to big arbitration earnings, but this year's dismal counting stats may keep him under $5MM for 2012. Perez's first 30+ save season should allow him to jump to $4.3MM. Cabrera's power surge should push him to $4.9MM or so. Hannahan, Smith, and Perez each project to fall in the $1.4-1.9MM salary range.
Assuming Carmona's option is exercised, these eight players should cost about $30MM in 2012. If the Indians pick up Grady Sizemore's option as well, they'll be around $56MM. That commitment is firmly in the middle of their last two Opening Day payrolls, though it doesn't account for minimum salary players.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are next as we continue our series looking at each team's arbitration eligible players.
- First time: None
- Second time: None
- Third time: John Danks, Carlos Quentin, Tony Pena
Pena is a non-tender candidate. Though he could be retained with no raise on his current $1.6MM salary, he may need Tommy John surgery and might not be able to contribute much in 2012.
Quentin has solid production in the categories arbitration favors: home runs and RBIs. That should lead to a salary in the $7.5MM range.
Danks is an interesting case for arbitration nerds. He missed around four starts for an oblique strain this summer, at a point in his career where an inning is worth about $24K and a win around $80K in salary. He's likely to come in under 180 innings and 10 wins. There are few recent comparables for a five-plus service time starter like Danks, but Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Garza are current-year comparables whose fates will be intertwined. A vintage Danks year might have resulted in a $10MM salary, but we see him closer to $8MM for 2012.
Retaining Quentin and Danks could put the White Sox around $105MM in commitments for 2012. That's well below this year's $128MM payroll, but with attendance down the team may pull back spending.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Rosenthal On Diamondbacks, Cubs, Royals
The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- Former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes talked about the work of successor Kevin Towers: "Obviously, there were some holes on the roster that needed to be addressed. Kevin addressed them very well. The bullpen killed the team in 2010. He made that group a lot better." Arizona's bullpen ranks ninth in the National League with a 3.62 ERA, after placing last in '10 with a 5.74 mark. Towers methods varied – David Hernandez was acquired in the Mark Reynolds trade, J.J. Putz received a big free agent deal, Joe Paterson came in the Rule 5 draft, and Micah Owings was signed to a minor league deal. Free agent signing Aaron Heilman was the only bust; subtract his 35 1/3 innings and the bullpen's ERA drops to 3.32.
- Cubs owner Tom Ricketts should not have given a four-year extension to vice president of player personnel Oneri Fleita before hiring a new GM, opines Rosenthal. Rosenthal writes that Ricketts has "already diminished the power of his next GM."
- Signing a major free agent starting pitcher is "almost out of the question" for the Royals this offseason.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rich Harden
In the 2009-10 offseason, the Athletics guaranteed $12MM to injury-risk starting pitchers Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer. For 2010-11, the A's made their major commitments to relievers Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour, but also picked up starters Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy for a total of $2.5MM. So far in 2011, the two righty starters have combined for a tidy 3.76 ERA in 206 innings.
Less than a third of those innings have come from Harden, who developed a lat injury in February and didn't make his season debut until July 1st. Since then Harden has made all of his scheduled starts, 11 of them heading into today's action. He seemed headed to Boston on July 30th, but the Red Sox saw something they didn't like in his medical files and killed the trade. Whatever they saw hasn't been an issue yet, as Harden made six starts in August and struck out 42. During that time the Indians won a claim on Harden, but he again stayed put.
After a terrible 2010 with the Rangers, Harden appears to have returned to the formula that worked relatively well for him in '08 and '09: a huge strikeout rate, limited hits, lots of walks, and a lot of home runs allowed. Though this approach has led to only a 4.55 ERA in 63 1/3 innings, Harden's 3.39 SIERA ranks fifth among impending free agent starting pitchers with at least 60 innings – just behind Bartolo Colon, C.J. Wilson, and Erik Bedard – though the innings cutoff was designed to include him. Harden's 10.2 K/9 is easily tops among free agent starters, and ranks third in baseball overall.
