Rosenthal On Cliff Lee, MacDougal, Dunn, Valentine
Cliff Lee starts tonight at Yankee stadium, and it figures to be one of his last outings in a Mariners uniform. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his column with an examination of the market for Lee, noting that "the acquisition cost should be lower than the last two times he was traded." Rosenthal sees no obvious favorite for the lefty at this time, though Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times believes "the buzz about a possible deal with the crosstown Mets is growing louder and louder." Rosenthal's other rumorage:
- The Nationals have until Thursday to decide whether to promote Mike MacDougal. Otherwise, he can elect free agency. The hard-throwing righty has a 4.71 ERA, 5.6 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 in 21 minor league innings.
- Rosenthal confirms other reports that the White Sox and Angels like Nationals slugger Adam Dunn. He notes that Dunn "does not want to become a DH."
- One executive feels that Jose Guillen will continue to hit well with the contract year carrot dangling. Yesterday we learned from ESPN's Buster Olney that the Royals are pushing hard to move Guillen and will eat much of the $6.3MM remaining on his contract. As for David DeJesus, an exec told Rosenthal the Royals "want to hit a home run" in any trade.
- The Giants seek stability in their left-handed relief crew (currently Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler), but the need could be addressed internally.
- The Cardinals "likely will wait until at least the All-Star break to fully assess their needs." The starting pitching situation will depend on the recoveries of Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse.
- At another link, Rosenthal updates the Bobby Valentine-Marlins situation.
Odds & Ends: A-Rod, Beltre, Athletics, Rockies
Links for Tuesday, as Tigers reliever Casey Fien returns to the Majors after spending the offseason in waiver wire hell…
- The home run milestone incentives in Alex Rodriguez's contract were the brainchild of Warren Buffett, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. The milestones start with home run #660; A-Rod currently has 594.
- WEEI's Alex Speier has the interesting story of the Dodgers signing Adrian Beltre in 1994 at age 15 by way of falsified documents, including the player's recollection of the situation. I swapped emails with Fred Claire, who was Dodgers GM at the time. Claire takes responsibility for the incident, but "had no awareness that Beltre's birth date had been altered in any way, shape or form" and "would never have approved such an act."
- Joe Stiglich of the Contra Costa Times talked with scouts about the Athletics' trade chips. At least one scout prefers Ben Sheets to Kevin Millwood.
- Dave Cameron's presciption for the Rockies in this FanGraphs article: move Brad Hawpe to first base and acquire Dan Uggla. Another good read from Cameron is his takedown of the theory that Russell Branyan will bring protection for other Mariners hitters. Speaking of Branyan, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says Seattle's acquisition "stunned" rival executives.
- Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues looks at Octavio Dotel as a potential Yankees trade target, and prefers they do not pursue a reunion.
- Howard Megdal of SNY is "reluctant to deal any significant part of the Mets' future for a rental of Cliff Lee." Megdal feels that the team's window to win extends beyond 2010.
Poll: Which Position Players Will Be Traded?
Astros Sign Ramon Vazquez
The Astros signed infielder Ramon Vazquez to a minor league deal on Friday, the team confirmed to MLBTR. Vazquez has already appeared in four games for the Triple A Round Rock Express, playing shortstop and second base. The Astros' middle infield currently features Jeff Keppinger, Oswaldo Navarro, and Geoff Blum as they wait for Tommy Manzella's broken finger to heal.
The Pirates released Vazquez on April 8th, assuming his $2MM salary in the process. He was signed to a minor league deal by the Mariners eleven days later. Vazquez's '09 offensive struggles carried over to his Tacoma stint, and Matt Eddy of Baseball America reported his recent release.
Could Mets Acquire Cliff Lee Without Mejia?
Will Jenrry Mejia's posterior cuff strain prevent the Mets from trading for Mariners ace Cliff Lee? GM Omar Minaya obviously could not talk specifically about Lee when asked by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post "if the Mejia setback is a setback to trade possibilities." But Minaya kept a brave face and replied, "I don’t think so because I think we have other very good possibilities." At least one of Minaya's current players does think the team lost its chance to acquire Lee with Mejia's injury, according to Kernan.
Maybe there is a chance, given Ken Rosenthal's June 19th report for FOX Sports suggesting the Mariners want young hitters in return for Lee. At that time Rosenthal didn't think the Mets would be willing to give up Ike Davis to rent Lee. John Hickey of AOL FanHouse wrote yesterday about a consensus among Mariners insiders that the team should add talent around the Double A level in a Lee deal. More specifically, outfielders and lefthanded starters would be a good fit.
