2012 Contract Issues: Houston Astros
The Astros are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (2)
- Clint Barmes' Astros career has just begun. He'd like to stay beyond 2011, but the team's willingness to extend him will depend on his performance.
- Jason Michaels is also eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (1)
- Bill Hall: $4MM mutual option with a $250K buyout. Hall has a standard mutual option, which is really just a way for the Astros to push some money onto next year's payroll. He didn't do anything in April to suggest the team should extend him.
Arbitration Eligible (9)
- First time: J.A. Happ, Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias, Angel Sanchez
- Second time: Nelson Figueroa
- Third time: Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, Jeff Keppinger
- Fourth time: Humberto Quintero
Not all of these players will make it to the point of being tendered contracts. Pence and Bourn are the significant cases, assuming they are not traded. Pence had a big arbitration win in February and could make the jump to $10MM in 2012 and well beyond that in '13. Bourn is controlled through '12 and is represented by Scott Boras; his salary next year could exceed $7MM. Happ could top $3MM and Keppinger is already above $2MM. I'll estimate $24MM or so to retain the key players.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Astros' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $47.25MM. That could climb to $71MM if the main arbitration eligibles are retained, which would be about $6MM below this year's reduced payroll. If Jim Crane buys the team, what path will he take? The new ownership group could purge more of the remaining veterans and build the team from the ground up, using 2012 as a consolidation year (after which Carlos Lee and Brandon Lyon will be off the books). Or, assuming players such as Pence, Bourn, Brett Myers, and Wandy Rodriguez are not traded in July, a new owner could throw around some free agent dollars and try to find a way to compete in '12.
Stark On Beltran, Jimenez, Millwood
The latest from ESPN's Jayson Stark…
- The addition of two playoff teams could have a big effect on the American League, with certain clubs being able to aim for 89 or so wins.
- The Mets seem more eager to trade Carlos Beltran than Jose Reyes or David Wright, says Stark, perhaps with a June deal possible for the outfielder. The Mets appear willing to take on a portion of Beltran's $18.5MM salary to improve the return.
- Stark says "don't be surprised" if the next labor deal makes DUIs grounds for suspension. Yahoo's Jeff Passan tweets that Shin-Soo Choo's Monday DUI makes it six already for MLB players this year.
- Several scouts feel that Ubaldo Jimenez's shoulder is bothering him, despite the team's denials. Jimenez hasn't been very impressive in any of his four starts this year.
- An official of one team that monitored Kevin Millwood feels that he "might be done" and his stuff has regressed. Millwood hopes to sign this week after opting out of his Yankees contract Monday.
Mets Notes: Sale, Mejia, Reyes, Santana
With 17% of their season in the books, the Mets are 12-16. That's good for last place in the NL East, 6.5 games back of the Phillies and Marlins. The latest on the club:
- The sale of a minority stake in the Mets is likely to be completed by the end of this month, though it's not imminent, according to ESPN's Adam Rubin. On April 22nd, Josh Kosman and Lenn Robbins of the New York Post reported that the Mets were a few weeks from choosing the winning bidder, with Ray Bartoszek, Steve Cohen, Steve Starker, and Anthony Scaramucci the finalists. According to Rubin, the sale should bring the Wilpons $200MM, with which they can pay off $47MM worth of debt.
- Yesterday the Mets announced that top prospect Jenrry Mejia has "a complete MCL tear of the right elbow," and planned to seek a second opinion after Dr. David Altchek recommended surgery. Today Andy Martino of the New York Daily News tweets that Mejia will see Dr. James Andrews soon, and Tommy John surgery is "highly likely" for the 21-year-old. Joel Sherman of the New York Post calls the injury "devastating" for a team that "needs some breaks with their more talented youngsters."
- Sherman says much has gone right for the 2011 Mets, and they're still 12-16. He thinks it's practical to start talking about trading Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jose Reyes. Sherman wonders whether retaining Reyes would even improve the Mets' chances of re-signing him, if that's something they're interested in. By the way, Sherman doesn't see the Yankees as a July suitor for Reyes but won't rule out an offseason pursuit. For my take on what the Giants could offer for Reyes in July, click here.
- Kevin Kernan of the New York Post talked to rehabbing lefty Johan Santana, who hasn't set a date for his return. Santana threw on flat ground yesterday, and the next step is throwing from the slope of the mound possibly next week. Santana, 32, is guaranteed $55MM for 2012 and '13.