In 2008-09, Harden showed the ability to provide about 150 innings per season. However, after '10 and '11, teams might have to lower their expectation to 100 innings. Harden seems likely to continue signing one-year deals for the duration of his career, unless he takes off as a reliever at some point. His last two free agent contracts guaranteed $7.5MM and $1.5MM, and I think we can split the difference and expect a guarantee in the $4.5MM range for 2012. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported that Harden would be happy to return to the A's next year, so perhaps they'll get a bit of a discount.
Quick Hits: McGowan, Kuo, Edwin Jackson
Five years ago today, the Athletics claimed righty Jerome Williams off waivers from the Cubs. Williams pitched 30 innings for the Nationals the following year, but then didn't pitch in the Majors until last month with the Angels. Williams went through a lot in the meantime, and considers his return to the bigs "a fairy tale." On to today's Labor Day links…
- Dustin McGowan makes for another nice story; the Blue Jays reinstated him from the 60-day DL today. The former first-round pick once seemed on the cusp of big things, but he hasn't pitched in the Majors in more than three years due to a pair of surgeries on his right shoulder. He'll be one of seven arbitration eligible Blue Jays, but McGowan won't cost much to retain.
- Dodgers reliever Hong-Chih Kuo is learning to manage his anxiety better, and intends to pitch next year, writes Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. If the Dodgers tender Kuo a contract, he'll earn at least $2.18MM in 2012.
- Free agency will be "interesting," Cardinals starter Edwin Jackson tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Scott Boras client, who turns 28 on Friday, has a 3.78 ERA on the season and is on track to make 30+ starts for the fifth consecutive year.
- Reliever Bobby Jenks is probably done for the season, Red Sox manager Terry Francona told WEEI's Rob Bradford and others today. The big righty signed a two-year, $12MM deal after being non-tendered by the White Sox in December, but pitched only 15 2/3 innings for Boston due to a back injury.
Red Sox Designate Drew Sutton For Assignment
The Red Sox swapped out utility men today, designating Drew Sutton for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Nate Spears, tweets WEEI's Rob Bradford.
Both players were signed by the Red Sox to minor league deals in December. Sutton bounced up and down with the Red Sox this year, and then dislocated his finger and needed surgery last month. The 28-year-old hit .315/.362/.444 in his 60 plate appearances with the big club and has a .295/.382/.476 line at Triple-A. This year he's played all around the infield and at the outfield corners.
Arbitration Eligibles: Detroit Tigers
So far in our arbitration eligibles series we've covered all of the AL East: the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays. Now we take on the AL Central starting with the Tigers.
- First time: Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Don Kelly, Brad Thomas
- Second time: None
- Third time: Delmon Young
I can see the Tigers tendering contracts to all but Thomas. Porcello and Kelly project to be arbitration eligible as Super Twos. Starters Porcello and Scherzer should get nice first-time salaries in the $4MM range. Porcello, especially, is helped by a pre-arbitration salary of $1.536MM owing to the Major League deal he signed out of high school. Kelly might get around $700K, while Coke projects at $1.4MM. Thomas has battled elbow issues for most of the year, and the Tigers tried to outright him but had to put him on the 60-day DL. He's likely to be cut prior to the non-tender deadline.
Young's non-tender candidacy was a factor in his trade to the Tigers. His power has bounced back in 89 plate appearances with Detroit, though he's yet to draw a walk. If you look at Young's current 2011 counting stats – 7 home runs, 49 RBIs, 39 runs – they should lead to a relatively meager raise. We're thinking a $725K bump to a $6.1MM salary, a gamble the Tigers might take if they like what they see for the rest of the year.
If the Tigers retain Jose Valverde for $9MM and tender contracts to all arbitration eligibles, they'd have just under $100MM in 2012 commitments. With a 2011 Opening Day payroll of $107MM, the Tigers would have to trade someone or raise payroll to 2008-10 levels to be able to add a prominent free agent or two.
