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White Sox Miguel Tejada Update

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Alright, I’ve got the goods on the current state of the White Sox’s attempt to acquire Miguel Tejada.

Remember the unknown prospect I referred to in the Orioles’ proposal?  Turns out the pitching prospect the Orioles wanted was either Lance Broadway or Brandon McCarthy.  Neither player was on the list agreed upon earlier, and the Sox scoffed at the idea of including Broadway or McCarthy.

Despite reports in both the Chicago Tribune and Chicago Sun-Times today, the deal is very much alive at this point.  Unfortunately, my source is more involved with the financial approval aspect of the deal (hence the statement that the Sox will take the payroll up to $105MM if necessary).  He’s been cut off from personnel discussions, so this is probably the end of the line as far as the info goes. 

White Sox Receive Tejada Offer

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Remember when I decided to start calling Kenny Williams "spunky" based on his Javier Vazquez and Jim Thome trades?  I’m starting to think I should stick with "bold," as cliche as it may be.

As I mentioned earlier on this site, the White Sox submitted two trade proposals for Miguel Tejada with a deadline of December 31st.  Now the White Sox have re-entered the Tejada fray.

A rock-solid source of mine close to the White Sox tells me that the team is "lying in the weeds" and allowing the Mets, Devil Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox to beat each other up with this whole Manny/Tejada 4-way thing.  The White Sox hope that the 4-way deal falls apart because it’s too complicated and too expensive.  Presently, it seems that their wish will be fulfilled.

The Orioles want the Tejada deal done soon, and approached the White Sox yesterday with a proposal.  The Orioles asked for Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, Ryan Sweeney, and a top pitching prospect.  That unknown prospect may be a sticking point, but it can probably be worked out.  Alex Woodson has been previously mentioned in discussions between the two clubs.  It would be a daring move by Kenny Williams to subtract Uribe and Aaron Rowand after winning a World Series with defense as the team’s strength.

My source tells me to look for an announcement by Friday about Tejada, no matter where he ends up.  The White Sox have their own motivation to wrap things up before the weekend: they’d like to have an announcement that does not conflict with a Bears playoff weekend or the Cubs Convention.

Agreement For Manny Trade?

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The latest Manny rumor making the rounds comes courtesy of commenter Wild Bill from the Orioles Hangout Forum.  As far as Bill’s track record, I can direct you to a thread over at Sons of Sam Horn.  According to the poster:

"There are three reputed "insiders" [at Orioles Hangout] and all three seem to agree that the trade has been agreed upon in principal but that Manny’s request for an extension will likely cause the deal to fall through. As for their validity, it seems each does have a source either within the Orioles organization or one who is once removed from someone inside.

That said, I don’t believe any of them have access to Mike Flanigan or any direct decision maker. The only thing that makes me feel this could be accurate is the fact that all three agree. Generally, they tend to have slightly different takes on the goings on inside the Orioles’ FO."

Here’s the main point of Wild Bill’s post:

"The word is the Tejada-Ramirez/Clement trade has been agreed to in principle by the two teams blocked only at this time with last minute complications caused by Manny."

Using 2005 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) values, the net gain for the Red Sox would be -3.6 wins.  Meaning that in a vacuum, this trade makes the team worse.  Of course, the move would free up significant salary for the Sox (I haven’t heard whether money would change hands) so the team would probably make up the difference in value somewhere else.

Manny Ramirez is on the hook for $58MM over the next three seasons.  Matt Clement will make $19MM over the next two seasons.  Miguel Tejada is owed $48MM over the next four seasons.  For the 2006 season only, this trade would free up $18.5MM for the Red Sox.

I’ll supply more updates on this trade possibility as I hear them. 

Miguel Tejada Trade: Update

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Some more quality details on the possible Miguel Tejada trade:

First issue: White Sox payroll.  My source is saying that adding Tejada would not be a problem – the team’s board of directors are willing to take the payroll up to $105 million.  Should the Orioles accept one of their offers, they’ll still have flexibility for more additions at the July trading deadline as needed.

UPDATE:  There was a miscommunication between my source and I about this deal.  He was not telling me that the Astros were in on Tejada, but rather Jose Contreras.  I’ll go into more detail on this in a separate post.  Sorry for the confusion.

