Though the Giants have had a rough start to the seasonĀ — their 4-9 record has them at the bottom of the NL West — new GM Bobby Evans isn’tĀ overly concerned yet, and an early-season tradeĀ for reinforcements is unlikely, he tells the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo.Ā “At this point youāre just going back to players that were offered you before that you didnāt deal for,”Ā Evans explains.Ā “Players who some teams are still trying to move that you took a pass on.”Ā Injuries have already been a problem for San Francisco, who saw Hunter Pence go down with a broken forearm in Spring Training and have already placed both Matt Cain and Jake Peavy on the 15-day disabled list. Cafardo notes, however, that in all three of the Giants’ recent World Series runs,Ā midseason acquisitions such as Cody Ross, Marco Scutaro and Peavy have played integral roles (I’d add Pat Burrell’s name to that list as well), and this year will likely be no different if the Giants are to ultimately turn things around.
Here’s more from Cafardo’s weekly Sunday Baseball Notes column…
- The Red Sox are in a catch-22 with Allen Craig, writes Cafardo. His poor 2014 performance has reduced him to a bench player, and no team is currently making much of an effort to acquire the first baseman/outfielder. However, if he doesn’t play much, he’s unlikely to look any better and boost his trade value.
- Right-hander John Lackey is hopeful that the Cardinals will approach him about a contract extension, Cafardo reports, but the team is currently thrilled to have him at just the league minimum.Ā Lackey’s preference may be to remain with the Cardinals, but he’ll likely pitch in 2016 whether it’s in St. Louis or elsewhere, as he recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he wouldn’t be pitchingĀ this year if he didn’t plan to play beyond 2015.
- One general manager who has inquired recently tells Cafardo that the Phillies’ asking price on Cole Hamels has not dropped one bit since the beginning of the season, despite the fact that Hamels has had two rough starts in his first three appearances of the year. Hamels has, somewhat incredibly, yielded seven homers in just 18 innings after surrendering only 14 in 204 2/3 frames last year. Of course, homer-to-flyball ratio tends to stabilize around 10-11 percent (Hamels’ career mark is 11.2 percent), and he’s currently sporting a remarkably high 36.8 percent HR/FB, so better days are almost certainly ahead for Hamels.
- An AL scout who has attended both of Scott Kazmir’s starts this season says he’s never seen the left-hander more confident or more impressive on the mound.Ā “Donāt know if itās because itās his walk year and he can become a free agent, but if he keeps this up most of the season, heās going to make himself a lot of money,”Ā said the scout. Of course, that’s just one scout’s take, but Kazmir has been electric to date. The 31-year-old has whiffed 18 hitters againstĀ five walks in 13 innings, and the 91.7 mph he’s averaged on his two-seamer inĀ those two starts is upĀ from last year’s average of 90.9, though it remains to be seen whether not that increase can be maintained.
- David Price’s hot start to the season makes it likely that his offseason price will land somewhere in theĀ vicinity of Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM and Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM pact, one Major League source opined to Cafardo.
- Former Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is helping Frank Viola III, the son of former AL Cy Young winner Frank Viola, develop a knuckleball, Cafardo writes. Viola III was aĀ 29th-round pick by the White Sox back in 2004, butĀ Tommy John surgery and knee surgery derailed his career, and he retired from the game in 2010. He returned in 2014 and pitched with the Blue Jays’ Class-A affiliates, and he’s now aiming to get a look in the independent leagues as heĀ attempts to work his way back into the game. Viola III has also worked with R.A. Dickey andĀ Hall of Famer Phil Niekro on honing is skill with the pitch.
stl_cards16
With the Cardinals nice pitching depth and a bunch of good arms set to be free-agents after the season with a lot of cash to spend, I don’t see any reason for the Cardinals to discuss an extension with Lackey.
billydaking
In the off-season, the Cardinals were considering reworking Lackey’s contract to give him another year. They like him, but there’s simply no reason to extend him now with his current contract.
However, their “nice pitching depth” consists of Marco Gonzales and a bunch of back-of-the-rotation starters (Cooney, Lyons, Whiting) and injury-scarred arms (Garcia, Gast). Most of their best pitchers in the system are in the lower minors. The Cardinals’ plan, obviously, is to let Martinez establish himself as a starter this year and graduate Gonzales next season. But if something happens with injuries or performance, a short extension to Lackey would make sense, especially since I suspect their priority for that cash to spend would be to spend it on Jason Heyward.
Brixton G.
Why would a rival GM expect Hamels’ price to drop after 2 bad starts?
dylanp5030
Exactly. The notion that someone would expect it to drop is silly.
Brixton G.
Plus in 1 of the 3 starts he made, he was brilliant, only allowing 1 run on 2 hits over 7.
frogbogg
Conversely…. should rival GMs’ opinion change of Tanaka after 2 good starts?
NoAZPhilsPhan
As much as changing opinions on Betts with a 209/271/395 start to the year.
Bill 21
Hey, the article above states a “Major League source opined to Cafardo” that Price’s hot start is money in the bank.
Seems WAY premature to me. Folks need to calm down on hot/slow starts. Playing well, and winning at the end of the season is what matters.
