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Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through July 3rd, 2010. The Google spreadsheet below has separate tabs for each position group. The players have about three more months to change these rankings. You can also go directly to the Google spreadsheet here, download the rankings in Excel here, and view a PDF here.
Mets Agree With 24th-Rounder To Over-Slot Deal
The Mets reached an agreement with 24th-round pick Erik Goeddel on an over-slot deal, MLBTR has learned. A source close to Major League Baseball indicated that Goeddel agreed to a contract believed to be worth just under $500K. Goeddel, a righty out of UCLA, received third-round money. He's one of the first over-slot signings, which is surprising since he's a college junior rather than a prep player. Just before the draft, Goeddel had what Baseball America's Dave Perkin called an "eyebrow-raising outing" in front of scouts.
Reached by MLBTR, Goeddel's advisor Matt Sosnick denied an agreement is in place.
Cliff Lee Rumors: Wednesday
9:25pm: An AL GM told ESPN.com's Buster Olney that he believes the Twins could acquire Lee with a package built around prospect Wilson Ramos. Rival GMs believe the Rangers may be better off holding onto their prospects than acquiring Lee.
4:15pm: The Mariners have not started making counter offers for Lee, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. Rival executives remind Olney that the Mariners may want to deal soon, since an injury would deflate Lee's trade value (all Twitter links)
3:37pm: The Mets, Yankees, Rangers and Phillies appeared to be the only teams scouting Lee last night, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Twins and Dodgers were among the interested teams that did not attend, but it is early and Lee is a known commodity, so the lack of scouts hardly means there's a lack of interest.
10:11am: The Mariners will require a blue-chip prospect in a Cliff Lee trade, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post, even though the last two Lee trades may not have included one. Sherman suggests the Mets want Lee badly, while the Yankees would just like the Ms to "keep them posted."
Sherman explains that the Mariners like, but don't love, Mets pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia. He feels that a Mets trade would have to be built around Mejia or Wilmer Flores. The Mets are willing to trade Flores in a Lee deal, reports Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog. They're reluctant to part with other top prospects. The Mets would like to trade for a starting pitcher as soon as possible, but Cerrone says the Mariners prefer to wait until after the All-Star break to trade Lee.
From the Yankees side, Sherman recommends they make Jesus Montero available. They've done so before when Lee and Roy Halladay were on the trade market. Sherman also notes that the Mariners like Yankees Double A second baseman David Adams. Baseball America ranked Adams 22nd among Yankees prospects heading into the season, and he sports a .309/.393/.507 line at Trenton. Should the Yanks prefer to pursue Lee as a free agent, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News learned that old friend C.C. Sabathia would be happy to help recruit.
In a longer blog post, Sherman elaborates on what Lee would mean for the Mets, what the Mariners will require, and how prospects are overvalued these days.
White Sox, Angels Targeting Adam Dunn?
WEDNESDAY, 1:48pm: Nationals GM Mike Rizzo never talked to White Sox GM Kenny Williams about Dunn, tweets MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Meanwhile Ladson's colleague Scott Merkin passes along via Twitter a Rizzo comment made on ESPN's Waddle & Silvy show today: "For us to move [Dunn] will be very painful and it will probably be very painful for the team that wants to acquire him." Here's the audio from ESPN Radio.
TUESDAY, 8:00am: The White Sox are targeting slugger Adam Dunn, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. Cowley says the Nationals are willing to part with Dunn and names have been discussed, but the Angels are providing competition. Cowley does not feel the $6.3MM remaining on Dunn's contract would be a problem for the White Sox, based on a recent comment by owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
Back on June 22nd, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he's been talking about an extension since spring training with Dunn's agent. That same day, Dunn told MLB.com's Bill Ladson he does not want to be traded and hates this side of baseball. Dunn does not have no-trade protection, however.
The 30-year-old Dunn is hitting .276/.366/.559 with 17 home runs in 314 plate appearances this season. The batting average would be the highest of his career, his 11.5% walk rate the lowest. The White Sox have gotten just a .218/.293/.371 line out of the DH spot, with Mark Kotsay getting the most starts there.
One other factor to consider is that as of June 21st, Dunn projected as a Type A free agent. An arbitration offer seems possible, so the Nationals would probably want to exceed the value of two draft picks.
Poll: Which Free Agents Will Play In 2010?
The Mets signed Michael Barrett yesterday, reminding us that teams can consider dozens of remaining free agents. Today's poll:
Which free agents will play in the Majors in 2010?
Click here to take the poll and here to see the results. Vote for as many players as you wish.
A Look At Wilmer Flores
Mets shortstop prospect Wilmer Flores may figure prominently into the Cliff Lee trade rumors of the next few weeks. Let's learn more about him.
Flores was ranked second among Mets prospects by Baseball America heading into the season, behind only Jenrry Mejia. He placed 41st on Keith Law's top 100 list for ESPN - one spot above Twins catching prospect Wilson Ramos. BA, with more of an industry consensus approach, ranked him 88th. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked him 84th. All of these rankings were compiled before the season, and Flores' stock has only risen.
