2012 Contract Issues: New York Mets
The Mets are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (9)
- Jose Reyes has spent his entire career with the Mets, and Beltran has been with them since the '05 season. There seems little chance of either player being re-signed. Both are playing well on the young season and should do well in free agency. They're also midseason trade candidates, with Reyes expected to fetch more given his lower salary. At $18.5MM, Beltran might be mostly a salary dump even if he's healthy and hitting.
- Sandy Alderson imports Chris Capuano, Chris Young, Tim Byrdak, Jason Isringhausen, Scott Hairston, and Willie Harris are up for free agency again, as well as Ryota Igarashi. Several of the pitchers may be traded this summer if healthy and pitching decently.
Contract Options (1)
- Francisco Rodriguez: $17.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout. Guaranteed with 55 games finished. K-Rod needs 47 more games finished to cause his option to vest. It can be done; he finished 57 from May onward in 2009. The Mets will either have to trade him to a team with an established closer or be very careful about his usage.
Arbitration Eligible (4)
- First time: None
- Second time: Mike Pelfrey
- Third time: Ronny Paulino, Taylor Buchholz
- Fourth time: Angel Pagan
Pelfrey has posted one good start in six tries this year. A lousy platform year might hold down his arbitration raise, but he could still reach $6-7MM. The Mets could consider trading or even non-tendering the 27-year-old righty. Pagan has been brutal and Paulino has been out of the picture, though Buchholz has been a nice find. For the sake of argument, I could see Pelfrey, Pagan, and Buchholz earning $14MM in total in 2012.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Mets' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $66.83MM, including Rodriguez's buyout. If the Mets save $10MM+ by unloading Reyes, Beltran, and Rodriguez at the trade deadline, will that money go to next year's payroll? Will Pelfrey be worth keeping around next year at $6-7MM? Even if the Mets' financial problems result in a payroll drop to the $100MM range, Alderson should still have $20MM to play with. A minority stake in the team could be sold by July, but Mets ownership will likely still be embroiled in a billion-dollar lawsuit when the 2011-12 offseason arrives. When the Mets finally have a clean financial slate, there should be a lot of payroll space to work with.
Pirates, McCutchen Discussing Extension
The Pirates are discussing a long-term contract extension with center fielder Andrew McCutchen, reports Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Kovacevic adds that "there is no sign that an agreement is imminent."
Talking to Kovacevic, McCutchen gushed about Pittsburgh and his willingness to remain with the Pirates for his entire career. McCutchen, who is represented by Steve Hammond of Aegis Sports Management, seeks a deal that "reflects potential future performance," in Kovacevic's words.
McCutchen, 24, owns a career line of .281/.362/.454 at the moment in 1,264 plate appearances. He's a couple weeks away from reaching two years of service time. He'll be at two years and 123 days of service after the season, which would have resulted in Super Two status using last year's cutoff. However, if CAA's early prediction of a 2.146 cutoff is anywhere close to accurate, McCutchen will not be a Super Two player. In that case he would be arbitration eligible after the 2012, '13, and '14 seasons. Regardless, he's eligible for free agency after the '15 season.
MLBTR's Luke Adams discussed McCutchen's extension candidacy in December, noting comparables Justin Upton and Jay Bruce. Since then another big name outfielder was extended in Carlos Gonzalez. Upton is the best comparable – he was extended between two and three years of service time and is not a Super Two. Bruce's deal would match up if you were to drop the fourth arbitration year; one other difference is that his included a club option on a third free agent season. CarGo's deal, of course, is the gold standard for those in McCutchen's service class. To line up Gonzalez's contract with Upton's, we could lop off the final-year $20MM salary and think of it as six years and $60MM.
If this gets done, I expect a six-year term for McCutchen, buying out two free agent years. Career bulk is a major factor in the arbitration process, so it should be important in a multiyear deal as well. A healthy 2011 season from McCutchen would give him a 100+ games played advantage over Upton, so I don't see why McCutchen would settle for less than $52MM.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Marlins Considering Run At Mark DeRosa
THURSDAY, 2:25pm: The Marlins have had internal discussions about third base options, but never discussed possible deals with the Giants, according to Danny Knobler of CBS Sports.com.
WEDNESDAY, 3:59pm: DeRosa is headed to the DL, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News (on Twitter). Though the repaired tendon in his wrist is fine, the area around it is inflamed. If the Marlins are going to make a run at DeRosa, it probably won't happen for a few weeks at least.
12:44pm: The Marlins "have begun weighing the merits of making a run at" Giants infielder Mark DeRosa, reports Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. DeRosa could be a solution for the Fish at third base for the remainder of the season, after which his contract is up.
