Miguel Tejada Trade Update
Next up, Miggy. Tejada got cold feet yesterday, saying that he wanted to stay in Baltimore and didn’t want to move to third base.
Also, the Orioles have rejected the offer of Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. Seems foolish. According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun:
"If the Angels added another prospect to their package of Santana and Aybar, like possibly first base prospect Casey Kotchman, the trade could be completed. It is believed that the Angels’ top two offensive prospects – Double-A shortstop Brandon Wood and second baseman Howie Kendrick – are not available."
Angelos! We are talking about a young, established, effective starter in Santana. Don’t let this one slip away. Jorge Arangure Jr. of the Washington Post adds Nick Adenhart‘s name to the mix as the possible third player coming from L.A. My Angels source had named Adenhart as an untouchable player back on July 13th.
The Astros came in with a fairly weak offer of Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, and Fernando Nieve, as Will Carroll mentioned yesterday. Zrebiec tells us that Baltimore turned this one down but is still talking with Tim Purpura. Zrebiec calls Houston one of the favorites at this point.
The Rangers are in the game with Hank Blalock and prospects available, which would create a logjam at third for the Orioles. The Dodgers are offering Cesar Izturis and prospects, and Rafael Furcal‘s name has come up as well.
Rosenthal: Angels, Astros Make Tejada Offers
Ken Rosenthal’s got the scoop on a sweet offer made to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: starter Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar.
The Orioles, characteristically an indecisive team, need to pounce on this offer. Baltimore will not be ready to compete in the AL East for several years, and prime young pitching isn’t offered up every day. Put Santana under Leo Mazzone’s tutelage and he could blossom into a true ace. And Aybar, while overshadowed by the Halos’ other infield prospects, looks to be an above average regular for many years. Not surprising to see Aybar used as a trading chip, but I didn’t expect the Angels to offer up Santana.
As far as the Astros, Rosenthal just states that "prime Major League pieces" were offered. He also mentions the Tigers and Dodgers as players.
Carroll On Tejada-Astros Discussions
Baseball Prospectus author Will Carroll has opened up Will’s Mill for the weekend, and he’ll be burning up the phone lines fishing for all sorts of good trade rumors.
Today he mentions an offer Tim Purpura has given to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: Adam Everett, Morgan Ensberg, and Fernando Nieve. According to Carroll, Tim Purpura is focused on Tejada and is being urged by Roger Clemens to go get him.
In Everett, the Orioles would be acquiring the game’s best defensive shortstop. His hitting, at .241/.300/.327 this year, lags far behind the average AL shortstop. The average AL shortstop is hitting .286/.342/.423, similar to the work of Eric Chavez or A.J. Pierzysnki this year.
On the 10th of June, Ensberg bruised his shoulder diving for a foul ball. He was hitting .256/.380/.562 at that point, though he hadn’t done much in May or June. In Ensberg’s 18 games after the shoulder bruise, he hit just .158/.422/.263. He drew plenty of walks but the power that resulted in 36 HR last year had vanished. Ensberg took live batting practice yesterday for the first time since being placed on the DL on July 10th.
Nieve, 24, has a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider. He was just sent down to Triple A a week ago because of Brandon Backe, but had been demoted to the bullpen upon Roger Clemens‘s return in late June. It’s just a 15 inning sample, but Nieve did pretty well as a reliever: 8.2 K/9, 2.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. As a starter he had a 5.6 K/9, 4.67 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP. It is a fact that many pitchers add several miles per hour to their fastball by switching to relief, and Nieve’s two plus pitches make it easy to envision him as a future closer or top set-up man.
Astros Talking About Miguel Tejada
MLBTradeRumors has learned that the Astros are in talks with Baltimore for Miguel Tejada. I don’t have much more detail than that, but it comes from a trusted source. Houston has been reluctant to offer up outfielder Hunter Pence, who currently has 22 home runs in Double A. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Astros previously expressed interest back in January.
A couple more tasty Tejada nuggets: The Reds kicked the tires on the superstar shortstop, but a deal couldn’t be completed without including stud pitcher Homer Bailey. In my opinion, if the Reds are really going for the gold this year, they should’ve pulled the trigger. Also, the reason the Angels are resisting a Tejada deal: Mike Scioscia. Scioscia doesn’t want Tejada bringing his…influence…into the clubhouse.
Rumor Roundup
Another day, another rumor roundup. Let’s throw everything fresh into the mill.
The Orioles are thinking about taking on one of Philly’s huge outfielder contracts, for some reason. I guess this could help next year’s push for third place. Baltimore is one of baseball’s most baffling teams to me. Abreu rumors have been floating around the Orioles since at least November.
