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Quick Hits: Yankees, Hamels, Arb Cases

By Mark Polishuk | February 14, 2015 at 5:10pm CDT

The Yankees finalized last summer’s trades for Martin Prado, Josh Outman and Jeff Francis with cash rather than minor leaguers, a team official tells Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees blog.  All three deals (with the Diamondbacks, Indians and Athletics, respectively) were made with either cash or a player to be named later going back to the other team in return.  Here’s some more from around the baseball world…

  • In an entry from Buster Olney’s latest Insider-only piece for ESPN.com, he notes that talent is a rarer commodity than money in today’s game, which is why he feels the Phillies should consider eating some of Cole Hamels’ contract to bring back better prospects in a deal.  Looking at the Hamels-to-Boston trade rumors, Olney wonders why the Red Sox would deal top prospects for Hamels now when a number of ace-level pitchers will be available for only cash in free agency next offseason.
  • This offseason has already seen eight arbitration hearings and seven more outstanding cases could go to a hearing, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi notes.  It’s an unusually high number given that there were only 13 arb hearings in total over the previous four offseasons, though Morosi doesn’t yet think this could be an omen about the upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations.
  • Former big leaguer-turned-FOX Sports analyst C.J. Nitkowski is no stranger to minor league contracts, and he details some of the many factors that a player must consider before signing such a deal.
  • Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron lists his ten least-favorite moves of the offseason, with the Padres’ trade for Matt Kemp topping the list.  Cameron believes the Padres paid far too heavy a price in both talent and salary to acquire Kemp, whose best days are possibly behind him due to a checkered injury history.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels Jeff Francis Josh Outman Martin Prado

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AL East Notes: Hardy, Blue Jays, Edwards, BoSox

By Mark Polishuk | February 14, 2015 at 12:27pm CDT

J.J. Hardy made an early exit from the free agent market when he re-signed with the Orioles before the ALCS, but the shortstop would’ve preferred to have inked his new contract even sooner.  “It kind of went a lot longer than I wanted it to,” Hardy told Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. “I didn’t think it needed to go that long, but it did. But I told my agent, ’Listen, this is what I want and I like it in Baltimore. Let’s get to what is fair and make this happen.’ Now that it is done, I’m glad everything worked out as it did.”  Hardy also said he was hampered by a bad back last season, and hopes to deliver more of his customary power now that he’s feeling healthier.  Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • Canadian-born Russell Martin, Dalton Pompey and Michael Saunders are slated to play major roles for the Blue Jays, though team president Paul Beeston and Alex Anthopoulos tell Robert MacLeod of the Globe & Mail that this increase in Canadian talent is a coincidence in roster-building, not a promotional gimmick. “The city and the fans and the country embrace great players because great players help you win. And I think winning is what promotes the sport and baseball in Canada,” Anthopoulos said.
  • Rays minor leaguer Spencer Edwards has been issued an 80-game suspension for a PED violation, the league announced.  Edwards was Tampa’s second-round pick in the 2012 draft, selected 88th overall.  The 21-year-old shortstop/center fielder has a .558 OPS in 569 PA over his first three pro seasons, none above the A-ball level.
  • Rough seasons for Xander Bogaerts, Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley were a big reason why the Red Sox suffered through a last-place finish in 2014.  Alex Speier of the Boston Globe examines both why these players struggled and takes a broad overview of how the Sox are adapting their player development system as part of an in-depth four-part series of articles.
  • The main takeaway from Speier’s piece is that the Red Sox felt empowered by their 2013 World Series title to deploy so many youngsters in last year’s starting lineup, and realistically, the team didn’t even expect all three to contribute right away.  The larger roster flaw, according to Speier, may have been that Boston didn’t acquire enough veteran depth last winter to account for some growing pains by their three young starters.  In response, the Red Sox began adding notable veterans even before last season ended, and now theoretically have protection should Bogaerts, Bradley or other unproven talents like Mookie Betts or Rusney Castillo underperform.
  • Speier’s piece also explores some bigger-picture topics, such as how the Red Sox are dealing with the age-old problem of how to best prepare each individual prospect to be ready for the majors.  This is complicated by the fact that the quality gap between Triple-A and MLB has never been wider, yet top prospects are coming into the game with higher expectations than ever thanks to media hype and fan interest.
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Latest On Cuban Market

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2015 at 7:56pm CDT

With the crop of six-year service time free agents thinning noticeably, attention has turned to the fascinating group of players readying to sign after leaving their native Cuba. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has been among the most active observers on this still-developing segment of the market, and delivers a host of interesting information in his latest post on the subject.