DeRosa, 36, is hitting well in a small 20 plate appearance sample this season. With a crowded outfield and no openings at second base or the infield corners, the Giants may consider DeRosa expendable. Not only could they get a useful player back, but they could also clear a portion of DeRosa's $6MM salary. An extra $2-3MM would be helpful to the Giants, who may have limited payroll flexibility in the 2011-12 offseason unless they move some salary.
The Marlins considered giving the third base job to top prospect Matt Dominguez out of Spring Training, but instead sent him to Triple-A on March 24th. Eight days later Dominguez fractured his elbow. As a whole, Greg Dobbs, Donnie Murphy, Emilio Bonifacio, and Wes Helms are hitting .286/.353/.416 on the season while manning third base for the Marlins.
2013 Free Agent Class Analysis
Our 2013 MLB Free Agent list has just been posted. Since that post will be a permanent addition to the sidebar, comments on it are closed. Leave comments here instead!
The 2013 list shows players who are eligible to become free agents after the 2012 season. My system is to allow a player to only be on one list at a time, so those on the 2011 or 2012 lists are not on the 2013 one. The 2013 list is for players who are signed through 2012 (some may have '13 options) and also for those who currently have between four and five years of service time. Part of the latter group will be non-tendered after the '11 season, at which point they'll join the '12 list and be removed from '13. Now that you're sufficiently confused, let's analyze this group!
Will Join The '13 Group If '12 Options Are Exercised
Yadier Molina, Kelly Shoppach, Edwin Encarnacion, Eric Hinske, Nick Swisher, Brandon Phillips, Marco Scutaro, Grady Sizemore, Bobby Abreu, Chris Carpenter, Ryan Dempster, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Koji Uehara, Jose Valverde, Jason Frasor, Michael Wuertz, and Arthur Rhodes are among those who may join the '13 free agent class if their '12 options vest or are picked up.
On The '13 List In Name Only
Players such as Brian McCann, Ian Kinsler, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, Fausto Carmona, Gavin Floyd, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Brett Myers, James Shields, J.J. Putz, and Joakim Soria are among those with reasonable '13 options who will be removed from the list if they are exercised.
Non-Tender Candidates
Several players currently on the '13 list stand a decent chance of being non-tendered after the '11 season, making them free agents. Kevin Kouzmanoff, James Loney, Jack Cust, Mike Napoli, and Joe Saunders are candidates.
Youth Is Served
Free agents who will be under 30 for the '13 season: Miguel Montero, James Loney, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Mark Reynolds, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, Matt Cain, Matt Kemp, John Danks, Scott Feldman, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Leo Nunez, Huston Street, Carlos Villanueva, and J.P. Howell. It's not easy to accrue six years service time before you turn 30. Young will turn 27 in September of 2012, which is impressive.
$100MM Contracts Coming?
As always, we must note that many of the players currently on the '13 list will not make it to free agency after the '12 season, because they'll be locked up beforehand. However, players such as Cain, Danks, Greinke, Hamels, Stephen Drew, Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Jered Weaver could be in line for $100MM+ free agent contracts depending on how their '11 and '12 seasons go.
So Much Starting Pitching
This group will thin out before the '12 season ends, of course. But imagine a free agent class with Cain, Danks, Greinke, Hamels, Weaver, Liriano, Jeremy Guthrie, Shaun Marcum, Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Sanchez, Ervin Santana, Jake Peavy, and plenty of solid innings eaters. There is something to be said for a team sitting out the upcoming offseason and trying to snag pitching in the following one.
Finally Over
After the 2012 season, the contracts of Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand, and Carlos Zambrano are finally up. Fans of the Cubs and Giants will still be waiting for the Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito deals to expire, though.
2013 MLB Free Agents
MLBTR's up-to-date list of 2013 MLB free agents is below. These are players who are currently free agents. The player's 2013 age is in parentheses. If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us. To see who represents these players, check out our agency database.
