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Some random rumors and links for Tuesday afternoon…

  • The Rockies signed Mark Redman to a minor league contract.  It makes sense to add some depth, but I like the team’s plan of using high-octane arms Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales instead of the safe veteran options.
  • Rick Sutcliffe’s thoughts on showboating.
  • At one time, it seemed that Jason Jennings would be primed for a big payday this winter.  He still could get a Marquis contract despite his 6.45 ERA in 18 starts.  But prospective buyers have to be concerned that he replied "I don’t know" when asked if he is healthy.  By the way, that link details a failed ballpark marriage proposal that resulted in popcorn being dumped on the guy’s head.  On the Jumbotron.
  • It wouldn’t be the Kansas City Star without an enormous pixellated close-up of the player in question.  This time it’s Mark Grudzielanek, who’s been extended through 2008.  Grudz wouldn’t have reached the 500 PAs needed to guarantee his $4MM option for ’08.
  • The Red Sox still haven’t spoken to Mike Lowell about a contract extension.  He wants to stay, and Nick Cafardo suggests Jermaine Dye could be the comp at two years, $22MM.  That’d be a major concession for Lowell, who’d be the best free agent third baseman unless A-Rod opts out.  One scenario has Kevin Youkilis moving to third base and some sort of league average first baseman stepping in, like the newly acquired Chris Carter.  Another has the Red Sox signing Alex Rodriguez.  The middle ground to those extremes is just to agree on a two-year deal with Lowell.  It’d make sense for the Red Sox to hold off on Lowell until they see what A-Rod does.   
  • The Eric Byrnes contract may serve as a model for Jose Guillen.
  • Tom Koch-Weser of STATS, Inc. has a new WHIFF profile of San Diego’s Chris Young.  A must-read as always.

Red Sox To Receive Chris Carter In Pena Deal

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UPDATE: Looks like my below tip on Desmond didn’t pan out – Svrluga says pitcher Emiliano Fruto is the player going to Arizona.  Fruto was received from Seattle in the Jose Vidro deal. 

UPDATE: A source tells me that 22 year-old defensive-minded shortstop Ian Desmond is rumored to be headed to Arizona to complete the deal.

Turns out the Wily Mo Pena trade was a three-team affair.  The Nationals received Pena.  The Red Sox will receive 25 year-old first baseman Chris Carter from Arizona.  Since he’s not on the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster, I believe the Sox can get Carter now.  That leaves a player to be named later going from Washington to Arizona.  Barry Svrluga has heard it’s someone not on Washington’s 40-man roster – perhaps Winston Abreu, Arnie Munoz, or Chris Booker.  The D’Backs are looking for relief help, but those all look like journeymen to me.

Carter is a respectable return for Pena.  According to Baseball America, he’s below average on defense but has the bat speed to become a middle of the order hitter.  He’s put up decent numbers in Triple A since 2006, though Tucson Electric Park definitely favors hitters.  Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein isn’t jazzed with Carter, labeling him a Quad-A type.  He’s definitely not appealing to scouts, but could one day make a decent DH.  Interestingly, Todd Helton tops Carter’s comparables list but Dan Johnson is second.

Wily Mo Pena Traded To Nationals

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UPDATE: The Red Sox traded Pena for cash considerations and a player to be named later, according to Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe.

According to Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald, Wily Mo Pena has been traded to the Nationals. Jim Bowden finally got his man again.

Assuming he can stay healthy, it’ll be interesting to see what Pena can do with 550 ABs.  For what it’s worth, PECOTA projected a line of .276/.336/.504 heading into this season.  Pena still has a one in five chance of becoming a star, according to Baseball Prospectus.

Red Sox Must Make Room For Buchholz

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Pitching phenom Clay Buchholz remains on track to start a game of Boston’s doubleheader against the Angels on Friday.  However, the Red Sox will first need to make room on the 40-man roster.  Active roster as well, as far as I can tell.  I am no roster expert, so correct me if I am wrong.  But it seems that moving Brendan Donnelly to the 60-day DL would open up room on the 40-man. Coco Crisp and David Ortiz’s injuries don’t seem to merit the 15-day DL, so they’d still need to find room on the active roster.

One option, according to both the Boston Globe and Hartford Courant, is to trade or DFA Wily Mo Pena.  DFAs are a good way to clear up roster space while buying time to make a decision on a player.  Pena has already cleared waivers and can be traded to any team.  I haven’t heard any recent rumors on interested teams though. 

There hasn’t been much talk of cutting Eric Hinske, though he’s a free agent after the season.  I suppose the reason the Sox want him over Wily Mo is that they want to promote Bobby Kielty but don’t need five active outfielders.

Graziano’s Latest: Andruw, Dunn, Fukudome

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Dan Graziano has a new article up regarding the free agent outfielder crop.  He spoke to two anonymous GMs.  Let’s take a look at some highlights.

  • Andruw Jones has an awful .216/.312/.418 line this year.  He’s been outdone by Shawn Green, Sammy Sosa, Jose Vidro, and Shannon Stewart in terms of OPS.  Nonetheless, Jones isn’t expected to come at a discount.  Scott Boras will just play up the defense, the RBIs, the career totals, whatever. 
  • Graziano says "it’s hard to see" the Reds picking up Adam Dunn’s $13MM option.  This would just be plain dumb on Wayne Krivsky’s part.  Given the $0.5MM buyout, it’s basically like signing Dunn to a one-year, $12.5MM deal.  How many teams would pass on a huge power bat on a no-risk one-year commitment?  If the Reds don’t exercise the option, it will be change for change’s sake.  And a bad decision.
  • Kosuke Fukudome is the dark horse, a possible impact right fielder from Japan.  He will not require a posting fee.  Graziano says the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and White Sox are among the teams scouting him.  More on Fukudome in a separate post.

