Johan Santana Rumors
SI.com’s Jon Heyman and the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III recently weighed in on the Johan Santana situation.
- Neal says the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees have all had recent discussions with the Twins about Santana. He says the Twins have "stepped up their efforts" to make a deal before Spring Training.
- Heyman believes the Mets have taken the lead. He thinks it would take five or more prospects, and submission by the Red Sox and Yankees.
- Heyman says the Twins may prefer Carlos Gomez over Fernando Martinez. That would be good for the Mets, who do not want to part with Martinez.
Odds and Ends: Cano, Colon, Lowry
Here are some links I’ve rounded up this morning.
- In theory, Robinson Cano would be open to a long-term deal. River Ave. Blues recently took a look at how historically good Cano has been so far, and suggest the Yankees lowballed him with their arbitration submission.
- Baseball Prospectus’ Derek Jacques saw Bartolo Colon pitch in the Dominican League Finals, and lends his evaluation. Colon was not impressive, but not terrible. It doesn’t seem like he will get the two-year deal he wants.
- The Brewers will bring Abraham Nunez to camp. Versatile, but a drain on offense.
- Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune notes that the White Sox aren’t done yet. The Joe Crede situation should linger into spring. Gonzales also mentions that the Giants are "listening to offers for Noah Lowry."
- A factual look at whether Omar Minaya really stockpiles Latin American players.
- The Astros can’t settle their gaps with Mark Loretta or Jose Valverde, and Ed Wade expects the team to go to its first arbitration hearings in over a decade. Wade has set a deadline of this afternoon and will go to hearings otherwise. Loretta asking for $4.9MM seems particularly off.
- Matthew Cerrone takes an educated guess on the current Johan Santana situation.
- Some interesting quotes from XM Radio from Michael Cuddyer and Scott Boras, separately.
Odds and Ends: Howard, Aardsma, Odalis
Here we go, another random collection of links.
- The Red Sox inked a couple of former closers to minor league deals: Dan Kolb and Dan Miceli. No need to run out and pick them up for your fantasy team. I think Papelbon is secure.
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Red Sox are hunting for a lefty bench bat. Tony Clark emailed him to say he’d love a return to Boston, but Cafardo says he’s not on the top of the list. Clark hit .207/.265/.291 for the ’02 Sox.
- A few comments from Pat Gillick on the Ryan Howard situation. He says the Phillies are "open to anything." Gillick also claimed arbitration hearings really aren’t all that contentious. I guess that could be true, I’ve never been in the room for one.
- The official acquisition of Octavio Dotel meant the White Sox DFA’d David Aardsma. Aardsma, 26, has whiffed about a batter per inning over his last two seasons. He has to have a little bit of trade value.
- Impacto Deportivo says the Mets will meet with Odalis Perez. Two left-handed O. Perez’s might confuse opponents, giving the Mets an advantage. Really though it’s a good idea for Omar to stockpile some arms even if Odalis doesn’t have much left. One thing’s for sure, he won’t be earning $7.75MM again. (Hat tip to MetsBlog).
- Looking for an MLBTR reader forum? I offer you our Facebook discussion board.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Boras, Murton, Marquis, Clark
Ken Rosenthal is here to hopefully rescue what’s been a slow day for rumors.
- Rosenthal points out that it seems Scott Boras has been more flexible with his clients’ contracts this year, perhaps even as the result of his "failures" with Alex Rodriguez and Kenny Rogers. A new, gentler Boras? Wait til Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday, and Prince Fielder reach free agency.
- The Padres are targeting Matt Murton for left field, a notion that gels with Kevin Towers’ stated quest to acquire a corner outfielder via trade. Plus, Towers gets along well with Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Not sure how the teams would match up, unless things expand to include Khalil Greene. The Cubs would have to be sure they don’t need Murton for other deals or because of other deals.
- Rosenthal agrees with the recent rumor that the Orioles will decide whether to trade Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts by month’s end. He notes that Cubs starter Jason Marquis actually does have trade value, and could be part of a package for Roberts. Other teams are interested in him too – go figure. Innings are innings I guess. Marquis, 29, is owed $16.25MM over the 2008-09 seasons.
- An MLBTR commenter questioned the other day why Troy Tulowitzki‘s deal was said to top Grady Sizemore‘s as the record holder for a player with less than two years service time. The commenter wondered why Brian McCann wasn’t part of the discussion – he signed for more than Sizemore ($26.8MM) in March of ’07 with about a season and a half under his belt. Anyone know why McCann’s name doesn’t come up in this discussion?
