Rosenthal On Holliday, Sheets, Valverde
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new column up in which he predicts destinations for ten of the top remaining free agents. A few worth noting:
- Rosenthal guesses the Cardinals will sign Matt Holliday for around seven years and $120MM.
- Rosenthal likes the Marlins for Aroldis Chapman.
- He sees the Cubs nabbing Ben Sheets, a possibility I hadn't really considered. It's unclear how much money the Cubs have left and how much Sheets will require.
- Rosenthal expects the Tigers to sign one of the available DH types (Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Carlos Delgado are out there).
- Rosenthal's choice for Jose Valverde, the Tigers, makes more sense than my earlier A's prediction. Rosenthal admits that the Tigers surrendering their #19 pick would be "a significant obstacle," but one person I talked to noted that it might not be since the Tigers traditionally go over slot and could therefore get a big talent later in the draft.
Remaining Top 50 Free Agents
MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list was published on November 9th. 25 of those 50 players have signed. Here's a list of the remaining 25, with fresh guesses on where they might land.
1. Matt Holliday – Cardinals. The market for Holliday this winter proved smaller than expected, making a reunion with the Cards likely.
7. Jose Valverde – Athletics. This is a stretch, but I am looking for a team that could offer $6MM and a closing job and not have to surrender their first-round pick. The Pirates seem to have set their sights on lesser relievers.
9. Adrian Beltre – Red Sox. As with J.D. Drew, the Sox seem the team most likely to value this Scott Boras client the way Boras does. Mike Lowell and the luxury tax stand in Boston's way, but they still appear more likely to offer, say, two years and $18MM than the Orioles, A's, or Mariners are.
12. Johnny Damon – Yankees. They're still a logical fit, on a one-year deal in the $6-7MM range. That's not what Damon and Boras are looking for, but it's hard to find a match beyond possibly the Braves even at that price.
13. Orlando Hudson – Nationals. I still like the Nats for Hudson, partially because unlike the Mets and Mariners, they wouldn't have to move an incumbent second baseman to make room.
14. Miguel Tejada – Twins. The Orioles, Angels, A's, Astros, and Cardinals strike me as other potential matches for Tejada, who could be a bargain in 2010.
15. Joel Pineiro – Mets. Pineiro might be the best available starting pitcher, at least considering only those who were healthy in 2009. Maybe given the lack of bidders the Mets could get him on a two-year deal.
17. Aroldis Chapman – Blue Jays. So much for this being a Red Sox-Yankees battle. It makes sense for the Jays to continue stocking up on young arms by splurging on Chapman.
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Orioles. Vlad and Dye have not generated interest outside of the Rangers. Perhaps the O's will trade Luke Scott and sign Guerrero, but I really can't find a match I like if Dye goes to Texas.
20. Felipe Lopez – Cardinals. The market for Lopez has been quiet despite his fine 2009. Even with a Holliday signing I feel that the Cardinals will spend a few million on a veteran they can plug in at third base.
21. Adam LaRoche – Mariners. Andrew Baggarly's December 12th report that LaRoche sought three years and $31.5MM from the Giants has been repeated enough that it almost seems like fact rather than rumor. That may be unfair to LaRoche. He's the best available first baseman, but this isn't 2006, and his ultimate price will be much more reasonable.
23. Jon Garland - Dodgers. I'm sticking with my original prediction, despite recent interest from the Mets, Rangers, and Twins. The Dodgers need bulk innings, and they figure to sign one veteran starter.
26. Erik Bedard – Orioles. They know him well, and could use a high-upside starter to pair with their Kevin Millwood acquisition.
28. Bengie Molina – Mets. It seems fitting that Molina's talks with the Mets would move slowly. They still seem to be the most interested club, even if they're trying to avoid guaranteeing two years.
33. Ben Sheets – Angels. Given the Rangers' signing of Rich Harden, I can't see them adding another big injury risk like Sheets. Sheets would fit nicely into the Angels' rotation, though you never know if the Mariners will swoop in.
34. Doug Davis – Twins. The Mets, Twins, and Brewers could stand to add a back-end innings guy, with lefties Davis and Washburn candidates for one-year deals.