The Cubs and Yankees may have something cooking, with Scott Williamson the likely candidate to be dealt. If the reliever market is really so inflated, why don’t the Cubs trade Howry and Eyre?
The Pirates are offering up all sorts of non-difference makers, but Mike Gonzalez could actually get them something decent. The 28 year-old southpaw has a 2.27 ERA in 39 innings this season. Fantay leaguers should start thinking about Matt Capps as his successor.
Trade rumor All-Star Ken Rosenthal is getting into the game more lately, with a full plate of whisperings posted an hour ago. Jose Vidro could become a Giant, and the D’Backs would love to trade Shawn Green (of course).
Unfounded rumors: Billy Beane may be shopping Mark Ellis and Jason Windsor, with possible interest in Brian Roberts…the Angels could be after David Dellucci…teams are calling the Mets about Alay Soler…Dallas McPherson is definitely on the block…there’s a decent chance Jon Lieber ends up a Yankee…the Mets and Nats are still talking about Livan Hernandez.
Lining Up For Shealy
It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight. These are all from various newspapers.
The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez. Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he’s at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP. He’s had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston. Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control. Actually, those first two facts aren’t so random – Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye. Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.
Then there’s the Orioles. Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies’ request for Hayden Penn. It’s said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they’ve been trying to do that for ages. The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35. That’s not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played. He’d make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O’s will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy. Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles’ farm system.
It’s been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix. The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy. Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.
The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have). Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma. Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit. He hasn’t shown much in the Majors this season. The persistent walk problem remains. Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.
One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there’s no longer a fit. Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A. Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May. So I’m thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.
Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters’ environment). He’s at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.
El Duque Swapped For Julio
In a surprising move, the Diamondbacks sent starter Orlando Hernandez to the Mets for reliever Jorge Julio. El Duque, age 36-40ish, has a 6.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through his first nine starts this year. 27 year-old righty Julio had a 5.06 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the Mets.
Hernandez will be paid $4.5MM this season and doesn’t figure to pick up his incentives for Comeback Player of the Year or an All-Star Game. Julio makes about $2.5MM and has yet to reach free agency. Hernandez was projected to add about 1.8 wins in 122 innings while Julio’s projection called for 1.5 wins in 58 innings (3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Perhaps D’Backs pitching coach Bryan Price thinks he can limit Julio’s largest flaw, his tendency to allow home runs. He’d better figure something out because Chase Field boosts homers for lefties by 18% (Shea suppressed them by 6%). The only silver lining in Julio’s 2006 performance is that he’s managed to whiff 33 hitters in just over 21 innings. The 13.92 K/9 is the best in the game among pitchers with 20 innings.
El Duque had three quality starts in nine tries for Arizona. Last year for the White Sox, 45% of his starts were quality efforts. While he’s an improvement over Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez, the difference may be marginal. PECOTA projected Gonzalez at a 5.71 ERA, Lima at 5.21, and Hernandez at 5.17. Who knows, though, maybe El Duque will rise to the occasion on the big stage and give the Mets 100 innings of league average ball. And of course he could be an asset should the Mets make the playoffs.
I can see the reasoning here for both sides. The Mets fill their starter vacancy at a low cost and value Hernandez higher than most teams. El Duque loves New York and Minaya loves El Duque. Minaya scouted Hernandez and considers him a warrior. On the other hand, the D’Backs get a reliever who still at least has potential to be dominant. Julio is under contract for a couple more years and adds depth to an already decent Arizona pen. Perhaps Josh Byrnes thought Hernandez’s value would only continue to decrease as the season wore on.
It will be interesting to see if the Mets continue their pursuit of Orlando’s half-brother, Livan Hernandez.
Mora Interested In Phillies
The match makes so much sense that it was only a matter of time before the rumors started up. As I mentioned a week ago, Melvin Mora‘s the best available third baseman and the Phillies desperately need one of those.
Now that contract extension talks have broken off between Mora’s agent and the Orioles, the New Jersey Courier-Post reports:
"Mora is believed to be interested in playing with fellow Venezuelan Bobby Abreu. If Mora hopes to be traded this season to Philadelphia, two things might stand in his way. The Phillies currently have three players that can play third base and Abreu would certainly be involved in the trade."
I still don’t know why Mora just didn’t take the money. But as to the quote above, I think two things stand in Mora’s way, and they’re neither of the two listed.
First, the idea that the Phillies have three players that can play third base is technically true, but far from a roadblock. We are talking about David Bell (worst regular in baseball last year), Alex Gonzalez (the 33 year-old with his fifth team in three years), and Abraham Nunez (has topped a .700 OPS once in his career). Not exactly Wright, A-Rod, and Miggy here.
