Option Predictions: Starting Pitchers
Yesterday I made predictions for the 20 position players with contractual options on the horizon. Today, it's time to tackle the 10 potential free agent starting pitchers with options this offseason.
- Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout. There's a good case to be made that Carpenter is worth the $14MM net price of this option on a one-year deal. He might have value to other teams at that price, but given his 10-and-5 rights I can't see the Cardinals exercising the option and then trading Carpenter. The righty turns 37 in April, but I think the Cards could hammer out a two-year deal at a lower salary. If they can't pull that off by early November or don't want to commit due to uncertainty around Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, then I think the option will be declined.
- Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: $10MM club option for '12, $12MM for '13. These options must be decided at the same time, and no one expects Wainwright's February Tommy John surgery to prevent the Cardinals from exercising.
- Aaron Cook, Rockies: $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. The Rockies will certainly decline their side.
- Ryan Dempster, Cubs: $14MM player option, no buyout. The ball is in Dempster's court, and I think he'll exercise assuming a lower salary multiyear deal isn't agreed to first.
- Zach Duke, Diamondbacks: $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout. With Duke moved to the bullpen in July, this will be declined.
- Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM club option with a $500K buyout. Shoulder surgery officially ended Garland's season in July, and this will be declined.
- Aaron Harang, Padres: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. Harang certainly wants to stay in San Diego, and I'm leaning toward this being one of the rare mutual options that is exercised by both sides.
- Paul Maholm, Pirates: $9.75MM club option with a $750K buyout. Maholm's season ended in August with a shoulder strain. The lefty posted a 3.66 ERA and 4.07 SIERA. Interest appears mutual in an extension, but even if the shoulder issue is minor I see the Pirates declining this option.
- Roy Oswalt, Phillies: $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout. A condition of Oswalt's July 2010 trade to the Phillies was that his buyout would not be reduced whether it was the pitcher or the team declining. Oswalt missed over a month with a back injury this year, and his numbers have been down. Only Oswalt knows whether and where he'd prefer to pitch next year, but in November I think the Phillies will decline the option.
- C.C. Sabathia, Yankees: may opt out of remaining four years, $92MM. There appears to be little doubt Sabathia will opt out. The Yankees are still viewed as the favorite to sign him, but we don't know how much work needs to be done to find common ground.
Indians Designate Jerad Head For Assignment
The Indians announced today that they've designated outfielder Jerad Head for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Trevor Crowe, who was activated from the 60-day DL.
Head, 28, made his Major League debut for the Indians on August 28th, playing left field and getting an infield single against Bruce Chen. Head hit .284/.338/.526 with 24 home runs in 463 Triple-A plate appearances this year, appearing mostly at the outfield corners. The Indians signed Head six years ago as an undrafted free agent.
Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins
The Twins are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Jose Mijares, Matt Tolbert, Phil Dumatrait
- Second time: Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla, Glen Perkins
- Third time: Francisco Liriano, Jason Repko
The Twins have a lot of non-tender candidates in this bunch: Mijares, Tolbert, Dumatrait, Slowey, and Repko. MLBTR's Steve Adams points out that the success of Perkins and the likelihood of moving Brian Duensing to the bullpen could make lefties Mijares and Dumatrait expendable. Tolbert and Repko are bench players who would cost under $1MM each, but neither has provided any offense.
Momentum for a Slowey trade has been building since at least Spring Training, though his limited 2011 contribution would probably keep his salary at $2.7MM. With Kyle Gibson going down for Tommy John surgery the Twins might prefer the depth Slowey provides. So while a non-tender is possible, it's more likely that the Twins trade or keep Slowey.
Perkins and Casilla will be retained, each projected in the $1.5MM range. Liriano had an off year, plagued with shoulder issues. He projects for a $5.7MM salary in 2012, and he's too tantalizing a talent to cut loose unless major surgery becomes necessary.
The Twins could end up with Perkins, Casilla, and Liriano on next year's roster for a total of around $8.6MM. That'd put their total around $74.35MM before accounting for minimum salary players, so if the 2011 Opening Day payroll level is maintained the Twins could have over $30MM to spend in 2012 salaries.
Steve Adams and Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Quick Hits: Strasburg, Pujols, Wilken
Weather permitting, Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg will make his 2011 MLB debut tonight, almost one year from the day of having Tommy John surgery performed on his elbow. Whether or not Strasmas is cancelled, here are today's links…
- Strasburg still needs to knock a little rust off his command, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told ESPN's Jayson Stark. Stark takes the stance that the Nationals are not rushing Strasburg back. Stark's colleague Keith Law has a fantastic article discussing the Tommy John procedure and recovery, with help from pitchers Jarrod Parker and Chad Durbin. For a look at what Strasburg did during his down time and how he's changed in the last year, check out Dave Sheinin's article from the Washington Post.