While I recommend a full read of his work, here are some highlights:

  • Hector Olivera is the lone name who figures to have immediate impact. (Fellow middle infielder Jose Fernandez reportedly remains in Cuba after having been thought to have left with intentions of seeking a MLB deal.) McDaniel agrees with Baseball America’s Ben Badler that Olivera has the potential for immediate impact, but says there are significant doubts about his long-term prospects. For one, Olivera’s medical history is not just limited to sports injuries, but includes a significant case of thrombosis. Then, there is the fact that Olivera’s age cannot be confirmed with certainty and even some indications that scouts are questioning why he is “fatigued earlier in workouts than an athlete of his size, strength and age should.”
  • Ultimately, McDaniel concurs with Badler that Olivera is seeking and could obtain a $10MM+ annual guarantee. But McDaniel cautions that he expects it to run over just two or three seasons (with an outside chance at a fourth guaranteed year) with options and incentives included.
  • The other name making noise at the recent international showcase was Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez, who McDaniel has in the mid-to-upper 90s with a plus slider and promising change. The rest of the package checks out for his age, with McDaniel saying that Alvarez’s raw talent and progress to date is on the same level as the very best high school arms entering the draft. Alvarez expects to have him ready to sign in the next month or two and does not seem inclined to wait for the market to turn over on July 2nd, which would mean the Cubs and Rangers would not be eligible to sign him. (Should he wait to sign, Alvarez would lose the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, D’backs, and Angels as potential suitors.) While this particular market is in the very earliest stages of development, McDaniel says that Alvarez is plainly superior to Yoan Lopez, who just got a $8.25MM bonus from Arizona.
  • McDaniel also provides an update on 21-year-old infielder Andy Ibanez, who is seemingly no longer showcasing. That could mean that he is in the process of (or will soon be) sorting through offers. While the demand side of the equation is hard to peg in his case, McDaniel says he expects one of the bonus-busting teams listed above to land him at a potential cost of between $5MM to $12MM.
  • The most exciting name out there remains Yoan Moncada. Though there is not much new to pass on in his case, Badler does present some video of Moncada’s past plate appearances against several notable young arms. One executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links) that the bidding on Moncada could reach nine figures in terms of total investment (given the near-100% tax for signing him). Rosenthal also says that the Moncada case may be a catalyst for debate on the issue of how amateur rights are secured.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Hector Olivera Yadier Alvarez Yoan Lopez

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Minor Moves: Herndon, Bell, Germen, Guillon, Rapada

By Steve Adams | February 13, 2015 at 4:40pm CDT

Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…

  • Righty David Herndon has signed a minor league deal with the Brewers, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets. The 29-year-old, who is trying to reach the bigs for the first time since 2012, has been significantly limited by injuries over the last several seasons. Over 117 total MLB frames from 2010-12, Herndon owns a 3.85 ERA with 5.8 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.
  • Third baseman Josh Bell has signed a minor league deal with the Padres, agent Josh Kusnick announced on Twitter. Formerly a top prospect with the Dodgers and one of the top 40 prospects in baseball (per Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus), Bell spent much of last season in Korea, hitting .267/.345/.433 with the LG Twins. Those numbers are a near-mirror image of his career line at Triple-A, where he’s batted .267/.355/.451 in 1402 plate appearances.
  • Right-hander Gonzalez Germen has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Iowa by the Cubs, tweets the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales. Germen, who has been designated for assignment a stunning four times this winter, will finally know which organization he will be a part of come Spring Training. He’ll be invited to Major League camp, per Gonzales.