Flores started the season at Low A Savannah, and despite being in the midst of a cold streak was promoted to High A St. Lucie recently. Though he's only 18 years old, and will be until August, Flores is raking in a tiny 28 plate appearance sample since the promotion.
Reading the opinions of the experts mentioned above, Flores is a special bat who will develop power. He is almost certainly going to move off shortstop, and Law doesn't see him at third base either. He does have a good arm, leading Goldstein to view him as a future right fielder. The prospect gurus seem most impressed that he's holding his own against much older competition.
According to Goldstein, Flores is "at least three years and a position switch away" from the Majors. Is he too far off to headline a deal for Cliff Lee? John Hickey of AOL FanHouse sees the Mariners seeking players who can make an impact around 2012, particularly outfielders and left-handed starters.
Revisiting The Burnett-Morgan-Hanrahan-Milledge Trade
On June 30th, 2009, the Pirates traded reliever Sean Burnett and outfielder Nyjer Morgan to the Nationals for reliever Joel Hanrahan and outfielder Lastings Milledge. With exactly one year in the books, which side is ahead?
Hanrahan has tossed 63 innings for the Pirates with a 3.00 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 0.43 HR/9. He's totaled 1.0 WAR for the Pirates. His fastball velocity has increased since the trade, to the point where he's averaging 95.4 mph this year. Hanrahan will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after this season, and he's under team control through 2013. He's part of a strong late-game relief trio in Pittsburgh, along with Evan Meek and Octavio Dotel.
Milledge is hitting .281/.339/.384 in 490 plate appearances for the Pirates. He's played 928 innings in left field, but has moved to right field since Jose Tabata's promotion. He's totaled 1.2 WAR for the Pirates. Like Hanrahan, Milledge is arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2011 and under control through 2013.
For the Nationals, lefty reliever Sean Burnett has a 2.96 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 0.70 HR/9 in 51.6 innings. He's totaled 0.4 WAR for the Nats. That value came entirely from 2010, as he's increased his K/9 to 8.1. He's earning $775K this year after losing an arbitration hearing in February. Burnett is under team control through 2012.
Morgan is hitting .291/.345/.368 in 530 plate appearances with 41 stolen bases in 59 attempts for the Nationals since the trade. His 2.7 WAR comes entirely from 2009, as he's actually had negative value in 2010. Morgan's '09 season ended in late August with a broken wrist. It's been a rough 2010 season offensively, and Morgan leads the league with 11 times caught stealing. Morgan has tallied 1,000 innings in center field in his time with Washington. After the season it appears that he'll miss the Super Two cutoff by a few days, meaning he will not be arbitration-eligible until after the 2011 season. Morgan is under team control through 2014.
I'd rather have Hanrahan than Burnett at this point, and the Pirates' reliever is under team control for an extra season. Morgan's last two months have been discouraging, but he might be better than Milledge defensively and is under control for an extra year. While the Nationals are ahead 0.9 in WAR, this challenge trade remains something of a toss-up a year later.
Giants Will Avoid Rental Players
Giants GM Brian Sabean is searching for a bat, reports Jeff Fletcher of AOL FanHouse. But here's Sabean explaining his limitation:
"We are not interested in free agents. We don't want to rent players. That doesn't make sense for us. We've got to find someone we can control, much like the Freddy Sanchez deal, and hope that presents itself."
Sanchez could only loosely be called a controllable player, as he had an $8.1MM club option that was considered a fallback. The Giants instead extended him at two years and $12MM in October. Sabean also told Fletcher money is not an issue, though clarified to MLB.com's Chris Haft that "it's not a bottomless pit."
As Fletcher notes, Sabean's statement means Adam Dunn, Jose Guillen, Derrek Lee, Paul Konerko, and Ty Wigginton are out. We also have to forget Russell Branyan, Adam LaRoche, Austin Kearns, Lyle Overbay, and Xavier Nady. On Monday, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star had suggested the Giants had interest in Guillen if the Royals picked up the tab.
Fletcher feels that an outfielder makes more sense for the Giants than a first baseman, unless it's Prince Fielder. Corey Hart, David DeJesus, and Josh Willingham are three other controllable names. I'll toss in Jose Bautista and Luke Scott as well. The Giants reportedly have interest in DeJesus.
The Giants may also scour the market for a setup man and even a starting pitcher, suggests Fletcher. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote yesterday that "the Giants believe their bullpen is in need of more stability, particularly from the left side."
Yanks President Expects Jeter, Rivera Back
Yankees president Randy Levine was quoted last night on impending free agents Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera:
"We don’t negotiate in public, but I would find it highly, highly unlikely if both of them were not back with the Yankees. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are the Yankees."
The comment came from a New York Times session, as reported by Benjamin Kabak of River Ave. Blues. Kabak notes that despite the pledge to avoid public negotiation, the Yankees may have already reduced their leverage.
Levine and GM Brian Cashman also touched on their approach toward Japanese scouting, the draft, and other topics, so be sure to check out Kabak's summary.