Trade Market: Shortstops
Another entry in our Trade Market series: shortstops. We covered free agents here. As always, it's one of baseball's scarcest positions.
- J.J. Hardy, Brewers. GM Doug Melvin admitted to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that it would be "very difficult" to keep both Hardy and Alcides Escobar on the roster. Due to an August demotion, Hardy is under team control for two more years (he earned $4.65MM in '09). He was very valuable in 2007-08, and the 27-year-old is easily the prize among all available shortstops (considering both trade targets and free agents). Despite Hardy's off year, expect Melvin to demand a quality starting pitcher in return.
- Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks. Drew popped up in one Tweet/rumor a month ago, but beat writer Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic heard a trade is very unlikely.
- Cristian Guzman, Nationals. Guzman had shoulder surgery this month, and the Nats intend to shift him to second base in 2010. Given the $8MM remaining on an extension Jim Bowden engineered, you have to think GM Mike Rizzo would listen to offers. UZR/150 says Guzman hasn't been a positive defensively since '04, but he hasn't been bad either.
- Maicer Izturis, Angels. There is no indication Izturis is available, but the Halos might be able to spare him or Brandon Wood given the emergence of Erick Aybar. Izturis could start at shortstop for several clubs. He will be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season.
- Brandon Wood, Angels. With 236 career plate appearances and 574 innings in the field, Wood is obviously less proven than Izturis. 2009 marked his third Triple A stint. Wood, 25 in March, remains an interesting trade target. The Angels, however, may be less inclined to let Izturis or Wood go if they fail to re-sign Chone Figgins.
- Reid Brignac, Rays. Brignac hasn't excelled offensively in the high minors, but Baseball America likes the 23-year-old's defense. Regarding his availability, MLB.com's Bill Chastain suggested in September that Brignac could have an expanded role with the Rays next year.
- Mike Aviles, Royals. Aviles had Tommy John surgery in August and hopes to be ready for Spring Training. The Royals currently have Yuniesky Betancourt and Alberto Callaspo in the middle infield, but Aviles is just a year removed from a .325/.354/.480 rookie performance. Perhaps he can be pried loose.
Heyman On Pedro, Bay, Matsui
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- The only teams interested in Pedro Martinez this summer were the Rangers, Rays, Cubs, and Phillies (the Brewers bowed out when Pedro was late to a throwing session). Heyman believes interest will pick up this time around, but Martinez may retire if the Phillies win the World Series.
- Heyman believes the Red Sox are willing to offer Jason Bay four years and $60MM; the SI writer finds that "a bit short." We know that geography won't be a factor for Bay, he'd prefer to sign early, and the Red Sox will have a contingency plan in case they can't sign him. Click here to read Bay's comments from yesterday's WEEI chat.
- Hideki Matsui admitted he's comfortable with the Yankees, but said, "I have no idea" when asked if he expects to be back next year. The 35-year-old Matsui hit .274/.367/.509 in 526 plate appearances this year, but did not play in the field. A few weeks ago, Newsday's David Lennon suggested Matsui was eager to get back to left field and would even consider trying first base next year.
Astros Decline Option On Doug Brocail
The Astros declined their $2.85MM option on reliever Doug Brocail, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. Instead they'll pay the $250K buyout on the righty, who turns 43 in May. Brocail pitched only 17.6 big league innings this year due to shoulder and hamstring injuries. Astros GM Ed Wade told McTaggart he respects Brocail but won't try to re-sign him. Instead, the Astros have interest in keeping Brocail on for a player development role.
McTaggart learned a month ago that retirement is a consideration for Brocail, but he'll play again if his shoulder is OK.
Odds & Ends: D’Backs, Iglesias, Moeller
Links for Friday…
- The Diamondbacks are looking to add a veteran setup man or two in free agency, explains MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.
- The Boston Herald's Sean McAdam has an in-depth look at Red Sox shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias.
- Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post wonders if the Orioles will pursue Garrett Atkins in free agency, assuming he is released or non-tendered. Renck also notes that if the Mets are to sign Yorvit Torrealba this winter, they'll have to settle their 2007 grievance first.
- Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun finds it "fairly likely" that catcher Chad Moeller will re-sign with the Orioles on a minor league deal, despite the team declining his $850K option.
- Tommy Bennett of Beyond the Boxscore looks at the relationship between the average MLB salary and the GDP.
Angels Yet To Call On Aroldis Chapman
The Angels have been linked to free agent lefty Aroldis Chapman via scouting director Eddie Bane. Given Chapman's friendship with Kendry Morales and interest in Southern California, the Halos could be a decent fit. However, our source says the team has yet to call to express interest.
Chapman is also friendly with Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox. We reported Chicago's interest on October 22nd, but we've since learned that their involvement has been limited.