Red Sox Not Talking Extension With Lowell

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UPDATE: Lowell talked to Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe, and denied the report below from the Boston Herald.  It doesn’t sound like any extension has been discussed recently.

Yesterday, third baseman Mike Lowell confirmed that his agent has had "casual conversations" with the Red Sox about a contract extension.  Lowell, 33, is hitting a solid .304/.355/.489 on the season. 

If he reaches free agency, Lowell would be on many teams’ radar.  There are really only four third baseman out there this winter: Lowell, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Lamb, and Pedro Feliz.  Someone might give Lamb a look in a Wes Helms kind of way.  And Feliz brings defense and pop, if not OBP.  But for the many teams who can’t afford A-Rod, Lowell would be the best option.  The Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Pirates, Dodgers, and Giants may all be looking for a third baseman this winter.

Lowell has earned $9MM the last couple of years, which at first appeared to be a burden but now looks reasonable.  I imagine the Red Sox would be careful with him, maybe offering 2/20 at most.  The alternatives would be to chase A-Rod or just move Kevin Youkilis to third and find a first baseman (which is easier to do).

Random Rumors: Erstad, Gagne, Podsednik

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Here’s a smattering of random rumors.

  • The Twins have tried and failed to acquire Mike Piazza, Jermaine Dye, and Kevin Mench.  Instead of Dye, the White Sox offered up 33 year-old outfielder Darin Erstad, he of the .671 OPS. The Twins passed.
  • Eric Gagne will apparently earn Type A status as a free agent, despite pitching only two innings in 2006.  Rob Bradford has the details.  This was apparently a big factor for the Red Sox in making the deal.
  • The Chicago Sun-Times debunks a rumor that the Cubs are trying to trade for Scott Podsednik.  How come I wasn’t told about this rumor previously?  Who started it?  I feel left out. 
  • The Pirates and Tigers are still talking about Jack Wilson.  Apparently the deadline version of the deal died when the Bucs asked for Craig Monroe.  Really?  The deal died over that guy?
  • Gordon Edes has a Major League source indicating that the Orioles are "the kind of team that might have interest" in Wily Mo Pena.  That’s not the same as saying that they do have interest, however.

Wily Mo Pena Clears Waivers

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According to Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald, Wily Mo Pena has cleared waivers without a claim.  It seems no team was willing to risk taking on the $580K owed to Pena this year.  Pena can now be freely traded to any team in baseball, though the players received would have to clear waivers too if on the 40-man roster.  The way around it would be to make them players to be named later.

I’m surprised no one put in a claim on Pena.  It can’t really be his salary, can it?  Teams waste more than that on players with no upside constantly.  Abraham Nunez makes almost $2MM this year.  Is it possible that Theo Epstein somehow convinced the 29 other GMs not to put in a claim?  That doesn’t seem possible either.  Why wouldn’t Jim Bowden put in a claim?  He loves Pena.  Why wouldn’t the White Sox put in a claim?  Even if a GM figured he couldn’t hammer out a deal with Epstein for Pena, why not put in a claim anyway just in case? 

Multiple Teams Looking At Kielty

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UPDATE: The Red Sox signed Kielty.

Bobby Kielty is a 31 year-old switch-hitting outfielder.  He can typically draw a few walks and hit lefties.  He can handle the corner outfield positions but hasn’t played center with any regularity since 2002.  Kielty is a free agent now after being released by the A’s.

According to the Boston Herald, Kielty is receiving interest from the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Astros.  The Herald mentions Kielty’s ties to New England, while the San Francisco Chronicle considers him the favorite.  Question: why would the Astros be interested?

Failed Trades

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Let’s take a look at some deals that almost happened yesterday.

Kyle Farnsworth for Bob Wickman.  This would’ve been fun, reunions with former teams for both players.  However, the Braves wanted the Yankees to pick up all of Farnsworth’s salary, apparently.  Brian Cashman didn’t want to make him go away that badly, and Wickman would probably be a nonfactor back in the AL.

Mariners acquire Mark Loretta.  Eh.  Let’s not overstate the abilities of Loretta.  It sounds like Tim Purpura wanted some kind of legitimate prospect for him.

Rockies send Jeff Baker and others to Tampa Bay for Dan Wheeler.  We can’t really evaluate this one without knowing who else would’ve been involved.  And the Rays don’t really have a place to play Baker; they’re already squeezed finding playing time for Jonny Gomes.  If Rocco Baldelli ever gets healthy they’ll really have a pickle.  I mentioned in a recent interview at D-Rays Bay – Wheeler would probably be one of the ten best relievers available if he was a free agent after the season.  The Rays can pump up his value and get a promising young pitcher next year, as the Royals did with Octavio Dotel.    

Brewers send Tony Gwynn Jr., Zach Jackson, and another minor league for Eric Gagne.  This could’ve been the difference-maker that Scott Linebrink ain’t in a tight NL Central race.  But it doesn’t seem like Doug Melvin got a chance to counter the Red Sox offer, so you can’t really fault him.

Red Sox send Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen to White Sox for Jermaine Dye.  Well, there has to be some statistical way to evaluate whether this pair beats two draft picks.  You’d have to know the attrition rates of first/second rounders, and get some scouts on Pena and Hansen to see if they can ever reach their potential.  If I was the Kenny Williams I probably would’ve made the deal.  I think Pena gets docked in value from where he was two years ago, but still has pretty much the same upside if you manage him right.  Who knows, maybe Williams will go after Pena again this winter.

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