35. Jarrod Washburn – Brewers. The Brewers signed Randy Wolf, but would probably like to add one more starter.
36. Russell Branyan - Athletics. Branyan, Delgado, Thome…take your pick on where these 1B/DH types could land. All three ought to be AL-bound. Branyan could play first base for the A's when Jake Fox is at DH.
39. John Smoltz – Mets. Smoltz fits with many clubs as an intriguing swingman. The Nationals may be maintaining interest, but I imagine Smoltz wants to play for a competitor.
40. Jermaine Dye – Rangers. If the Giants aren't interested, it's difficult to find another match for Dye.
43. Carlos Delgado – Mets. Delgado played Sunday night in the Puerto Rican winter league. The Orioles and Mets seem to have him on the radar.
44. Orlando Cabrera – Astros. The Reds and Astros are among few teams that can offer a starting shortstop position. The Astros seem a little more willing to spend this winter than the Reds.
46. Jim Thome – White Sox. He could sign pretty cheaply to return to Chicago.
48. Xavier Nady - Pirates. The idea of Nady as a regular outfielder seems to be giving teams pause. A return to the Pirates is one scenario where he could play first regularly and the outfield occasionally.
49. Kiko Calero – Cubs. A dozen teams could use Calero, who has generated surprisingly little interest. I expect the Cubs to add a late-inning arm.
GM Trade Histories: NL West
Today Brendan Bianowicz updates the GM Trade History series for the NL West. You can download the info-packed Excel spreadsheets below.
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AL East Moves
Let's take a look at the moves made by AL East teams so far this offseason.
Orioles
- Acquired/Re-signed: Chad Moeller, Michel Hernandez, Armando Gabino, Craig Tatum, Kevin Millwood, Mike Gonzalez, Garrett Atkins, Chris Lamb, Frank Mata, Alfredo Simon, Mike Hinckley, Ross Wolf, Chris George, Scott Moore, Josh Perrault
- Lost: Sean Henn, Jeff Fiorentino, Danys Baez, Radhames Liz, Chris Ray, Steven Johnson, Bob McCrory, Chris Waters
Red Sox
- Acquired/Re-signed: Tim Wakefield, Jeremy Hermida, Robert Manuel, Tug Hulett, Marco Scutaro, Scott Atchison, Fabio Castro, Ramon A. Ramirez, Boof Bonser, John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Stephen Fox, Nate Spears, Fernando Cabrera, Bob McCrory, Edwin Moreno, Angel Sanchez, Darnell McDonald, Michael Lennox, Wang-Yi Lin, Juan Bonifacio, Roberto Feliz, Gil Velazquez, Jose Iglesias, Jason Varitek, Victor Martinez
- Lost: Chris Carter, Takashi Saito, George Kottaras, Billy Wagner, Jason Bay, Hunter Jones, Jose Alvarez, Joey Gathright, Alex Gonzalez, Brian Anderson, Chris Province, Jorge Jimenez, Armando Zerpa, Jeff Bailey, Javier Lopez
Yankees
- Acquired/Re-signed: Andy Pettitte, Jamie Hoffmann, Curtis Granderson, Mike Rivera, Boone Logan, Javier Vazquez, Nick Johnson, Javier Herrera, Jon Weber, Trent Lockwood
- Lost: Josh Towers, Hideki Matsui, Brian Bruney, Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, Arodys Vizcaino, Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn, Kanekoa Texeira, Cody Ransom
Rays
- Acquired/Re-signed: Kelly Shoppach, Rafael Soriano, Richard De Los Santos, Jason Cromer, Jeff Bennett, Joe Bateman, Winston Abreu, Carlos Hernandez, Chris Richard, R.J. Swindle, Ryan Shealy, Joe Dillon, Jairo De La Rosa, Gabe Kapler
- Lost: Mitch Talbot, Akinori Iwamura, Gregg Zaun, Jesse Chavez, Michel Hernandez
Blue Jays
- Acquired/Re-signed: Sean Henn, Jarrett Hoffpauir, John McDonald, Mike McCoy, Alex Gonzalez, Zech Zinicola, Raul Chavez, John Buck, Joey Gathright, Lance Broadway, Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace, Travis D'Arnaud, Brandon Morrow
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Lost: Marco Scutaro, Joe Inglett, Roy Halladay, Michael Taylor, Johermyn Chavez, Brandon League, Wilfredo Ledezma, Bill Murphy
GM Trade Histories: NL East
Brendan Bianowicz is back with a bunch of updates to the GM Trade History series. The Excel spreadsheets linked below cover each GM's trades, free agent signings, and top draft picks via tabs along the bottom. It's interesting to see each GM's most frequent trade partner – for example, Omar Minaya has matched up with Larry Beinfest and Mark Shapiro most often in his career.