- SI's Jon Heyman hears that the Cardinals are "not completely confident" Albert Pujols will remain in St. Louis, which is one reason they didn't trade Lance Berkman (Twitter link).
- The Chicago Sun-Times talked to Tim Wilken, the Cubs' director of amateur and professional scouting, about the possibility of an extension in the wake of Oneri Fleita's four-year deal. Such a move would quickly sour many Cubs GM candidates, hears Yahoo's Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Wilken recently told Baseball America's Phil Rogers that it's been 20 years since he's had the kind of ownership commitment toward draft and international free agent spending that he had in 2011.
- NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman explains why he's predicted against Yu Darvish being posted in past years, but also outlines why he can see the righty being posted this winter.
- Tigers righty Doug Fister has "basically turned himself into the modern version of Brad Radke," writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. Does he represent the best acquisition by a contender this summer? Hunter Pence belongs in that discussion as well.
Indians Claim Jason Rice
The Indians claimed minor league reliever Jason Rice off waivers from the Athletics, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The A's had acquired Rice from the Red Sox in the Conor Jackson deal last Wednesday. The Tribe made room on the 40-man roster for Rice by moving Carlos Carrasco to the 60-day DL.
Rice, 25, posted a 3.69 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 85 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. The Red Sox had obtained Rice from the White Sox in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, prior to the '09 season. Red Sox vice president of player development and amateur scouting Mike Hazen talked to Pawtucket announcer Dan Hoard about Rice's arsenal in this post from February.
Non-Tender Candidate: Luke Scott
Luke Scott had the best full season of his career in 2010, ranking sixth in the American League with a .535 slugging percentage. As a late bloomer with lightly-regarded defense, Scott has been going year to year through arbitration and is an oft-cited comparable due to the healthy raises he's received. In his last time through, he beat the midpoint of his and the Orioles' submissions and received a $2.35MM increase, bringing his 2011 salary to $6.4MM. Scott's offseason, of course, was better known for a Winter Meetings interview with Yahoo's David Brown than his arbitration raise.
Scott, 33, had his projected position changed twice during the offseason. When Derrek Lee was signed to play first base Scott became the designated hitter, and then he became the left fielder upon the Vladimir Guerrero signing.
Scott's season started out with a whimper as he battled a groin strain in April, and then a shoulder issue became public in May. He decided to play through a torn labrum in his shoulder, using a combination of rehab and a June cortisone injection. But then Scott bruised his knee in late June, and he landed on the disabled list a week later. During that DL stint the pain in his shoulder worsened, and after another cortisone shot and a rehab assignment he was activated in late July. It only took one game for Scott to realize he had to have surgery on his shoulder. From what I've heard, Scott is a disciplined and devoted offseason worker, and is expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.
Scott didn't add much in the way of counting stats in 2011 – nine home runs, 22 RBI, and 24 runs. So, we project his salary to be in the $6.4MM range again. Is that a worthwhile gamble for the Orioles, who have gotten power production this year from J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters? Scott's recovery progress leading up to the December non-tender deadline will be a big factor, but I'm leaning toward the Orioles tendering him a contract. The O's will have a lot of payroll space, and the free agent market doesn't offer much in the way of alternatives who have Scott's power potential and will sign a one-year deal under $7MM. The x factor will be a potential new GM in Baltimore, who could certainly find reasons to cut Scott as part of a mini-shakeup.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Twins Designate Chuck James For Assignment
The Twins announced today on Twitter that they've designated lefty reliever Chuck James for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot for Australia native Liam Hendriks.
James, 29, posted a 2.30 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 62 2/3 minor league innings, but was ineffective in 10 1/3 big league frames. James won 11 games in 119 innings for the '06 Braves, but he had rotator cuff surgery in September of '08 and was subsequently cut loose.
Option Predictions: Position Players
20 position players face contractual options; the deadline is typically three days after the World Series. About 14% of the regular season remains, but let's make some predictions.
- Ryan Doumit, Pirates: $7.25MM club option for 2012, $8.25MM club option for '13 with a $500K buyout. These options must be decided in tandem after this season, and despite Doumit's production when he's been healthy this year it's highly likely they'll be declined.
- Chris Snyder, Pirates: $6.75MM club option with a $750K buyout. Snyder has missed most of the season due to back surgery, so this will be declined.