Earlier Moves

  • Reds left-hander Ismael Guillon has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, reports MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (on Twitter). Guillon was designated for assignment when the team signed Burke Badenhop over the weekend. Guillon, who turns 23 years old today, has been a mainstay on Cincinnati’s Top 30 prospects list (per Baseball America), topping out at No. 9, but he’s struggled to a 4.82 ERA over the past two seasons at multiple Class-A levels. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel recently ranked him 21st among Reds farmhands, noting that one scout called him a “pull your hair out” type of guy due to his wild inconsistencies.
  • The Giants have signed lefty specialist Clay Rapada to a minor league contract, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy (via Twitter). Yankees blogger Robert Casey first reported the news recently on Twitter. Rapada, 34 in March, has just two Major League innings over the past two seasons but has an excellent track record of dominating left-handed hitters. He’s held opposing lefties to a .164/.255/.231 batting line in 257 big league plate appearances, but righties have tattooed him at a .345/.464/.611 clip. Rapada held lefties to a .639 OPS in Triple-A last season, but righties got to him for a 1.134 OPS.
  • Third baseman Nick Delmonico, who was released by the Brewers last week, has latched on with the White Sox on a minor league deal, tweets Eddy. If Delmonico’s name looks familiar, it’s because he was the player the Brewers received from the Orioles in exchange for Francisco Rodriguez in 2013. Formerly one of Baltimore’s top prospects, Delmonico was suspended last summer for amphetamine usage. The 22-year-old has yet to climb higher than Class-A Advanced, where he is a .241/.332/.417 hitter in 500 plate appearances.
  • Eddy also tweets that the Red Sox have signed right-hander Jess Todd — not to be confused with MLBTR scribe Jeff Todd — to a minor league contract. Todd, originally drafted by the Cardinals, was traded to the Indians alongside Chris Perez in return for Mark DeRosa back in 2009. Now 28 years of age, Todd has little MLB experience (28 1/3 innings) but does boast a strong track record at Triple-A, where he’s worked to a 3.62 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 380 1/3 innings.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Transactions Clay Rapada David Herndon Gonzalez Germen Jess Todd

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AL East Notes: Eovaldi, Cecchini, Albers, Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | February 13, 2015 at 2:21pm CDT

The Yankees’ primary focus with trade acquisition Nathan Eovaldi will be on improving his offspeed offerings, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post. Despite Eovaldi’s imposing velocity, the 25-year-old generates a surprisingly low number of strikeouts. And, while he struggles more against left-handed hitters, his lack of whiffs isn’t as a result of any platoon issue (6.5 K/9 vs. RHB in his career; 6.0 K/9 vs. LHB). He’s already begun working with pitching coach Larry Rothschild on improving those pitches and would do well to improve his change-up to give him a true out pitch versus lefties. As it is, lefty hitters have batted .466 with a .655 slugging percentage against Eovaldi’s change in his career. The Yankees, Martin writes, were drawn to Eovaldi because of his velocity (95.9 mph fastball from 2013-14), age and the durability he showed in 2014, throwing 199 2/3 innings.

A few more notes from around the AL East…

  • Red Sox third base prospect Garin Cecchini isn’t worried about the team’s addition of Pablo Sandoval, he tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “I take it as a positive for my career,” Cecchini explains. “I get to hang out with a great player like that and work with him in spring training. That has to help me. It’s easy to say, ‘Where is my spot?’ but I can’t worry about that. You have to create your own opportunity.”  Of course, creating that opportunity won’t be easy, barring an injury to Sandoval. And even in that instance, left fielder Hanley Ramirez could slide over to third base, as the Sox have tremendous outfield depth. Cecchini acknowledged to Abraham that a position change or trade could be the eventual outcome. “You hear that kind of stuff. But I don’t look too much into it. … I understand Pablo is in front of me but I hope I can do something to help.”
  • The Blue Jays had two scouts watch Matt Albers’ recent workout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Albers turned down multiple offers to sign with the White Sox, according to Nicholson-Smith, though it’s not clear if Toronto was one of the teams to make an offer. Shortly after Albers signed, the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich tweeted that Albers had offers from four teams besides the ChiSox.
  • Nicholson-Smith also spoke with someone familiar with the arbitration process who estimated that the Blue Jays’ win over Josh Donaldson in yesterday’s arbitration hearing may have saved the club upwards of $6MM over the next several winters, as each salary is based upon the previous year’s figure (Twitter link).
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Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Garin Cecchini Josh Donaldson Matt Albers Nathan Eovaldi

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Phillies Notes: Papelbon, Brewers, Hamels, Red Sox

By Jeff Todd | February 12, 2015 at 9:46am CDT

Here’s the latest out of Philadelphia, which houses one of the league’s most interesting rosters to watch this spring. Steve Adams and I discuss that, among other topics, on today’s forthcoming podcast. In the meantime, some notes:

  • The Phillies asked the Brewers for a “top prospect” in return for closer Jonathan Papelbon if the club was to pick up a big piece of the remainder of his deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (in a piece we cited earlier this morning). In response, Milwaukee broached the idea of sending Jonathan Broxton back to Philadelphia to help balance the cash, a concept that did not gain traction (and which Rosenthal argues made little sense for either club).
  • Those talks are now dormant, per Rosenthal. That would appear to take the Brewers out of the picture for Papelbon at this point. As Rosenthal explains, the entire episode also demonstrates the broader difficulty the club is facing in moving Papelbon. While a spring injury could always shake up the market, it increasingly appears (as others have suggested) that waiting until the summer to deal might represent the best option for the Phils.
  • The Red Sox have plenty of leverage in their pursuit of Phillies lefty Cole Hamels, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. That’s because “even the second-best deal [Amaro] can get for Hamels from the Red Sox is likely better than he can get elsewhere,” as Abraham puts it. Even taking on most of the Hamels deal is going to leave plenty of value left to be accounted for in any trade scenario — another topic that Steve and I discuss — but Abraham suggests that the gap might be bridged by a package fronted by lefty Henry Owens and including several other top prospects not named Betts, Swihart, or Rodriguez.
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Boston Red Sox Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels Henry Owens Jonathan Broxton Jonathan Papelbon

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Pitching Notes: Porcello, Aardsma, Albers, Zito

By Jeff Todd | February 11, 2015 at 4:26pm CDT

Red Sox starter Rick Porcello figures to present a fascinating free agent case, as Mike Petriello of Fangraphs writes. The righty will enter free agency in advance of his age-27 campaign and remains a candidate to put up a big year in Boston. Even if he ends up with more typical results than a true breakout, and even accounting for robust market supply, his age could make him a $100MM player, in Petriello’s view.

Here are a few notes on some of the few remaining current free agents:

  • Reliever David Aardsma pushed his velocity up to 92 mph in a recent showcase in front of eighteen scouts, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (Twitter links). The 33-year-old has not seen MLB action since 2013, but worked to a 1.46 ERA with better than a strikeout per inning last year at Triple-A with the Cardinals organization. He is expected to choose a team in the near future.
  • Fellow righty Matt Albers also threw for teams recently, as already reported, and the Indians were among those in attendance, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. Cleveland also had a look at lefty Barry Zito, who threw for observers yesterday.
  • Speaking of prior reports on Albers and Zito, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle — who broke the news last night — tweets today that Astros owner Jim Crane says the team could bring in Zito with a spring training invite. Drellich cautions that it still seems unlikely that Zito will land with Houston.
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Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros Barry Zito David Aardsma Matt Albers Rick Porcello

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Padres Made “Aggressive Offer” For Cole Hamels

By Jeff Todd | February 11, 2015 at 7:59am CDT

Before agreeing to terms with James Shields, the Padres made an “aggressive offer” to the Phillies for lefty Cole Hamels, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. San Diego had long been said to be pursuing both arms.

Though the precise parameters of the offer are not known, Rosenthal indicates that Philadelphia may not feel that the San Diego system has a sufficiently promising single prospect asset to warrant Hamels. It is not clear whether the Padres have any continued interest in working out a deal, though it seems somewhat unlikely that sufficient payroll flexibility remains.

The Phillies prefer to deal with the Red Sox, per Rosenthal, hoping to land either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart in return. But Boston has not made such an offer, he adds, making a deal seem unlikely unless the Red Sox “reverse course.”

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Trade Candidate: Red Sox Outfielders

By Jeff Todd | February 10, 2015 at 11:53am CDT

With the free agent market wrapping up, there remains plenty of intrigue left in the offseason. In addition to extensions, several trade situations still seem worth watching over the spring.

One of those is the glut of outfielders in Boston. Even after dealing Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox have an arguably-untenable bunching of players lined up for outfield reps. Spring Training could go a long way toward sorting through the apparent bunching, to be sure, but good health and solid performances could force a deal.

Let’s take a look at the club’s candidates for the roster and/or trade block. (Note: I am not saying that all of these players are realistic trade candidates!) It’s one of the most interesting compilations of outfielders we are likely ever to see heading into spring.