The Giants And Jose Reyes
After being shut out by Tom Gorzelanny last night, the Giants rank second to last in the NL with 3.54 runs scored per game. "We're awful right now," manager Bruce Bochy told reporters last night. Pablo Sandoval, Andres Torres, and Mark DeRosa are currently on the disabled list. Aubrey Huff, Miguel Tejada, and Cody Ross have been terrible so far, while Buster Posey has failed to meet lofty expectations in the early going.
Chatter for the Giants to recall Brandon Belt is increasing, as he's killed the ball in nine games for the Fresno Grizzlies. CBS' Danny Knobler wondered this morning whether Belt can be the Posey of 2011, providing the team's offense with a jolt.
ESPN's Buster Olney speculated on another possibility this morning in his blog, a potential acquisition Giants fans inquire about every week in my chats. Mets shortstop Jose Reyes is off to a .309/.348/.439 start, similar to his career averages and a big upgrade over Tejada offensively and defensively. The Giants would have to accommodate Reyes' $11MM salary, $3.57MM of which will still be owed to him if he's acquired on July 31st. Also, the Giants "would have to give up a really, really good young player — the Mets presumably would ask for a top-of-the-line young pitcher," in Olney's opinion. Interesting side note: Olney guesses that Reyes "could be convinced to stay by a solid multi-year offer," rather than test free agency.
One factor determining the Mets' asking price for Reyes will be how many other teams are seriously in the mix for him. The Twins could make an offer, but only if they pull themselves up out of the AL Central gutter. The Athletics could use a boost at shortstop. The Brewers are a nice match, though their farm system is depleted.
The cost of renting a star position player has varied in recent years. A few examples:
- In July of 2009, the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday and $1.5MM from the Athletics for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson. Prior to the '09 season, ESPN's Keith Law ranked Wallace 19th among all prospects, while Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein had him 37th.
- In July of 2008, the Angels acquired Mark Teixeira from the Braves for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek. Marek wasn't a top 100 prospect, but he ranked sixth among Angels prospects before that season according to Baseball America. BA ranked the Halos' farm system tenth in baseball. Kotchman was 25 at the time, coming off a strong '07 season. He was under team control through 2011 and owned a career line of .274/.337/.426. Prior to his time in the Majors, BA had ranked Kotchman among their top 22 prospects four separate times.
These aren't great comparables, since Wallace was a top position player prospect and Kotchman was a decently-regarded first baseman headed for his second arbitration year. Technically the Giants have a top position player prospect in Belt, who is universally considered among the top 25 prospects in the game. I can't picture the Giants considering trading Belt's career for a couple months of Reyes, however.
If the Mets do focus on pitching, as Olney suggests, they'd have to ask for Zack Wheeler. The righty was drafted sixth overall in '09 and is one of the 55 best prospects in the game on all lists.
At the big league level, the Giants have two established starters the Mets could try to acquire. One is Jonathan Sanchez, a solid lefty with a walk problem. He's under team control through 2012; how much value would his '12 season at a salary of $8MM or so be of to the Mets? Perhaps GM Sandy Alderson could flip Sanchez for longer-term players. The Giants also have southpaw Madison Bumgarner, who is more valuable than Belt and controlled through 2016. Like Belt, Bumgarner is way too much for Reyes.
The Giants do have the pieces to acquire Reyes, depending on how far they are willing to go. I don't think it would take much more than Wheeler, if the Giants make that sacrifice. Using Wheeler to get Reyes would at least allow the Giants to keep their big league rotation intact. Building a deal around Sanchez would be easier to stomach long-term, but would leave a pretty big hole in the team's rotation. And since Sanchez is only controlled through '12, the Giants might have to further dip into their stash of prospects to appease the Mets. Though the Giants' farm system is considered among the bottom ten in the game, they do have interesting prospects beyond Belt and Wheeler.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
2012 Contract Issues: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (2)
- Starter Joel Pineiro will be the Angels' most significant free agent. Though he's missed about a dozen starts in his Angels career due to injuries, he's also maintained much of his '09 success with a 3.73 ERA in 159 1/3 innings. Pineiro might be able to repeat his two-year, $16MM deal on the open market depending on how the rest of this season goes. He gives the Angels nice depth as their fourth starter.
- The Angels will be done with Fernando Rodney, whose two-year, $11MM deal was questionable from the start.
