Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Tigers. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – Gerald Laird – $2.8MM+
C – Alex Avila – $400K
1B – Miguel Cabrera – $20MM
2B – Scott Sizemore – $400K
SS – Ramon Santiago – $825K+
3B – Brandon Inge – $6.6MM
IF – Brent Dlugach – $400K
LF – Carlos Guillen – $13MM
CF – Curtis Granderson – $5.5MM
RF – Magglio Ordonez – $18MM
OF – Ryan Raburn – $410K
OF – Clete Thomas – $403K
DH – Marcus Thames – $2.275MM+
SP – Justin Verlander – $3.675MM+
SP – Edwin Jackson – $2.2MM+
SP – Rick Porcello – $1.025MM
SP – Nate Robertson – $10MM
SP – Jeremy Bonderman – $12.5MM
Other candidates: Dontrelle Willis – $12MM, Armando Galarraga – $435K
RP – Joel Zumaya – $735K+
RP – Ryan Perry – $400K
RP – Bobby Seay – $1.3MM+
RP – Zach Miner – $438K+
RP – Armando Galarraga – $435K
RP – Fu-Te Ni – $400K
RP – Freddy Dolsi – $407K
Non-tender candidates: Marcus Thames, Matt Treanor
The Tigers have about $116.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Laird, Santiago, Thames, Verlander, Jackson, Zumaya, Seay, Miner, and Treanor. Thames and Treanor could be non-tendered, but the raises should easily exceed $10MM. The Tigers could be approaching $130MM committed after entering 2009 at $115MM (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts).
Given the payroll limitations and his recent history, GM Dave Dombrowski does not figure to be heavily involved with free agents. Last year he went the trade route to acquire Jackson, Laird, and Josh Anderson and signed free agents Adam Everett, Brandon Lyon, Treanor, and Ni for a total of $6.5MM.
With 2009 starters Placido Polanco and Everett eligible for free agency, the Tigers' middle infield is up in the air. Sizemore is still the favorite to take over at second base despite suffering a broken ankle in the Arizona Fall League. Sizemore, 25 in January, hit .308/.378/.473 in 330 Triple A plate appearances this year. Assuming manager Jim Leyland still views Santiago as a backup player, perhaps the Tigers will re-sign Everett or add a similar affordable free agent. Internally, Dlugach merits a look.
Raburn profiles as one of the game's better fourth outfielders, so the Tigers are protected if Guillen is injured or ineffective. Despite the current plan to use Guillen as the everyday left fielder, it may make sense to non-tender Thames and let Guillen DH. The Tigers' middling offense of 2009 will need to improve mainly from within, with Granderson and Guillen capable of better seasons.
The excellent front three are set in the rotation, and the final two spots may be snagged by pricey veterans in their contract years: Robertson, Bonderman, and Willis. Bonderman, just 26, seems healthy and is being penciled in by Leyland. The Tigers have been linked to free agent Aroldis Chapman, an investment that could conceivably be part of the scouting budget. Whether Chapman could contribute in 2010 is unknown.
The Tigers face two possible late-inning losses in the bullpen in Fernando Rodney and Lyon. If Rodney feels that his 37 saves should lead to a $6MM+ salary, he should be allowed to leave. Likewise, Lyon may want a raise after posting a 2.86 ERA in 78.6 innings. Zumaya and Perry could seize the opportunity, if they keep the walks down.
The Tigers continue to be hamstrung by lousy contract extensions, but they have enough talent to compete in 2010. Bonderman, Willis, Robertson, Inge, Laird, and possibly Ordonez could be off the books after '10, so Dombrowski will gain a lot of flexibility at that point.
Jed Hoyer Notes
Jed Hoyer was introduced as the new GM of the Padres yesterday at a press conference. Notes from the day:
- Hoyer signed a four-year contract with a club option for 2014, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
- Tim Sullivan of the U-T quotes Hoyer saying, "I want to build from within." He does not want to rely on trades and free agent signings. Talking to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, Hoyer also expressed a desire to tailor the Padres to win at Petco.
- Jim Callis of Baseball America says the Padres' farm system "still lacks high-ceiling players" despite a solid 2009 draft.
- VP of scouting and player development Grady Fuson was fired, according to Center. CEO Jeff Moorad said he anticipates "more movement on the baseball side." Tom Krasovic heard that scouting director Bill Gayton will not return.
- Hoyer told Cafardo long-term contract discussions for Adrian Gonzalez are "definitely on the docket." The new Padres GM also gave Cafardo his thoughts on dealing with Theo Epstein in the future.
- The Red Sox will "spread out [Hoyer's] duties among top members of the front office," according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Also, Silverman feels that former Padres GM Kevin Towers could be open to a West Coast scouting job for the Red Sox but would be unlikely to move to the East Coast for a non-GM position.