Mookie Betts — He’d be the starting second baseman for many teams, but with the Red Sox he could theoretically slot in anywhere. Betts is an extremely flexible piece with plenty of long-term value, and there is no way he will be dealt in anything other than a blockbuster.

Jackie Bradley Jr. — Something of a forgotten man, Bradley remains a high-floor player with his top-end glove and would surely draw plenty of interest in trade. If he no longer has a firm place in the team’s long-term plans, Bradley would be perhaps the most obvious chip to be used to make a late run at adding another starter. He could still be stashed in Triple-A, of course, though fitting him on the big league roster appears to be difficult at this point.

Rusney Castillo – Boston will be anxious to see how Castillo’s skills transfer in a full big league season after his impressive, but short-lived, debut late last year. He is highly unlikely to be traded.

Allen Craig — On most clubs, Craig would probably spend most of his time at first or DH. But with David Ortiz and Mike Napoli on board, he lands in an awkward spot for the Red Sox. With a terrible 2014 and still-spendy contract weighing down his value, Craig’s spring will likely determine his fate.

Brock Holt — Last year’s emergent hero looks like a solid bet to function as a super-utility player for the club next year, though a sub-par spring could certainly change that. Though he figures in the outfield mix as well, Holt is probably best viewed primarily as a utility infielder and therefore may not really be a part of this roster crunch.

Daniel Nava — Though his production dipped somewhat last year after a strong 2013, Nava still showed a league-average bat and actually posted much-improved defensive metrics. He would figure to draw a good deal of interest: though he is out of options, Nava is owed a reasonable $1.85MM and is controllable for two more years.

Hanley Ramirez — Not even eligible to be dealt at this point, Ramirez is unquestionably going to break camp with the team barring injury. But whether he transitions well to the outfield will have a major role in the team’s plans.

Shane Victorino — His contract looked like a steal after 2013, but a tough 2014 campaign makes the $13MM left to go seem a bit high. A healthy Victorino could force his way into the starting mix, or could make himself attractive in a trade — particularly if a contending club were to suffer an injury during camp.

And that’s all before mentioning Bryce Brentz, another viable outfield candidate who got his first taste of the bigs last year. Even if Boston carries six of the above players on its Opening Day roster — with a view to using Holt, Betts, and even Ramirez as part-time infield options as well — that leaves two players that will need to end up somewhere other than the MLB roster. While Bradley could easily start off in the minors, it would be much more difficult to justify such a move for Betts.

It is not impossible that the team will enter the season with control over all of these names, especially if a DL stint or two intervenes to delay the inevitable, but the backlog makes a trade rather likely. I would look for the club to take a close look at its options early in the spring and maintain an opportunistic outlook in trade talks.

With several of the more likely trade candidates needing to show their health and/or productivity this spring, it could be a drawn-out process with many hypothetically viable trade permutations. Also, with the enticing but low-probability possibility of going after a top-end starter, carrying this deep group will allow GM Ben Cherington to explore all such avenues without fear of exposing a lack of depth.

All said, the Boston outfield situation is one of the most interesting in the game. It should provide plenty for fans to digest and debate over the coming months.

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Quick Hits: Tanaka, Sabathia, Royals, Cuba, Extensions

By Jeff Todd | February 10, 2015 at 8:09am CDT

Yankees starters Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia are generating positive reports, team pitching coach Larry Rothschild tells Mark Didtler of the Associated Press (via the LoHud Yankees Blog). Tanaka has “felt good” while going through a normal winter progression, says Rothschild. The pair’s progress this spring will be critical for the Yankees. If Tanaka’s partially torn UCL or Sabathia’s balky knee are problematic, the club would seem a prime candidate to add pitching.

  • In the final analysis, the Royals’ run with James Shields was an example of the team “beating the system,” according to Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. By selling high on Wil Myers to add Shields, Kansas City added the arm it needed before cashing him in for a new first-round pick through the qualifying offer system.
  • The Red Sox and Orioles have at least begun looking into the idea of playing a spring game in Cuba this year, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. While it appears unlikely that will happen in such short order, it certainly hints at how quickly things could move in that arena.
  • Signing players to big extensions is obviously risky, and rarely works out in the way that many expect when a deal is struck. But that does not mean that they fail to deliver good value, or that teams are irrational in reaching them, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus writes.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Kansas City Royals New York Yankees C.C. Sabathia James Shields Masahiro Tanaka

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