NickinIthaca
All of these things are being written about because Cafardo needs to fill print space….
Brixton G.
No, because he has an injury concern with his elbow. Hamels doesn’t.
SFGiants74
It is way to premature for the Giants to make a move. Aoki, Panik and Pagan have been setting the table nicely for the Gigantes. But, Pence is out, Posey has been mired in a slump, and Belt needs to make the adjustment to hitting to the opposite field. Once those guys come around, the Giants will be doing just fine.
flyerzfan12
Shocking that Cafardo would write about Hamels….again
And did anyone think Hamels’ value would change based on 3 starts this season? It shouldn’t take a GM or a 2 month old baby to figure that one out.
NoAZPhilsPhan
If Cafardo looked a little deeper he would know what all Phillies fans know…He is historically a slow starter…career splits…March/April ERA 4.12 WHIP 1.269…May ERA 3.63 WHIP 1.164 and he continues to get better each month…with August being ERA 2.70 WHIP 1.067 Sept. ticks up to ERA 2.97 WHIP 1.127. 2014 ERA’s by month 6.75, 3.71, 1.23, 1.94, 2.73, 1.96.
Last season was the same thing…people saying in April Cole is done…by June no team wanted to face him. He warms up when the weather does.
flyerzfan12
I miss when the same used to be said of Ryan Howard. And I’m not saying at all that Cole will follow the same sort of career path that Howard is. Strictly referring to heating up as the weather does.
frogbogg
Same thing was said for Sabathia. He would get off to slow starts. Career 4.18 ERA in April/Mar. 3.51 in May. Eventually all pitchers start a downward trend. Unless your nickname is The Rocket and you use special fuel.
NoAZPhilsPhan
Each year when he starts out slow, some writer, somewhere says “ut oh….he is losing it…this is the end of Hamels as we know him”. Year after year. Will he begin to decline? Sure. But 31 is not a nail in his coffin. Some decline rapidly at 32-33, some, i.e. Schilling, Johnson, Maddux, Glavine and many more pitched brilliantly at 35-36.
Bill 21
or your name is Jamie Moyer. He went 16-7 with 3.71 ERA at age 45 for Phillies.
Ray Mulligan
Another propaganda piece trying to drive down the asking price. The Phillies are never going to accept Craig, JBJ, Kelly, Vazquez, and some second rate prospect for him.
stymeedone
The Red Sox put themselves in this position by acquiring too many OF’s and not taking what they could get before the season started for their excess. Craig, Nava, Bradley and Castillo are all being affected by this. As long as they don’t play, their value can only go down.
frogbogg
Bradley is at AAA hitting .356. Castillo is injured. Craig and nava are getting regular ABs. You say too many… I say great depth.
stymeedone
They already knew JBJ could hit AAA pitching. Craig and Nava are getting Irregular AB’s off the bench. This is not helping their value.
rouscher
Really ridiculous that a GM thinks some weird FB/HR ratio stuff that has caused 2 bad starts will lower the price? Please, this is the problem with the Cole Hamels talks is that everyone blames Amaro but no one blames that other ridiculous GM’s that make these claims or come up with not real offers. ( ie: bostons MLB heavy offer)
Draven Moss
Boston’s offer was legit and fair, as Amaro said so himself. It just wasn’t the deal he was looking for, so he simply declined. He can afford to wait until the deadline, but then he will have to make the deal, or keep him.
Brixton G.
When did Amaro call the deal fair? The speculated names were Craig, Kelly, JBJ and Vazquez. I’m pretty sure he called it a “real offer,” not a fair one.
Draven Moss
I’m pretty sure a “real offer” is a fair one. Hence why the words are put in quotations. Otherwise, he should’ve said it wasn’t a good offer, oppose to a “real one”.
flyerzfan12
Agreed with this. If a GM says he got a “real offer” I definitely interpret that as meaning a fair offer or at least one he wouldn’t quickly dismiss.
However, if the offer was a combo of Craig, Kelly, JBJ, and Vazquez, I wouldn’t consider that a “real offer” and if Amaro does, then people give him too hard of a time in asking for too much.
Draven Moss
You are right, I wouldn’t consider that a fair offer either. Throw in a guy like Owens, E-Rod, or Margot and the offer would look like a much fairer one, but one that Amaro can probably get at the deadline, worse-case scenario as long as he is productive.
flyerzfan12
Boston can definitely put together a legit offer, but I don’t see any value in Craig. I’d take Kelly but obviously not as a headliner. JBJ is more of a 3rd or 4th piece nowadays which may make him more valuable for Boston to just hang on to and hope he develops into an average MLB hitter. Vazquez is nice but obviously his value has changed with the injury.
Send me an offer of Owens/E-Rod, Margot, and 1-2 other pieces at the deadline and I’d probably be on board.
Bill 21
I wouldn’t mind Craig as an everyday player for Phillies at 1B. But to eat Howard’s contract, then pay Craig and HOPE it works out seems insane.
flyerzfan12
At this point, the only way I take on Craig’s contract is if it’s the equivalent of sending cash to Boston in a Hamels deal to get better prospects in return. But I see no reason for Boston or the Phillies to do that.