Updated 8-30-13
Catchers
Rod Barajas (37)
Ramon Hernandez (38)
Matt Treanor (37)
First basemen
Brad Hawpe (34)
Eric Hinske (35)
Aubrey Huff (36)
Ty Wigginton (35)
Second basemen
Willie Harris (35)
Orlando Hudson (35)
Brandon Inge (36)
Adam Kennedy (37)
Freddy Sanchez (34)
Ryan Theriot (33)
Shortstops
Jason Bartlett (33)
Luis Cruz (29)
Alex Gonzalez (36)
Elliot Johnson (29)
Third basemen
Luis Cruz (29)
Chone Figgins (35)
Orlando Hudson (35)
Brandon Inge (36)
Adam Kennedy (37)
Scott Rolen (38)
Ty Wigginton (35)
Left fielders
Bobby Abreu (39)
Jason Bay (34)
Brennan Boesch (28)
Johnny Damon (39)
Chone Figgins (35)
Laynce Nix (32)
Scott Podsednik (37)
Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (34)
Scott Podsednik (37)
Grady Sizemore (30)
Dewayne Wise (35)
Right fielders
Rick Ankiel (34)
Brennan Boesch (28)
Brad Hawpe (34)
Laynce Nix (32)
Designated hitters
Bobby Abreu (39)
Johnny Damon (39)
Jim Thome (42)
Starting pitchers
Dallas Braden (29)
Jon Garland (33)
Ted Lilly (37)
Shaun Marcum (31)
Dustin Moseley (31)
Jamie Moyer (50)
Brett Myers (33)
Carl Pavano (37)
Randy Wolf (36)
Carlos Zambrano (32)
Closers
Jose Valverde (35)
Right-handed relievers
Todd Coffey (32)
Jose Contreras (41)
Francisco Cordero (38)
Juan Cruz (34)
Joey Devine (29)
Chad Durbin (35)
Livan Hernandez (38)
Bobby Jenks (32)
Rodrigo Lopez (37)
Brandon Lyon (33)
Ryan Madson (32)
Guillermo Mota (39)
Ramon Ramirez (31)
Michael Schwimer (27)
Cory Wade (30)
Left-handed relievers
George Sherrill (36)
Cot's Baseball Contracts was used in the creation of this list.
Arbitration Records: Catchers
Yesterday we looked at the arbitration records for starting pitchers. Today let's check out the records for catchers who went year-to-year.
- First time: Russell Martin – $3.9MM (2009)
- Second time: Russell Martin – $5.05MM (2010)
- Third time: Ivan Rodriguez – $6.825MM (1997)
Martin owns two of the records, as he'd compiled excellent numbers through the '08 season. Once he got to a $3.9MM base, it was easy for him to remain on top even with a down '09. The arbitration process had Martin exceeding his free agent value during the most recent offseason, resulting in a non-tender by the Dodgers. I doubt Martin minded, since he was able to choose his team and get a guaranteed contract. The Yankees can retain Martin for 2012, as he'll still be arbitration eligible.
As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith mentioned yesterday, the Cubs' Geovany Soto is currently on the year-to-year path after scoring $3MM in his first arbitration year. He'll need to top a $2.05MM raise in the upcoming offseason to beat Martin's second-time salary. That possibility is heavily dependent on what Soto does in 2011. Arizona's Miguel Montero is going year-to-year right now and Nick Hundley is heading for his first arbitration year, but they're not threatening any records.
I'm not sure about a fourth time record, but if tendered a contract the Rangers' Mike Napoli could be around $8MM. Martin probably won't be that high, plus his arbitration years were interrupted by free agency. Of course, Napoli is as much a first baseman/designated hitter as he is a catcher.
2012 Contract Issues: Texas Rangers
The Rangers are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (5)
- Starting pitcher C.J. Wilson is the Rangers' key free agent. The 30-year-old lefty has pitched well to start the 2011 season, trimming his walk rate in his first five starts. He figures to be a hot commodity if he reaches the open market. He talked to ESPN's Jayson Stark a couple of weeks ago about free agency, indicating that he'd like to stay in Texas.
- Brandon Webb remains a wild card. He is currently working in extended Spring Training, with a minor league rehab assignment the following step.
- Darren Oliver is the team's de facto closer while Neftali Feliz is out. If he can approximate his last couple of seasons the Rangers could look to retain him even at age 41.
- Long relievers Dave Bush and Brett Tomko are also eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (3)
- Arthur Rhodes: $4MM vesting option. According to Cot's, this option vests if Rhodes has 62 appearances and doesn't finish 2011 on the DL. He'll need 55 more appearances to get there.
- Colby Lewis: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout. So far this season Lewis has posted one decent start in four turns. Even with an off year, Lewis' $3MM net price would give him trade value at the least. If the Rangers decline the option they'd probably non-tender Lewis as well.
- Yoshinori Tateyama. I'm not sure the nature of Tateyama's option. At the moment, he's dominating at Triple-A.
