Cubs Willing To Trade Prior?
Ken Rosenthal‘s got Chicago buzzing:
"The Cubs, aggressively pursuing a blockbuster trade for Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, are willing to part with a top starting pitcher, most likely right-hander Mark Prior, sources tell FOXSports.com."
According to Rosenthal, the talks stalled when the Cubs insisted on receiving Erik Bedard and Tejada without surrendering Felix Pie or a top pitching prospect.
A longshot three-way deal involving Manny Ramirez, Tejada, and Prior was also mentioned.
As stated here back in November, Bedard is very much available. Bedard is more than a year older than Prior, and is even more fragile. I’ve projected Bedard at a 3.74 ERA in 170 innings in 2006. I originally had Prior at a 3.37 ERA in 202 innings, although the ERA could be more like 3.53 after I make some more adjustments.
Bedard is a lot further away from free agency than Prior, having only two Major League seasons under his belt. He and Tejada would be a fair return for Prior, even if the Cubs had to include Rich Hill in the deal as the "top pitching prospect." Using 2005 stats and assuming no contribution from any prospects sent by the Cubs, this is a trade that would net the Cubs seven wins in 2006. Is the present team a .500 club? If so, this trade could propel the Cubs to the playoffs.
Still, I can’t help having that ominous feeling that the Cubs could be letting a major talent slip away. At just 25, Prior’s best seasons are probably yet to come (2003 excepted.) Miguel Tejada will turn 30 in May, and you can’t help but worry about his .276/.322/.416 line in 308 post All-Star break at-bats. Sure, people will say he was uninspired and maybe mention the Palmeiro distraction, but the seed of doubt remains.
Adam Eaton On The Block
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to Adam Eaton last week, and his article definitely gives the vibe that the righthander won’t be staying in San Diego past 2006.
Eaton’s opinion of the Padres’ three-year, $17MM offer?
"It was almost like a slap in the face compared to what I’m capable of doing."
That’s an amusing statement. Here’s my translation:
"I’ve pitched almost 800 Major League innings and have posted a medicore 4.35 ERA for my career. I’ve never pitched more than 200 innings or had an ERA below 4 in a season, in a pitcher’s ballpark to boot. But since I’m under 30 and don’t completely suck, I’m worth at least $10MM per season. I’m insulted that you’ve only offered me $5MM per season."
Given that impressive resume, it’s no surprise teams are beating down the door to acquire Eaton. No, really, they are. These are the interested parties, according to Crasnick:
Rangers
Nationals
Tigers
Orioles
Red Sox
Cubs
Thoughts on a few of these suitors:
The Rangers have been shaky about including both Gerald Laird and Adrian Gonzalez to get a deal done, and they reportedly backed out of such a deal earlier this month. Eaton has been below average in home run prevention throughout his career, so I’m not sure he’s the best fit for Ameriquest. But Texas can’t count on Vicente Padilla to fill the void left by Kenny Rogers, so it’s likely they’ll bring another starter in this winter.
If Eaton could remain healthy, he’d give Washington solid starting pitching depth. 1-5, it’d go John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Eaton, Brian Lawrence, and Ryan Drese. Top prospect Mike Hinckley will need some time before he’s ready to step in. A swap of Ryan Church for Eaton sounds like fair value to me, and Church would be a nice fit in left field for the Pads.
I’m not sure that the Cubs have what Padres GM Kevin Towers would want for Eaton. Plus, the point of Hendry adding another starter was seemingly to add a durable pitcher to the mix in the event that Kerry Wood can’t make 30 starts. Eaton is anything but durable.
Miguel Tejada Wants Out
I had received a few tips from readers about Miguel Tejada possibly being traded. I didn’t print anything because I couldn’t substantiate them. Turns out those readers were on target; today Tejada said, "I think the best thing will be a change of scenery." You can bet Tejada’s proclamation will get the hot stove buzzing once again.
It’s a strange thing for Tejada to say, given that the Orioles have several months left to improve their team. He said that the Orioles "have not made any signings to strengthen the club." If I were Ramon Hernandez, I’d be slightly offended by that remark. And to think the two were teammates for so many years.
Anyway, let’s begin with Tejada’s contract. He’ll make $10MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09. That’s $48MM over four years. He’d certainly snag more than that on the open market. Tejada isn’t even 30 yet, and you know all about his offensive accolades and durability. One mild sign of a possible decline is that Tejada slugged only .416 after the All-Star break in ’05, hitting seven home runs. Still, that’s only 300 ABs and he may have felt uninspired.
Here’s what we’re all wondering: where might Tejada end up?
Boston Red Sox. Of course, they have a huge need for a shortstop and plenty of cash. There’s even an article circulating saying that Tejada might want to play for the Red Sox. The Sox could offer up Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia for starters. The one little problem is that the Orioles still consider themselves competitive, and would probably be reluctant to trade within the division. Back when the Red Sox dealt Curt Schilling and Brady Anderson to the Orioles for Mike Boddicker, the O’s were completely out of the race.
Chicago Cubs. I’m thinking that if Jim Hendry removes Felix Pie from the "untouchables" list, the Orioles would seriously consider shipping Tejada their way. If the Cubs included Ronny Cedeno to take Tejada’s vacant spot, a deal could get done quickly. (This is all speculation, of course).