In my opinion, the Mets probably couldn't swing a Lee trade with Fernando Martinez as the centerpiece. He's hitting .248/.299/.397 at Triple A currently. Starter Brad Holt is struggling at Double A, though second baseman Reese Havens was raking before hitting the DL with an oblique injury. We heard from Rosenthal on June 7th that the Mets are high on infielder Ruben Tejada, enough that they would be reluctant to include him in a Roy Oswalt trade. In a June 23rd article, Mark Hale of the New York Post found the Mets unlikely to include Mejia, Davis, or Jonathon Niese in a Lee offer. He opined that the Mets would have to build the deal around names like Tejada, Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Jeurys Familia, and Josh Thole. From where I'm sitting, the Mets don't seem like the team that will ultimately make the best offer for Lee.
Super Two Cutoff Less Than Expected
The next Super Two cutoff will require fewer days of service time than usual, MLBTR has learned. Last year's Super Two cutoff was at two years and 139 days of service time. In previous years, the cutoff was never less than two years and 130 days. However, MLBTR has confirmed with two different team sources that the 2010 cutoff will be two years and most likely 123-125 days. Service time projections may change over the next three months, but the cutoff is likely to be in that range.
The abnormal cutoff is described by one source as an anomaly. But since the cutoff is percentage-based, the reduced service time needed for Super Two in 2010 may be the result of the recent trend in teams holding back MLB-ready prospects until late May or early June. Perhaps once Super Two-based service time manipulation became widespread, it lost its effectiveness.
The top beneficiary of the reduced Super Two requirement is Reds right fielder Jay Bruce. After this season Bruce will have two years and 125 days, and MLBTR has confirmed he'll be the Super Two with the least amount of service time. The Reds delayed his MLB debut until May 27th back in 2008, but he's still going to arbitration four times – starting after this season. Instead of earning $450K in 2011, he'll get millions. Diamondbacks second baseman Tony Abreu is another winner, at two years and 127 days after the season. Abreu can credit agent Scott Boras for fighting for an extra 30 days service time with last year's grievance. Chase Headley, at two years and 123 days after the season, will be the player with the most service time to miss Super Two status.
Looking ahead, a similar early Super Two cutoff after the 2011 season could affect a player like Matt Wieters, who could be at two years and 129 days. However, the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 11th, 2011, and the Super Two process figures to be one issue on the table.
Bobby Valentine Rumors: Monday
4:10pm: The Marlins are "strongly considering" Bo Porter, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (via Twitter). So what does that mean for Valentine? It's hard to say. Marlins president David Samson would not comment on Valentine to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post (Twitter link).
9:00am: The Marlins' flirtations with Bobby Valentine have become a confusing saga, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. On one hand, the FOX writers report that the Marlins already informed the commissioner's office that Valentine is out of the running for their manager position. Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel learned via email from Valentine last night that no formal interview has been scheduled. On the other hand, Valentine told ESPN last night that he's "in the middle of the process." One Rosenthal and Morosi source backs up Valentine's suggestion that talks are ongoing.
What's caused the impasse? Rosenthal and Morosi's sources differ, with one citing "philosophical differences" between Valentine and Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria and another pointing to opposition from president David Samson. In another column, Rosenthal deems the drama an embarrassment to the organization. He also calls the interviews of Bo Porter and Edwin Rodriguez "a mockery of Commissioner Bud Selig’s guidelines for minority hiring."
Rangers Scouted Jeremy Guthrie, Ty Wigginton
The Rangers scouted Orioles players Jeremy Guthrie and Ty Wigginton as they prepare for the trade deadline, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.
Guthrie, under team control through 2012, has a 4.30 ERA, 4.8 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 102.6 innings this year. He's allowed 13 home runs. In the same year that his salary jumped to $3MM, Guthrie's strikeout rate is getting dangerously low. Still, the Rangers could use an innings eater with Rich Harden and Derek Holland on the disabled list.
Wigginton is a versatile rental, capable of playing second base, left field, and the infield corners. He's got a .266/.351/.472 line on the season, including a lackluster June. About $1.86MM remains on his contract.
Mystery Team After Cliff Lee
A mystery team is pursuing Cliff Lee, tweets Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. According to Price, the Cardinals "may be it." Price believes that top prospect Shelby Miller is a possible chip.
Six years of Miller would be an impressive return for two-plus months of Lee, but the Cardinals would have to be intrigued by the possibility of having three aces in the rotation. Drafted out of high school, Miller is a few years away from the Majors but is said to have number one starter stuff. Since the Cardinals signed the first-round pick on August 17th of last year, he could only be traded as a player to be named later (named after a year has passed from the time of his signing).
Royals Pushing To Trade Jose Guillen
The Royals are "really pushing to move Jose Guillen," tweets ESPN's Buster Olney, and "continue to tell teams they will eat a lot of dollars." Guillen, the team's designated hitter, has $6.39MM remaining on his contract.
The 34-year-old Guillen sports a .282/.344/.470 line on the season, with strong April and June work sandwiching a rough May. Aside from his time at DH, he's tallied 103 innings in right field.
Which contenders could use a potential offensive boost? An American League club makes the most sense. The White Sox and Rays don't have much at DH. The Yankees are another consideration. The Padres and Giants could be suitors, if they'd dare let Guillen play the outfield full-time again.