Johjima Reaches Agreement With Hanshin Tigers
Catcher Kenji Johjima reached an agreement with the Hanshin Tigers, according to reports passed along by NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman. One of the reports indicates it's a four-year deal worth around $27MM (the AP says $21MM). It seems that Johjima actually topped the two years and $16MM left on his Mariners contract.
Perhaps the Ms will reallocate some of Johjima's money toward free agents. We analyzed their needs in our Offseason Outlook yesterday.
Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Mariners. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C – Rob Johnson – $400K
C – Adam Moore – $400K
1B – Mike Carp – $400K
2B – Jose Lopez – $2.3MM
SS – Josh Wilson – $400K
3B – Matt Tuiasosopo – $400K
IF – Jack Hannahan – $410K
OF/IF – Bill Hall – $1.25MM
LF – Michael Saunders – $400K
CF – Franklin Gutierrez – $455K+
RF – Ichiro Suzuki – $17MM
OF – Ryan Langerhans – $500K+
DH –
SP – Felix Hernandez – $3.8MM+
SP – Ryan Rowland-Smith – $420K
SP – Jason Vargas – $405K
SP – Brandon Morrow – $425K
SP – Ian Snell – $4.25MM
Other candidates: Doug Fister – $400K
RP – David Aardsma – $419K+
RP – Mark Lowe – $418K+
RP – Sean White – $400K
RP – Shawn Kelley – $400K
RP – Chris Jakubauskas – $400K
RP – Garrett Olson – $420K
RP – Carlos Silva – $11.5MM
Other commitments: Yuniesky Betancourt – $1MM, Jack Wilson – $600K buyout
Non-tender candidates: Ryan Langerhans
It is difficult to project the Mariners' payroll. I have them around $49MM before arbitration raises to Gutierrez, Hernandez, Aardsma, Lowe, Langerhans (Langerhans may be non-tendered). I'll estimate these raises to cost an additional $13MM, putting them in the low $60 millions range. While the Ms entered 2009 with a $98.9MM payroll according to Cot's, it might be a stretch to say they have $35MM+ to spend this winter.
The Mariners apparently saved $8MM in 2010 payroll when Kenji Johjima opted out of his contract. With Moore inexperienced and Johnson having all kinds of offseason surgeries, GM Jack Zduriencik figures to be in the market for a veteran catcher. If he doesn't go the free agent route, Zduriencik has shown a recent willingness to take on portions of bad contracts with Hall and Snell. He could call the Diamondbacks about Chris Snyder, who has $11.25MM remaining on his deal over the next two years.
Will Jack Wilson's defense at shortstop be enough for the Mariners to value him at $7.8MM net? Perhaps not, but the two sides could renegotiate at a lower salary. The shortstop trade market offers mainly J.J. Hardy, while Marco Scutaro and Miguel Tejada top the free agents. It would not be surprising to see Zduriencik pursue Hardy, a player he drafted as head of the Brewers' scouting department. Would Dave Cameron's suggested offer of Morrow interest the Brewers?
If the Ms intend to build upon 2009's 85 wins, they'll need to add multiple hitters. They've got the vacancies – first base, third base, DH, and left field are currently open. Re-signing Russell Branyan and/or Adrian Beltre wouldn't be a terrible idea. While Gonzaga alum Jason Bay might be a speculative match, he doesn't seem like Zduriencik's type. I'd expect Seattle's GM to consider value free agents like Carlos Delgado, Nick Johnson, Troy Glaus, Gary Sheffield, Brian Giles, and Jim Thome. The trade market offers Brad Hawpe, Milton Bradley, and perhaps Lyle Overbay and Josh Willingham, not that the Mariners have been linked to them. Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times heard rumblings the Ms could pursue Orlando Hudson, shifting Lopez to another position or club. Zduriencik could go many different ways with these four spots. His shrewd pickups of Branyan, Gutierrez, and Aardsma last winter suggest he'll succeed.
The Mariners led the AL with a 3.87 ERA last year, so it's tempting to leave the pitching staff alone (obviously the defense deserves credit too). However, the rotation could use an upgrade or two behind Hernandez. Washburn and Bedard's 216 innings of 2.71 ball are gone, and Rowland-Smith's peripherals suggest his 3.74 ERA will be hard to repeat. Fortunately, the free agent market offers a host of intriguing bargain buys.
The Mariners could look very different in 2010 – they have potential needs at catcher, first base, shortstop, third base, left field, DH, and in the rotation. On top of that, they've got big arbitration cases (and possible extension attempts) in Hernandez, Gutierrez, and Aardsma. The Mariners weren't mentioned in our Offseason Storylines post a month ago, but their winter should be very active and interesting.
Jed Hoyer Named Padres GM
Jed Hoyer will be named the new Padres general manager at a press conference today, according to MLB.com's Thomas Harding. Hoyer, 35, was an assistant GM with the Red Sox. Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune had a little bit of background on him in an article yesterday.
Hoyer ought to have $10MM+ to work with this winter despite a payroll in the low $40 millions. If the plan is to contend in 2010, it's not out of the question.