Contract Options (2)
- Scott Kazmir: $13.5MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout. Barring a shocking performance, Kazmir will become a free agent.
- Bobby Abreu: $9MM option vests with 433 plate appearances in 2011. Abreu needs only 308 more plate appearances, so three more months should do it.
Arbitration Eligible (7)
- First time: None
- Second time: Kendrys Morales, Alberto Callaspo
- Third time: Jered Weaver, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Jeff Mathis, Reggie Willits
Weaver's arbitration case should be a big story in January and February of 2012, especially if his dominant 2011 season continues. We'll have more on this topic later, but even after losing a hearing in February many agents think he'll be around $14-15MM for '12.
Morales hasn't played since breaking a bone in his leg almost a year ago. His raise should be mild because of that. Kendrick could jump up to $6MM, and raises for the others could put the group around $34MM if everyone is tendered a contract. It is possible Mathis and Willits are cut loose, dropping the team's estimated arbitration eligible bill closer to $30MM.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Angels' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $79.117MM including Kazmir's buyout but not Abreu's. Throw in at least $39MM more for Abreu and the arbitration eligibles, and you're around $118MM. That's about $24MM shy of this year's payroll, so there is room to re-sign Pineiro while also considering a free agent or two to upgrade the left side of the infield. If an infielder surplus is created, the team could shed a few million by trading someone. They could also save on 2012 payroll by locking up Kendrick or even Weaver, if the righty is willing to buck the trend of top Scott Boras clients testing free agency.
Cubs Notes: Lilly, Derrek Lee, Millwood
After last night's loss the Cubs are 12-16, in fifth place in the NL Central and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals. The club's OBP ranks fifth in the NL, their SLG sixth, their relief ERA eighth, and their starter ERA dead last at 6.17. The latest on the team:
- Dodgers lefty Ted Lilly was "a little puzzled" that the Cubs traded him last summer rather than try to retain him, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Lilly said he was "willing to get creative to try and stay," but talks didn't get far before the July 31st deal. The Cubs shipped out Lilly and Ryan Theriot with $5.158MM remaining on their contracts, but sent $2.5MM to the Dodgers in the deal. Lilly later inked a three-year, $33MM extension with the Dodgers.
- The Cubs also traded first baseman Derrek Lee last summer, saving $1.7MM in that deal with the Braves. Lee told the Tribune's Dave van Dyck he would have returned "under the right terms," but added that Jim Hendry wouldn't have traded him if the GM had wanted him back. Both Lee and his replacement Carlos Pena are off to slow starts this year. Talking to Sullivan, Hendry rattled off several new Cubs who struggled in their first month.
- Minor league signing Todd Wellemeyer, who is recovering from a hip injury, could be in the mix along with Doug Davis to fill in as the Cubs' fifth starter when the spot comes up on May 14th, reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times yesterday. Meanwhile Tom Gorzelanny spun a gem against the Giants last night, dropping his ERA to 2.93 through five starts. The Cubs have missed Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells, though both threw off a bullpen mound Monday and are "making good progress," according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.
- One more note on the fifth starter situation: I'm hearing it's doubtful the Cubs pursue Kevin Millwood.
- Cubs fans, MLBTR has you covered with Facebook and Twitter pages as well as an RSS feed.
Millwood Hopes To Sign This Week
Veteran righty Kevin Millwood "would like to have his situation resolved this week with some big league team," tweets Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly says Millwood can't talk to teams for 24 hours after opting out of his Yankees contract yesterday. Said the pitcher, "I am waiting to see which teams have interest, if any. That's pretty much it. I'm ready. I definitely still want to pitch."
The Orioles have "mild interest" in reuniting with Millwood, according to Connolly. The 36-year-old posted a 5.10 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, and 37.2% groundball rate in 190 2/3 innings for Baltimore last year, earning $12MM on the last year of a contract signed with Texas in December of '05. That $60MM contract was earned on the heels of an ERA title for the Indians, but the first-place Tribe does not plan to pursue him now despite having Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot currently on the DL, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Millwood averaged 89 miles per hour on his fastball last year but was around 85 in his first couple of starts for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, according to Jayson Stark's sources. He seems unlikely to jump directly onto a team's 25-man roster.
