Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Indians. Their commitments for 2010:
C – Kelly Shoppach – $1.95MM+
C – Lou Marson – $400K
1B – Matt LaPorta – $400K
2B – Luis Valbuena – $400K
SS – Asdrubal Cabrera – $417K
3B – Jhonny Peralta – $4.6MM
1B/3B – Andy Marte – $400K
IF – Jason Donald – $400K
LF – Michael Brantley – $400K
CF – Grady Sizemore – $5.6MM
RF – Shin-Soo Choo – $420K
OF – Trevor Crowe – $400K
DH – Travis Hafner – $11.5MM
Other considerations: C – Wyatt Toregas – $400K, IF/OF – Chris Gimenez – $400K
SP – Jake Westbrook – $11MM
SP – Fausto Carmona – $4.9MM
SP – Justin Masterson – $416K
SP – Aaron Laffey – $409K
SP – David Huff – $400K
Other rotation candidates: Jeremy Sowers – $421K, Carlos Carrasco – $400K, Hector Rondon – $400K
RP – Kerry Wood – $10.5MM
RP – Chris Perez – $402K
RP – Rafael Perez – $437K+
RP – Tony Sipp – $400K
RP – Joe Smith – $428K
RP – Jensen Lewis – $419K
RP – Jess Todd/Adam Miller/Failed starter – $400K
Non-tender candidates: Shoppach
The Indians entered 2009 with an $81.6MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. For 2010 they have about $58MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Shoppach and Perez. The Tribe could potentially spend around $20MM on new players without increasing the payroll, thanks to their veteran fire sale this year.
However, if fielding the best possible team in 2010 was the goal, the Indians wouldn't have traded Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. It would be inconsistent to sign free agents in an attempt to win the division next year. The Indians should shop Shoppach, and non-tender him if they find no takers. Moving Peralta's $4.85MM would be helpful. Ditto for Wood's $10.5MM (assuming his 2011 option does not vest). Westbrook and Hafner will hopefully build up value prior to summer 2010 trades.
Trading Sizemore does not make sense. His value is at a low point, and he can be under control through 2012. Even if the Indians concede 2010, Sizemore would be essential to winning the following two years.
Having shed Lee and Martinez, the Indians will no longer be the popular sleeper pick heading into 2010. The trades brought in much-needed young pitching, but next year's rotation does not resemble that of a contender.
Odds & Ends: Pirates, Fielder, Nationals
Links for Monday…
- The Pirates have not approached any players about extensions, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Kovacevic guesses Zach Duke is the likeliest extension candidate. Also in that article, Kovacevic notes "no new exchanges" between the Bucs and Miguel Angel Sano.
- ESPN's Buster Olney speculates that Prince Fielder will be traded to the Red Sox this winter. Thoughts?
- Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times runs through possible free agent targets for the Nationals. He figures they can spend nearly $20MM without increasing payroll.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis weighs in on the returns in the two Mark DeRosa trades this year.
- Hideki Irabu was granted his release from his independent league team in Japan, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.
- MLB.com's Jim Street addresses the future of Felix Hernandez and Adrian Beltre in his latest Mariners mailbag.
Free Agent Market: Third Basemen
Next up in our look at the free agent market, the hot corner.
- For OBP, Chone Figgins is your man (.401). After him it drops to Adam Kennedy (.342). Bounceback possibilities based on '08 OBPs: Jerry Hairston Jr. (.384), Mark DeRosa (.376), and Troy Glaus (.372).
- Juan Uribe (.498 SLG) surprisingly leads free agent third basemen in slugging this year. DeRosa (.439) also has pop. Last year there was Hairston (.487), Glaus (.483), Melvin Mora (.483, club option), DeRosa (.481), Joe Crede (.460), and Adrian Beltre (.457).
- Looking for defensive prowess? UZR/150 points to traditionally well-regarded names: Crede, Figgins, and Beltre. John Dewan of The Fielding Bible ranked Beltre as the game's best defensive third baseman heading into the season. He ranked Pedro Feliz (club option) second and Crede third.