Heyman On Chapman, Mets, Hudson
The latest hot stove notes from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Despite interest from several other clubs, Heyman sees the Aroldis Chapman bidding as ultimately a Yankees-Red Sox battle.
- Heyman says the Mets "don't seem inclined" to pursue free agent starter John Lackey. Heyman believes Lackey will aim for $100MM+, which is higher than most estimates we've seen.
- The Mets have no interest in Milton Bradley, despite a September report. Heyman believes a left fielder will be the team's big-ticket import, with Matt Holliday atop their list.
- Like many, Heyman does not see Orlando Hudson returning to the Dodgers. Hudson earned about $8MM this year and will be a Type A free agent once again.
- Look for a Jed Hoyer announcement today from the Padres.
Discussion: Brendan Donnelly
38-year-old righty Brendan Donnelly feels he's a better pitcher now than before his 2007 Tommy John surgery, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. It may be tough for him to match his initial success with the Angels, but Donnelly's work last year shows he certainly has something left in the tank. He posted strong numbers in 25.3 big league innings with the Marlins after 25.6 Triple A innings in the Astros organization.
Donnelly told Frisaro his July signing with the Marlins "worked out well for both sides," and the team has interest in re-signing him. Donnelly noted that winning "is pretty much everything for me."
For a million or two, Donnelly could be a sleeper free agent signing this winter. He spent time with the Red Sox, Indians, Rangers, Astros, and Marlins organizations since the Angels traded him in December of '06. Which teams make sense for Donnelly this time around?
Carlos Beltran Not On Trading Block
The idea of trading center fielder Carlos Beltran will not be entertained by the Mets, according to a source of WEEI's Alex Speier. Beltran's knee injury limited him to 357 plate appearances this year, but that doesn't serve as motivation for the Mets to subtract an important piece for 2010. Beltran has a full no-trade clause, also.
Beltran, a Scott Boras client, signed a seven-year, $119MM deal in January of 2005. FanGraphs suggests he's already been worth $95.5MM in his five Mets seasons, with $76MM of that value coming in 2006-08.
Odds & Ends: Ricciardi, Sabathia, Chapman
Links for Monday…
- Former Padres GM Kevin Towers told Bill Madden of the New York Daily News recently "it's just a matter of when" the team trades first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.
- The Astros claimed outfielder Jason Bourgeois off waivers from the Brewers, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart via Twitter. Bourgeois, 28 in January, hit .316/.354/.401 in Triple A while playing all three outfield positions. In other Brewers-related news, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says the team retained Mike Burns and Adam Stern on minor league deals.
- Don Mattingly is discussing his future with the Dodgers, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
- I missed this October 5th article from Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun. Elliott talked to former Blue Jays president Paul Godfrey, who was frank in his opinions of ex-GM J.P. Ricciardi.
- Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times says the Angels bid $140MM for C.C. Sabathia last winter, but Olney says "the Angels bid a firm $100MM and discussed increasing their offer to $120MM."
- Andy Pettitte admitted to Kevin Baxter of the L.A. Times, "I think everybody knows I wasn't real happy with the contract. But I wanted to take it and come back here and have a chance to do this." Pettitte ended up earning about $10MM in 2009, but only $5.5MM was guaranteed.
- ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. says on Twitter that Aroldis Chapman "had good conversations" with Yankees GM Brian Cashman and other team execs at yesterday's game. Meanwhile, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian says that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos finds signing Chapman unrealistic for his club. Logically, the Chapman bidding should heat up after the World Series. The 21-year-old lefty is meeting with the Cardinals, Orioles, and Red Sox this week.
- Aaron Gleeman says it's reasonable for fans to call for Twins closer Joe Nathan to be traded, but not because he allowed a postseason home run to Alex Rodriguez.
- NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman says reliever Scott Atchison hopes to return to MLB in 2009. Atchison, 34 in March, elected free agency in November of 2007 after posting a 4.11 ERA in 30.6 relief innings for the Giants.
- Jim Seip of the York Daily Record writes about the beginning of Ken Rosenthal's career.
- John Bonnes attempted to extract info about Joe Mauer's future with the Twins, talking to GM Bill Smith.
Vlad’s Mom A Factor In Free Agency
With the Angels eliminated from the playoffs, it was only fitting for Ben Bolch of the L.A. Times to ask impending free agent Vladimir Guerrero about the future. Vlad's thoughts:
"I'm not thinking so much about the uncertainty, but I'm thinking about my mom and how comfortable she feels in Anaheim. That's always one thing that I'm going to think about regarding free agency. It would be very gratifying to continue to play with the guys I've known here and have gotten used to."
Guerrero also admitted the importance of showing he can play the outfield, since he spent the vast majority of this season at DH. Vlad turns 35 in February, and he's expected to take a pay cut from this year's $15MM salary. He projects as a Type A free agent, though an arbitration offer from the Angels seems unlikely.
Guerrero is one of seven Angels free agents. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register discusses Chone Figgins and the others in this article.