White Sox Make Offers For Tejada

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A source close to a major sports representation firm has tipped me off to two offers the White Sox currently have on the table for shortstop Miguel Tejada.

Two formal proposals have been given to the Orioles by Sox GM Kenny Williams.  Williams set a drop dead date of December 31st given other clubs’ outstanding offers for Tejada.

Option 1: Jose Contreras, Juan Uribe, and one minor league prospect for Tejada.

Option 2: Brandon McCarthy, Juan Uribe, 20 year-old southpaw Alex Woodson, and another minor leaguer for Tejada.  In this scenario, the White Sox would get cash back from the Orioles in the third and fourth years of Tejada’s contract.

According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense into a number of wins above a replacement player, Tejada was worth 3.1 more wins than Uribe in 2005.  Contreras was valued at 5.9 wins for ’05.  However, the White Sox can’t start both McCarthy and Contreras, so it’s really not a loss in pitching value for 2006.  Seems to me that the Sox would much prefer Option 1 if the O’s will consider it.

U.S. Cellular inflates right-handed hitters’ home runs by about 30%.  Tejada would stand to tack on about four home runs due to park effects.  A loss of both Juan Uribe and Aaron Rowand would weaken one of the White Sox’s two major strengths from their Championship season: their defense.  Rowand and Uribe were two of baseball’s best defenders at their positions in ’05, and Brian Anderson and Tejada would definitely be a downgrade.  Still, Williams’s offseason moves and the proposed Tejada trades certainly strengthen the club overall for ’06, at least on paper.

Buzz Around The Game

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Let’s take a look at what some other sources are reporting today on the rumor front.

Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post mentions that Marquis Grissom’s agent said he will sign with the Cubs.  When you look at Grissom’s 2005, there’s not much to like.  He doesn’t get on base and he’s pushing 40.  On the flip side, Grissom mashed lefties to the tune of .315/.356/.577 in 2004 and he’d make a great platoon partner for Jacque Jones. 

UPDATE: You probably assumed this, but I’ve verified with a reliable source that the Grissom deal is for one year and will be incentive-based.  Nothing unexpected, but worth a mention.

The Mets are apparently finalizing a deal for Danys Baez where they’d give up either Jae Seo or Aaron Heilman plus prospects.  In my opinion, this trade is going to weaken the Mets in 2006.  I’ve projected Baez to post an ERA near 4.  Click here to read MetsBlog’s take.

From my inbox today: "You would be crediable if your rumors actually came true."  Why do some people spend so much time writing long, incoherent emails about how they don’t like my site?  Just stop reading it if you don’t like it.

Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio Chicago has reported that the Cubs are in discussions for Barry Zito.  Wouldn’t be bad to see a durable pitcher on the North Side of Chicago to complement Zambrano.

As you’ve certainly read, Miguel Tejada still wants out.  More on details on teams in play later today.

Cubs Tejada Trade On The Table

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An emailer reports that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Orioles on this offer:

Cubs get:

Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard

Orioles get:

Mark Prior, Rich Hill, Corey Patterson

This proposal is on the table.  The report comes from Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000. 

The pros and cons of this deal have been debated endlessly on this site.  To restate my opinion: this move works as a "win now" move.  The Cubs would add something like seven wins, so they’d need some additional upgrades or players outplaying projections to be favored as the division winner.  A couple of options I like:

Platoon Jacque Jones with Matt Murton and acquire a slugging left fielder.  Cliff Floyd would only become available if the Mets acquire Manny Ramirez.  While the Cubs aren’t thrilled with Luis Gonzalez, he’s still a top ten LF and could push them over the top.

Trade for Jeff Kent.  He’s one of the five best second basemen, and I’m firmly in the camp that Ronny Cedeno will not be a Major League success.  Kent’s obviously a force in the Dodgers’ lineup, but the Cubs could come on strong and top the Mets’ weak offer.  The Dodgers may want to get some young players in return before Kent’s contract is up.  Just a thought.

Peter Angelos, Mark Prior, and Medical History

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It’s well known that Baltimore Orioles CEO Peter Angelos is very mindful of players’ health records, moreso than any other GM.  It could have something to do with Angelos’s past as a personal injury lawyer.  Or it could be two massive free agent blunders made in the past by the Orioles: Scott Erickson and Albert Belle.  The Orioles wasted many millions as the two players deteriorated. 