- Beltre and Crede are represented by Scott Boras. Both players showed only flashes of solid offense this year while dealing with injuries. At 31 next year Beltre is on the younger side of the group. He'd make an intriguing value buy for an NL club. Uribe will also be 31 next year. Bobby Crosby turns 30 in January.
- Glaus is a comeback candidate, though he may not be able to play third base regularly given this year's shoulder injury.
- Figgins contributes on both sides of the ball and is clearly the top free agent third baseman. Beltre and Uribe figure to generate attention as well. Figgins and Glaus currently profile as Type A free agents, while Mora, Beltre, DeRosa, and Feliz project as Bs.
- Mora's $8MM club option should be declined by the Orioles, while the Phillies may exercise Feliz's $5MM option.
- Miguel Tejada played third base in the World Baseball Classic this year, and has expressed a willingness to play there to remain with the Astros. He'll be 36 in May, and has a .301/.332/.434 line in 600 plate appearances.
Jose Valverde Age Discrepancy
7:42pm: Valverde told the Houston Chronicle's Jose De Jesus Ortiz Wednesday evening that the age discrepancy was out of his hands. "My (birth year) is 1978," he confirmed. "Go to the Dominican and check it out. It doesn't matter if it's '78 or '79, I'll still be a free agent after this season."
2:42pm: Lisa Gray and I stumbled across an age discrepancy with Astros closer Jose Valverde yesterday. Some sources had his birth date as July 24th, 1979, while others had it as March 24th, 1978. The Astros confirmed to me that the latter date is correct; Valverde will be 32 when the 2010 season begins.
Astros GM Ed Wade told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that the extra year (actually 15 months) "is of no great consequence." Wade told McTaggart there was a paperwork mistake at some point in Valverde's past. Wade also brushed it off when Miguel Tejada's two-year age discrepancy came to light in April of '08. Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes told me that his team was not aware of Valverde's 1978 birth date when he traded the reliever to the Astros in December of '07.
It's true that the age discrepancy doesn't affect the Astros; they're unlikely to pony up the cash to re-sign their closer. They'll still probably offer arbitration and get their draft picks. But since Valverde presumably seeks a three-year deal for more than $30MM, the age difference may affect him.
Free Agent Market: Shortstops
Today let's take a look at the free agent market for shortstops.
- Marco Scutaro is the OBP leader at .377. He's racked up 83 walks in 639 plate appearances. After him we get down to Omar Vizquel and Miguel Tejada in the .330 range. Scott Boras client Alex Cora was at .371 in limited duty last year, but he's down to .320 in '09.
- Good luck finding power – you've got Tejada with a .435 SLG, and then Scutaro at .409.
- Defense is crucial at shortstop. UZR/150 likes Jack Wilson (club option), Alex Gonzalez (club option), Scutaro, and Adam Everett (of course). In his top ten heading into the season, the Fielding Bible's John Dewan ranked Wilson, Everett, Omar Vizquel, and John McDonald in his top ten.
- Felipe Lopez last spent significant time at shortstop in 2007; it'd be a big gamble to use him there consistently.
- If you're looking for youth, Lopez, Bobby Crosby and Khalil Greene will be 30 years old next season.
- Scutaro, Orlando Cabrera, and Lopez project as Type A free agents. Wilson and Tejada project as Bs. Given his contributions on offense and defense, Scutaro is the prize of the free agent shortstop class.
Phillies Release Rodrigo Lopez; A’s Interested
3:41pm: The A's have some interest in Lopez for the season's final few weeks, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
9:57am: The Phillies released pitcher Rodrigo Lopez, according to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). The 34 year-old righty tallied 30 innings, posting a 5.70 ERA and 19 strikeouts against 11 walks. He was solid in his five starts, with a 3.62 ERA. Lopez was bumped from the rotation when the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee.
Prior to his stint in the bigs, Lopez showed sparkling control en route to a 4.31 ERA in 18 Triple A starts. The Scott Boras client had Tommy John surgery in late '07 and had a minor league stint with the Braves in '08 before signing with the Phillies in March of this year.
Orioles Acquire Sean Henn
WEDNESDAY: A press release from the Orioles says the Twins will receive a player to be named later or cash considerations.