Bill 21
Yea, pretty much. As much as I’d like to see him in there for a year or so, I also worry about getting stuck with another immovable contract. 3 years of Craig plus option at his pay rate just seems too much if his production does not return. Maybe he will go elsewhere and flourish, who knows…..
flyerzfan12
Exactly. He makes a lot less than Howard, but given Howard’s presence on the roster and that Craig turns 31 this summer..I’ll pass. If he was a few years younger and Howard wasn’t around, I’d say why not, give it a shot.
Brixton G.
I’m gonna disagree with you. A real offer is one that makes the team seem competitive to actually acquire a player. Offering 4 MLB players seems competitive, but not exactly a good offer.
Sleeper
If Hamels continues the trend for another month, then maybe, just maybe, there would be a little bit of a cause for concern, but if any GM really thought his asking price dropped after 3 starts where 2 were less than glamorous, they should be ashamed of themselves.
Bill 21
Hamels splits actually make him a good second half acquisition piece.
bobbleheadguru
So the “Price Tag” is $212.5MM for 7 years then. It is that precise.
As usual, Boras wins, as he was able to finagle a contract that was really worth only $10MM more than Lester (according to Fangraphs), into a contract that is perceived by the media as worth almost as much as Kershaw.
I would say the Tigers could pay Price $250MM over 50 years. fair?
Bill 21
The word fair? made me laugh.
john59
While I agree two bad starts could not be called a trend for Hamels’s future the fact that one bad start was against an AL team kind of shows a trend there.
Bill 21
Your logic is flawed. Hamels is a notoriously slow starter. Look at his ERA monthly splits from 2014;
April/March 6.75
May 3.71
June 1.23
July 1.94
August 2.73
Sept/Oct 1.96
NoAZPhilsPhan
LOL….I had that one loaded up from a few days ago when someone on another thread said his start was an indication of doom. Copy/paste is a godsend.
john59
Same reply: I was talking about Hamels vs AL teams stats. Probably he was a “slow” starter against AL teams for his whole career so far.
NoAZPhilsPhan
Then the Red Sox had better hope he doesn’t get traded to the Yankees because his “trend” against them is 4-1 2.68 era, 1.000 WHUP and 38 K’s in 37 IP. See how a small sample size works over a 9+ year career?
john59
Well, if he is traded to the Yankees won;t pitch against the Yankees…so, pull out his performance against Yankees and see what you get for Hamels against the other AL teams…
NoAZPhilsPhan
then we best eliminate his 2.25 against the ChiSox, 2.57 against the Tigers and 2.25 against the A’s then we remove the 12.71 against KC, 9.90 against Clevlend, 6.23 against the O’s and 6.97 against the Jays. I just hope that Price signs with the Nats because his 4.76 era and 1.4 WHIP against the Phillies clearly indicates a trend.
NoAZPhilsPhan
Really, so what trend does the two starts against the Nats show?
Bill 21
Should have read further down, looks like you beat me to the punch on monthly Hamels splits
john59
I was talking about Hamels vs AL teams trend.
Gland1 2
Two bad starts is not a trend but one bad start is?
Bill 21
Allen Craig is not cheap, either. $5.5M this year, then $9M, $13M, and $1M buyout/$13M option. That’s almost $30M for someone needing playing time to showcase his skills.
Wainwrights_Curveball
Wasn’t that long ago that they guy was putting up moderate numbers in STLs lineup. I think Craig makes sense to stay in the AL if the Red Sox can find a taker. His contract is really damaging him as much as it is damaging the Red Sox. They can’t buy him out, he obviously won’t restructure the deal, and no one wants to take his contract on without seeing him put up some 2012 numbers. I guess he has to hope someone gets injured so he can get the everyday PAs.
W.G
While I think most people agree it’s in the Phillies best interest to trade Hamels at some point, no one would believe their asking price would change this early on into the season.
The biggest problem with the Hamels situation is that no one truly knows what the Phillies are asking for him, and same with no one truly knows what teams have offered. It’ll be interesting to see what the return on Hamels is once he is traded, and how much it lines up with the reports Cafardo and others have done. My guess is he won’t fetch 3 top prospects, but more likely one top prospect, an young, above average MLB ready player and then one or two more B prospects, depending on which team is the receiving one.
Bill 21
Another misunderstood issue, right now the Phillies only want prospects because they haven’t yet dismantled the roster. Obtaining leftover players just clogs up the roster, removing spots from the kids.
Once some of the LT contract players (Howard, Utley, Papelbon, Ruiz, Lee) are gone, they could show more flexibility in accepting prospects plus a veteran or two. The more the holes open up, the more a possible Hamels trade can propel them into the rebuild.
Accepting a veteran player that can perform decently into an existing opening where there are not many internal options might help make a deal. But bloggers just coming up with “fair” value-for-value trade propositions for players that help the offering team but do not easily fit onto the Phillies roster is not.
I wish the rebuild would have gone faster, but I have no control over it, and won’t defend the slow pace.