The Top Free Agent At Each Position
You can survey our free agent list for the upcoming offseason here. Today let's attempt to determine the best as each position.
- Catcher: Yadier Molina's option will be exercised, leaving Ramon Hernandez as the best available. Hernandez hasn't played in 100 games since '08, but he still easily tops a list of mostly backups at the position.
- First base: Prince Fielder has drawn more walks this year, but I still have to give the nod to Albert Pujols. Pujols began the year with a couple off of months and injured his wrist in June, but he's still among the game's best players.
- Second base: Robinson Cano's option will be exercised, and Brandon Phillips appears likely. Despite a lousy offensive year, Kelly Johnson might be the best second baseman standing.
- Shortstop: I like Jimmy Rollins, but I don't think you can argue for anyone other than Jose Reyes.
- Third base: The market for third basemen is terrible, but Aramis Ramirez remains a quality option.
- Left field: There's not much here, but Josh Willingham continues to display good power in a tough ballpark.
- Center field: His season hasn't been amazing, but Coco Crisp looks like the best available. I might prefer Grady Sizemore, but I think his option will be picked up.
- Right field: This is a position with significant free agent talent: Lance Berkman, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Carlos Beltran, even after Nick Swisher's option is exercised. This is a tough call, but I'll take Beltran. Berkman and Cuddyer could potentially enter the mix for other positions, if they're flexible on that front.
- Designated hitter: David Ortiz is the clear choice here.
- Starting pitcher: C.J. Wilson may represent better value, but C.C. Sabathia will be the best available starting pitcher if he opts out of his Yankees contract. If Sabathia re-ups quickly then Wilson would have the honors, unless Yu Darvish mounts a challenge.
- Closer: With all due respect to Ryan Madson, Jonathan Papelbon is the man here.
- Right-handed setup man: I expect Madson to continue closing, leaving our setup bracket wide open. Joel Peralta is a respectable choice, while Kerry Wood and others also merit consideration.
- Lefty reliever: Tim Byrdak, Mike Gonzalez, and George Sherrill have been tough on fellow lefties, but Darren Oliver is my pick.
Players Claimed And Pulled Back
A player who is claimed on waivers can be pulled back by his original team, and it happens regularly. It could be that the two sides just couldn't reach a deal, or it might be that the original team never intended to trade the player. Technically a player can be placed on waivers a second time, but it's rare because in that case he cannot be pulled back. Reportedly, at least 16 players have been claimed and pulled back this month:
- Ryan Dempster
- Kyle Farnsworth
- Joel Peralta
- Edwin Jackson
- B.J. Upton
- Heath Bell – claimed by Giants
- Tim Byrdak
- Chris Carpenter
- Coco Crisp
- Scott Hairston
- Rich Harden – claimed by Indians
- Ramon Hernandez
- Jason Isringhausen
- Jason Kubel – claimed by Indians
- Carlos Pena – claimed by Yankees
- Wandy Rodriguez – claimed by Rockies
Many players were placed on waivers and were not traded, including John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Paul Konerko, Matt Thornton, Brett Myers, Clint Barmes, and Craig Breslow. It's safe to assume several of these players were claimed and then pulled back. Additionally, at least 23 players have cleared waivers and can be traded to any team.
Padres Claim Hermida; Designate Phillips
The Padres claimed outfielder Jeremy Hermida off waivers from the Reds and designated catcher Kyle Phillips for assignment, tweets MLB.com's Corey Brock.
Hermida, a 27-year-old former top Marlins prospect, is hitting .319/.400/.524 in 450 Triple-A plate appearances this year. He definitely seems worth a look. Hermida will join the Padres Friday and, as Alden Gonzalez notes, will be reunited with another former Marlins prospect in Cameron Maybin.
Phillips, also 27, is struggling in his third Triple-A stint. The Padres had acquired him from Toronto in a June 2010 trade.
The claim drops the Reds' 40-man roster count to 39, a spot which could be taken by top catching prospect Devin Mesoraco in September.