Rafael Soriano’s Contract
Opt-out clauses and player options often result in no-win situations for teams, as in the cases of A.J. Burnett and J.D. Drew in offseasons past. Both players were performing well enough to opt out and score much bigger contracts, a path that C.C. Sabathia could follow after the 2011 season. My initial reaction when Scott Boras negotiated two opt-outs within Rafael Soriano's three-year, $35MM deal with the Yankees was that the team made a major concession. However, upon a closer look I'm not so sure.
The most baffling aspect of Soriano's contract is the suggestion that his $11.67MM average salary represented a drop in his price tag. If that's a discount, I can't imagine what Boras was asking for at the beginning of the offseason. In January, it wasn't even clear that Soriano had a second serious suitor.
Had he not saved 72 games over the last two seasons, I imagine Soriano's salary would have been around $6MM a year, about half what he got from the Yankees and the going rate for a top setup man. Closer inflation is the reason I don't expect Soriano to opt out of his contract at either of his chances. If he puts up a strong 2011 season but saves fewer than ten games, what team would pay him more than the two years and $23.5MM left on his contract? If Soriano sets up for Rivera in 2012 as well, what team would offer him more than $12.5MM for one year? Soriano needs to hope for relief contracts to take additional leaps forward in the next two offseasons.
The main benefit to Soriano is the chance to try for a longer term after the '11 or '12 seasons. But if you factor in a reduced setup man salary on a new deal, I'm still skeptical that he'd risk opting out. A strong 2011 might allow Soriano to find a three-year deal for around $25MM, but that's not a big enough improvement over the two years and $23.5MM that would remain on his current deal. Getting three years as opposed to one after the '12 season has added appeal, but the Yankees backloaded Soriano's contract so that it'll still be a tough choice for him. For Soriano to have a clear reason to opt out at either point, he may need to be coming off a season in which he dominates and racks up 30+ saves. Since Rivera is 42 now, that is possible.
Soriano is an injury risk, and I've seen the argument that the opt-out clauses ensure he'll remain with the Yankees if he suffers a major injury. That would have been the case anyway on a normal guaranteed three-year deal.
Aside from the Yankees bidding against themselves, the biggest concern about the Soriano contract is the potential erosion of GM Brian Cashman's autonomy, as he was said to be opposed to signing Soriano due to the loss of the #31 overall draft pick to the Rays. Co-owners Hank and Hal Steinbrenner and team president Randy Levine reportedly made the final decision to sign Soriano, though Wallace Matthew's source insisted:
"Cash has not lost one iota of credibility or autonomy over this. There has been no loss of faith in him at all. Cash is in charge of all baseball operations, but he would never in a million years tell you ownership doesn't make the final decisions. It's their money, not his."
Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians
The Indians are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League/International Signings
- Austin Kearns, OF: one year, $1.3MM.
- Orlando Cabrera, 2B: one year, $1MM.
- Chad Durbin, RP: one year, $800K.
- Total spend: $3.1MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Adam Everett, Nick Johnson, Travis Buck, Doug Mathis, Anthony Reyes, Luke Carlin, Jack Hannahan, Paul Phillips
Trades and Claims
- Acquired P Joe Martinez from Pirates for a player to be named later or cash considerations
- Acquired IF Matt Lawson and cash considerations from Mariners for P Aaron Laffey
Notable Losses
Summary
Chris Antonetti's first offseason as Indians GM marked the second year in a row the team spent about three million bucks on free agents. As opposed to the Pirates and Orioles, the Indians were not willing to spend money on free agent placeholders.
The Indians flipped Kearns for Yankees prospect Zach McAllister last summer, and that might be the plan if any of the veteran signings are having decent years at the trade deadline and the team is struggling. Durbin (pictured) is a solid reliever, and getting him for $800K is good value. I liked the minor league deals for Johnson and Buck, as both have upside and opportunity if they can get healthy.