Chapman visited with the Red Sox on Wednesday. A meeting with the Orioles will take place today. He's yet to throw for teams, so the process still appears to be in the early stages. You can check out our review of all his suitors here. One other new piece of information – Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported yesterday that the Indians have no interest.
Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Braves. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – Brian McCann – $5.5MM
C – Dave Ross – $1.6MM
1B –
2B – Martin Prado – $415K
SS – Yunel Escobar – $425K
3B – Chipper Jones – $13MM
IF – Kelly Johnson – $2.825MM+
IF – Diory Hernandez – $400K
IF/OF – Omar Infante – $2.225MM
LF – Matt Diaz – $1.2375MM+
CF – Nate McLouth – $4.5MM
RF – Ryan Church – $2.8MM+
OF – Jordan Schafer – $400K
SP – Javier Vazquez – $11.5MM
SP – Jair Jurrjens – $450K
SP – Tommy Hanson – $400K
SP – Tim Hudson – $9MM (est.)
SP – Derek Lowe – $15MM
RP – Peter Moylan – $410K+
RP – Kenshin Kawakami – $6.667MM
RP – Kris Medlen – $400K
RP – Eric O'Flaherty – $400K
RP – Boone Logan – $428K+
RP – Manny Acosta – $413K
RP – James Parr – $400K
The Braves have about $81MM committed before arbitration raises to Johnson, Diaz, Church, Moylan, and Logan. Johnson and Logan are potential trade/non-tender candidates. Regardless, the Braves should fall under $90MM (and that includes an estimated $9MM for Hudson). According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Braves began 2009 with a $96.7MM payroll. Ultimately I can see Braves GM Frank Wren having close to $15MM to spend without raising payroll.
First base and left field are two positions Wren must address this winter. The Braves intend to add a right-handed power bat; we ran through options here. At the time, I didn't realize Jason Bay and Matt Holliday might be considerations. The plan for first base might be to re-sign Adam LaRoche, though there are respectable free agent alternatives.
Wren will probably sign a reliever, as closers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez are up for free agency. Both project as Type A free agents; will the Braves offer arbitration? If either player accepts, the Braves can offer any salary they want and have that figure pitted against the submission from the player's agent. Still, Soriano earning $6.1MM this year against $3.45MM for Gonzalez might lead to an arbitration offer only for the latter. The argument against Moylan closing is that lefties handle him well. Pairing him with O'Flaherty in the ninth has potential if the Braves want to save money in the bullpen. And don't forget that Medlen had 53 strikeouts in 49.3 relief innings this year.
So the Braves have needs at first base, left field, and possibly the bullpen. Considering the inflated price of free agent power hitters, how can Wren fill all these holes on a $12-15MM budget? The Braves' pitching surplus could be the answer. Kawakami's contract isn't unreasonable. Lowe's is, given his declining peripherals. Lowe is still useful, though, so the Braves could still trade him and shed 2010 payroll even if they can't find a taker for all $15MM.
My suggestion: retain the starting pitching depth. In all likelihood Kawakami will still be needed for 20+ starts next year. The Braves could instead bump payroll to $100MM, dump Johnson and Logan, go cheap on the bullpen, perhaps backload Hudson's deal, and spend $9-10MM each for the first base and left field spots. Perhaps Johnson could even be used to acquire a decent late-inning reliever.
Trade Market: Second Basemen
Next up in our Trade Market series, second basemen. We analyzed free agents at the position here.
- Dan Uggla, Marlins. Uggla is currently neck-and-neck with Hanley Ramirez as the best-paid Marlin, and that puts the second baseman on the trading block. Uggla's 2010 salary has yet to be determined since he's arbitration-eligible, but it'll be a raise from this year's $5.35MM. That Chris Coghlan came up as a second baseman only increases the chance of an Uggla trade. As a perennial 30-home run bat, Uggla should be good value next year even with shaky defense. Uggla might be a consideration at third base for some clubs, though he hasn't played the position since 2005 in the minors.
- Luis Castillo, Mets. A year ago the Mets seemingly wanted to unload Castillo badly. After this year's .387 OBP, the rumors quieted. Castillo is still owed $12MM over two years.
- Akinori Iwamura, Rays. Iwamura faces a $4.85MM club option with a $550K buyout. If the Rays are confident in their ability to trade him, they could exercise the option. We discussed Iwamura in-depth here.
- Kelly Johnson, Braves. We learned earlier this month that the Braves might look to trade Johnson before December's non-tender deadline. Johnson lost his starting job to Martin Prado in July and suffered a wrist injury shortly thereafter. He earned $2.825MM this year and is arbitration-eligible again. He could be a great pickup if he returns to his .800 OPS ways of 2007-08.
- Mike Fontenot, Cubs. Fontenot seems likely to fall just short of the Super Two cutoff, making it an easier decision for the Cubs to retain him. It also makes him more attractive to other clubs. Fontenot struggled with regular playing time this year after posting a .909 OPS in 284 plate appearances in '08.