New York Mets. The Mets seem willing to give Jose Reyes all the time he needs to develop into a leadoff threat at shortstop. But Omar’s been mortgaging the future this winter like it’s going out of style, so you think he’d at least inquire. The Orioles’ response would probably include the words "Lastings" and "Milledge."
Toronto Blue Jays. If the Orioles do decide to deal within the AL East, the Blue Jays could get involved. Russ Adams is OK, but Ricciardi might have interest anyway.
Houston Astros. If ownership doesn’t mind the commitment, the ‘Stros might try to allocate some of that now-available Clemens cash for a marquee shortstop. Not sure if they’ve got the prospects to cut it, though.
What do you think? Any teams I’ve left out? What players would it take to get a deal done?
Thanks to Tom and Dennis
Kris Benson For Jorge Julio Possible
At least three sources are reporting that the Mets have officially dealt Kris Benson for Jorge Julio. On the other hand, MetsBlog says the above sources jumped the gun. In case the deal or something like it occurs, here’s a rundown of the pitchers.
A recap of my synopsis of Benson from a week ago:
He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.
Nonetheless, Benson makes a passable #3 starter. As a flyball pitcher moving from one of the toughest parks in which to homer to a neutral one, Benson figures to see his ERA hit 4.50 or higher in 2006. The Mets are free of $15MM due to Benson for 2006-07.
They will have to cover roughly $3MM coming to Jorge Julio. The right-hander hasn’t been particularly good since 2002, the year he somehow managed to keep the ball in the park. Since then, his home run rate has been poor and he’s allowed tons of baserunners.
Fallout from the deal:
Some speculate Julio makes Aaron Heilman expendable, but it doesn’t seem likely the Mets would think that way.
The Orioles might pull back in their pursuit of Paul Byrd, or perhaps he’s reached a deal elsewhere. A Benson addition might indicate an Erik Bedard deal on the horizon, although co-VP Mike Flanagan has said he’s not shopping Bedard.
While it’s being called a salary dump, the Mets only clear $5MM in the deal for ’06. It’s not as if that $5MM was holding Minaya back from a big deal he wanted to make. The key to the deal is more that it opens up a rotation spot for a Javier Vazquez-type trade. While the Mets are quickly being heralded as National League favorites, their starting rotation is not particularly fearsome at present.
Thanks to Steve and Brian
Orioles Hot Stove Hearsay
All sorts of interesting hot stove boiling in the Baltimore area. Here’s the latest.
Published reports have said that the Orioles have made a two-year offer to 35 year-old starter Paul Byrd. My sources are saying that Byrd is very likely to sign with Baltimore, although it may take three guaranteed years.
Nomar Garciaparra at first base? The Orioles are not likely to sign Paul Konerko according to sources, and Nomar is expected to sign a one year deal with an option with the Orioles. Garciaparra would spell Melvin Mora at third and spend time at first and DH as well.
Erik Bedard is very much available and will probably be dealt this offseason. The team questions his tenacity after a knee injury limited him to 24 starts in 2005. If not packaged in a deal for Bobby Abreu, Bedard may be part of an Adam Dunn trade. The Orioles also have interest in Wily Mo Pena from the Reds if they decide to make a trade of less magnitude.
The Orioles could also make some room at first base for 23 year-old Adrian Gonzalez. The #1 draft pick in 2000, Gonzalez has yet to get the opportunity to translate his minor league success in the Majors. He has just 192 Major League at-bats under his belt and nowhere to play in Texas. The O’s would be happy to send soft-tossing Rodrigo Lopez over to the Rangers for him. However, Lopez projects terribly in Ameriquest and wouldn’t be enough to get a deal done.
Bobby Abreu For Erik Bedard And Jay Gibbons
So the John Mabry rumor didn’t carry enough heft for you? Looking for something juicer? How about this from a source in the Philadelphia area:
The Phillies are apparently talking to the Orioles about sending them Bobby Abreu for Erik Bedard and Jay Gibbons.
Abreu was the third-best hitting right fielder in the game in 2005, and the second-best in ’04. He’ll make $13MM in 2006 and is strangely unpopular in Philadelphia. Abreu is also on the hook for $15MM in 2007 with a $16MM club option for 2008. The ’08 option has a $2MM buyout attached. Abreu will be 32 when the ’06 season begins and may be ticketed for the Hall of Fame.
Lefty Erik Bedard has been plagued by injuries, undergoing Tommy John surgery and a sprained knee ligament. He’s still only 26 and is many years away from free agency. Bedard improved upon his control somewhat in 2005, and had a nice showing in 24 starts. He flashed his ace potential before the All-Star break, going 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA. Interestingly, Bedard has Bob Gibson (circa 1962) buried among his otherwise pedestrian comparables.
Jay Gibbons is a young, powerful right fielder who would be an adequate replacement for Abreu. He’ll be 29 when the ’06 season starts and made a little less than $3MM last year. Gibbons slugged .516 in 2005, second only to Vladimir Guerrero among regular right fielders. While comparable to Abreu in power, Gibbons has far less plate discipline and a worse health record.
Thanks to Jonathan O.