TUESDAY: The Orioles acquired reliever Sean Henn from the Twins today, according to Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. The 28 year-old southpaw has yet to experience big league success in brief stints with the Yankees, Padres, and Twins, but he posted strong numbers in Triple A this year.
Heyman On Awards, Lackey, Pettitte
A look at the latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman hands out the hardware, starting with Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols for the MVP awards. I'll let you click to see his take on the other awards.
- Heyman says "there hasn't been any hint of negotiations between the Angels and ace pitcher John Lackey." He believes their initial offer before the season was in the four-year, $60MM range. Hard to see Lackey leaving a possible $20MM+ on the table.
- Andy Pettitte will decide on 2010 once he talks to his family in Houston after the season.
Best Minor League Deals Of 2009
If you're looking for free agent bang for your buck, you can't go wrong with minor league deals. Let's take a look at the best of 2009.
- Garrett Jones – At .302/.368/.613 in 261 plate appearances, Jones is in the mix for NL Rookie of the Year. He didn't show this kind of power playing at Triple A in the Twins' system. Jones has played first base and the outfield corners for the Pirates.
- Ryan Roberts – The Diamondbacks picked up Roberts after the Rangers cut him loose. Playing left field, second base, and third base, he has a .285/.381/.427 line in 287 PAs.
- Kevin Correia – The Giants non-tendered Correia last year; an oblique injury may have contributed to his lousy '08. This year he's been the Padres' best starter with a 4.30 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 169.6 innings.
- Juan Uribe – Uribe's power returned with the Giants in the NL, and he's contributed defensively all around the infield. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has more.
- Adam Kennedy – Kennedy gets an asterisk, as he signed his minor league deal with the Rays and was traded to Oakland on May 8th. He's been solid offensively and a strong defender at second and third base.
- Chad Gaudin – Gaudin signed with the Padres in mid-April after being released by the Cubs (they'd have saved some bucks if they'd non-tendered him earlier). He racked up 105 Ks in 105.3 innings for the Padres, and the Yankees acquired him in August.
- Scott Podsednik – Playing left and center field for the White Sox after being released by Colorado, Pods surprisingly racked up 504 PAs with a .303/.355/.405 line.
- Kiko Calero – When healthy Calero's been dominant for the Marlins – a 2.09 ERA and 62 Ks in 51.6 innings.
- Brian Sanches – A Nationals castoff, Sanches has a 1.45 ERA with 47 Ks in 49.6 innings for the Marlins. Couple of cheap, quality bullpen pickups for the Fish.
- Jonny Gomes – We discussed Gomes here; he's been a pleasant surprise for the Reds.
- Laynce Nix – He's been useful in left field for the Reds, slugging .484 in 307 PAs.
- Ronald Belisario – He didn't do much at Double A for the Pirates, but Belisario has a 2.07 ERA and 54 Ks in 61 innings for the Dodgers.
- Mike MacDougal – 14 saves in 15 tries as the Nationals' closer is impressive, but a 25:32 K/BB ratio shows why the White Sox let him go.
- Honorable mentions: Sean White, Livan Hernandez, Omar Vizquel, Matt Palmer, Andruw Jones, Omir Santos, Jeff Weaver, Tyler Walker, and Josh Fogg. Brad Penny and Vicente Padilla have impressed with their new clubs. Did we miss anyone?
Jonny Gomes’ Future With The Reds
The Reds' signing of outfielder Jonny Gomes has been one of the best minor league deals of the year, up there with Garrett Jones, Ryan Roberts, Kevin Correia, and Juan Uribe. Gomes, 29 in November, has a .279/.349/.558 line with 18 home runs in 261 plate appearances.
Gomes feels he's proven that he's more than a platoon player, and John Fay's article for the Cincinnati Enquirer addresses his future. Given his service time (less than five years), Gomes is arbitration-eligible after the season. The Reds simply have to tender him a contract, and he's theirs for 2010 whether he likes it or not. Fay's article seems to imply that the Reds might non-tender Gomes, which would be odd (but not unprecedented).
And then there's Gomes telling Fay he'd accept arbitration if the Reds offer, which makes even less sense. If the Reds tender him a contract, Gomes' only say in it is regarding his 2010 salary. If the two parties can't find common ground, there would be an arbitration hearing.