Joe Nathan May Need Tommy John Surgery
Twins closer Joe Nathan has a torn ulnar collateral ligament, tweets Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Christensen's colleague La Velle E. Neal III tweets that Nathan will wait a few weeks and try to pitch with it. If that fails, he'll miss the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery.
As you might expect, the Twins "are considering contingency plans at closer," tweets Christensen. It's not easy to replace a 2.00 ERA and 40 saves, which is why the Twins are paying Nathan $11.25MM this year.
The Twins have a deep bullpen; I profiled a few backup closer options a week ago. If they decide to look outside the organization, Jason Frasor, Heath Bell, and Kerry Wood have closing experience and might be available. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports assesses the Twins' situation in this column, suggesting "the loss of Nathan transforms the Twins from AL Central favorites into mere contenders."
Odds & Ends: Smoltz, Pedro, Cardinals, Percival
Links for Monday…
- John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez will likely eventually sign with National League clubs, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He names the Cardinals, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers as potential players for the two veteran right-handers.
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak tells MLB.com's Matthew Leach that his club is going to be patient about assessing their bullpen, and is not currently seeking right-handed relief help.
- Troy Percival is in Angels camp as a guest instructor, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times. He has no plans to try another comeback.
- I named my undervalued hitters for fantasy baseball leagues over at RotoAuthority.
- Former A's and Padres exec Sandy Alderson has been tasked with revamping MLB's Dominican Republic office, reports ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr.
- Indians third baseman Jhonny Peralta told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports he'd like to remain in Cleveland beyond this year, though Morosi sees a good chance of a trade. Peralta earns $4.6MM this year, and has a $7MM club option for 2011 with a $250K buyout.
- Joe Posnanski profiles Joakim Soria, suggesting the Royals should've tried him as a starter at some point.
- ESPN's Rob Neyer learned from Michael Lewis that Jonah Hill has replaced Demetri Martin as the actor who will play Paul DePodesta in Aaron Sorkin's Moneyball movie. Brad Pitt is still slated to play Billy Beane.
Offseason In Review: Florida Marlins
Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Marlins.
Major League Signings: None
Notable Minor League Signings
- Mike MacDougal, Seth McClung, Derrick Turnbow, Jose Veras, Brian Barden, Mike Lamb, Donnie Murphy, Danny Richar, Hector Luna, Chris Schroder, Scott Strickland, Clay Hensley
Extensions
- Josh Johnson, SP: four years, $39MM.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired P Jose Alvarez and P Hunter Jones from Red Sox for RF Jeremy Hermida
- Acquired Rule 5 pick 3B Jorge Jimenez, SS Luis Bryan, and P Robert Bono from Astros for RP Matt Lindstrom
Notable Losses
- Jeremy Hermida, Matt Lindstrom, Ross Gload, Nick Johnson, Alfredo Amezaga, Kiko Calero, Brendan Donnelly
Summary
This was a typical Marlins offseason on the surface – no money spent on free agency, no arbitration offers to departing free agents, and a couple of salary dump trades. Still, the work of president Larry Beinfest and GM Michael Hill warrants a closer look.
The Marlins are known for pulling relievers off the scrap heap and getting good performances. Calero, Donnelly, and Brian Sanches were last year's minor league deal success stories. Chances are the Fish will squeeze the best out of MacDougal, McClung, Turnbow, and Veras, and they risked nothing. Lindstrom didn't have much trade value, as the best player the Marlins received was Jimenez (the eighth pick in the Rule 5 draft). Lindstrom is only costing the Astros $1.625MM this year, and you have to wonder if the Marlins sold low. In hindsight, the Marlins were right not to offer arbitration to Calero, who could only find a minor league deal and would have done better accepting arb coming off a 1.95 ERA.
Don't blame the Marlins for trading Hermida; he would've been a non-tender candidate for most teams. The Marlins are in good shape with a Chris Coghlan–Cameron Maybin–Cody Ross outfield. Credit Beinfest and Hill for hanging on to Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, as trading either probably would've hurt the team's chances in 2010. There is some debate as to whether Type B free agent Nick Johnson deserved an arbitration offer, but that might've saddled the Marlins with a contract bigger than the $5.75MM deal he signed with the Yankees. I'll reserve judgment on the Marlins' choice not to bring in a different veteran first baseman, as Gaby Sanchez comes with a passable .270/.356/.430 projection.
The Marlins had no problem investing in young talent, as they locked up Josh Johnson for four years and showed a willingness to offer $20MM to Aroldis Chapman. It'd be overly simplistic to link either pursuit to the January 12th joint statement about the Marlins' use of their revenue sharing funds; the Johnson signing and Chapman offer were already well in the works.
Let's not get too crazy with our Marlins praise, though. Have they "consistently made every effort to put the best product on the field," as president David Samson said in the statement? The Marlins could point to their highest payroll in five years, a figure that will continue to rise. But a legitimate competing team would've at least added a starting pitcher or two, as the Marlins are all question marks after Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. I won't count out a management team that coaxed 87 wins out of $37MM last year, but on paper the Marlins don't appear to be contenders.