Can the Indians become the surprise contender of 2011? The offense will ideally be elevated by full seasons from Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana. Position player reinforcements could arrive in the form of top prospects Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Nick Weglarz, and Cord Phelps. But even if we optimistically grant the Indians an above-average offense, to contend they'd need breakout performances from pitchers such as Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco, a strong debut from Alex White, and improvements from several of the relievers behind Chris Perez. It's a lot to ask.
The Tribe's farm system ranks seventh in baseball, according to Baseball America, which praised the club for having best 2010 draft of any team. They're stocked at both the lower and upper levels of the minors. This is a club that will get better in a hurry, even if 2011 is not the year.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Midseason Trade Candidates: National League
We outlined our American League trade candidates here; let's head over to the National League.
The Mets and Pirates strike me as two teams unlikely to contend in 2011. The Nationals, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Padres all made win-now type moves this offseason, but at least a few of these teams will be below .500 on July 31st.
- Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Francisco Rodriguez could be big-name trade chips for the Mets if they're healthy and playing well in July. Sandy Alderson could at least listen on Mike Pelfrey and Angel Pagan to see if someone will overpay. Additionally, most of the Mets' free agent signings profile as potential trade bait – Chris Capuano, Chris Young, D.J. Carrasco, Ronny Paulino, and Scott Hairston.
- The Pirates figure to be open to offers on many of their veterans – Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit, and Lyle Overbay for example. I can also envision Neal Huntington trying to extract a significant return for Joel Hanrahan. Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz, signed to two-year deals, might stay put.
- Like the Orioles, I think the Nationals might strive for a .500 season and hold on to their veterans if they're close. If not, Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Rick Ankiel, Todd Coffey, Livan Hernandez, and Nyjer Morgan could be available.
- The Astros' actions, such as extending Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez and bringing in Clint Barmes and Bill Hall, are not those of a rebuilding club. They might find Jeff Keppinger expendable, but I'm not counting on them listening on Myers, Rodriguez, or Hunter Pence.
- Likewise the Diamondbacks aren't in rebuilding mode, so they'd have to be playing pretty badly to start shopping Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, and Justin Upton. Less-critical veterans could be on the move.
- If things go wrong for the Padres I do see them moving parts, such as Heath Bell, Ryan Ludwick, Aaron Harang, Brad Hawpe, Chad Qualls, and Jorge Cantu.
- Clubs with strong depth include the Braves and Reds at starting pitcher and the Nationals at catcher. Again, it's tough to identify an ace starter who could hit the trade block. I don't see Chris Carpenter on the move unless things are really, really bad for St. Louis.
Ian Snell Retires
Pitcher Ian Snell has retired, tweets B.J. Rains of FOXSportsMidwest.com. The Cardinals sent Snell to minor league camp and he instead elected to hang up his cleats. Snell, 29, had signed a minor league contract with the Cardinals in January after being let go by the Mariners. He was described as eager and excited just last month upon arriving in Florida.
Snell's best season was 2007, when as a 25-year-old he posted a 3.76 ERA in 208 innings. That performance earned him a three-year, $8.6MM extension, but he quickly lost effectiveness.
Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League/International Signings
- Alex Gonzalez, SS: one year, $2.5MM. Club option exercised.
- Eric Hinske, 1B/LF: one year, $1.45MM.
- George Sherrill, RP: one year, $1.2MM.
- $500K buyouts for Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel
- Total spend: $6.15MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Dan Uggla, 2B: five years, $62MM.
Trades and Claims
- Claimed OF Joe Mather off waivers from Cardinals
- Acquired 2B Dan Uggla from Marlins for IF Omar Infante and RP Mike Dunn
- Acquired RP Scott Linebrink and $3.5MM from White Sox for P Kyle Cofield
- Claimed RP Anthony Varvaro off waivers from Mariners
Notable Losses
- Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Kyle Farnsworth, Omar Infante, Mike Dunn, Kyle Cofield, Scott Diamond, Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus, Matt Diaz, Derrek Lee, Rick Ankiel
Summary
The Braves' winter kicked off with the October hiring of Fredi Gonzalez as manager. GM Frank Wren's ensuing offseason was one of the game's best, as he was able to avoid a soaring free agent market and trade for a star player at a discount.