- One of Rosenthal’s sources believes progress has been made on a long-term pact with Holliday, and the recent two-year deal is a positive sign.
- Teams inquiring on Tony Clark: Mariners, Giants, and Red Sox. Clark has been mentioned as a Giants target before.
Odds and Ends: Hinske, Doumit, Colon, Greene
It’s up to an impressive 5.7 degrees where I am, but I still don’t think I’ll be going outside much today. Hence, some odds and ends.
- Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald believes Eric Hinske might sign with the Diamondbacks this week. The 30 year-old former ROY has a career line of .255/.336/.434, with much better work against righties.
- John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus says the Red Sox are interested in the Pirates’ Ryan Doumit. However Perrotto says the Bucs are reluctant to trade the versatile Doumit, who turns 27 in April. Only past Doumit rumor I can find was from Will Carroll in May of ’06, saying he and Oliver Perez were being dangled to the Phillies.
- Perrotto believes the Royals could sign Bartolo Colon if he’ll take a one-year deal; that may be true for several clubs. Paul Hoynes reports that the Indians watched Colon pitch, but weren’t impressed with his sub-90 velocity. Hoynes says Kris Benson will have another throwing session and the Tribe will be in attendance.
- According to Marc Topkin, the Rays are talking with lefty reliever Trever Miller. The two sides haven’t agreed on the term yet.
- Padres GM Kevin Towers commented about the team’s rejected long-term overtures toward shortstop Khalil Greene. Towers brought a three or four year proposal to Greene but does not expect anything to get done. He stated Greene’s possible desire to be on the East Coast as a factor.
- Vince Gennaro does an economic analysis of the Johan Santana rumors, indicating that the acquisition makes the most sense for the Mets.
Red Sox Interested In Brad Wilkerson
Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald was able to confirm our rumor from yesterday, that the Red Sox have some interest in Brad Wilkerson. Bradford says Wilkerson, a Boras client, is looking for three years and $21MM. I don’t think the Sox would go anywhere near that price.
The same source told me on Friday that the Yankees, A’s, and Mariners have expressed interest in Wilkerson as well. Wilkerson, 30, hit .234/.319/.467 for the Rangers last year in 119 games (doing most of his damage at home). In his career he has played all three outfield positions plus first base.
Odds and Ends: Colon, Byrd, Sosa, Wilkerson
Some random links and whatnot for Saturday…
- Joe Cowley says the White Sox have backed off on Bartolo Colon because he wants a two-year deal. He believes the Royals are the frontrunner.
- Rangers guru Jamey Newberg doesn’t think Marlon Byrd would be enough to get Matt Murton from the Cubs.
- The Rangers might’ve entertained Sammy Sosa in a limited role, but he’s looking for 400-500 plate appearances. Good luck with that!
- Heard an unconfirmed whisper that the Red Sox may have some interest in Brad Wilkerson.
- RotoAuthority takes a fantasy baseball look at Yovani Gallardo and Tim Lincecum.
Fernando Martinez May Be Key To Santana Deal
Nothing groundbreaking here, but Ken Davidoff spoke to "an industry offical familiar with Minnesota’s trade discussions," who believes the inclusion of young outfielder Fernando Martinez could close the Johan Santana deal for the Mets. Davidoff notes that some combination of Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey would have to be in there too. Perhaps the sides will ultimately agree on Martinez and all the rest except for Gomez.
The Yankees and Red Sox remain in the mix, though the Yanks seem ready to move on.
What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks
At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been. Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.
Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005. That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.
Let’s start with the Fish. They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston. Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07. Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal. Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards. Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field. Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.
Moving on to the Rangers. Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise). Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs. Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira. In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06. Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels. Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club. And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell? Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs?
Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake. The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job. Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins. That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell. The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.
The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo. The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life. Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman. Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett? Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.
By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy. Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.
I’m dizzy. Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation? Any juicy consequences I missed?
Odds and Ends: Manny, Johan, Saarloos
Here are some links I’ve rounded up for today. I like the analogy that the Odds and Ends posts are like a pack of baseball cards. You never know what you’ll get, and sometimes there’s gum.
- UmpBump explains why they expect Manny Ramirez to retire a Red Sox.
- Matthew Cerrone provides some new Johan Santana musings.
- RotoAuthority (which I write) ranks the 78 starting pitchers you should consider in your fantasy baseball mixed league.
- The A’s, admitting they need bodies, will bring Kirk Saarloos back on a minor league invite. He’ll be 29 in May; his claim to fame is winning ten games for the ’05 A’s.
- The Rangers will need to make roster space for Jason Jennings; could Jason Botts be DFA’d?