Cubs Inquire On Jason Frasor
The Cubs inquired on Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor again, writes ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. The latest call from the Cubs comes on the heels of Angel Guzman's season-ending shoulder injury. Crasnick says the Cubs are "urgently seeking relief help."
Frasor, 32, posted a 2.50 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 57.6 innings for the Blue Jays last year. He's earning $2.65MM in his last season before free agency. Frasor profiled as a Type B in the 2008-09 Elias rankings, with 66.322 points (Octavio Dotel was the lowest Type A at 68.007). But keep in mind the Cubs have not shown an inclination to offer arbitration to departing free agents in recent years.
SI's Jon Heyman addressed the Cubs' bullpen situation in today's article, noting that GM Jim Hendry made a play for Chan Ho Park before he signed with the Yankees. Heyman writes that "few teams are foolish enough to trade away proven set-up men at this point," but the Jays cashing in on Frasor now would make sense. The price for Padres closer Heath Bell would be higher, since Bell is under team control for two seasons.
The Cubs are not known to have interest in any free agent relievers, though veterans like Russ Springer, David Weathers, and John Smoltz remain unemployed.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings
Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are up at RotoAuthority.
Bowden Talks To Epstein, Zduriencik, Reagins, Wren
Jim Bowden's weekly GM's Corner video pieces for FOX Sports make for good viewing. This week he talked to Theo Epstein, Jack Zduriencik, Tony Reagins, and Frank Wren. A few hot stove highlights:
- Epstein admitted that new third baseman Adrian Beltre would "have to have a big year" to achieve Type A status after the season, but finds at least Type B likely. Epstein noted that there's the possibility of signing Beltre long-term if he proves to be a good fit.
- Zduriencik told Bowden he was aggressive in pursuing Chone Figgins, and got the deal done within 48 hours. Also, Zduriencik mentioned that the Brewers were one pick away from taking Casey Kotchman in the first round in 2001; they instead took Mike Jones at #12 overall. I wonder if the Brewers still would've drafted Prince Fielder in '02 if they had Kotchman.
- Reagins is "not really concerned" about having a limited number of lefties in the bullpen, after the Halos lost Darren Oliver to the Rangers this offseason.
- Wren believes the Braves have "improved quite a bit" offensively, and talked up Nate McLouth, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Melky Cabrera, and Troy Glaus.
Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves
We've finished all the AL clubs in our Offseason In Review series. The Braves kick off the NL today.
Major League Signings
- Tim Hudson, SP: three years, $28MM. Includes $9MM club option for 2013 with a $1MM buyout
- Billy Wagner, RP: one year, $7MM. Includes $6.5MM club option with a $250K buyout. Vests with 50 games finished
- Takashi Saito, RP: one year, $3.2MM.
- Troy Glaus, 1B: one year, $1.75MM.
- Eric Hinske, 1B/3B/OF: one year, $1MM.
- Juan Abreu, P: one year, $400K (estimated).
- Total spend: $41.35MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Edward Salcedo, Scott Proctor, Chris Resop, Joe Thurston, Brent Clevlen, Mitch Jones
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RP Jesse Chavez for RP Rafael Soriano
- Acquired OF Melky Cabrera, P Arodys Vizcaino, P Michael Dunn, and $500K for SP Javier Vazquez and RP Boone Logan
Notable Losses
- Garret Anderson, Kelly Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Javier Vazquez, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Buddy Carlyle, Brandon Jones, Greg Norton, Boone Logan
Summary
The Braves entered the offseason with several significant free agents: Hudson, LaRoche, Soriano, and Gonzalez. GM Frank Wren led off by signing Hudson at a fair price. He then guaranteed $10.2MM to Wagner and Saito, $9MM less than Gonzalez and Soriano ultimately required. Much is riding on the elbows of the 38-year-old Wagner and 40-year-old Saito, yet the new back end of the Braves bullpen doesn't seem riskier than Gonzalez and Soriano. This was a gamble worth taking, and the Braves also came away with Chavez and the #35 and #53 picks in the 2010 draft (while losing #20 to Boston).
The pitching additions left little in the budget for other moves. Wren opted for risk/affordability at first base. Johnson was let go for nothing, though Prado may match him at the league minimum. The Hudson signing, in the view of the Braves, necessitated the trade of Derek Lowe or Vazquez. The Braves were willing to eat $9MM of the $45MM owed to Lowe, but found no takers. Instead, Vazquez was traded in a cost-cutting move that makes hurts the Braves' rotation in 2010.
Leaving Logan out of the equation, the Vazquez trade saved the Braves $8.9MM. When was the last time you saw a legitimate pitching surplus? Odds are that Vazquez will be significantly better than the Braves' worst starter in 2010. If the Braves fall two or three wins short in the NL East, we have to point to this cost-cutting move. To be fair, the Braves' front five still looks excellent.
Their lineup carries plenty of risk with Glaus and Chipper Jones. But if healthy this has to be one of the NL's best offenses – Matt Diaz carries their worst projected OBP at .349. Cabrera doesn't seem like the outfield addition the Braves needed, but can you name an affordable free agent who'd match his .296/.367/.441 projection with acceptable defense?