Second, the idea that the Phils could only acquire Mora if they sent Abreu the other way. Huh? Wouldn’t the Orioles prefer someone young and affordable? One of Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd would seem sufficient for an impending free agent.
The first real issue here is money. According to my Phillies source, the team is stretched at their $92MM payroll and even Mora’s $4MM for ’06 would be pushing it. They just added a mil for David Dellucci too. Maybe spending five mil spread among Ryan Franklin, Gonzalez, and Nunez wasn’t such a bright idea?
The other problem with a Mora-to-Philly deal is that third base, no matter how bleak, may not be the team’s most pressing need. Pat Gillick may want to focus on finding a decent backup for Tom Gordon, as the team really doesn’t have one. If Flash and his questionable elbow go down for any length of time, who will the Phillies turn to? Madson? Need him starting. Rhodes? Bombed in the role.
I suppose if you want to get really crazy, you could cook up a scenario in which the Phils send Abreu and cash to Baltimore (thus freeing up payroll) and receive Mora and a decent reliever in return. I’d say LaTroy Hawkins, but something tells me he wouldn’t thrive in Philly if forced to close games. And would Mora still embrace a trade if he didn’t get to play alongside Abreu?
Who Could Use Melvin Mora?
Melvin Mora is still a pretty good third baseman, tied for tenth best in baseball in 2005 according to WARP. He enters his age 34 season with free agency looming. Mora set a deadline for today for the Orioles to work out a contract extension with him, but Orioles VP Jim Duquette is pretty much ignoring that. Reports say Mora wants $10MM annually, but there is no indication on a number of years.
Mora will make just $4MM in 2006, and he should be worth about twice that. He can only hope he ages like Jeff Kent, one of his top comparables according to Baseball Prospectus. Kent, so far, has been quite productive during his age 34-37 seasons, hitting .298/.362/.531 over 576 games. That included 115 HRs.
I wouldn’t say the Orioles and Mora’s agent are at an impasse yet, but one can at least envision a scenario in which Mora is placed on the trading block between now and July 31st. If the Orioles don’t want to hang on to him, they’d be wise to try to get some value before he leaves.
Here’s a rundown of teams that have questions at third base and could be looking reinforcements at some point. While it’s true that Mora is capable of playing outfield, we’ll stick to the hot corner.
Red Sox: They have the depth to cover a complete Mike Lowell collapse. But if the team wants to upgrade from Youkilis/Choi at the corners, Mora would add dependability. Of course, we all know that deals between division rivals are rare.
Twins: Michael Cuddyer still might be ready for Opening Day despite a strained oblique. He’s the fallback option for Tony Batista, assuming Jason Kubel and/or Lew Ford can handle right field. Batista isn’t off to a great start this year and he’s anything but a lock. Mora’s affordable salary would be attractive to Terry Ryan, though he’d have to part with some young pitching to him.
Braves: Moving Chipper Jones to first and acquiring Mora for third base would be a huge net gain for the Braves’ offense and defense. It would also help keep Chipper healthy. I don’t see it happening, but it’s worth noting.
Phillies: The Phils could really, really use a solid third baseman right now. The hot corner is easily the offense’s weak spot. There have been whispers that David Bell is mulling over retirement, according to Will Carroll.
Walker For Matos Swap In The Works
As has been rumored for a couple of days now, the Cubs and Orioles are close to swapping Todd Walker and Luis Matos. According to the Baltimore Sun, the salary difference is the only holdup.
While the Orioles’ purpose for acquiring Walker is reportedly for use as a DH or bat off the bench, a source of mine says that is not the whole story. According to the source, Brian Roberts is not where everyone thinks he is health-wise. He’s been mentioned as perhaps being ready for Opening Day, but that is highly unlikely. His type of elbow surgery is "largely unknown" according to Will Carroll.
Matos hasn’t been used in right field since 2003. He’s a right-handed hitter who has batted .236/.302/.353 vs. left-handers over the last three seasons. In other words, not the ideal platoon partner for Jacque Jones. I’m guessing the Cubs would carry he and Marquis Grissom as backup outfielders and attempt to find at-bats for Matos in left field.
The Cubs and Orioles have an amicable relationship, having worked out deals for Corey Patterson and Sammy Sosa in the recent past. In addition, the teams have talked extensively about Miguel Tejada.
A .290 Spring Training batting average has the Orioles thinking Patterson will make a capable regular for them in center field. While it’s worth a shot, Patterson should again have a hard time topping a .310 OBP.