Uggla's acquisition price and the Marlins' willingness to trade him within the division surprised me. The Braves came out smelling like roses, giving up one year of a good utility player and a hard-throwing but wild reliever. Uggla (pictured) seems to boost the Braves' offense more than most available left fielders would have. However, adding four years and $52MM for Uggla doesn't seem like much of a discount compared to his expected free agent contract. Had he not been extended, Uggla might have been looking at an additional $5-9MM over the 2011-15 seasons.
The Braves lost Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez from their pen in the previous offseason and signed Wagner and Saito as replacements. Those two have since departed as well. The Braves continued the veteran reliever cycle for just $3.2MM for Sherrill and Linebrink, also retaining arbitration eligible Scott Proctor for $750K. All three represent cases of buying low, but even if they don't bounce back the Braves will have a full season of Craig Kimbrel and other holdovers like Jonny Venters, Peter Moylan, and Eric O'Flaherty. The organization's power arms in the minors accentuate the fact that only secondary bullpen additions were needed.
I liked several of Wren's smaller moves this offseason. He retained Hinske without adding a second year. Lopez, who pitched 200 innings last year, adds rotation depth on a minor league deal. Mather is a good athlete who figures to make the team as an extra outfielder.
Because of the depth they've accumulated, the Braves were able to avoid the high end of the free agent market for first basemen, starting pitchers, and relievers. The club's rotation depth should take them far, and with many good young pitchers pushing toward the Majors they may even have a surplus soon. The Braves may be exposed in left and center field if Prado has to fill in for Chipper Jones at third base for an extended period of time. I expect Wren to be active on the trade market if the outfield does become a concern.
Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Rangers Manager Seeks Experienced Closer
Rangers manager Ron Washington seeks an experienced closer if Neftali Feliz goes to the rotation, reports MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. Washington told Sullivan he has confidence that GM Jon Daniels can find that reliever; Tim MacMahon of ESPN Dallas/Fort Worth has quotes. Feliz recently changed his mind and expressed a preference to start, which seems to match the Rangers' choice.
Sullivan names Alexi Ogando and Mark Lowe as the "leading in-house candidates" to close, but notes that neither has much ninth inning experience. Lefties Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes have seen just about everything, but they're not known for closing either.
Speculating on potentially available experienced closers, Heath Bell, David Aardsma (when he's healthy), Francisco Rodriguez, and Mike Gonzalez come to mind. The Blue Jays have four relievers with closing experience in Frank Francisco (if healthy), Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, and Jon Rauch. Dotel and Rauch, I believe, cannot be dealt without their consent until after June 15th. By the way, if you're looking for instant closer updates to help you win your fantasy league, follow @closernews on Twitter.
Midseason Trade Candidates: American League
It's never too early to try to predict which players will be traded in July. Here's a look at American League possibilities.
This is not meant as a slight toward the Orioles, Indians, Royals, and Mariners, but their chances of contention in 2011 appear slim. Given their division, the Blue Jays face long odds as well. Anything is possible; I pegged the Padres as deadline sellers before the 2010 season.
- If the Orioles shift into sell mode, veterans on one-year deals or in the last year of their contracts such as Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, Justin Duchscherer, and Cesar Izturis could be available. Though they're controlled beyond 2011, Luke Scott, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, Josh Bell, Nolan Reimold, and Felix Pie might not be off-limits either. Keep in mind that if the Orioles are hovering around .500 at the trade deadline they may decide to keep everyone or even add a piece.