- Aaron Miles, Cubs. The Cubs could potentially release Miles or eat his contract and trade him for nothing. He's coming off a .185/.224/.242 performance and is owed $2.7MM in 2010. Miles dealt with shoulder and elbow injuries this year.
Adam Kennedy Hopes To Stay With A’s
Infielder Adam Kennedy would like to remain with the Athletics in 2010, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The interest is mutual; his agent has had "very positive" talks with the A's.
Kennedy, 34 in January, hit .289/.348/.410 in 586 plate appearances this year, playing second and third base. According to UZR/150, Kennedy's defense this year did not approach the performance from his heyday. The Cardinals released Kennedy in February, eating most of the $4MM owed to him. The Rays signed him to a minor league deal and traded him to Oakland for a player to be named later in May. The Rays later received Joe Dillon in that deal; he was designated for assignment in August but remained in the organization.
Slusser adds a few notes on other A's free agents:
The A's have not been in contact with free-agent infielder Nomar Garciaparra or starter Brett Tomko, though they plan to check in with Tomko as he recovers from a nerve problem in his right arm.
Trade Market: First Basemen
Next up in our Trade Market series, first basemen. We analyzed first base free agents here.
- Prince Fielder, Brewers. On October 7th, Brewers GM replied, "I don't see that happening" when asked about trading Fielder or Ryan Braun (Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reporting). What's more, SI's Jon Heyman expects the Brewers to attempt to lock Fielder up this winter. Fielder is already under team control through 2011, and there is no reason to expect him to be shopped (the Brewers have other trade chips with which they can acquire pitching).
- Adrian Gonzalez, Padres. Like Fielder, most Gonzalez trade rumors have been speculative. And Jed Hoyer knowing Theo Epstein doesn't really increase the chances of a trade to Boston. The Padres have a small payroll, but Gonzalez will only earn $10.25MM over the next two seasons. Hoyer even said long-term discussions are "on the docket." On the other hand, there were summer trade talks with the Mariners, Red Sox, and Dodgers under old GM Kevin Towers. Towers believes "it's just a matter of when" the Padres trade Gonzalez.
- Adam Dunn, Nationals. We haven't heard anything about Dunn being available, but it'd be reasonable for GM Mike Rizzo to listen. The Nats have Dunn signed for next year at $12MM.
- Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays. Currently, the Blue Jays have no plans to move Adam Lind to first base (says MLB.com's Jordan Bastian). If they change their mind, Overbay and his $7MM salary could theoretically be shopped.
- Jorge Cantu, Marlins. Here's a guy who's actually likely to be available this winter. The thinking is that the Marlins would prefer not to give Cantu an arbitration raise on his $3.5MM salary. Cantu traded some power for OBP this year.
- James Loney, Dodgers. More speculation…the Dodgers could consider trading Loney and his .399 SLG if they'd prefer more power at first base. Loney's salary is set to take a jump through arbitration this year.
- Ryan Garko, Giants. Garko is a non-tender candidate for the Giants, so it figures they'll try to trade him first. At the least, Garko handles lefties well.
- Casey Kotchman, Red Sox. Kotchman was an odd acquisition by the Red Sox, as they don't have much of a spot for him. He's similar to Loney but the asking price might be lower.
- Andy Marte, Indians. Marte's future with the Tribe is in doubt after a .232/.293/.400 performance in the bigs. He did slug .593 at Triple A this year.
- Mike Jacobs, Royals. Like Garko, a non-tender candidate. Jacobs spent most of the season as a DH.
Royals Face Options On Crisp, Olivo
MLB.com's Dick Kaegel takes a look at the Royals' two contract option decisions, which are due ten days after the World Series.
Kaegel believes the Royals will consider Coco Crisp's $500K buyout an easy choice over his $8MM option. However, Kaegel wonders if the Royals will then offer Crisp a new incentive-laden deal. Crisp said in August, "I don't know. It'd be nice to stay for a while. I like it here." The 29-year-old center fielder had rotator cuff surgery on both shoulders this summer. The weak free agent market for center fielders should work in his favor.
Catcher Miguel Olivo has a $3.3MM mutual option; both Kaegel and Royals GM Dayton Moore believe he'll test the free agent market. Catchers are also in short supply this year. While Olivo slugged 23 home runs this year, his OBP was just .292.
Don't forget the Royals' two primary non-tender candidates: first baseman Mike Jacobs and catcher John Buck. Kaegel says the Royals intend to "re-cast" their catching situation, so Buck is probably destined for free agency. It doesn't make sense to tender a contract to Jacobs, who earned $3.25MM this year and hit just .228/.297/.401 in 478 plate appearances. Between Jacobs, Buck, and Olivo, the Royals had 1,096 plate appearances of sub-.300 OBP.