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Odds and Ends: Colon, Byrd, Sosa, Wilkerson

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Some random links and whatnot for Saturday…

  • Joe Cowley says the White Sox have backed off on Bartolo Colon because he wants a two-year deal.  He believes the Royals are the frontrunner.
  • Rangers guru Jamey Newberg doesn’t think Marlon Byrd would be enough to get Matt Murton from the Cubs.
  • The Rangers might’ve entertained Sammy Sosa in a limited role, but he’s looking for 400-500 plate appearances.  Good luck with that!
  • Heard an unconfirmed whisper that the Red Sox may have some interest in Brad Wilkerson.
  • RotoAuthority takes a fantasy baseball look at Yovani Gallardo and Tim Lincecum.

Fernando Martinez May Be Key To Santana Deal

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Nothing groundbreaking here, but Ken Davidoff spoke to "an industry offical familiar with Minnesota’s trade discussions," who believes the inclusion of young outfielder Fernando Martinez could close the Johan Santana deal for the Mets.  Davidoff notes that some combination of Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey would have to be in there too.  Perhaps the sides will ultimately agree on Martinez and all the rest except for Gomez.

The Yankees and Red Sox remain in the mix, though the Yanks seem ready to move on.

What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks

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At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been.  Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.

Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005.  That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.

Let’s start with the Fish.  They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston.  Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07.  Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal.  Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards.  Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field.  Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.

Moving on to the Rangers.  Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise).  Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs.  Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira.  In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06.  Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels.  Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club.  And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell?  Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs? 

Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake.  The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job.  Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins.  That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell.  The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.   

The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo.  The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life.  Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman.  Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett?  Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.

By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy.  Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.

I’m dizzy.  Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation?  Any juicy consequences I missed?

Odds and Ends: Manny, Johan, Saarloos

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Here are some links I’ve rounded up for today.  I like the analogy that the Odds and Ends posts are like a pack of baseball cards.  You never know what you’ll get, and sometimes there’s gum.

Johan Santana Rumors

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It’s time for today’s dose of Johan Santana rumors and info.  It’s funny – I sense that everyone is getting sick of this stuff and would prefer a fresh rumor about, say, Brad Wilkerson. 

  • Lisa Kennelly wrote this morning that the Mets appear to be sticking to their guns with an offer of Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra.  However, she says the Mets prefer Erik Bedard over Santana since he will not require a huge extension.  The New York Times adds that the Mets "are not engaged in heavy discussions with the Twins."
  • MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone dives into the situation, summing up recent events and providing some insight from a roundtable that included Ken Rosenthal, Dan Graziano, and Jim Duquette.
  • Michael Silverman, with some help from Baseball America, evaluates each reported package of prospects that has been offered for Santana. 
  • An end may be in sight – the Twins lose leverage if teams truly start to pull out, writes Joe Christensen.

Yankees Still Involved On Santana

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UPDATE, 1-14-08 at 10:28pm: Hank says "there’s still a little back and forth" between the Yanks and Twins regarding Santana.  Ugh.

FROM 1-14-08 at 11:47am:

ESPN Radio’s Andrew Marchand reports that the Yankees have again pulled their offer for Johan Santana off the table.  Hank Steinbrenner could certainly change his mind again, but it seems to be down to the Red Sox and Mets.  And recent rumblings point to the Mets as the frontrunner.

The Yankees’ rotation currently shapes up as Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and probably Mike Mussina.  Ian Kennedy will be nipping at Mussina’s heels in Spring Training, while Kei Igawa’s status is unknown.  Keep in mind that Chamberlain pitched only 116 innings in 2007, most of them in the minors.  It would be surprising to see the Yankees take him past 150 innings this year.  What are your thoughts on the current Yankees rotation, sans Johan? 

Kotsay Traded To Braves For Devine, Richmond

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UPDATE, 1-14-08 at 5:07pm: Kotsay passed his physical; he’s a Brave.  The Braves also got most of his salary covered.  In return the A’s receive Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond.  Devine is a 24 year-old righty reliever with a 92-94mph sinker, according to Baseball America.  Richmond turns 22 in March; he’s the type of pitching prospect who doesn’t light up the radar gun but has "command of three pitches and advanced feel for pitching" according to BA.

FROM 1-13-08 at 12:11pm:

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports today via a Braves official that the Mark Kotsay trade is "still kind of a tentative thing."  He doesn’t take his physical until Monday, and there’s no deal until the Braves deem him healthy.  Slusser notes that the A’s acquisition of Kotsay several years ago was delayed by concerns over his health.

Slusser also says the A’s could receive an A ball pitcher in addition to Joey Devine.  She confirms that the Devine acquisition could be a precursor to a Huston Street trade, something many emailers have speculated.

Perrotto’s Latest: Sabathia, Varitek, Crede, Villone

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John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus checks in with his usual Sunday column.  He’s got some new hot stove material to consider.

  • Perrotto says the Indians are holding firm at an offer of four years plus an option for C.C. Sabathia.  As of a week ago, the Indians were said to have an offer on the table for him.  I suggested that the Tribe might top out around four years, $72MM plus an option for 2013.
  • Perrotto writes that "Boston is expected to sign catcher Jason Varitek to a two-year extension worth around $20 million."  Varitek could retire after that.
  • Perrotto suggests that Joe Crede is on the Giants’ radar if they don’t re-sign Pedro Feliz (hat tip South Side Sox).  Crede seems like he’ll be involved in one of those late Spring Training deals, given the need to prove his health.
  • The Yankees, Mets, and Pirates are interested in free agent lefty reliever Ron Villone.

Neal On Johan Santana Talks

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I recently named La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune as Rumor Royalty for the Twins.  He answered a few questions for MLBTR, so let’s kick it off.

MLBTR: Are you sick of the Johan Santana saga yet?  These talks have been dragging for a month after it seemed like something would get done at the Winter Meetings.  Who will cave in – the Twins, Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox?

Neal: Can’t wait for this to end! I think the Twins have sent out signals in recent weeks that they have lowered their demands some in order to get something done. I initially felt that the Red Sox had the best chance to land Santana because I kept hearing how well talks were going. Then I thought the Yankees would step up and make the deal because they have a greater need for a front line starter than Boston. But the Mets have a greater need than the Yankees, and as soon as the Twins indicated that they would accept a deal with the Mets without Jose Reyes being involved the Mets’ chances shot upward.

I don’t blame a team for holding out to get what they want, but Santana will require a hefty contract extension wherever he winds up. A team won’t empty its roster and take on salary. So get what you can and move on.

A’s Interested In Cameron

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Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports in with new info regarding an A’s target.  She says Mike Cameron is in their sights, and the A’s have had "several conversations" with his agent.  The A’s weren’t mentioned as a contender for Cameron last night; he is expected to land with the Brewers or Yankees.

Slusser also names a couple of available right-handed hitting free agent outfielders in Reggie Sanders and Rondell White.  Those are just examples, though – there is no current indication that the A’s have interest.

Slusser adds that there’s nothing to recent rumors of a Huston Street for Coco Crisp swap.  That one sounds like fan speculation (in fact I think I saw it in our comments somewhere).

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