- Yadier Molina, Cardinals: $7MM club option with a $750K buyout. This one is a lock to be exercised. Before the 2012 season begins, the Cardinals will have to discuss Molina's next contract.
- Kelly Shoppach, Rays: $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout. Shoppach has had a rough year, and this is likely to be declined.
- Eric Hinske, Braves: $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout. Hinske has performed about as expected, so I think this will be exercised.
- Willie Bloomquist, Diamondbacks: $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout. Rarely do we see both sides of a mutual option exercised, so I'll go with declined here.
- Robinson Cano, Yankees: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout. This will surely be exercised, and his $15MM option for 2013 is looking good too.
- Bill Hall, Giants: $4MM mutual option with a $250K buyout. Not only is this option mutual, but it's kind of an automatic decline since Hall was released by the Astros and later designated for assignment by the Giants.
- Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks: $8MM club option for 2012, $8MM club option for '13. I don't think Hill's hot hitting with Arizona is enough to keep these from being declined.
- Brandon Phillips, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout. It sounds like this option will be exercised if an extension can't be worked out, which Phillips would consider a "slap in my face." Yes, a $12MM slap in the face.
- Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers: $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout. This one is certain to be declined.
- Ronny Cedeno, Pirates: $3MM club option with a $200K buyout. I expect Cedeno's option to be declined, as the Pirates aim to upgrade at shortstop.
- Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout. This is an easy choice to decline, though both sides have mutual interest in a new deal.
- Marco Scutaro, Red Sox: $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout. This is a tough one. I think the Red Sox will decline their side of it, and it's possible Scutaro can do a little better and will decline as well.
- Casey Blake, Dodgers: $6MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout. This will certainly be declined.
- Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. I agree with MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith; this will be exercised.
- Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: $16MM mutual option. If club declines, Ramirez receives a $2MM buyout. If club exercises and Ramirez declines, he does not receive a buyout. Ramirez has had a strong year, and there's a case for the Cubs to exercise their side since it keeps him on a one-year deal, the team has some money to spend, and the free agent market offers nothing else. I think if the Cubs exercise at that slightly inflated price, Ramirez will not void, despite his desire for a multiyear deal. Ultimately I think in November the club will decline though, and then the two sides will discuss a possible new contract.
- Nate McLouth, Braves: $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout. Certain to be declined.
- Grady Sizemore, Indians: $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. Sizemore's final month should be a big factor here, but I think this will be exercised.
- Nick Swisher, Yankees: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout. This one is an easy choice to exercise.
- I've got 13 position players option being declined, with seven being exercised.
Barajas Hopes To Finish Career With Dodgers
Rod Barajas hopes to play the rest of his career with the Dodgers, the catcher told Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times. However, Dilbeck says the Dodgers are considering going cheap behind the plate next year with a tandem of Tim Federowicz and A.J. Ellis.
Federowicz will be a 24-year-old rookie next year, while Ellis will be a 31-year-old with less than a hundred games in the Majors. Typically teams prefer someone more seasoned as the backup, although Ellis did catch 515 games across nine minor league seasons.
Barajas, 36, has played to expectations after signing for $3.25MM in December. His standard good power/low on-base line comes to .236/.289/.445 in 289 plate appearances this year. Barajas noted that his comfort level is playing four or five times a week, which probably leaves more than 60 starts for the other catcher. Barajas has earned approximately $12.5MM in his career, and one way to increase his chances of staying with the Dodgers would be to drop his asking price by a few million dollars.
As Dilbeck notes, letting Barajas leave could be a way for the Dodgers to save $3MM this offseason. The Icon Sports Group client projects as a Type B free agent, but I wouldn't expect the Dodgers to offer unless they want Barajas around next year.
Furcal, Cardinals Have Mutual Interest
TUESDAY: Furcal told Strauss, "I'd want to play for St. Louis," adding that he still needs to sit down with his agent Paul Kinzer and talk business.
MONDAY: The Cardinals hope to explore a new contract with shortstop Rafael Furcal by month's end, GM John Mozeliak told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mozeliak acknowledged that making it work financially is a challenge, but a Furcal contract is on his to-do list for September. A shorter term is preferable for the team, and that's expected for Furcal since he's missed so much time due to injuries over the last few years.
Furcal, 34 in October, is hitting .228/.278/.390 in 134 plate appearances since the Cardinals acquired him at the trade deadline. Mozeliak has bigger fish to fry in potential free agents Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Chris Carpenter, so signing Furcal quickly and affordably makes sense. Technically Furcal faces a $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout. That'll be declined, but a one-year deal for $4MM plus incentives seems reasonable.