You could make the argument that every team would be better with an extra $11.5MM spent, and the Braves just didn't have the budget to keep Vazquez. This one stings, though, since it wasn't a win-now trade. The deal, and the Braves' offseason, will look better if Cabrera has a big year. He's part of a strong-looking club that should contend all season.
No Extension Talks Yet For McCutchen
The Pirates have yet to approach center fielder Andrew McCutchen about a long-term extension, reports Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Team president Frank Coonelly explained that while McCutchen is the type of player they'd want to lock up, "the earlier you go, the more risk you take on." McCutchen has only 108 big league games under his belt.
McCutchen told Kovacevic that "it would be cool" to sign a Justin Upton-like extension. But as the player noted, Upton has significantly more time in the Majors. I'm not sure he's the right comparable anyway.
McCutchen won't even be arbitration-eligible until after the 2012 season. The model for an extension might come from this group of signed center fielders: Grady Sizemore, Shane Victorino, Franklin Gutierrez, Curtis Granderson, Nate McLouth, Chris Young, and David DeJesus. How much will it cost the Pirates to buy out McCutchen's three arbitration years? That might depend on how much power he displays. But the players listed gave up their arbitration years at prices ranging from $8.1MM for DeJesus to $17.25MM for Granderson. Gutierrez, signed most recently, gets $11.5MM.
Kovacevic's article touches on McLouth, as the way he was extended and traded months later was not received well. Coonelly says that the team's actions will gain the fans' trust. He also said:
We can never say never, but I will say again that the days of us needing to move players in order to get multiple players in return to rebuild the system, those are over.
Odds & Ends: Ruiz, Braves, Offenses, Yankees
Links for Thursday…
- ESPN's Jorge Arangure tweets that Jose Julio Ruiz has changed agents, which will likely complicate any negotiations. The Red Sox were reported hot on the Cuban defector's trail.
- Tim Marchman of SI.com ranks MLB's 30 general managers, from Andrew Friedman to Dayton Moore.
- Moore tells Doug Tucker of the AP that he's confident he'll continue to build the team's farm system. The Royals have tripled their budget in Latin America under Moore.
- Stephania Bell of ESPN.com explains the injury risks that come with Billy Wagner, Troy Glaus, Takashi Saito and Tim Hudson, four players the Braves signed or extended this offseason.
- I've ranked the American League offenses over at RotoAuthority, using CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool.
- Jack Curry tweets that no one has called the Yankees yet about Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre, and GM Brian Cashman won't deal until late spring anyway.
- Milton Bradley told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that "obviously, it was something with Chicago, not me." Bradley says the Cubs tried to make him a player he's not, expecting 30 home runs.
- Cubs manager Lou Piniella said on ESPN's Waddle & Silvy show that he'll determine his future after the season.
Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers
Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Rangers.
Major League Signings
- Rich Harden, SP: one year, $7.5MM. Includes $11MM mutual option for 2011 with a $1MM buyout.
- Vladimir Guerrero, DH: one year, $6.5MM. Includes $9MM mutual option for 2011 with a $1MM buyout
- Colby Lewis, SP: two years, $5MM. Includes $3.25MM club option for 2012 with a $250K buyout.
- Darren Oliver, RP: one year, $3.5MM. Includes $3.25MM club/vesting option for 2011 with a $500K buyout.
- Total spend: $22.5MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RP Clay Rapada from Tigers for a player to be named later or cash considerations
- Acquired RP Chris Ray and Rule 5 pick RP Ben Snyder from Orioles for SP Kevin Millwood and $3MM
- Acquired 1B Mitch Hilligoss from Yankees for OF Greg Golson
Notable Losses
- Marlon Byrd, Kevin Millwood, Hank Blalock, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel, Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Jennings, Eddie Guardado, Kris Benson, Joe Inglett, Greg Golson
Summary
Rangers GM Jon Daniels chose to gamble on upside this winter with the signings of Harden, Lewis, and Guerrero. Harden could provide 150 innings of sub-3.00 ball, but he could also succumb to injuries or continue his homer-prone ways of '09. Lewis could prove his massive success in Japan the last two years was no fluke, or his skills could be lost in translation. Vlad could return to his 600 plate appearance/.900 OPS glory days, or he could have another injury-plagued year.
I like the strategy. Daniels did not play it safe with the money he had available, yet his moves will not hurt the franchise long-term. Don't forget that the Rangers have the best farm system in baseball. Given the club option, Lewis could even be helping the Rangers affordably in 2012.
If Vlad and Josh Hamilton are able to stay healthy, the Rangers should have a slightly above-average offense (based on CHONE projections). Their attack looks powerful – only Elvis Andrus projects to slug under .400. The rotation seems unpredictable. We already discussed Harden and Lewis, while projections suggest Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter will regress. Options run deep, with studs like Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz in the mix, Martin Perez drawing raves, and Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison battling for innings.
The Rangers deserve credit for a strong offseason. If they're in contention midseason and need another piece, no team is better-positioned to trade for a star player.