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Phillies Sign Tagg Bozied
The Phillies signed Tagg Bozied today, MLBTR has learned. Bozied, 30, hit .288/.360/.447 in 240 plate appearances for the Pirates' Triple A club this year after starting the year in Taiwan. He mainly played first base and the outfield corners. Bozied hit .306/.382/.569 for the Marlins' Triple A club in '08.
Bozied was a big-time power prospect in the Padres system several years ago, but he ruptured the patella tendon in his left knee in July of '04 jumping on home plate to celebrate a game-winning grand slam.
Carlos Zambrano’s Availability
THURSDAY, 8:23am: Hendry tells Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that Zambrano is likely to return to the Cubs next year:
"I fully expect him to come back in 2010 and pitch like the old Big Z."
WEDNESDAY, 9:56am: The availability of Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano is in question. Zambrano, 28, has a full no-trade clause and at least $53.75MM remaining on his contract over the next three years. Zambrano's agent Barry Praver has spoken out multiple times about trade rumors, recently telling the Chicago Tribune:
Jim [Hendry] has not approached us about Carlos waiving the no-trade provision of his contract, nor is Carlos interested in waiving it.
Of course, one wouldn't expect the Cubs GM to involve Praver unless an agreement is close. But Zambrano's desire to remain in Chicago is an important point.
A couple of sportswriting buddies, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman, seem to disagree on Zambrano's availability. Sherman wrote today in the New York Post that "two AL officials say the Cubs are definitely dangling Zambrano," while acknowledging Zambrano's unwillingness to approve a trade. Heyman, on Twitter, called the Zambrano trade rumors a "time waster." Not sure if we get a vote, but MLBTR's source says there's "nothing to it."
Matt Holliday Rumors: Wednesday
10:42pm: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Holliday and the Cardinals are "working toward an agreement" that is "gaining momentum." Due to this progress, a deal is possible next week. Goold says multiple contract structures have been discussed – five guaranteed years with a higher salary, and even an "eight-year framework."
7:21pm: Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated reports that Holliday didn't accept a contract offer of at least six years and "presumably" worth more than $100MM offered by St. Louis "in the past couple weeks." Heyman also tweeted that Holliday "is still talking to multiple teams."
3:20pm: ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that the Cardinals' offer to Holliday "is believed to be over $100MM" (guaranteed, he tells me). Additionally, Ringolsby replied to my email and clarified that he's been told the Cards' eight-year, $140MM offer is guaranteed both in years and dollars.
1:55pm: Talking to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, MacPhail moved quickly to shoot down Ringolsby's report of the Orioles making an eight-year, $130MM offer for Holliday.
1:01pm: Tracy Ringolsby's FOX Sports column today contains information on Matt Holliday's current contract demands as well as a couple of offers that have been made.
Ringolsby says Holliday wants to top the $18MM average salary of a four-year, $72MM deal the Rockies once offered. But if you look at our post from Monday, you'll see that the Rockies' reported offers are all over the map.
Ringolsby says the Cardinals "made a proposal that could reach $140 million over eight years." This fits with Joe Strauss' mid-December article for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that said the Cardinals offered "around $15 million-$16 million a season for up to eight years." In both cases the vague wording makes me wonder whether the offer was eight years guaranteed, or just five years plus options as some have suggested. I have an email out to Ringolsby for clarification.
Ringolsby adds that the Orioles made an eight-year, $130MM offer to Holliday. What's more, he says Andy MacPhail "did discuss the possibility of arranging a meeting between himself, Orioles owner Peter Angelos and Holliday in Austin, Texas, where Holliday is living in the offseason." If true, the Orioles could be more serious about Holliday than previously thought.