Offseason In Review Series
Last month I finished up my Offseason In Review series, a labor of love that unfortunately took two months to complete. I am especially proud of the series this year because I was able to talk to executives from more than a dozen teams, which often added angles I had not considered. Next year we'll aim for an even 30 and also try to wrap it up before Opening Day. Each article discussing the 2010-11 offseason is linked below. Special thanks to Ben Nicholson-Smith for editing all of them.
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
Discussion: How Many Aces In MLB?
A week ago I kicked off a discussion among MLBTR writers about how many true ace starting pitchers there are in baseball. I was surprised to find that my own off-the-cuff list totaled 18, with another eight falling into my "borderline" group. My list of aces, in no particular order:
Adam Wainwright
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
Roy Oswalt
Cliff Lee
C.C. Sabathia
Dan Haren
Jered Weaver
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester
David Price
Tim Lincecum
Chris Carpenter
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Cain
Tommy Hanson
My borderline group:
John Danks
Yovani Gallardo
Brett Anderson
Ricky Romero
Zack Greinke
Ubaldo Jimenez
Francisco Liriano
Trevor Cahill
I didn't crunch any numbers here – just good old-fashioned gut feelings. But could there really be almost 20 ace starters in MLB? Let's see your list in the comments.
Lincecum’s Historic Arbitration Case
The Giants avoided a historic arbitration case with ace Tim Lincecum last year, agreeing to a two-year, $23MM deal. That contract just delayed the inevitable, as Lincecum will still be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season and the Beverly Hills Sports Council client is in line for an unprecedented payday.
No Comparables
When you talk to agents about Lincecum's upcoming arbitration case, you hear phrases like "uncharted waters" and "lands unknown." There is no arbitration comparable; the 26-year-old already has two Cy Young awards. Said one agent, "They will use all of the free agent numbers here, including C.C. Sabathia (even if he opts out), Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and everyone else with an impressive, cool silver and black plaque hanging in their basement. This negotiation will transcend arbitration and will be a mini free agency discussion."
The Raise Argument
All the agents I spoke to pegged Lincecum's 2012 salary in the $19-22MM range assuming he has a "normal" year. That's normal by Lincecum standards – something like last year's 3.43 ERA. That kind of season easily lends itself to an argument that Lincecum deserves much better than the $5.9MM raise Carlos Zambrano received in 2007, based on both platform year and career bulk. Lincecum is coming from a $14MM salary in 2011, so his agent Rick Thurman could demand a $7MM+ raise.
Assuming cases for pitchers such as Jered Weaver, John Danks, and Matt Garza are settled first, they could have a bearing on Lincecum. Most agents put Weaver in the $14-15MM range, but if he finds his way to $16-17MM, Lincecum's agent could argue for a bigger raise.
Another Cy Young?
Only eight pitchers have won three or more Cy Young awards, and none of them accomplished the feat by their fifth season. If Lincecum wins the award this year, he has a good case to be the highest-paid pitcher of all time. That means a salary beyond Lee's $24MM, perhaps well beyond. If Lee is worthy of five years at $24MM per, how much extra would it be worth to reduce the risk to a one-year deal? If Lincecum were a free agent after '11, coming off a Cy Young and limiting himself to a one-year deal, something like $28MM would be within reach. Multiple agents believe another Cy Young would propel Lincecum to $25MM or more for 2012.
Thinking About 2013
Lincecum is a Super Two player, meaning he's eligible for arbitration four times. If he lands a $25MM salary for 2012, the stakes would get even higher for '13. At that point even a .500 year in '12 would almost have to result in a $5MM raise, putting Lincecum at $30MM and putting the Giants in a tough spot.
Long-Term Possibilities
Lincecum might have been earning close to $20MM this year had the Giants not signed him to a two-year deal in February of 2010. The team figures to be motivated to attempt another multiyear deal. Lincecum, having already earned more than most pitchers who sign extensions during their arbitration years, might not be looking for the maximum number of years on an extension now. How about four years $90MM – $18MM in '12, $22MM in '13, and $25MM in '14 and '15? That'd allow Lincecum to reach free agency at age 31 and go for his first $100MM deal.
If he did try to maximize the term on a new contract, Lincecum could look for eight years. No matter how you slice it, an eight-year deal would exceed Sabathia's $161MM and be the largest contract ever for a pitcher.
Conclusion
The 2011-12 offseason is packed with fascinating storylines, led by possible free agency for Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Sabathia. But we may still have plenty to talk about in January and February, with all eyes on Lincecum's contract situation.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.