- Grady Sizemore headlines the Indians' list of movable trade chips, if he has a solid, healthy first half. Fausto Carmona would be tougher to pry loose, while recent signees Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin, Orlando Cabrera, and Nick Johnson should be available. Shin-Soo Choo, though under team control through 2013, could command multiple top prospects if the Indians decide to cash him in.
- Joakim Soria could reasonably be part of the next good Royals club, so he probably won't be available. Jason Kendall, Kyle Davies, Jeff Francoeur, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Robinson Tejeda, Melky Cabrera, and Wilson Betemit should be fair game.
- The Mariners recently stated they won't be trading Felix Hernandez. Instead, Chone Figgins, Jack Wilson, David Aardsma, Jack Cust, Brandon League, Chris Ray, Manny Delcarmen, and Erik Bedard could find themselves in the rumor mill.
- The Blue Jays held on to their relievers last summer. If they lessen their demands this year, they could offer Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, and Shawn Camp. Juan Rivera, Aaron Hill, and Edwin Encarnacion seem like potential trade candidates as well.
- Kelly Shoppach and James Shields of the Rays, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron of the Red Sox, Michael Young of the Rangers, and Edwin Jackson of the White Sox could be trade chips even with these teams in contention. And don't forget the possibility of would-be contenders flopping badly and selling off parts, similar to the '10 Mariners.
- One thing you will not notice in this group of speculative trade candidates for the American League is a frontline starting pitcher. Even identifying a good surprise candidate is tough, unless things go awry for the Twins and they field offers for Francisco Liriano.
Release Candidate: Sergio Mitre
Some scouts are "convinced the Yankees are going to release Sergio Mitre," reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The club has two open rotation spots and one long relief job, which could go to Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Ivan Nova in some combination.
If the Yankees release Mitre prior to March 28th, he'd only be due 45 days termination pay, which on his $900K salary equals $222,527. If they release him after that they'd owe the full $900K, less the prorated portion of the league minimum if he signs elsewhere. So either way the bill to let Mitre go should be less than $500K.
Mitre, 30, owns a 5.03 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 1.4 HR/9 in 105 2/3 big league innings across two seasons for the Yankees, tossing another 68 innings in the minors. He's been homer-prone despite strong groundball rates. Mitre had Tommy John surgery in July of 2008, earning a release from the Marlins a few months later. He signed a split contract with the Yankees that November. While rehabbing his elbow, Mitre picked up a 50-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy. Later in his Yankees career, he was retained for the '10 and '11 seasons as an arbitration eligible player.
Would-Be Walk Years
If not for an extension widely expected to be signed with the Red Sox, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez would be entering his walk year with a chance to join Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols on the free agent market. What other players would have been free agents for the first time after the 2011 season, if not for multiyear deals signed earlier?
Adrian Gonzalez Extension Talks May Resume Soon
Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs will visit Fort Myers next week, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, and extension talks with the Red Sox for his client may resume at that time. Everything appears to be going according to plan, with a deal more likely after Opening Day. Alex Speier's December 5th article for WEEI explained why waiting until then to sign Gonzalez to an extension could save the team millions on their 2011 luxury tax bill.
Although vibes are positive from Boggs and the team, it is important to note that no agreement is in place. Morosi has the key quote from Boggs:
"We don’t have a term sheet signed. There’s nothing agreed to right now. But I fully expect we’ll start moving in a positive direction again in the near future. There is a mutual understanding of where our bottom line is. We’re going to try to pick up where we left off in December."
Reportedly, a seven-year contract in the $154MM range will get it done. Boggs told Morosi that Gonzalez assured the Red Sox he wouldn't change his December asking price.
Boggs has a pair of other young clients that I imagine he'll be checking in on in the near future: Trevor Cahill and Cole Hamels. ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted in December that the A's were exploring a Cahill extension, while Cole Hamels hopes to remain with the Phillies long-term according to Morosi and Ken Rosenthal. Hamels is under the team's control through 2012, with an eight-figure arbitration reward likely for that season.