The Angelos mindset is center stage at the moment, as the health of Cubs starter Mark Prior is far from spotless.  As I mentioned earlier, here’s what Buster Olney had to say on the issue:

"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior’s recent medical history."

I dug around a bit and got a little more from a source close to the Orioles.  He told me that he knows of at least three free agents that the Orioles backed away from this winter after reviewing their medical records.  He wouldn’t name names, but I have to think Kevin Millwood was one.

However, the source told me Prior’s medical records would only pose a slight dilemma for the Orioles. He thinks the true obstacle is simply the Cubs meeting the Orioles’ asking price.  If that happens, the deal will get done quickly.

Update: Prior-Tejada Trade

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A couple of emailers have informed me of a radio report by Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000.  Levine was the first to report the Juan Pierre trade earlier this month.

According to the emailers, the Cubs are waiting to hear back from the Orioles (Angelos will be involved) on this offer:

Cubs receive Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard for Mark Prior, Rich Hill, and Corey Patterson.

Essentially, Patterson is a non-factor in discussing 2006 value.  Hill would also not be likely to add much value to a Major League rotation next year.  As I mentioned yesterday, this trade nets the Cubs seven wins if everyone plays at their 2005 level.

While beloved by Cubs fans, Prior’s history of elbow problems coupled with two freak injuries have limited his playing time for the team.  He’s averaged 166 innings over the last three seasons.  Interesting quote in Buster Olney’s blog for ESPN this morning:

"Executives with other teams are assuming, by the way, that Baltimore owner Peter Angelos would likely kill any proposal once club doctors review Prior’s recent medical history." 

Bedard is certainly not a pitcher of Prior’s caliber, whether evaluated based on performance or durability.  He’s averaged 140 innings over the last two seasons. 

Any discussion surrounding Bedard’s potential inevitably references his first half of 2005.  He posted a 2.08 ERA in 60 innings before the break.  Most encouraging about the successful run was Bedard’s walk rate, which was around 2.1 per nine.  He’s walked 4.1 per nine on average in the Major Leagues, and 3.3 per nine in the minors.  According to Baseball Prospectus, lefty Bob Ojeda circa 1984 is the closest match to Bedard (although Bedard has better strikeout numbers).  Ojeda had a nice decade in the 80s, and reached his peak with 18 wins and a 2.57 ERA for the World Champion 1986 Mets.

Baltimore Sun journalist Jeff Zrebiec’s opinion on all of this?

"The Orioles clearly want to keep the shortstop but seem to be at least willing to deal him if the price is right. However as of now, it appears that Tejada will remain an Oriole at least through Christmas."   

Cubs Willing To Trade Prior?

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Ken Rosenthal’s got Chicago buzzing:

"The Cubs, aggressively pursuing a blockbuster trade for Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, are willing to part with a top starting pitcher, most likely right-hander Mark Prior, sources tell FOXSports.com."

According to Rosenthal, the talks stalled when the Cubs insisted on receiving Erik Bedard and Tejada without surrendering Felix Pie or a top pitching prospect.

A longshot three-way deal involving Manny Ramirez, Tejada, and Prior was also mentioned.

As stated here back in November, Bedard is very much available.  Bedard is more than a year older than Prior, and is even more fragile.  I’ve projected Bedard at a 3.74 ERA in 170 innings in 2006.  I originally had Prior at a 3.37 ERA in 202 innings, although the ERA could be more like 3.53 after I make some more adjustments.

Bedard is a lot further away from free agency than Prior, having only two Major League seasons under his belt.  He and Tejada would be a fair return for Prior, even if the Cubs had to include Rich Hill in the deal as the "top pitching prospect."  Using 2005 stats and assuming no contribution from any prospects sent by the Cubs, this is a trade that would net the Cubs seven wins in 2006.  Is the present team a .500 club?  If so, this trade could propel the Cubs to the playoffs.

Still, I can’t help having that ominous feeling that the Cubs could be letting a major talent slip away.  At just 25, Prior’s best seasons are probably yet to come (2003 excepted.) Miguel Tejada will turn 30 in May, and you can’t help but worry about his .276/.322/.416 line in 308 post All-Star break at-bats.  Sure, people will say he was uninspired and maybe mention the Palmeiro distraction, but the seed of doubt remains.

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