Arbitration Eligible (8)
- First time: Andres Blanco, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison
- Second time: Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Darren O'Day
- Third time: Mark Lowe
- Fourth time: Mike Napoli
This is a potentially expensive group. Napoli is off to a great start, but will the Rangers be comfortable paying him $8MM? A strong season could push Cruz close to $7MM. Murphy could get $4MM, while Andrus and Harrison could each reach $3MM. The arbitration eligible tab could approach $30MM, assuming Napoli is retained.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Rangers' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $70.45MM if Lewis and Rhodes are retained. $30MM for arbitration eligibles puts them around $100MM, $8MM over this year's payroll. Just to retain Wilson, the Rangers will need to either raise payroll even higher or shed some salary elsewhere.
Quick Hits: Schieffer, Ranaudo, Cust
Lance Berkman's return to Houston is a popular topic today, with the best takes I've found coming from Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Astros senior director of digital media Alyson Footer. On to today's links:
- Bill Plaschke of the L.A. Times explains that new Dodgers trustee Tom Schieffer is "a hands-off-the-roster guy, famous for leaving the Rangers baseball folks alone during his tenure there, one of the main reasons he was chosen for this job." GM Ned Colletti will only have to make a case to Schieffer if he wants to go over budget.
- We have to recalculate our expectations of position players in their late 30s in the post-PED era, writes SI's Tom Verducci.
- WEEI's Alex Speier discusses the timeline of top Red Sox pitching prospect Anthony Ranaudo.
- The cases of Phil Hughes and Philip Humber demonstrate "the fickle nature of pitching," writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times wonders how much time the Mariners will give Jack Cust to start hitting. So far he's at .171/.326/.186 in 86 plate appearances, which means he's outhitting Carlos Pena.
- Player's union head Michael Weiner told ESPN's Jayson Stark the players are open to adding more playoff teams, but no proposals have been made and "it's just too early in the bargaining process to predict or guess where it's going to land." For much more on the topic, check out Stark's Rumblings and Grumblings column.
Pirates Claim Xavier Paul
The Pirates claimed outfielder Xavier Paul off waivers from the Dodgers, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Paul had been designated for assignment on April 18th to make room for Jerry Sands. The Pirates announced they transferred Scott Olsen to the 60-day DL to open up a 40-man roster spot for Paul. They'll make a 25-man roster move once Paul reports to Pittsburgh.
Paul, 26, hit .325/.384/.579 in 250 Triple-A plate appearances last year, playing all three outfield positions in his third stint at the level. The success did not carry over to the big leagues. Paul last cracked a Baseball America handbook prior to the 2010 season, at which point he was rated a couple of spots ahead of Sands at 23rd among Dodgers prospects. BA praised Paul's raw talent, but said he doesn't have enough power to compensate for his strikeouts. He's a good defender with plus speed.
Paul is the ninth player Pirates GM Neal Huntington has claimed off waivers since the beginning of 2010, according to MLBTR's Transaction Tracker.
Arbitration Records: Starting Pitchers
Several arbitration records could fall in 2012. Here's my best attempt at finding the current records for starting pitchers who went year-to-year.
- First time: Dontrelle Willis – $4.35MM (2006). If you count the $100K in award bonuses Jered Weaver earned last year, he's the record holder at $4.365MM.
- Second time: Jered Weaver – $7.37MM (2011). Weaver's agent Scott Boras actually aimed to push this bar up to $8.8MM, but he lost an arbitration hearing to the Angels. There does not appear to be a challenger to this record in the upcoming offseason.
- Third time: Carlos Zambrano – $12.4MM (2007). Z's $5.9MM raise had precedent: the $6MM raises Kevin Millwood and Chan Ho Park received early in the decade.
Whatever you consider the first-time record, it'll probably fall unless Clayton Kershaw and David Price sign multiyear extensions. If those two aces have their first-time salaries determined in the arbitration process, they'll probably both reach $5MM.
Weaver, who already has six wins and 49 strikeouts on the season, has a good chance of topping Zambrano's $5.9MM raise and setting a new standard for elite pitchers going to arbitration for a third time. Based on projections, Weaver should be well ahead of where Zambrano was before his third arbitration year in everything aside from ERA (in which they could be almost dead even). Boras could have a good case for a $7-8MM raise, taking Weaver to a $15MM salary in his final year before free agency.
Side note: if Weaver's salary gets to such dizzying heights, the rising tide will lift those below him like John Danks and Matt Garza. If Weaver gets to $15MM before Danks' salary is determined, Danks' agent can use that to his client's benefit.
We haven't yet mentioned Tim Lincecum, who would have eclipsed Willis' record had he not signed a two-year deal. Lincecum is untouchable, and if his 2012 salary is determined by the arbitration process it will easily top Weaver's and be an arbitration record for all non-free agent players, not just pitchers.